Thursday, February 19, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/19

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.19%) this morning are down -0.07% due to weakness in energy producers as crude oil fell, while European stocks are up +0.46% at a 6-1/2 year high after the Greek government submitted a request to extend the availability of bailout funds for 6 months. Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to assess the request later today and if they see room for an agreement the finance ministers will meet tomorrow. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.36%, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia -0.19%, India +0.48%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 14-3/4 year high on upbeat trade data after Japan Jan exports rose by the most in 14 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -3.93%) is down -3.62% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -2.04%) is down -1.85% at a 1-week low ahead of weekly EIA data that may show U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a sixth week to a record high. Apr gold (GCJ15 +1.74%) is up +1.48%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.42%) is down -0.23%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.05%) are down -3 ticks.
The Japan Jan trade balance widened to a -1.177 trillion yen deficit, bigger than expectations of -1.681 trillion yen and the largest deficit in 10 months. Jan exports rose +17.0% y/y, better than expectations of +13.5% y/y and the biggest increase in 14 months. Jan imports fell -9.0% y/y, more than expectations of -4.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 5 years.
Japan Jan nationwide department store sales fell -2.8% y/y, the tenth consecutive month sales have declined.
UK Feb CBI trends total orders rose +6 to 10, better than expectations of 2 to 6 and the highest in 6 months. Feb CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +14 to 8, more than expectations of -1 to -7 and the highest in 10 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial claims report is expected to show a -14,000 decline to 290,000. Today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a small +6,000 rise to 2.360 million after last week’s -51,000 decline to 2.354 million. Today’s Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to show a +2.7 point increase to 9.0, stabilizing after January’s -18.0 point plunge to 6.3. Today’s Jan leading indicators index is expected to show a decent increase of +0.3%, adding to December’s strong increase of +0.5%.
There are 18 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Wal-Mart (consensus $1.54), Hormel Foods (0.64), Discovery Communications (0.45), Priceline (10.05), Newmont Mining (0.12), Consolidated Edison (0.55), Nordstrom (1.35). Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference on Tue-Thu, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Halliburton (HAL -1.07%) is down 2% and Exxon Mobil (XOM -2.19%) slid over 1% in pre-market trading as crude oil prices fell.
Hormel Foods (HRL +0.77%) reported Q1 EPS of 69 cents, well above consensus of 64 cents.
Priceline.com (PCLN +0.18%) reported Q4 EPS of $10.85, higher than consensus of $10.05.
Southwest Airlines (LUV +2.25%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at BofA/Merril Lynch with a price target of $52.
Regeneron (REGN +0.40%) reported positive results for its Eylea injection in patients with diabetic macular edema.
EOG Resources (EOG -1.22%) reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, well below consensus of $1.02.
Marathon Oil (MRO -2.06%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0, less than consensus of 3 cents.
Sunoco Logistics (SXL +1.63%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -80 cents, well below consensus of a 37 cent profit.
Avis Budget (CAR -0.57%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 23 cents, above consensus of 20 cents.
Marriott (MAR +0.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 65 cents.
Convergys (CVG +0.05%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 52 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents.
Synopsys (SNPS +0.94%) reported Q1 EPS of 80 cents, well above consensus of 62 cents.
Fidelity National (FNF -1.25%) reported Q4 EPS of 50 cents, higher than consensus of 47 cents.
Williams (WMB -1.95%) reported Q4 EPS of 26 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.
ARRIS (ARRS +5.10%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, well above consensus of 61 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.19%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.07%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.10%, Nasdaq +0.13%. Bearish factors included (1) the -2.0% decline in U.S. Jan housing starts to 1.065 million, weaker than expectations of -1.7% to 1.070 million, and (2) the +0.2% increase in U.S. Jan industrial production, weaker than expectations of +0.3%. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes signaled policy makers may be inclined to keep interest rates lower for longer amid risks facing the economy.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.05%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday rebounded from a 1-1/4 month low and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +24.50, FVH5 +16.75. Bullish factors included (1) a lack of inflation at the wholesale level after the U.S. Jan final-demand PPI index fell -0.8% m/m, the largest monthly decline since the data series began in 2009, and (2) the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes stating that policy makers were inclined to keep the Fed funds rate near zero “for a longer time.”
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) this morning is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.19%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.137 (+0.15%), EUR/USD -0.00138 (-0.12%), USD/JPY -0.451 (-0.38%). A bullish factor for the dollar was a lack of inflation pressures after the Jan PPI final-demand fell more than expected. The dollar fell back from it best levels after the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes signaled that Fed members may be inclined to delay raising interest rates due to risks facing the economy.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -3.93%) this morning is down -$1.89 a barrel (-3.62%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -2.04%) is down -0.0291 (-1.85%) at a 1-week low. Mar crude and Mar gasoline on Wednesday closed lower: CLH5 -1.39 (-2.60%), RBH5 -0.0311 (-1.96%). Negative factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) expectations that Thursday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies rose +3.0 million bbl to a record high of 420 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/19/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -14,000 to 290,000, previous +25,000 to 304,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +6,000 to 2.360 million, previous 51,000 to 2.354 million.
1000 ETFeb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +2.7 to 9.0, Jan -18.0 to 6.3.
1000 ETJan leading indicators expected +0.3%, Dec +0.5%.
1100 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $15 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Feb 24-26.
JPN0000 ETRevised Japan Dec leading index CI, previous +1.3 to 105.2. Revised Dc coincident index, previous +1.5 to 110.7.
0030 ETJapan Jan nationwide department store sales, Dec -1.7% y/y.
2035 ETJapan Feb Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 52.5, Jan 52.2.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Dec current account, Nov +24.6 billion euros (nsa).
1000 ETEurozone Feb consumer confidence expected +1.0 to -7.5, Jan -8.5.
UK0600 ETUK Feb CBI trends total orders expected +2 to 6, Jan 4. Feb CBI trends selling prices expected -1 to -7, Jan -6.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/19/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
DIRECTVDTV USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.411
Noble Energy IncNBL USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.344
Quanta Services IncPWR USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.514
SCANA CorpSCG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.737
Denbury Resources IncDNR USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.233
Wal-Mart Stores IncWMT USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.544
Hormel Foods CorpHRL USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.644
Patterson Cos IncPDCO USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.594
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.384
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.447
Wal-Mart Stores IncWMT US7:00Q4 2015 Earnings Call - Pre - RecordedQ4 2015
Priceline Group Inc/ThePCLN US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 201410.051
Priceline Group Inc/ThePCLN US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Emerson Electric CoEMR US9:00Investor MeetingY 2015
EOG Resources IncEOG US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Marathon Oil CorpMRO US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Hormel Foods CorpHRL US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Quanta Services IncPWR US9:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US9:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Noble Energy IncNBL US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Marriott International Inc/MDMAR US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Patterson Cos IncPDCO US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Denbury Resources IncDNR US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
DIRECTVDTV US14:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
SCANA CorpSCG US15:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Intuit IncINTU US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Nordstrom IncJWN US16:45Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Frontier Communications CorpFTR US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Newmont Mining CorpNEM USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.118
Intuit IncINTU USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2015-0.126
Mohawk Industries IncMHK USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.204
Frontier Communications CorpFTR USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.054
Public StoragePSA USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.201
Consolidated Edison IncED USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.549
Nordstrom IncJWN USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.349
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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