Wednesday, February 5, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/5

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.19%) this morning are down -0.14% ahead of this morning's Jan ADP employment change, while European stocks are up +0.17% after most emerging-market stocks rose. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.23%, Hong Kong -0.60%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan -2.34%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea +0.30%, India +0.24%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rebounded from Tuesday's rout after a +19% surge in Panasonic led Japanese stocks higher as Japan's biggest maker of consumer electronics reported Q3 profit than was +68% higher than market estimates. Gains in European equities were muted and the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 6-month low of 1.62% after Eurozone Dec retail sales plunged -1.6% m/m, the biggest monthly decline in 2-1/2 years, which bolstered the case for more ECB stimulus. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.59%) is up +0.72%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.30%) is up +0.41%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.62%) is up +0.58%. March copper (HGH14 +0.42%) is up +0.47%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.46%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.10%) are up +2 ticks.
Eurozone Dec retail sales fell -1.6% m/m, more than double expectations of a -0.7% m/m drop and the largest monthly decline in 2-1/2 years. On an annual basis, Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y.
The Eurozone Jan PMI composite was revised downward to 52.9 from the originally reported 53.2, but still was the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years.
The German Jan PMI services was revised downward to 53.1 from the originally reported 53.6.
The UK Jan PMI services unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of a +0.2 point increase to 59.0.
The UK Jan BRC shop price index fell -1.0% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.7% y/y and the largest drop since data began in 2006.
Japan Dec labor cash earnings rose +0.8% y/y, the biggest increase in 1-3/4 years, and Nov was revised up to +0.6% y/y from the originally reported +0.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan ADP employment report is expected to show an increase of +190,000, falling back a bit from December’s strong report of +238,000. Today’s Jan ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show an increase of +0.7 points to 53.7, recovering most of the -0.9 point decline to 53.0 seen in December. There are 26 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Time Warner (consensus $1.15), Humana (0.92), Nasdaq OMX (0.67), Merck (0.89), ADP (0.77), Coca-Cola (0.52), Ralph Lauren (2.51), Allstate (1.37), Walt Disney (0.92), Tesoro (0.31), Marathon Oil (0.71), Prudential Financial (2.23).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Defexpo India 2014 on Wed, Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Merck (MRK +2.75%) reported Q4 EPS of 88 cents, below consensus of 89 cents.
NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ +1.78%) reported Q4 EPS of 72 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents.
Humana (HUM +1.15%) reported Q4 EPS of 80 cents, well below consensus of 92 cents.
Time Warner (TWX +1.43%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.17, higher than consensus of $1.15.
The WSJ reported that oil firms Hess (HES +1.14%) , Whiting Petroleum (WLL +0.99%) and Marathon Oil (MRO +0.87%) all face civil penalties for crude-by-rail violations.
Genworth (GNW +1.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 38 cents, well above consensus of 30 cents.
BlackRock reported a 5.3% passive stake in LinkedIn (LNKD -1.43%) and a 5.5% passive stake in General Motors (GM +1.62%) .
C.H. Robinson (CHRW +1.58%) fell 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 62 cents, below consensus of 68 cents.
DeVry (DV +2.24%) reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 80 cents, above consensus of 73 cents.
Aflac (AFL +1.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, better than consensus of $1.39.
Ameriprise (AMP +2.04%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.87, higher than consensus of $1.81.
Myriad Genetics (MYGN -0.88%) jumped 18% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 66 cents, well above consensus of 46 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $2.09-$2.14 from $1.92-$1.97, above consensus of $1.97.
Gilead (GILD +4.05%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, stronger than consensus of 50 cents.
CSG Systems (CSGS +0.14%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.05-$2.17, below consensus of $2.27.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +3.46%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.10, better than consensus of $1.07.
Unum Group (UNM +1.92%) reported Q4 EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.19%) this morning are down -2.50 points (-0.14%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday rebounded from Monday’s plunge and closed higher after a recovery in emerging-market currencies eased concern about the turmoil in emerging markets. According to data from EPFR, global investors pulled $6.3 billion from developing-market equities in the week through Jan 29, the biggest outflow since Aug 2011. Another supportive factor for stocks was the CBO’s forecast that the 2014 U.S. budget deficit will fall to a 7-year low of $514 billion from $680 billion last year. Closes: S&P 500 +0.76%, Dow Jones +0.47%, Nasdaq 100 +0.86%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.10%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower after a rally in emerging-market currencies and equities reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. T-note prices also fell on the comment from Richmond Fed President Lacker that the plunge in global stock markets hasn’t “affected the outlook for labor market conditions materially at this point” and probably won’t deter the Fed from further tapering QE3. Closes: TYH4 -9.00, FVH4 -3.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.047 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0002 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.47 (-0.46%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly higher. EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi was said to consider ending the sterilization of Eurozone debt-crisis bond purchases, which would boost liquidity in the financial system and would be euro-negative. USD/JPY rallied as strength in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.112 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00069 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +0.67 (+0.66%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.59%) this morning is up +70 cents (+0.72%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.30%) is up +0.0106 (+0.41%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Crude gained on the upward rebound in the stock market after Monday’s plunge and on the consensus for Wednesday’s weekly EIA distillate inventories to fall -2.5 million bbl as the colder-than-normal U.S. winter boosts heating oil demand. Gasoline closed lower on expectations that Wednesday’s EIA gasoline supplies will climb +1.15 million bbl. Closes: CLH4 +0.76 (+0.79%), RBH4 -0.0038 (-0.15%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/05/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.2% with purchase sub-index +1.5% and refi sub-index -2.2%.
0815 ETJan ADP employment change expected +187,000, Dec +238,000.
0900 ETTreasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $30 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned in the Feds quarterly refunding Feb 11-13.
1000 ETJan ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 53.7, Dec -0.9 to 53.0.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1230 ETPhiladelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook at the Simon Business Schools 35th Annual Economic Seminar.
1340 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook to the Rotary Club of Birmingham.
GER0355 ETRevised German Jan PMI services, previous 53.6.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Jan PMI composite, previous 53.2.
0500 ETEurozone Dec retail sales expected -0.7% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Nov +1.4% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Jan PMI services expected +0.2 to 59.0, Dec 58.8.
CHIn/aChinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/05/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Time Warner IncTWX US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.151
Cognizant Technology Solutions CorpCTSH US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.149
Humana IncHUM US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.917
Fastenal CoFAST US7:00January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.667
Merck & Co IncMRK US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.886
Automatic Data Processing IncADP US7:30Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.77
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.521
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL US7:30Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.059
Ralph Lauren CorpRL US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.508
Cognizant Technology Solutions CorpCTSH US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Genworth Financial IncGNW US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Merck & Co IncMRK US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Automatic Data Processing IncADP US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Spectra Energy CorpSE US8:30Investor MeetingY 2014
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRW US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Aflac IncAFL US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Allergan Inc/United StatesAGN US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.339
AGL Resources IncGAS US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Ralph Lauren CorpRL US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Humana IncHUM US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL US9:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Unum GroupUNM US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Time Warner IncTWX US10:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Equity ResidentialEQR US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Allergan Inc/United StatesAGN US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Macerich Co/TheMAC US13:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
American Express CoAXP US14:30Financial Community MeetingY 2014
CBRE Group IncCBG US16:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.66
Lincoln National CorpLNC US16:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.275
Fiserv IncFISV US16:01Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.8
Kimco Realty CorpKIM US16:01Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.332
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINF US16:05Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.728
Allstate Corp/TheALL US16:05Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.373
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US16:15Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.915
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US16:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Stericycle IncSRCL US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
XL Group PLCXL US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
CBRE Group IncCBG US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Fiserv IncFISV US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY US18:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.323
Tesoro CorpTSO USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.313
Stericycle IncSRCL USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.963
XL Group PLCXL USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.815
Marathon Oil CorpMRO USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.709
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.515
FMC CorpFMC USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.924
Prudential Financial IncPRU USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20132.228
Assurant IncAIZ USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.428
Walgreen CoWAG USJanuary 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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