Thursday, May 2nd, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.29% and European stocks are down -0.04% ahead of an expected 25 bp rate cut by the ECB later this morning. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.76%, Hong Kong -0.30%, China +0.10%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia -0.70%, Singapore +1.02%, South Korea -0.31%, India +1.19%. Spain's 10-year bond yield fell to 4.08%, a 2-1/2 year low, while France's 10-year bond yield fell to 1.69%, a record low on expectations the ECB will cut the benchmark rate to a record low of 0.50% today. Commodity prices are higher. June WTI crude oil (CLM13 +0.54%) is up +0.58%, June gasoline (RBM13 +0.26%) is up +0.35%, June natural gas (NGM13 +0.55%) is up +0.67%, June gold (GCM13 +0.80%) is up +0.61%, July copper (HGN13 +1.46%) is up +1.36%. Agriculture prices are higher as well. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) is up +0.23%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01%. June 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNM13 -0.01%) are little changed, down -0.5 of a tick.The German Apr PMI manufacturing was unexpectedly revised up +0.2 points to 48.1 from 47.9 and the Eurozone Apr PMI manufacturing was also revised up +0.2 points to 46.7 from the originally reported 46.5.
The UK Apr PMI construction climbed +2.2 points to 49.4, stronger than expectations of 48.0.
The French Treasury sold 4.02 billion euros of 10-year debt at an average yield of 1.81%, the lowest on record.
The China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 points to 50.4, slightly weaker than expectations of 50.5.
Japan's Apr monetary base surged +23.1% y/y, the most in 2 years and stronger than a +19.8% y/y increase in Mar as the BOJ implements its aggressive QE program and increases its bond purchases.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +6,000 to 345,000, reversing part of last week’s decline of -16,000 to 339,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to rise +30,000 to 3.030 million, regaining about one-third of last week’s decline of -93,000 to 3.000 million. Today’s March U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow mildly to -$42.3 billion from -$43.0 billion in February. The European Central Bank today is expected to cut its refinancing rate by 25 bp to 0.50%, which would be the first rate cut since last July.Today is a another very busy earnings day with 34 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to release earnings (please see stock calendar below). Key reports include CME Group, Kellogg, Kraft, Gilead Sciences, and AIG. Major conferences are over for the week.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CME Group (CME -1.20%) reported Q1 EPS of 73 cents, right on expectations.Internationap Paper (IP -2.32%) reported Q1 EPS of 65 cents, below consensus of 74 cents.
Cardinal Health (CAH -0.63%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.20, well ahead of expectations of 96 cents.
Marsh & McLennan (MMC -0.47%) reported Q1 EPS of 75 cents, stronger than consensus of 69 cents.
Cigna CI reported Q1 (EPS -0.56%) of $1.72, better than consensus of $1.44.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX -0.76%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.44, stronger than consensus of $1.35.
Integrys Energy (TEG -0.81%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.76, better than consensus of $1.61.
Archer Daniels (ADM -1.06%) said it will acquire GrainCorp for $3.4 billion Austrailian dollars.
Kindred Healthcare (KND -1.33%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 49 cents, higher than consensus of 37 cents.
Bob Evans Farms (BOBE -1.71%) announced that it will restate Q3 earnings results after it identified an error regarding the treatment of intercompany accounts in calculating the net book value of the Mimi's Cafe business segment assets held for sale as recorded by the company in the Q3 of fiscal 2013.
Murphy Oil (MUR -2.08%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.08, stronger than consensus of 97 cents.
PharMerica (PMC -0.85%) reported Q1 EPS of 35 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Marriott (MAR -1.35%) reported Q1 EPS of 43 cents, better than consensus of 40 cents, and raised its guidance on Q2 to 55-59 cents, higher than consensus of 55 cents.
PHH Corp. (PHH -1.38%) reported Q1 EPS of 90 cents, nearly double consensus of 46 cents.
RenaissanceRe (RNR -0.40%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.92, well ahead of consensus of $3.06.
Lincoln National (LNC -2.03%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.02, weaker than consensus of $1.10.
ManTech (MANT -2.55%) reported Q1 EPS of 54 cents, below consensus of 58 cents.
Con-way (CNW -3.02%) reported Q1 EPS of 19 cents, weaker than consensus of 27 cents.
Archer Daniels (ADM -1.06%) reported Q1 EPS of 48c, weaker than consensus of 52 cents.
Visa (V -1.45%) reported Q2 EPS pf $1.92, better than consensus of $1.81.
MetLife (MET -1.51%) reported Q1 operating EPS of $1.48, stronger than consensus of $1.30.
Facebook (FB -1.22%) fell over 1% in after-hour trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, weaker than consensus of 13 cents.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS unch) reported Q1 EPS of 71 cents, higher than consensus of 67 cents.
CBS (CBS +1.35%) reported Q1 EPS of 73 cents, better than consensus of68 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.24%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.29%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower on signs the global economy is slowing. The China Apr ISM manufacturing index fell -0.3 to 50.6 vs. expectations of -0.2 to 50.7 and the Apr ADP employment change showed less hiring than expected (+119,000 versus expectations of +150,000). Supportive factors included the Fed's post-FOMC statement that it will maintain its QE3 program and the Apr ISM manufacturing index that slowed less than expected (-0.6 to 50.7 vs. expectations of -0.8 to 50.5). Closes: S&P 500 -0.93%, Dow Jones -0.94%, Nasdaq 100 -0.49%.June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.01%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a new contract high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-1/2 month low of 1.612% on concerns the global economy is slowing. China's manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in Apr and the Apr ADP employment change showed companies hired fewer workers than expected. Another positive factor for Treasuries was the post-FOMC statement that said the Fed will maintain its bond buying at a pace of $85 billion a month and will continue "until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially." Closes: TYM3 +8.0, FVM3 +3.5.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) this morning is up +0.187 (+0.23%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.13%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01 (-0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday posted a 2-month low and closed lower after the smaller-than-expected increase in the Apr ADP employment change fueled speculation the Fed will maintain its dollar-negative QE3 program. The dollar recovered from its worst levels after the Apr ISM manufacturing index weakened less than expected. EUR/USD climbed to a 2-month high on short covering ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting in which the market expects a 25 bp rate cut. Closes: Dollar index -0.262 (-0.32%), EUR/USD +0.00119 (+0.09%), USD/JPY -0.049 (-0.05%).
June WTI crude oil (CLM13 +0.54%) this morning is up +0.53 (+0.58%) and June gasoline (RBM13 +0.26%) is up +0.0094 (+0.35%). June crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply lower with June gasoline falling to a 4-1/2 month low. Concerns over global growth hammered energy prices after the China Apr manufacturing PMI fell more than expected and the Apr ADP employment change showed a smaller-than-expected increase in employment. In addition, weekly EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories for the week ended April 26 soared +6.696 mln bbl to 395.3 mln bbl, more than expectations of a +1.1 million bbl build, to the highest level since records began in 1982. Closes: CLM3 -2.43 (-2.60%), RBM3 -0.0827 (-2.95%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/02/2013
| US | 0730 ET | Apr Challenger job cuts, Mar +30.0% y/y. |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 345,000, previous -16,000 to 339,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +30,000 to 3.030 million, previous -93,000 to 3.000 mln. | |
| 0830 ET | Mar trade balance expected -$42.3 billion, Feb -$43.0 billion. | |
| 0830 ET | Preliminary Q1 non-farm productivity expected 1.0%, Q4 -1.9%. Q1 unit labor costs expected +0.7%, Q4 +4.6%. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Apr PMI manufacturing expected no change at 47.9. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Apr PMI manufacturing expected no change at 46.5. |
| 0745 ET | ECB announces interest rate decision (expected -0.25 point cut in the 2-week refinancing rate to 0.50%). | |
| 0830 ET | ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Apr PMI construction expected +0.8 to 48.0, Mar 47.2. |
| CH | 2100 ET | China Apr non-manufacturing PMI, Mar 55.6. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/02/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airgas Inc | ARG US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q4 2013 | 1.127 |
| Scripps Networks Interactive Inc | SNI US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.738 |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.539 |
| PG&E Corp | PCG US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.691 |
| WPX Energy Inc | WPX US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | -0.233 |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.698 |
| Becton Dickinson and Co | BDX US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q2 2013 | 1.352 |
| Quanta Services Inc | PWR US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.304 |
| Denbury Resources Inc | DNR US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.292 |
| Actavis Inc | ACT US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 1.855 |
| Vulcan Materials Co | VMC US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | -0.348 |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q3 2013 | 0.333 |
| Ameren Corp | AEE US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.28 |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q3 2013 | 0.955 |
| CenterPoint Energy Inc | CNP US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.366 |
| CME Group Inc/IL | CME US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.728 |
| International Paper Co | IP US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.738 |
| Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc | MMC US | Bef-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.692 |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 6:30 | ER | Q1 2013 | 1.437 |
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | 7:00 | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.449 |
| Becton Dickinson and Co | BDX US | 8:00 | EC | Q2 2013 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 8:00 | ER | Q3 2013 | 0.611 |
| United Parcel Service Inc | UPS US | 8:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Kellogg Co | K US | 8:00 | ER | Q1 2013 | 1.023 |
| MetLife Inc | MET US | 8:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Tesoro Corp | TSO US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Actavis Inc | ACT US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | 8:30 | EC | Q3 2013 | |
| CME Group Inc/IL | CME US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc | MMC US | 8:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Northeast Utilities | NU US | 9:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Avon Products Inc | AVP US | 9:00 | SM | ||
| Cabot Oil & Gas Corp | COG US | 9:00 | SM | ||
| EI du Pont de Nemours & Co | DD US | 9:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Unum Group | UNM US | 9:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Integrys Energy Group Inc | TEG US | 9:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Sempra Energy | SRE US | 9:00 | ER | Q1 2013 | 1.012 |
| International Paper Co | IP US | 9:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Allstate Corp/The | ALL US | 9:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | 9:30 | SM | ||
| Quanta Services Inc | PWR US | 9:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Newfield Exploration Co | NFX US | 9:30 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | 9:30 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | 9:30 | EC | Q3 2013 | |
| St Jude Medical Inc | STJ US | 9:30 | SM | ||
| Kellogg Co | K US | 9:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Airgas Inc | ARG US | 10:00 | EC | Q4 2013 | |
| Scripps Networks Interactive Inc | SNI US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | 10:00 | SM | ||
| Pioneer Natural Resources Co | PXD US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| WPX Energy Inc | WPX US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Bemis Co Inc | BMS US | 10:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Health Care REIT Inc | HCN US | 10:00 | SM | ||
| Marriott International Inc/DE | MAR US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Capital One Financial Corp | COF US | 10:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Duke Energy Corp | DUK US | 10:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Ameren Corp | AEE US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Kimberly-Clark Corp | KMB US | 10:00 | SM | ||
| Kimco Realty Corp | KIM US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Lincoln National Corp | LNC US | 10:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| PG&E Corp | PCG US | 11:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Valero Energy Corp | VLO US | 11:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Denbury Resources Inc | DNR US | 11:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Ecolab Inc | ECL US | 11:00 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Vulcan Materials Co | VMC US | 11:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 11:00 | EC | Q3 2013 | |
| Prudential Financial Inc | PRU US | 11:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Verizon Communications Inc | VZ US | 11:30 | SM | ||
| CenterPoint Energy Inc | CNP US | 11:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Eastman Chemical Co | EMN US | 11:30 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| American Express Co | AXP US | 11:45 | MA | ||
| Murphy Oil Corp | MUR US | 13:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| DIRECTV | DTV US | 13:00 | SM | ||
| Sempra Energy | SRE US | 13:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Dover Corp | DOV US | 14:00 | SM | ||
| EOG Resources Inc | EOG US | 16:00 | SM | ||
| Kraft Foods Group Inc | KRFT US | 16:00 | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.639 |
| Gilead Sciences Inc | GILD US | 16:05 | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.495 |
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | 16:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Gilead Sciences Inc | GILD US | 16:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Teradata Corp | TDC US | 16:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Prologis Inc | PLD US | 16:30 | SM | Y 2013 | |
| Microchip Technology Inc | MCHP US | 17:00 | EC | Q4 2013 | |
| XL Group PLC | XL US | 17:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Kraft Foods Group Inc | KRFT US | 17:00 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | 17:30 | EC | Q1 2013 | |
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.615 |
| American International Group Inc | AIG US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.878 |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.961 |
| Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The | DNB US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 1.395 |
| Teradata Corp | TDC US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.533 |
| Microchip Technology Inc | MCHP US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q4 2013 | 0.473 |
| Southwestern Energy Co | SWN US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.381 |
| XL Group PLC | XL US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.643 |
| Apartment Investment & Management Co | AIV US | Aft-mkt | ER | Q1 2013 | 0.455 |
| Allergan Inc/United States | AGN US | MA | |||
| Allegheny Technologies Inc | ATI US | SM | |||
| DTE Energy Co | DTE US | SM | Y 2013 | ||
| AutoNation Inc | AN US | SR | 2013 | ||
| Wisconsin Energy Corp | WEC US | SM | Y 2013 | ||
| First Horizon National Corp | FHN US | SM |
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