Wednesday, May 1st, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.11%) this morning are up +0.14% and posted another record high in overnight trade. Most of Europe is closed for holiday, although the UK FTSE 100 Stock Index is up +0.66%. Asian stocks closed lower, although most were closed today for holiday: Japan -0.44%, Australia -0.48%. Commodity prices are mostly lower as weaker-than-expected manufacturing reports in China and Australia undercut most commodities. June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -1.35%) is down -1.41%, June gasoline (RBM13 -1.43%) is down -1.40%, June natural gas (NGM13 +1.04%) is up +0.83%, June gold (GCM13 -0.50%) is down -0.18%, July copper (HGN13 -1.98%) is down -1.84%. Agriculture prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) is down -0.18% and fell to its lowest level in 2 months on speculation the Fed today will affirm its commitment to QE3. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is up +0.23% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is up +0.09%. GBP/USD is up +0.23% and rallied to a 2-1/2 month high after UK manufacturing activity strengthened more than expected last month. June 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNM13 +0.05%) are up +0.5 of a tick ahead of the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting later today.The China Apr manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 50.6, slightly weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 50.7.
The Australia Apr AiG performance of manufacturing index fell -7.7 points to a 4-year low of 36.7.
Japan Mar labor cash earnings fell -0.6% y/y, an improvement from a revised -0.8% y/y decline in Feb, and better than expectations of a -1.2% y/y decline.
UK Apr nationwide house prices fell -0.1% m/m and rose +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
UK Apr PMI manufacturing rose +1.2 to 49.8 from a revised 48.6 in Mar, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 48.5.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a small decline of -0.3 to 51.0, adding to the sharp decline of -2.9 points to 51.3 seen in March. Today’s April ADP employment report is expected at +153,000, which would be just below the +158,000 increase seen in March. Today’s Apr total vehicle sales report is expected to edge higher to 15.30 million units from 15.22 million units in March. The 2-day FOMC meeting that concludes today is expected to produce a fully unchanged monetary policy and no change in the FOMC’s QE3 program. Today is a very busy earnings day with 40 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to release earnings (please see stock calendar below). Key reports include Time Warner, Merck, Mastercard and Visa. Conferences through the remainder of this week include Barclays Retail and Consumer Discretionary Conference on Tue-Wed, PEX Week Europe 2013 on Tue-Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +0.64%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.03, better than consensus of $1.97.Merck (MRK -1.71%) reported Q1 EPS of 85 cents, better than consensus of 79 cents.
CVS Caremark (CVS +1.29%) reported Q1 EPS of 83 cents, better than consensus of 79 cents.
Viacom (VIAB +0.53%) reported Q1 EPS of 96 cents, better than consensus of 95 cents.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK +1.09%) reported Q1 EPS of 30 cents, better than consensus of 25 cents.
Humana (HUM +1.35%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.69, much better than consensus of $1.80.
Amgen (AMGN -2.31%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the company to a "Buy" from "Neutral."
Costco (COST -0.18%) raised its quarterly dividend to 31 cents from 27.5 cents per share.
Manitowoc (MTW +1.57%) reported Q1 EPS of 9 cents, weaker than consensus of 14 cents.
Genworth (GNW +0.91%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 30 cents, better than consensus of 27 cents.
TECO Energy (TE +0.63%) reported Q1 EPS of 19 cents, better than consensus of 17 cents.
Convergys (CVG +2.35%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 27 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents, and raised its guidance on fiscal 2013 to an adjusted EPS of $1.05 from $1.00.
World Fuel Services (INT +1.35%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 77 cents, well ahead of consensus of 64 cents.
PepsiCo (PEP -0.22%) increased its annual dividend to $2.27 from $2,15, the company's 41st consecutive annual dividend increase.
Green Plains (GPRE +0.24%) reported Q1 EPS of 8 cents, better than consensus of a -11 cent loss.
SAC Capital reported a 5.0% passive stake in OpenTable (OPEN -0.52%) and a 5.8% passive stake in Silver Bay Realty (SBY -0.88%) .
IAC (IACI +2.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 83 cents, well ahead of consensus of 69 cents.
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG +0.05%) reported Q1 EPS of 32 cents, better than consensus of 24 cents.
Cray (CRAY +1.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -23 cents, better than consensus of a -24 cent loss, and said ot sees 2013 revenue of $500 million, better than consensus of $498.2 million.
Leap Wireless (LEAP +1.42%) fell more than 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$1.43, wider than consensus of a -$1.26 loss.
Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.16%) initiates a quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share, the first dividend paid to shareholders since FBHS became a public company in October 2011.
DreamWorks (DWA +0.10%) rallied over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of a -3 cent loss.
Western Union (WU +1.16%) reported Q1 EPS of 37 cents, better than consensus of 32 cents.
Bankrate (RATE -0.30%) jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, stronger than consensus of 9 cents
Trinity Industries (TRN +1.44%) reported Q1 EPS of 91 cents, higher than consensus of 81 cents, and raised guidance for fiscal 2013 to $3.80-$4.05, higher than consensus of $3.79.
Spectrum Brands (SPB -0.30%) reported Q2 adjusted of EPS 44 cents, below consensus of 52 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.11%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.14%) at a new record high. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday climbed to a new record high and settled higher after gains in housing prices and consumer confidence offset an unexpected drop in the Apr Chicago PMI. Stocks were pressured early after the Apr Chicago PMI unexpectedly contracted -3.4 points to a 3-1/2 year low of 49.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 52.5. Prices then rallied the rest of the day after U.S. Apr consumer confidence (Conference Board) climbed 6.2 points to a 5-month high of 68.1, better than expectations of +1.3 to 61.0, and after the Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.24% m/m and +9.32% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +9.0% y/y. Closes: S&P 500 +0.25%, Dow Jones +0.14%, Nasdaq 100 +0.71%.June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 +0.05%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday posted a new contract high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-1/2 month low of 1.636%, but prices fell back and closed slightly lower as stock market strength sapped the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. The main bullish factors were a lack of wage pressures after the Q1 employment cost index rose a smaller-than-expected +0.3%, versus expectations of +0.5%, along with concern the economy is slowing after the Apr Chicago PMI unexpectedly contracted at a 3-year low of 49.0. Closes: TYM3 -3.0, FVM3 -0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) this morning is down -0.150 (-0.18%) at a new 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0030 (+0.23%) at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09 (+0.09%). The dollar index on Tuesday dropped to a 2-month low after an unexpected contraction in the Apr Chicago PMI fueled speculation the Fed will maintain or even expand its dollar-negative QE3 program following Wednesday's FOMC meeting. EUR/USD posted a 2-week high on speculation that a forecasted rate cut Thursday by the ECB will spur economic growth in the Eurozone. USD/JPY fell to 2-week low as the yen strengthened after Japan's Mar jobless rate unexpectedly declined -0.1 to a 4-1/3 year low of 4.1%. Closes: Dollar index -0.401 (-0.49%), EUR/USD +0.0069 (+0.53%), USD/JPY -0.318 (-0.33%).
June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -1.35%) this morning is down -1.31 (-1.40%) and June gasoline (RBM13 -1.43%) is down -0.393 (-1.40%). June crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors included the unexpected contraction in the Apr Chicago PMI to a 3-year low, which raises demand concerns, and expectations for Wednesday's EIA weekly inventories to show a +1.1 million barrel increase in crude stockpiles to a 22-3/4 year high. Closes: CLM3 -1.04 (-1.10%), RBM3 -0.0200 (-0.71%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/01/2013
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.2% with purchase sub-index +0.3% and refi sub-index +0.3%. |
| 0815 ET | Apr ADP employment change expected +153,000, Mar 158,000. | |
| 0900 ET | Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds ($13 billion) to be auctioned May 7-9 for the quarterly refunding. | |
| 1000 ET | Mar construction spending expected +0.5%, Feb +1.2%. | |
| 1000 ET | Apr ISM manufacturing expected -0.3 to 51.0, Mar -2.9 to 51.3. Apr ISM prices paid expected -1.9 to 52.6, Mar 54.5. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1400 ET | FOMC announces interest rate decision. | |
| 1700 ET | Apr total vehicle sales expected 15.30 mln, Mar 15.22 mln. Apr domestic vehicle sales expected 12.0 mln units, Mar 12.00 mln. | |
| EUR | n/a | European markets closed for Labor Day. |
| UK | 0200 ET | U.K. Apr nationwide house prices expected +0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | U.K. Apr PMI manufacturing expected +0.2 to 48.5, Mar 48.3. | |
| CH | 2145 ET | China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI expected -1.0 to 50.6, Mar 51.6. |
| n/a | Chinese markets closed for Labor Day. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/01/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS Caremark Corp | CVS US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.794 | |
| Merck & Co Inc | MRK US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.794 | |
| Exelon Corp | EXC US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.678 | |
| Rowan Cos Plc | RDC US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.522 | |
| Comcast Corp | CMCSA US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.505 | |
| Time Warner Inc | TWX US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.744 | |
| Coventry Health Care Inc | CVH US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.813 | |
| Chesapeake Energy Corp | CHK US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.25 | |
| MFA Financial Inc | MFA US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.21 | |
| Devon Energy Corp | DVN US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.551 | |
| Energizer Holdings Inc | ENR US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 | 1.275 | |
| Garmin Ltd | GRMN US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.413 | |
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 6.167 | |
| IntercontinentalExchange Inc | ICE US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.966 | |
| Hospira Inc | HSP US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.442 | |
| Viacom Inc | VIAB US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 | 0.95 | |
| Delphi Automotive PLC | DLPH US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.961 | |
| ADT Corp/The | ADT US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 | 0.425 | |
| Humana Inc | HUM US | 6:00 | Q1 2013 | 1.801 | |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 6:00 | Q1 2013 | 0.271 | |
| SPX Corp | SPW US | 6:30 | Q1 2013 | 0.261 | |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 7:00 | Q1 2013 | 0.818 | |
| Sealed Air Corp | SEE US | 7:30 | Q1 2013 | 0.183 | |
| Hyatt Hotels Corp | H US | 7:30 | Q1 2013 | 0.08 | |
| Merck & Co Inc | MRK US | 8:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Phillips 66 | PSX US | 8:00 | Q1 2013 | 1.886 | |
| Avnet Inc | AVT US | 8:30 | Y 2013 | ||
| Clorox Co/The | CLX US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 | 1.051 | |
| CVS Caremark Corp | CVS US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| SPX Corp | SPW US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Comcast Corp | CMCSA US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| IAC/InterActiveCorp | IACI US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| General Cable Corp | BGC US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| DTE Energy Co | DTE US | 8:30 | Y 2013 | ||
| IntercontinentalExchange Inc | ICE US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Viacom Inc | VIAB US | 8:30 | C1 2013 | ||
| Verisk Analytics Inc | VRSK US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| ADT Corp/The | ADT US | 8:30 | Q2 2013 | ||
| Jack Henry & Associates Inc | JKHY US | 8:45 | Q3 2013 | ||
| Allergan Inc/United States | AGN US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | 0.963 | |
| Domtar Corp | UFS US | 9:00 | Y 2013 | ||
| Arthur J Gallagher & Co | AJG US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| General Dynamics Corp | GD US | 9:00 | |||
| Humana Inc | HUM US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| PepsiCo Inc | PEP US | 9:00 | |||
| PepsiCo Inc | PEP US | 9:00 | Y 2013 | ||
| UGI Corp | UGI US | 9:00 | Q2 2013 | ||
| Clean Harbors Inc | CLH US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| HCC Insurance Holdings Inc | HCC US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Chesapeake Energy Corp | CHK US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| QEP Resources Inc | QEP US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Hospira Inc | HSP US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Genworth Financial Inc | GNW US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Ford Motor Co | F US | 9:30 | 2013 | ||
| Questar Corp | STR US | 9:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Markel Corp | MKL US | 9:30 | Q1 2013 | ||
| Packaging Corp of America | PKG US | 9:30 | |||
| Rackspace Hosting Inc | RAX US | 9:30 | Y 2013 | ||
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.499 | |
| Atmos Energy Corp | ATO US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 | 1.29 | |
| Con-way Inc | CNW US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.273 | |
| Kimco Realty Corp | KIM US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.322 | |
| Lincoln National Corp | LNC US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.099 | |
| Murphy Oil Corp | MUR US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.975 | |
| Northeast Utilities | NU US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.655 | |
| Tesoro Corp | TSO US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.698 | |
| Integrys Energy Group Inc | TEG US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.604 | |
| Atmel Corp | ATML US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.029 | |
| Atwood Oceanics Inc | ATW US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 | 1.217 | |
| CBS Corp | CBS US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.677 | |
| JDS Uniphase Corp | JDSU US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 | 0.114 | |
| Macerich Co/The | MAC US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.792 | |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc | MAA US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.191 | |
| RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd | RNR US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 3.041 | |
| Prudential Financial Inc | PRU US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.884 | |
| Essex Property Trust Inc | ESS US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.88 | |
| Walter Energy Inc | WLT US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | -0.895 | |
| Triumph Group Inc | TGI US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 | 1.597 | |
| Pioneer Natural Resources Co | PXD US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.973 | |
| Concur Technologies Inc | CNQR US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 | 0.235 | |
| Vectren Corp | VVC US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.665 | |
| Charles River Laboratories International Inc | CRL US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.708 | |
| MetLife Inc | MET US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.304 | |
| Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd | ENH US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 1.09 | |
| BioMed Realty Trust Inc | BMR US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.391 | |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp | LVS US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.67 | |
| Brookdale Senior Living Inc | BKD US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | -0.043 | |
| Facebook Inc | FB US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.126 | |
| Concho Resources Inc | CXO US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.781 | |
| Genpact Ltd | G US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.222 | |
| Visa Inc | V US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 | 1.81 | |
| Intrepid Potash Inc | IPI US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 | 0.194 | |
| Arrow Electronics Inc | ARW US | Q1 2013 | 0.882 | ||
| Federal Realty Investment Trust | FRT US | Q1 2013 | 1.123 | ||
| BB&T Corp | BBT US | Y 2013 | |||
| Unit Corp | UNT US | Q1 2013 | 0.865 | ||
| Clean Harbors Inc | CLH US | Q1 2013 | 0.334 | ||
| Expeditors International of Washington Inc | EXPD US | Q1 2013 | 0.393 | ||
| Rovi Corp | ROVI US | Q1 2013 | 0.458 | ||
| IPG Photonics Corp | IPGP US | Q1 2013 | 0.7 | ||
| Sears Holdings Corp | SHLD US | Y 2013 | |||
| Validus Holdings Ltd | VR US | ||||
| Realogy Holdings Corp | RLGY US | Q1 2013 | -0.482 | ||
| KAR Auction Services Inc | KAR US | Q1 2013 | 0.324 | ||
| MSCI Inc | MSCI US | Q1 2013 | 0.542 | ||
| General Motors Co | GM US | 2013 | |||
| Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc | HII US | Y 2013 |
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