Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Are regional airlines different?

I had a little room in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio and this weekend I had determined I would still buy into this market so I went bargain hunting in these down days. I used Barchart to find which stocks were continuing to hit new highs even while the market was sliding backwards and came up with Linhas Aereas Inteligentes ( GOL ) a Brazilian ADR that is a regional airline. Before you start screaming that I'm a total idiot to consider any airline give my thinking a try. Airlines in the rest of the world are a little different that our airlines in the US. In countries like Brazil they is not an alternate transportation choice. For much of the country there is not a proper roadway or rail choice so air travel is the only choice. This airline moves people, cargo and mail bags so they are not as passenger dependent and ticket price sensitive like in the US. Competition also isn't as keen.

The stock has hit new highs in 14 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 more recently. There has been a 63.48% price appreciation in the last 65 days and BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals for a 96% buy rating.

The 9 analysts following the stock look for a 26.2% increase in sales next year and a profit improvement of 136.8% this year. They have 4 buy, 4 hold and 1 sell recommendations. The lone sell was from Citi back in January and the stock has had good price appreciation since that date. The most current review is from Argus this August and they went from sell to buy.

On some other sites Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5/5 and a fundamental rating of 4/5. Over in Motley Fool the members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 313 to 37 with the All Stars in agreement 97 to 10. The mixed review comes from the Wall Street columnists that Fool follows with a vote of 5 to 4. The 4 who say sell did so back earlier in the year and have not revisited their signal. The stock has had pretty good price appreciation since then so I'll discount those sell recommendations.

The stock has what I'm looking for:
  • Hitting new highs in the current market at least 50% of the time
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following the stock - no current trash talking
  • The other sites do not have a major disagreement with my pick

Recommendation: I'm going to add Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio around 15.78 with a protective stop loss no lower than 12.

Disclosure: I hold no positions in this stock at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Monday, December 7, 2009

Is Corning glass transparent?

On Financial Tides I determined over the weekend I'd be a buyer this week. On BarChart I screened for the stocks hitting the most new highs and after a little more screening came up with a recommendation on Corning Inc. -- GLW. The stock has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is recently 5 for 5 with a 32.56% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals with a 100% short term rating and a 88% overall rating.

GLW creates leading-edge technologies for the fastest-growing markets of the world's economy. Corning manufactures optical fiber, cable and photonic products for the telecommunications industry; and high-performance displays and components for television and other communications-related industries. The company also uses advanced materials to manufacture products for scientific, semiconductor and environmental markets.

On Wall Street the 17 analysts who follow the stock give it 11 buy recommendations and there are no under perform or sell reports. They estimate a 30.1% increase in sales and an 18.3% improvement in EPS. That's pretty positive.

On other sites Wall Street Survivor has Mark's checklist giving it a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment rating , a 5/5 fundamental rating and a 5/5 technical rating for an over all rating of 94%

Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market 3245 to 81 with the All Stars in agreement 787 to 7 and the Wall Street columnists Fool follows at 22 to 1. The lone seller was Davenport and the stock has been up 135.14% since he recommended a sell.

This stock seems to meet my 3 criteria:
  • Making new highs better than 50% of the time
  • If followed by Wall Street brokerages - no recent sell recommendations
  • Other sites agree with my recommendation

Recommendation: I'm adding Corning Inc -- GLW-- to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 18.62 with a protective stop loss no lower than 16.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in this stock at the time of publication

Verizon on the horizon

Over the weekend I determined that I'd be a net buyer into the market this week. I had some buying power in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to find what stocks were hitting new highs most frequently. After getting the top ten and doing some additional screening I decided to add Verizon (VZ) to my portfolio. Verizon is one of the largest providers of both wired and wireless communications.

During my BarChart screenings I determined VZ had hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 the past week. There has been a 16.17% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have buy signals on 11 of the 13 indicators and the sell is a long term indicator.

There are 32 Wall Street analysts following the stock and although they estimate only a .09% increase in sales and a 1.6% increase in earnings 16 still recommend you buy the stock. The only sell recommendation was made back in January and seems too old for me to consider.

I'm starting to like the Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist which has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5/5, fundamental rating of 4/5 and a technical rating of 5/5. Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 3386 to 198 with the All Star members in agreement with a vote of 847/38. Motley Fool follows some Wall Street columnists and they like the stock 32 to 1.

I'm the first to admit that I have no crystal ball and I don't have an original thought in my head. I've just developed a method to find stocks with a positive price momentum and a discipline to manage the portfolio I own. To be added to my portfolio a stock must:
  • Hit new highs more than 50% of the time
  • If followed by Wall Street Brokerage firms not have a majority of sell recommendations out there - trash taking by brokers usually means net sells
  • Have some confirmation of my research by some of the other technical indicator sites I follow

Recommendation: Verizon Communications (VZ) meets my criteria and is being added to my Wall Street survivor portfolio around 33.15 with a protective stop loss of no lower than 30.

Disclosure: I own no positions in the stock at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Market up W/E 12/4/2009

Each week on Financial Tides I try to step back away from all the daily news and hypes and determine how the market really performed in the last week. After I look at the real state of the market I make my investing strategy for the next week. Will I be buying, selling or just sitting on the side lines? I use BarChart to find my data.

Value Line Index -- an index of 1700 of the larger exchange traded stocks -- much broader coverage than just the S&P 500 or Dow 30 -- Index had positive price appreciation for the week
  • The Index was up 3.31% for the week
  • BarChart technical indicators were 9 buys, 3 holds and 1 sell - Overall rating of 64% buy
  • Short term indicators - 80% buy
  • Mid term indicators - 75% buy
  • Long term indicators - 64% buy

BarChart market momentum - how many stocks closed above the Daily Moving Average for various time periods - approx. 6000 stocks -- better than 50% of the stocks closed above their DMA for all 3 periods

  • 20 DMA -- 66.85% above
  • 50 DMA -- 62.46% above
  • 100 DMA -- 71.78% above

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various periods -- above 1.00 positive, 1.00 neutral, below .99 negative -- ratio positive for all 3 periods

  • 20 day ratio 1537/571 = 3.01
  • 65 day ratio 728/223 = 3.26
  • 100 day ratio 664/318 = 2.09

Summary -- The market had positive weekly price appreciation, the majority of the stocks closed above their daily moving averages, the ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stock hitting new lows shows the market displayed strength to the upside

Investment Strategy -- Of course I'll trim out any stocks that can't maintain its price above their 50 DMA and I'll feel confident to make new purchases that meet my screening criteria.

Wall Street Survivor score board -- The Top Stock columnists that recommend stocks place those stocks in a model portfolio on Wall Street Survivor for a little friendly competition. Results month to date are:

  • S&P 500 MTD up .02%
  • 7 of the 8 participants beat the S&P 500
  • I'm in 1st place with a return of 3.56%

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of my Top Stock recommendations at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on FinancialTides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Friday, December 4, 2009

When the economy turns own chemicals

I had some room in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to screen for the stocks hitting new highs recently and then sorted for the ones hitting new highs the most consistently. Huntsman (HUN) came in near the top of the list after I screened for some of my other criteria. HUN is a manufacturer of differentiated and commodity chemical products for industrial and consumer applications. They are world wide so they should benefit as the world wide recession comes to a turn.

They have hit new highs in 15 of the last 20 trading sessions and 5 for 5 in the last week. There has been a 39.32% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's 13 technical indicators all have buy signals for a 100% buy recommendation.

Over on Wall Street the 5 analysts who follow the stock look for an 11% increase in sales and a whopping 112.7% increase in EPS. 4 of the analysts have strong holds and the only sell is very old and I think needs to be revisited.

I always look at other sites to see if others confirm or disagree with my screening and research. On Wall Street Survivor Mark's Check list has a Survivor Sentiment of 5 for 5 and a technical rating of 5 for 5 also. On Motley Fool CAPS the members vote that the stock will out perform the market 518 to 26 with the All Stars voting 230 to 5. Motley Fool has some favorite Wall Street columnists they follow and they say the Wall Street guys like it 4 to 2. One of the dissenters is Jim Cramer and the stock has gone up 272.20% since he gave a sell signal.

Remember my 3 main criteria hurdles:
  • The stock must hit new highs better than 50% of the time and have a technical indicator rating of more than 80%
  • Although I don't have much faith in the Wall Street analysts forecasts if they have sell ratings out there then a lot of brokers are calling clients soliciting sell - No Wall Street trash talking
  • Do other rating sites agree with me? If they don't I might have missed something.

Recommendation: I'm adding Huntsman (HUN) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio for the reasons above. It's selling around 10.50 and I think a protective stop loss of no lower than 9 is warranted.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any of my Wall Street Survivor holdings at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Invest in someone else's ability to invest

I needed a new stock for my Financial Tides/BarChart portfolio on Marketocracy so I used BarChart to screen for stocks trading under 100K shares a day that continue to hit new highs. After screening I came up with Oppenheimer Holding -- OPY. The stock has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for the last 5. There has been a 45.33% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals with one hold for an overall buy rating of 96%.

OPY is a holding company and carries on no active business. The company is engaged in the securities brokerage and trading business and offers investment advisory and other related financial services. The operating subsidiaries are engaged in a broad range of activities in the securities brokerage business, including retail securities brokerage, bond trading and investment banking-offering both corporate and public finance services, underwriting, research, market making and investment advisory and asset management services. You are investing in some one elses' ability to make money in financial services.

Other brokerages usually don't like to make recommendations or trash other brokerages in print but although there are no brokerage recommendation son the stock an analyst following the stock estimates a 16.7% growth in revenue and a 78.9% growth in EPS next year.

Over on Motley Fool CAPS the members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 118 to 7 with the All Stars agreeing 30 to 0. The 2 Wall Street columnists Motley Fool follows also agree 2 to 0.

Meets my criteria because:
  • Hitting new highs better than 50% of the time
  • No major brokerages recommending sell or trash talking
  • Confirmation by other sites that the stock will out perform the market.

Recommendation: I'm adding Oppenheimer Holding - OPY to my VMSLO Marketocracy portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in OPY at the time of publication

Want to invest in mortgages???

I needed a new stock for my Financial Tides/BarChart VMNHI portfolio that I have on Marketocracy. I screened for stocks hitting new highs trading over 100K shares a day and went through my filtering process and came up with Hatteras Financial Corp - HTS.

HTS is an externally-managed mortgage real estate investment trust formed in 2007 to invest in adjustable-rate and hybrid adjustable-rate single-family residential mortgage pass-through securities issued or guaranteed by U.S. Government agencies or U.S. Government-sponsored entities, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. Hatteras Financial Corp. is managed and advised by Atlantic Capital Advisors LLC.

You might think I'm totally nut to invest is these risky assets but they are all guaranteed by governmental agencies.

The stock has hit 15 new highs in the last 20 sessions and 5 new highs in the last 5 sessions. There has been a 15.84% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators signal 11 buys and 2 holds for an 88% overall buy rating.

Right now none of the major brokerage firms are turning out research reports but their not trashing it either. The stock has had increasing revenue, EPS and dividend increases since it was formed and with the governmental agency backing why would that change?

Over on Motley Fool CAPS the members vote that it will out perform the market 114 to 19 with the All Stars voting 36 to 7. The Wall Street columnists following the stock have positive recommendations6 to 1. The lone dissenter is Jim Cramer and the stock has appreciated 11.16% since he gave a sell signal.

The stock passes my screening process:
  • HTS is hitting new highs better than 50% of the time
  • No major brokerages are trashing the stock
  • Other rating sites confirm my analysis

Recommendation: You may think I'm crazy for adding an adjustable rate mortgage holding company to my portfolio but I'll go with the gov't agency backing. Adding to VMNHI around 30.90 with a tight stop loss at no lower than 29.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in HTS at time of publication

High flyer in Mexico

I've got some room in my Top Stock Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to screen for the stocks trading over 100K shares per day and sort for frequency. After using my normal filtering process I ended up with Groupo Aeroportuario (ASR). The company has concessions to manage and operate airports in such hot southeastern airports of Mexico like Cancun and Cozumel. Very hot tourist areas with major air traffic from the US and Europe.

ASR has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and in 4 for the most recent 5 days. There has been a 34.17% price appreciation in the last 65 days. It's hitting on all cylinders with BarChart's technical indicators giving 13 out of 13 signals to buy for a 100% buy rating.

Wall Street seems to confirm the price momentum with the analysts consensus that sales will increase 14.3% and EPS by 34.6% in the coming year. The 7 analyst give 4 buy, 2 hold and 1 sell recommendations. The sell rating is so old I can even find it listed but it's still in the data feed.

On other sites Mark's checklist on Wall Street Survivor rates the stock with a Survivor Sentiment rating 5/5 and a fundamental rating of 4/5. Motley Fool CAPS members confirm with a vote that the stock will outperform the market 240 to 10 and the All Stars vote of 94 to 2. The Wall Street columnists Motley Fool follows are split 1 to 1.

This stock passes my screening process:
  • The stock is hitting new highs and has a BarChart buy rating of at least 80%
  • If the stock has Wall Street following none of the major brokerage firms have negative reports with sell signals
  • Other stock rating sites agree with my first 2 tests

Recommendation: I'm adding Groupo Aeroportuario (ASR) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio around 54 and would sell if it failed to trade above 45.

By the way the person who thought the stock will under perform was Jim Cramer and the stock has had a 47.26% price increase since he gave his sell signal. I mentor the Senior Economics class at Charlotte Latin School in a stock market competition with other schools across the US. Every semester I give them the same homework assignment. Watch Mad Money and/or Fast Money with your parents and discuss if this is valuable financial information or just TV entertainment. This week they will be making their oral presentations and giving me their opinions and I'd like to hear yours'.

Disclosure: I hold no positions in Grupo Aeroportuario (ASR) at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Cardinal HealthCare's future looks rosey

I'm adding Cardinal Healthcare -- CAH -- to my Financial Tides Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio. CAH has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 4 for 5 recently. There has been a 32.64% price appreciation in the last 65 days and BarChart's technical indicators have 11 out of 13 buy signals for an overall 80% buy rating.

CAH is one of the leading providers of products and services to health care providers and manufacturers to help them improve the efficiency and quality of health care. These services and products include Pharmaceutical Distribution and Provider Services, Medical-Surgical Products and Services, Pharmaceutical Technologies and Services and Automation and Information Services.

18 Wall Street analysts follow the stock and there are 8 buy recommendations with no under performance or sell recommendations. They estimate a 3.4% sales growth and an 8.9% EPS growth. Good solid estimates.

Over on Motley Fool CAPS their members vote 402 to 37 that the stock will out perform the market and the All Stars agree with a vote of 134 to 8. The Wall Street columnists that Motley Fool follows think it will also out perform the market with a vote of 13 to 0. Good confirmations.

This stock:
  • Is hitting new high better than 50% of the time and a BarChart buy rating of 80% or better
  • Has a positive Wall Street following with no trash talk
  • Has a positive vote from CAPS members and Wall Street columnist

Recommendation: I'm adding to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 33 with a protective stop loss no lower than 30.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions in CAH at time of publication

Health Care products for the masses

On Financial Tides I always try to find stocks that are hitting new highs. Johnson and Johnson -- JNJ is just such a stock. JNJ has hit 15 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 3 for 5 recently. There has been a consistent 9.86% price appreciation in the last 65 days. On BarChart the technical indicators for a buy signal are 12 for 13 with just 1 hold for a 96% buy rating.

JNJ is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Professional. As I say health care products for the masses.

Wall Street analysts like this stock too. The 21 analysts who follow the stock have 13 buy recommendations with the rest hold. No sell recommendations from any of them. They expect a 4.7% increase in sales and a 7.6% increase in earnings per share.

Other sites confirm my buy with the Motley Fool CAPS members giving the stock an out perform the market vote of 12,080 to 417 and the All Stars 3021 to 61. The Motley Fool Wall Street consensus is 30 to 1.

This stock has what I look for and is being added to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio:
  • Hitting new highs better than 50% of the time and a BarChart technical rating above 80%
  • If it has a Wall Street following no major trash talking
  • Confirmation from other sites that it has a following

Recommendation: I'm adding Johnson & Johnson -- JNJ -- to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 63.75 with a stop loss no lower than 61.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in JNJ at time of publication