Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - Mon Mar 6, 6:42AM CST
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Mar E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.24% and European stocks are down -0.37% as weakness in commodity prices undercuts energy producers and mining stocks. Marathon Oil and Kinder Morgan are both down more than 1% in pre-market trading as Apr WTI Crude oil falls -0.77% after data from Baker Hughes Friday showed U.S. active oil rigs rose to a 17-month high. Freeport-McMoRan is down nearly 3% in pre-market trading as May COMEX copper slides -1.34% to a 1-week low on Chinese demand concerns. Losses in European stocks were limited after the Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence rose more than expected to a 9-1/2 year high. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.46%, Hong Kong +0.18%, China +0.48%, Taiwan +0.36%, Australia +0.30%, Singapore -0.03%, South Korea +0.24%, India +0.75%. Chinese stocks rose after Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the annual National People's Congress in Beijing, said systemic risk is under control and economic fundamentals remain sound enough for the government to set a 2017 growth target of "around 6.5%, or higher if possible." Commodity prices fell, however, when he also warned that profound changes in the international political and economic landscape threaten global growth. He said challenges include a faster pace of U.S. interest rate hikes that pressure capital outflows and the yuan, along with the risk of trade frictions should President Trump follow through on his campaign pledges to take a tough stance on trade.
The dollar index is up +0.04%. EUR/USD is down -0.39%. USD/JPY is down -0.18%.
Jun 10-year T-note prices are up +4 ticks.
In its quarterly reviews, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns the global economy's recovery from the financial crisis may be overly dependent on domestic consumption and at risk of failing. It said "Increasing shares of private consumption in gross domestic product can be a leading indicator of future growth slowdowns as high household debt service ratios tend to become a potent drag on economic growth."
The Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence rose +3.3 to 20.7, stronger than expectations of +1.1 to 18.5 and a 9-1/2 year high.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jan factory orders (expected +1.0%, Dec +1.3% and +2.1% ex transportation), (2) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) speaks at the NABE conference in Washington DC, (3) USDA weekly grain export inspections.
Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Casey's General Stores (consensus $0.90), Thor Industries (1.22), AquaBounty Technologies.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences: Citi Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Tue, Cowen and Company Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James and Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Raymond James and Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Wed, Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP Semi Storage & Technology Conference on Thu, UBS Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Time Warner (TWX -0.23%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
MetLife (MET +2.62%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $59.
Netflix (NFLX -0.28%) rose 2% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded by UBS to a 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a price target of $175.
FedEx (FDX -0.18%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $220.
GoPro (GPRO -4.64%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $6.
Alcoa (AA +1.48%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $52.
EI du Pont de Nemours (DD -0.16%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies with a 12-month target price of $96.
Dow Chemical (DOW -0.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jeffries with a 12-month target price of $75.
Wells Fargo (WFC +0.31%) is facing a Justice Department probe to see if executives hid details of a bogus account scandal from the board of regulators, according to Reuters.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -0.05%) slid 1% in after-hours trading after it filed a 2.88 million-share shelf for holder Pershing Square Capital Management LP.
Editas Medicine (EDIT -6.81%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after filing $350 million mixed securities shelf and registering up to 15.25 million shares for selling holders.
Halcon Resources (HK -3.61%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it registered 55.18 million shares for conversion of preferred stock for holders.
Elliot Associates LP raised their passive stake in Roadrunner Transportation Systems (RRTS +0.65%) to 7.5% from 4.9%.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -5.75 points (-0.24%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.59%, Dow Jones -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.51%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed slightly higher on the +1.1 point rise in the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index to a 16-month high and on upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said risks to the economic outlook are "roughly balanced." Gains were limited by signs that the Fed will raise interest rates at the Mar 14-15 FOMC meeting after Fed Chair Yellen said a March interest rate hike is "likely appropriate" if the economy evolves as expected.
Jun 10-year T-notes this morning are up +4 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM7 +2.50, FVM7 +2.50. Jun 10-year T-notes on Friday recovered from a 2-week low and closed slightly higher on some short-covering after Fed Chair Yellen said that the Fed is not behind the curve and that a "gradual" removal of monetary accommodation is appropriate, which eased concern that she would be more hawkish and signal additional rate hikes. T-note prices were undercut by the stronger-than-expected Feb ISM non-manufacturing report and Fed Chair Yellen's comment that a March interest rate hike is "likely appropriate" if the economy evolves as expected.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.04 (+0.04%). EUR/USD is down -0.0041 (-0.39%). USD/JPY is down -0.21 (-0.18%). Friday's closes: Dollar index -0.66 (-0.65%), EUR/USD +0.0115 (+1.09%), USD/JPY -0.37 (-0.32%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on Fed Chair Yellen's comment that the Fed is not behind the curve and that a "gradual" removal of monetary accommodation is appropriate, which suggests she does not favor more aggressive tightening. In addition, there was strength in EUR/USD on reduced European political risks after polls showed French Presidential candidate Macron jumped ahead of anti-euro candidate Le Pen for the first time.
Apr WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -41 cents (-0.77%) and Apr gasoline is -0.0103 (-0.62%). Friday's closes: Apr crude +0.72 (+1.37%), Apr gasoline +0.0098 (+0.60%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on concerns about supply disruptions after rebels seized Libya's Es Sider terminal, the country's biggest oil port, which may reduce Libya's oil output of 700,000 bpd in Feb.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/06/2017
| Mon, Mar 6 | ||
| US | 1000 ET | Jan factory orders expected +1.0%, Dec +1.3% and +2.1% ex transportation. |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1500 ET | Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) speaks at the NABE conference in Washington, D.C. | |
| Tue, Mar 7 | ||
| US | 0830 ET | Jan trade balance expected -$48.5 billion, Dec -$44.3 billion. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $24 billion of 3-year T-notes. | |
| 1500 ET | Jan consumer credit expected +$18.00 billion, Dec +$14.16 billion |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/06/2017
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 7:00 | February 2017 Sales and Revenue Release | 2017 | |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 8:00 | Financial Community Meeting | Y 2017 | |
| Thor Industries Inc | THO US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2017 Earnings Release | Q2 2017 | 1.216 |
| Casey's General Stores Inc | CASY US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 2017 | 0.895 |
| Energen Corp | EGN US | Investors Meeting - Day 1 | Y 2017 | ||
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting | Y 2017 | ||
| AquaBounty Technologies Inc | ABTX LN | Y 2016 Earnings Release | Y 2016 |
