Barchart Morning Call
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.16%) are down -0.12%, led by weakness in energy producing stocks, with Mar WTI crude oil (CLH17 -0.19%) down -0.25% at a 1-week low. Crude prices are under pressure on expectations that tomorrow's weekly EIA data will show U.S. crude inventories rose +3.0 million bbl. European stocks are up +0.20% on signs of strength in the European economy after Q4 Eurozone GDP expanded at a stronger-than-expected +1.8% y/y pace and the Dec Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 7-1/2 year low of 9.6%. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -1.69%, Australia -0.72%, Singapore -0.59%, South Korea -0.88%, India -0.70%, Hong Kong, China and Taiwan all closed for holiday. Japanese stocks closed lower as they followed Monday's losses in U.S. and European equity markets. The BOJ, as expected, kept interest rates and its asset purchase target unchanged following today's policy meeting.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) is down -0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.63% after Eurozone Jan CPI rose more than expected at the fastest pace in 3-3/4 years and after President Trump's trade advisor Navarro said that Germany is using a "grossly undervalued" euro to its trade advantage. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%.
Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 +0.09%) are little changed, down -0.5 of a tick.
The Eurozone Dec unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 9.6%, better than expectations of no change at 9.8% and the lowest in 7-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Jan CPI estimate climbed +1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.5% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 3-3/4 years. The Jan core CPI rose +0.9% y/y, right on expectations.
Eurozone Q4 GDP of +0.5% q/q and +1.8% y/y was slightly stronger than expectations of +0.5% q/q and +1.7% y/y.
Japan Dec industrial production rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
The Japan Dec jobless rate remained unch at 3.1%, right on expectations. The Dec job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.02 to 1.43, better than expectations of +0.01 to 1.42 and the highest in 25-1/3 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q4 employment cost index (expected +0.6%, Q3 +0.6%), (2) Nov S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected +0.6% m/m and +5.04% y/y, Oct +0.63% m/m and +5.1% y/y), (3) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting, (4) Jan Chicago PMI (expected +1.1 to 55.0, Dec -3.3 to 53.9), (5) Jan Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence (expected -0.9 to 112.8, Dec +4.3 to 113.7).
Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Apple (consensus $3.22), Mastercard (0.85), Exxon (0.70), UPS (1.69), Nasdaq (0.94), Harley-Davidson (0.31), Aetna (1.44), Valero (0.78).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Laureate Education (LAUR), Invitation Homes (INVH).
Equity conferences: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +0.81%) slid over 1% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Underperform' at CLSA.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $85.
T-Mobile US (TMUS -2.07%) was initiated a new 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $72, citing the best organic growth prospects in the wireless industry and M&A potential.
Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS +0.40%) climbed 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS continuing operations of $1.06, well above consensus of 81 cents.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA -0.20%) sank 11% in after-hours trading after it lost a ruling that invalidated four patents on its top-selling multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone.
Graco (GGG -0.16%) climbed 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.00, well above consensus of 86 cents.
Integrated Device Technology (IDTI -0.45%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after it said it expects Q4 revenue of $170-million-$180 million, at the low end of consensus of $179 million.
Werner Enterprises (WERN +0.91%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 30 cents, better than consensus of 26 cents.
Sanmina (SANM +1.22%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 67 cents, and then said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS of 67 cents-72 cents, above consensus of 66 cents.
DHT holdings (DHT +7.96%) rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 Ebitda of $46.7 million, higher than consensus of $40.8 million.
Rambus (RMBS +0.65%) lost nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 revenue of $93 million-$98 million, the midpoint below consensus of $95.7 million.
Greenbrier Cos (GBX -2.68%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it announced a $175 million offering of senior convertible notes due 2024,
Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP +0.97%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary public offering of 4 million common units.
Roadrunner Transportations Systems (RRTS -1.70%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it said it will amend its 2015 annual report and 2016 quarterly reports through Q3 after it found accounting errors it estimates will require adjustments to results of $20 million-$25 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.16%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.12%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.60%, Dow Jones -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.75%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on the +0.3% increase in U.S. Dec personal income (slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4%) and on weakness in tech stocks on the potential for workforce disruption related to the Trump administration's immigration restrictions. In addition, energy producing stocks fell as crude oil fell -1.02%. A supportive factors was the +1.6% m/m increase in U.S. Dec pending home sales, stronger than expectations of +1.0% and biggest increase in 8 months.
Mar 10-year T-notes this morning (ZNH17 +0.09%) are down -0.5 of a tick. Monday's closes: TYH7 +1.50, FVH7 +0.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks sold off. Gains were limited by the strongest increase in U.S. Dec pending home sales in 8 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) this morning is down -0.29 (-0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0067 (+0.63%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is -0.37 (-0.33%). Monday's closes: Dollar index -0.1- (-0.10%), EUR/USD -0.0004 (-0.04%), USD/JPY -1.33 (-1.16%). The dollar index on Monday posted a 1-week high but shed its gains and closed lower. The dollar index was undercut by the sell-off in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and by concern about global reaction to the Trump administration's new immigration restrictions. The dollar was also undercut by the decline in U.S. T-note yields, which reduced the dollar's interest rate differentials. EUR/USD fell to a 1-week low after German Jan CPI rose less than expected.
Mar WTI crude oil prices (CLH17 -0.19%) this morning are down -13 cents (-0.25%) at a 1-week low and Mar gasoline (RBH17 +0.93%) is +0.0145 (+0.95%). Monday's closes: Mar crude -0.54 (-1.02%), Mar gasoline -0.0187 (-1.21%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower with Mar gasoline at a 1-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by negative carry-over from Friday’s data from Baker Hughes that showed U.S. active oil rigs rose by 16 in the week ended Jan 20 to a 14-1/2 month high of 566 rigs. In addition, the crack spread fell to a 2-month low, which may curb refinery demand for crude to refine into gasoline.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/31/2017
| Tuesday, Jan 31 | ||
| US | 0830 ET | Q4 employment cost index expected +0.6%, Q3 +0.6%. |
| 0900 ET | Nov S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index expected +0.6% m/m and +5.04% y/y, Oct +0.63% m/m and +5.1% y/y. | |
| 0930 ET | FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting. | |
| 0945 ET | Jan Chicago PMI expected +1.1 to 55.0, Dec -3.3 to 53.9. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence expected -0.9 to 112.8, Dec +4.3 to 113.7. | |
| Wednesday, Feb 1 | ||
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.0% with purchase sub-index +6.0% and refi sub-index +0.2%. |
| 0815 ET | Jan ADP employment change expected +167,000, Dec +153,000. | |
| 0830 ET | Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $20 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $12 billion) to be auctioned Feb 7-9 in the Feb quarterly refunding. | |
| 0945 ET | Revised Jan Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, prelim-Jan +0.8 to 55.1. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan ISM manufacturing PMI expected +0.5 to 55.0, Dec +1.0 to 54.7. Jan ISM new orders, Dec +5.5 to 60.3. Jan ISM employment, Dec +0.3 at 52.8. Jan ISM prices paid expected +0.5 to 66.0, Dec +11.0 to 65.5. | |
| 1000 ET | Dec construction spending expected +0.2% m/m, Nov +0.9% m/m. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1400 ET | FOMC announces interest rate decision; no change expected for 0.50%-0.75% fed funds target range. | |
| n/a | Jan total vehicle sales expected 17.50 million, Dec 18.29 million. Jan domestic vehicle sales expected 14.00 million, Dec 14.19 million. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/31/2017
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corp | NUE US | Bf-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.345 |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | TMO US | Bf-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 2.378 |
| Pentair PLC | PNR US | Bf-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.732 |
| Simon Property Group Inc | SPG US | Bf-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 2.555 |
| Valero Energy Corp | VLO US | Bf-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.777 |
| Danaher Corp | DHR US | 6:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.03 |
| Aetna Inc | AET US | 6:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.437 |
| Eli Lilly & Co | LLY US | 6:25 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.984 |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | 6:30 | Q1 2017 Earnings Release | Q1 2017 | 1.23 |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE US | 6:45 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.504 |
| Coach Inc | COH US | 6:45 | Q2 2017 Earnings Release | Q2 2017 | 0.742 |
| Harley-Davidson Inc | HOG US | 6:55 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.312 |
| Xerox Corp | XRX US | 7:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.251 |
| Nasdaq Inc | NDAQ US | 7:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.944 |
| Under Armour Inc | UAA US | 7:15 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.249 |
| Danaher Corp | DHR US | 7:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc | ZBH US | 7:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 2.111 |
| United Parcel Service Inc | UPS US | 7:45 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.69 |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.704 |
| PACCAR Inc | PCAR US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.87 |
| Nasdaq Inc | NDAQ US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc | ZBH US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.855 |
| Leggett & Platt Inc | LEG US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | TMO US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| United Parcel Service Inc | UPS US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | 8:30 | Q1 2017 Earnings Call | Q1 2017 | |
| Aetna Inc | AET US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Coach Inc | COH US | 8:30 | Q2 2017 Earnings Call | Q2 2017 | |
| Under Armour Inc | UAA US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| HCA Holdings Inc | HCA US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.785 |
| Harley-Davidson Inc | HOG US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Eli Lilly & Co | LLY US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Pentair PLC | PNR US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| GGP Inc | GGP US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 9:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE US | 10:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Xerox Corp | XRX US | 10:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Principal Financial Group Inc | PFG US | 10:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Valero Energy Corp | VLO US | 10:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| HCA Holdings Inc | HCA US | 10:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| CNH Industrial NV | CNHI US | 10:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Simon Property Group Inc | SPG US | 11:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Visa Inc | V US | 11:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2017 | |
| PACCAR Inc | PCAR US | 12:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| UDR Inc | UDR US | 13:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Nucor Corp | NUE US | 14:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Anadarko Petroleum Corp | APC US | 16:05 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | -0.443 |
| Equity Residential | EQR US | 16:15 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.797 |
| Apple Inc | AAPL US | 16:30 | Q1 2017 Earnings Release | Q1 2017 | 3.221 |
| Fortune Brands Home-Security | FBHS US | 16:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Arconic Inc | ARNC US | 17:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Apple Inc | AAPL US | 17:00 | Q1 2017 Earnings Call | Q1 2017 | |
| Electronic Arts Inc | EA US | 17:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 2017 | |
| Illumina Inc | ILMN US | 17:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Aflac Inc | AFL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.628 |
| Arconic Inc | ARNC US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.13 |
| Electronic Arts Inc | EA US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 2017 | 2.299 |
| Chubb Ltd | CB US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 2.414 |
| Boston Properties Inc | BXP US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.495 |
| CH Robinson Worldwide Inc | CHRW US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.84 |
| Illumina Inc | ILMN US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.82 |
| Fortune Brands Home-Security | FBHS US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.687 |
| Hormel Foods Corp | HRL US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| CNH Industrial NV | CNHI US | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.122 |
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