Major ETFs having a hard time

One of the best ways I found to gauge the overall strength of the market is to look at the 5 major ETF's the S&P 500 Large Cap Index (IVV), the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (IJH), the S&P 600 Small Cap Index (IJR) , the Russell Micro Cap Index (IWC) and the NASDAQ 100 Index (QQQ).  This tells you not only the movement in the overall market but also in the various capitalized levels of the market as well.  These 5 fund own approximately 3000 separate stocks equaling about 98% of the entire US stock market capitalization.

Notice all 5 ETFs are trading below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. If you panic when the market is off by more than 10% then there is good news here as only the Russell Micro Cap (IWC) is down by more than 10% and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is only 2.94% off its 52 week high.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index  (IVV)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 16% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
• 3.67% off its 52 week high
• Relative Strength Index 50.82%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 203.01
• Recently traded at 207.49 which is below its 50 day moving average of 207.78

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (IJH)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 48% Barchart  technical sell signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9.05% off its 52 week high
• Relative Strength Index 47.87%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 137.44
• Recently traded at 141.24 which is below its 0 day moving average of 143.31

S&P 600 Small Cap Index (IJR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 0% Barchart technical hold signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 8.41% off its 52 week high
• Relative Strength Index 48.68%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 108.60
• Recently traded at 111.94 which is below its 50 day moving average of 113.18

Russell Micro Cap Index (IWC)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 16% Barchart technical sell signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13.19% off its 52 week high
• Relative Strength Index 49.10%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 71.45
• Recently traded at 73.15 which is below its 50 day moving average of 74.04

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 8% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
• 2.94% off its 52 week high
• Relative Strength Index 49.48%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 110.70
• Recently traded at 112.29 which is below its 50 day moving average of 112.52

I'm back in the market

My personal account is traded much differently than my managed accounts.  Rules regarding the managed accounts require that the funds be fully invested at all times.

I'm 68 years old and have accumulated a lot of assets in tax deferred accounts that will be the capital I will consume and live off of in about 3 years when my mandatory MRDs kick in.  I have 3 goals for my retirement funds:

• Preservation of capital
• A total return higher than the return of the Market
• A positive total return that exceeds taxes, inflation and my withdrawal rate

In my personal accounts I attempt to be in the Market in Bull Markets and out of the Market in Bear Markets.  I follow how the total market is trading against its moving averages and how different investment sectors are trading against their 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.  A Market trend is called by the 50 day moving average and a Bull and Bear Market is called against the 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.

At the close of the market last night 57.17% of  9895 stocks in my data base were trading above their 50 day moving averages and the Value Line Index which in my Market proxy had buy signals on Barchart for both the technical buy/sell signals and the Trend Spotter.  Looking at the charts shows a trend to have buy signals soon for the 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.

Last night's portfolio:

Sym	Name	Last	Weighted Alpha	Today's Opinion	50-100 Day MACD Osc	Trend Spotter	14-Day Rel Str	1-Month Percent	3-Month Percent	6-Month Percent	12-Month % High	Links
$VLA	Value Line Index	4,501.27	+1.40	16% Buy	Sell	Buy	59.88%	+2.55%	-4.77%	-8.02%	-8.86%
$RUA	Russell 3000 Index	1,199.12	+3.19	16% Buy	Sell	Buy	59.15%	+2.36%	-3.50%	-4.78%	-6.02%
IVV	S&P 500 Index Ishare	202.68	+3.10	16% Buy	Sell	Buy	59.11%	+2.41%	-2.93%	-4.14%	-5.83%
IJH	S&P Midcap 400 Index	143.89	+4.50	8% Sell	Sell	Hold	58.31%	+1.65%	-4.06%	-6.01%	-7.25%
IJR	S&P Smallcap 600 Ind	113.05	+6.00	24% Buy	Sell	Buy	60.43%	+2.53%	-4.15%	-4.66%	-7.41%
IWC	Russell Microcap Ind	73.77	+2.00	16% Sell	Sell	Sell	53.59%	-0.85%	-8.53%	-7.99%	-12.47%
QQQ	Powershares QQQ	106.79	+10.10	Hold	Sell	Sell	57.34%	+1.16%	-0.80%	-0.89%	-6.64%
ICF	Realty Majors Cohen	97.04	+7.30	80% Buy	Sell	Buy	66.17%	+8.35%	+3.80%	-1.90%	-9.65%
JNK	SPDR High Yield Bond	36.27	-10.20	16% Sell	Sell	Sell	48.74%	-2.08%	-5.20%	-7.94%	-10.58%
EFA	EAFE Index MSCI Isha	60.93	-2.40	16% Buy	Sell	Buy	60.31%	+2.51%	-5.24%	-8.04%	-11.06%
BKF	BRIC Index MSCI Isha	32.22	-15.70	24% Buy	Sell	Buy	61.39%	+6.48%	-9.85%	-20.64%	-22.73%
EEM	Emrg Mkts Index MSCI	35.67	-13.90	24% Buy	Sell	Buy	63.43%	+6.60%	-7.21%	-16.81%	-19.28%
FM	MSCI Frontier 100	25.88	-27.29	16% Sell	Sell	Sell	49.54%	-3.61%	-9.32%	-15.65%	-31.32%
OIL	S&P GSCI Crude Oil	8.83	-51.80	24% Buy	Sell	Buy	52.65%	+5.75%	-16.30%	-19.95%	-57.85%

This is how the Value Line Index looked last night:

And this is how it looked on 10/5:

We have upward momentum but not yet a full Bull Market.