I'm 68 years old and have accumulated a lot of assets in tax deferred accounts that will be the capital I will consume and live off of in about 3 years when my mandatory MRDs kick in. I have 3 goals for my retirement funds:
- Preservation of capital
- A total return higher than the return of the Market
- A positive total return that exceeds taxes, inflation and my withdrawal rate
In my personal accounts I attempt to be in the Market in Bull Markets and out of the Market in Bear Markets. I follow how the total market is trading against its moving averages and how different investment sectors are trading against their 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator. A Market trend is called by the 50 day moving average and a Bull and Bear Market is called against the 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.
At the close of the market last night 57.17% of 9895 stocks in my data base were trading above their 50 day moving averages and the Value Line Index which in my Market proxy had buy signals on Barchart for both the technical buy/sell signals and the Trend Spotter. Looking at the charts shows a trend to have buy signals soon for the 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.
Last night's portfolio:
| Sym | Name | Last | Weighted Alpha | Today's Opinion | 50-100 Day MACD Osc | Trend Spotter | 14-Day Rel Str | 1-Month Percent | 3-Month Percent | 6-Month Percent | 12-Month % High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $VLA | Value Line Index | 4,501.27 | +1.40 | 16% Buy | Sell | Buy | 59.88% | +2.55% | -4.77% | -8.02% | -8.86% |
| $RUA | Russell 3000 Index | 1,199.12 | +3.19 | 16% Buy | Sell | Buy | 59.15% | +2.36% | -3.50% | -4.78% | -6.02% |
| IVV | S&P 500 Index Ishare | 202.68 | +3.10 | 16% Buy | Sell | Buy | 59.11% | +2.41% | -2.93% | -4.14% | -5.83% |
| IJH | S&P Midcap 400 Index | 143.89 | +4.50 | 8% Sell | Sell | Hold | 58.31% | +1.65% | -4.06% | -6.01% | -7.25% |
| IJR | S&P Smallcap 600 Ind | 113.05 | +6.00 | 24% Buy | Sell | Buy | 60.43% | +2.53% | -4.15% | -4.66% | -7.41% |
| IWC | Russell Microcap Ind | 73.77 | +2.00 | 16% Sell | Sell | Sell | 53.59% | -0.85% | -8.53% | -7.99% | -12.47% |
| QQQ | Powershares QQQ | 106.79 | +10.10 | Hold | Sell | Sell | 57.34% | +1.16% | -0.80% | -0.89% | -6.64% |
| ICF | Realty Majors Cohen | 97.04 | +7.30 | 80% Buy | Sell | Buy | 66.17% | +8.35% | +3.80% | -1.90% | -9.65% |
| JNK | SPDR High Yield Bond | 36.27 | -10.20 | 16% Sell | Sell | Sell | 48.74% | -2.08% | -5.20% | -7.94% | -10.58% |
| EFA | EAFE Index MSCI Isha | 60.93 | -2.40 | 16% Buy | Sell | Buy | 60.31% | +2.51% | -5.24% | -8.04% | -11.06% |
| BKF | BRIC Index MSCI Isha | 32.22 | -15.70 | 24% Buy | Sell | Buy | 61.39% | +6.48% | -9.85% | -20.64% | -22.73% |
| EEM | Emrg Mkts Index MSCI | 35.67 | -13.90 | 24% Buy | Sell | Buy | 63.43% | +6.60% | -7.21% | -16.81% | -19.28% |
| FM | MSCI Frontier 100 | 25.88 | -27.29 | 16% Sell | Sell | Sell | 49.54% | -3.61% | -9.32% | -15.65% | -31.32% |
| OIL | S&P GSCI Crude Oil | 8.83 | -51.80 | 24% Buy | Sell | Buy | 52.65% | +5.75% | -16.30% | -19.95% | -57.85% |
This is how the Value Line Index looked last night:
And this is how it looked on 10/5:
We have upward momentum but not yet a full Bull Market.
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