MORNING CALL 9/27

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, September 27th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.21%) are up +0.23%, although they gave up an even bigger advance due to losses in European stocks. European stocks are down -0.49% at a 1-week low as bank stocks slide. Deutsche Bank AG is down nearly 3% at a fresh record low amid growing concerns that it will need to raise capital, and Commerzbank AG is down 3% after a report said it plans to eliminate 9,000 jobs and suspend dividend payments. Weakness in energy producers is another drag on the overall market with crude oil (CLX16 -1.87%) down -1.44% after Iran said it is unwilling to freeze its crude output at current levels, which dampens expectations that OPEC will reach a deal on production cuts when it meets tomorrow in Algiers. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.84%, Hong Kong +1.09%, China +0.60%, Taiwan closed due to Typhoon Megi, Australia -0.47%, Singapore +0.36%, South Korea +0.81%, India -0.25%. Asian stocks recovered from early losses and closed higher on speculation that U.S. Democratic candidate Clinton won the presidential debate last night with Republican nominee Trump, which eases concern of the effects on foreign trade that Trump would have if he is elected U.S. President. Chinese stocks also received a boost after China Aug industrial profits rose by the most in 3 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ16 +0.11%) are up +2 ticks at a 2-1/2 week high as European banking concerns boost the safe-haven demand for government debt. The yield on the 10-year German bund fell to a 1-1/2-month low of -0.152%.

China Aug industrial profits rose +19.5% y/y, the largest increase in 3 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected unch m/m and +5.1% y/y, Jun -0.07% m/m and +5.13% y/y), (2) Sep Markit services PMI (expected +0.2 to 51.2, Aug -0.4 to 51.0), (3) Sep Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index (expected -2.4 to 98.7, Aug +4.4 to 101.1), (4) Sep Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected +9 to -2, Aug -21 to -11), and (5) Treasury's auction of $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.

Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: FactSet (consensus $1.69), NIKE (0.56), Cintas (1.08).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Fulgent Genetics (FLGT).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, Wolfe Research Power and Gas Leaders Conference on Tue-Wed, Leerink Partners Rare Disease & Immuno Oncology Roundtable Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

CBOE Holdings (CBOE -5.28%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Credit Suisse.

Electronics For Imaging (EFII -0.29%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Needham & Co. with a 12-month target price of $58.

Gilead Sciencies (GILD -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Leerink Partners.

AutoZone (AZO +1.88%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $840.

Consolidated Edison (ED -0.03%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Evercore ISI with a 12-month target price of $76.

Crown Holdings (CCK -0.66%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $65.

Synnex (SNX -0.47%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.73, above consensus of $1.56, and said it sees Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.06-$2.11, higher than consensus of $1.91.

Rice Energy (RICE +0.82%) slipped 4% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 40 million shares of common stock.

Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL -0.38%) dropped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after offering 21 million shares to fund its Vitol Platform purchase.

Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NAT -1.57%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it offered 11 million shares of common stock.

Kite Pharma (KITE +0.75%) climbed 9% in after-hours trading after a study of its Zuma-1 drug showed a better-than-expected 47% complete remission rate in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients.

Array Biopharma (ARRY +81.10%) gained 5% in after-hours trading after the company's binimetinib-encorafenib combo met the primary endpoint of improving progression free survival in a study of melanoma patients.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.21%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.23%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.86%, Dow Jones -0.91%, Nasdaq -0.86%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on negative carryover from a slide in European bank stocks after Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, slumped by more than -7% to a record low on concern that mounting legal exposure will force it to raise more capital. U.S. bank stocks were also undercut by Fed Governor Tarullo's comment that a Fed plan to merge bank stress tests with related capital rules "would generally result in a significant increase in capital requirements."

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16 +0.11%) this morning are up +2 ticks a t a 2-1/2 week high. Monday's closes: TYZ6 +9.00, FVZ6 +4.75. Dec 10-year T-notes on Monday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher on carryover support from a rally in German bund prices to a 2-week high after ECB President Draghi said the Eurozone recovery has less momentum and the ECB will preserve "very substantial" monetary support. T-notes were also boosted by increased safe-haven demand after the slide in stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.061 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0007 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06 (+0.06%). Monday's closes: Dollar index -0.180 (-0.19%), EUR/USD +0.0028 (+0.25%), USD/JPY -0.69 (-0.68%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on strength in EUR/USD which rose to a 1-week high after the German Sep IFO business climate rose to a 2-1/3 year high (+3/2 to 109.5). In addition, USD/JPY fell -0.68% as a sell-off in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX16 -1.87%) this morning is down -66 cents (-1.44%) and Nov gasoline (RBX16 -2.02%) is down -0.0228 (-1.65%). Monday's closes: Nov crude +1.14 (+2.56%), Nov gasoline +0.0229 (+1.69%). Nov crude and gasoline on Monday closed higher with Nov gasoline at a 2-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by the weaker dollar and by comments from Algeria's energy minister who said that Saudi Arabia has offered to cut its crude output back to a Jan level of 10.2 million bpd from Aug's 10.69 million bpd if Iran would agree to cap its output.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/27/2016

		Tuesday, Sep 27
US	0900 ET	Jul S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home prices expected unch m/m and +5.1% y/y, Jun -0.07% m/m and +5.13% y/y.
	0945 ET	Sep Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 51.2, Aug -0.4 to 51.0. Sep Markit composite PMI, Aug -0.3 to 51.5.
	1000 ET	Sep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -2.4 to 98.7, Aug +4.4 to 101.1.
	1000 ET	Sep Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expected +9 to -2, Aug -21 to -11.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
		Wednesday, Sep 28
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.3% with purchase sub-index -6.8% and refi sub-index -7.6%.
	0830 ET	Aug durable goods orders expected -1.4% and -0.5% ex transportation, Jul +4.4% and +1.3% ex transportation. Aug capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts expected -0.1%, Jul +1.5%.
	1000 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic of bank supervision and regulation.
	1010 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (voter) delivers introductory and welcoming comments at the Community Banking in the 21st Century conference.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1130 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion of 2-year floating rate notes.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year T-notes.
	1330 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (non-voter) delivers a keynote address at the research conference Community Banking in the 21st Century.
	1915 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George (voter) speaks at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed titled Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/27/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	7:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.693
Varian Medical Systems Inc	VAR US	8:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2016
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	11:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Jabil Circuit Inc	JBL US	13:00	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2016
Workday Inc	WDAY US	15:15	Analyst Day	Y 2016
NIKE Inc	NKE US	16:15	Q1 2017 Earnings Release	Q1 2017	0.559
NIKE Inc	NKE US	17:00	Q1 2017 Earnings Call	Q1 2017
Cintas Corp	CTAS US	17:00	Q1 2017 Earnings Call	Q1 2017
Cintas Corp	CTAS US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2017 Earnings Release	Q1 2017	1.082
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Day 2	Y 2016
General Mills Inc	GIS US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting	Y 2016

Barchart Morning Call 4/2

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.40%) this morning are up +0.42% on a +1.19% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and reduced concerns about Europe. The Italian 10-year bond yield is down 4 bp this morning and the Cyprus stock market today reopened for the first time in two weeks with a loss of only -2.5%. Asian stocks today closed mixed. The Nikkei index today closed down -1.08%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed +0.31%, and China's CSI 300 index closed -0.27%. Commodity prices this morning are up +0.25%. May crude oil (CLK13 -0.18%) is down -0.08%, May gasoline (RBK13 -0.52%) is down -0.28%, June gold (GCM13 -0.22%) is down -0.19%, May copper (HGK13 -0.06%) is down -0.12%, and agriculture prices are trading mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is virtually unchanged, EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is slightly lower by -0.07%, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09%. June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM13 -0.04%) are down 2 ticks.
The Cyprus General Market Index fell by only -2.5% today after the Cyprus stock market finally reopened after being closed for two weeks during the bailout crisis. Cyprus officials are meeting with troika officials starting today to try to obtain easier bailout terms than on the initial deal.
North Korea now says that it plans to restart the plutonium-based nuclear reactor that was closed in 2007 as part of a disarmament deal. However, the U.S. has said it has still not detected any unusual troop movements in North Korea and therefore is not worried about any major military action from North Korea. The U.S. and South Korea nevertheless worry that North Korea may launch some limited military provocation. South Korea's Kospi stock index today fell moderately by -0.56%.
The Italian political deadlock continues as a 10-person committee formed by President Napolitano tries to negotiate a coalition government. There are only six weeks left until President Napolitano's term ends. The Italian 10-year bond yield today fell by 4 bp to 4.72%, giving back some of last week's 25 bp surge.
Japanese Prime Minister Abe today backed off his strong pressure on the BOJ a bit when he said that the BOJ should not pursue a 2% inflation target "at all costs" and that the BOJ may fail to reach the 2% target. He said in comments to Parliament that, "What is important is to aim steadily for the target." The BOJ at its 2-day meeting on Wed-Thur, the first chaired by the new BOJ Governor Kuroda, is unanimously expected to expand its asset purchase target.
Germany's final-March manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher by +0.1 point to 49.0 from the preliminary report of 48.9. The Eurozone's final-March manufacturing PMI was revised +0.2 points higher to 46.8 from 46.6.
The UK March manufacturing PMI rose by +0.4 points to 48.3 from 47.9 in Feb, which was weaker than market expectations for a +0.8 point increase to 48.7.
The Eurozone Feb unemployment rate was reported at a record 12.0%, up by +0.1 point from the preliminary Jan report of 11.9%, although Jan was revised higher to +12.0%.
The market is waiting for today's German March CPI report, which is expected to ease to +1.3% y/y from +1.5% y/y in Feb. Four of the German states released their CPI reports today and the reports were in line with market expectations, showing increases ranging from +1.3% to +1.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb factory orders report is expected to show an increase of +2.9% m/m, which would more than reverse the -2.0% m/m decline seen in January. Today’s March total vehicle sales report is expected to edge lower to 15.30 million units from 15.33 million in February. In the Russell 1000, McCormick already reported Q1 EPS today of 57 cents (1 cent above the consensus), while Global Payments (consensus $0.89) will report after the close. The only other major earnings reports this week are Monsanto and ConAgra Foods on Wednesday. Conferences this week include Utility Corporate Access Day on Tuesday, Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Tuesday, Boston Biotech Business Development Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Private Builder/Private Equity Conference on Thursday, China Business Conference 2013 in NY on Friday, and Women in the World Summit 2013 on Friday.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.40%) this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.42%) mainly due to the 1.19% rally this morning in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed moderately lower on long liquidation pressure sparked by the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing index. Closes: S&P 500 -0.45%, Dow Jones -.04%, Nasdaq 100 -0.77%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Apple (AAPL -3.11%) today was downgraded to a Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs since Apple's recent product cycle has not been as impressive in user growth or market share as expected.
• Apple's (AAPL -3.11%) iPhone profits likely peaked in 2012 due to smartphone pricing pressure, according to a report released today by Jefferies.
• McCormick (MKC -1.14%) reported Q1 EPS of 57 cents, which was 1 cent above the consensus of 56 cents.
• BGC Partners (BGCP -7.45%) soared by 40% in after-hours trading after announcing the sale of its Treasuries platform to Nasdaq (NDAQ) for $750 million.
• Health insurers rallied in after-hours trading after CMS announced that insurers will get a 3.3% rate increase in 2014 as compared with previous information indicating a 2.3% reduction. Humana (HUM +8.55%) rallied 8%, UnitedHealth (UNH +3.08%) rallied 4%, and Aetna (AET +2.44%) rallied 3%.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.85%) rallied 4% in after-hours trading after the company disclosed in its 10-K that Q1 comparable store sales were up by high single-digits.
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL -1.13%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after reporting disappointing Q1 guidance.
• Nordic American Tanker (NAT -4.59%) fell 10% in after-hours trading after filing a registration statement to sell $87 million of common stock.
• Nuance (NUAN unch) rallied 8% in after-hours trading after Carl Icahn reported a 9.27% passive stake in the company.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.04%) this morning are down 2 ticks. June 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed mildly higher on the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing index. Closes: TYM3 +4.5, FVM3 +3.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is little changed while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is slightly lower by -0.0009 (-0.07%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.09%). The dollar index on Monday closed moderately lower on the drop in the ISM manufacturing index and concerns about whether the U.S. economy is headed for a soft spot. Closes: Dollar index -0.24 (-0.29%), EUR/USD +0.0030 (+0.23%), USD/JPY -0.99 (-1.05%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK13 -0.18%) this morning is slightly lower by -0.08 (-0.08%). May gasoline (RBK13 -0.52%) is down -0.0086 (-0.28%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed slightly lower. WTI crude oil prices were pressured after Exxon on Friday was forced to shut-down its 96,000 bpd Pagasus pipeline carrying crude oil from Illinois to the Gulf Coast due to an oil spill near Mayflower, Arkansas. The shut down is likely to cause a bigger pile-up of oil at Cushing as more oil is diverted from Canada into the Cushing system. Crude oil was also pressured by the consensus for a 2.25 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories in Wednesday’s EIA report. Closes: CLK3 -0.16 (-0.16%), RBK3 -0.0091 (-0.29%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/02/2013

US	0945 ET	Mar New York ISM index, Feb +2.1 to 58.8.
	1000 ET	Feb factory orders expected +2.9% m/m, Jan -2.0% m/m.
	1300 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech entitled “Improving the Outlook with Better Monetary Policy” in Grandforks ND to the Chamber of Commerce.
	1330 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks at Kiwanis Club of Birmingham, Alabama.
	1700 ET	March total vehicle sales expected 15.30 mln, Feb 15.33 mln. March domestic vehicle sales expected 12.08 mln, Feb 11.99 mln.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
	1930 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans discuss “Monetary Policy: Opportunities and Limit” at Virginia Commonwealth University 2013 Spring Investors Circle.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan March vehicle sales, Feb -12.2% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone final-March manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from early-March 46.6.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Feb unemployment rate expected 12.0%, Jan 11.9%.
GER	0355 ET	German final-March manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from early-March 48.9.
	0800 ET	German preliminary March CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Feb +0.6% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Preliminary March CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK March manufacturing PMI expected +0.8 to 48.7, Feb 47.9.
	0430 ET	UK Feb net consumer credit expected +400 mln pounds, Jan +400 mln pounds. Feb net lending secured on dwellings expected +400 mln pounds, Jan +100 mln pounds.
	0430 ET	UK Feb mortgage approvals expected 53,700, Jan 54,700.
	0430 ET	UK Feb M4 money supply, Jan +0.9% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
	1901 ET	UK March BRC shop price index, Feb +1.1% y/y.
CH	2100 ET	China March non-manufacturing PMI (National Bureau of Statistics), Feb -1.7 to 54.5.
	2145 ET	China March HSBC services PMI, Feb -1.9 to 52.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/02/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	4/2/2013	Q1 2013 Earnings Call	Q1 2013
Ford Motor Co	F US	4/2/2013	March 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
Ford Motor Co	F US	4/2/2013	March 2013 Sales and Revenue Call	2013
General Motors Co	GM US	4/2/2013	March 2013 Sales and Revenue Call	2013
Global Payments Inc	GPN US	4/2/2013	Q3 2013 Earnings Call	Q3 2013
Global Payments Inc	GPN US	4/2/2013	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.887
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	4/2/2013	Q1 2013 Earnings Release	Q1 2013	0.564
General Motors Co	GM US	4/2/2013	March 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
LPL Financial Holdings Inc	LPLA US	4/2/2013	Roadshow- Chicago	Y 2013

Barchart Morning Call 3/29

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 2 hrs 33 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.83% and Jun S&Ps down -5.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries rose while stocks and commodities declined after the head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's said Greece will probably have to restructure its debt again and this may involve bailout partners such as European governments. The IMF mission chief to Greece added that while the country has made an "aggressive" fiscal adjustment, it will take at least a decade to fully complete the country's restructuring. Another negative for European stocks and the euro was the unexpected -0.1 point decline in Mar Euro-Zone economic confidence to 94.4, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 94.5. On the positive side, Mar German unemployment fell -18,000, more than expectations of -10,000, while the Mar unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.7%, better than expectations of unchanged at 6.8% and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991. Crude oil prices declined after French Premier Fillon told France Inter Radio that the prospects of an accord between the U.S. and Europe on tapping strategic oil reserves are "good."
• Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.67%, China -1.28%, Australia -0.13%, South Korea -0.93%, India -0.37%. Asian stocks closed lower on concerns China's economic slowdown is weighing on company earnings and after U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected. The yen rose against the dollar, which weakened Japanese exporters, on speculation Japanese companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on Mar 31. A bullish factor for Japanese stocks was the +2.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y increase in Feb Japan retail sales, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.4% y/y, with the +3.5% y/y increase the biggest gain in 1-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index slipped to a 2-1/4 month low on concern the slowing economy is undercutting company earnings. Data from Bloomberg show 505 companies in the Shanghai Composite have released annual earnings with an average profit growth of 17%, compared with 38% growth in the previous year.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading down -5.00 points. The U.S. stock market Wednesday retreated after durable goods orders rose less than forecast and after a slide in crude oil drove energy producers lower: Dow Jones -0.54%, S&P 500 -0.49%, Nasdaq Composite -0.49%. The Nasdaq rallied up to an 11-year high early, but gave up its advance and closed lower. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. durable goods orders (+2.2% and +1.6% ex transportation, weaker than expectations of +3.0% and +1.7% ex transportation), (2) weakness in energy producers after a surge in weekly DOE crude inventories sent oil prices tumbling, and (3) global growth concerns after Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower.
• Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) reduced European sovereign debt concerns after Italy auctioned 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years and after Italian Prime Minister Monti said that the Euro-Zone's debt woes are "almost over," and (2) a rally in oil-tanker companies after Dahlman Rose & Co. said the industry's asset prices may gain as much as 20% within a year as sanctions targeting Iran's crude exports alters trading patterns and reduces a glut in global oil tanker fleets.
• Mosaic (MOS) fell 2.2% in European trading after the company reported Q3 EPS of 64 cents a share, weaker than analysts' estimates of 69 cents, citing lower potash volumes and higher phosphate raw-material costs.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +5 ticks. T-note prices Wednesday moved higher into early afternoon after the Fed bought long-term Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program and Feb durable goods orders rose less than expected but prices faded into the close and settled little changed on lackluster demand for the Treasury's $35 billion 5-year T-note auction: TYM2 -0.5, FVM2 -1.0, EDU2 -0.5. Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. durable goods orders (+2.2% and +1.6% ex transportation, weaker than expectations of +3.0% and +1.7% ex transportation), and (2) the Fed's purchase of $4.81 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an attempt to keep borrowing costs low. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as European sovereign-debt concerns eased after Italy auctioned 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years, (2) slack demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.85, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.89, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $29 billion auction of 7-year T-notes on Thu.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.66 yen and the euro/dollar -0.42 cents. The dollar index Wednesday strengthened after the euro and British pound declined when Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower along with increased safe-haven demand for the greenback after stocks moved lower: Dollar Index +0.079, USD/JPY -0.279, EUR/USD +0.00020. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the British pound and the euro after Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks declined. Bearish factors included (1) euro positive comments from Italian Prime Minister Monti who said that the Euro-Zone's debt woes are "almost over" after a slow initial response by policy makers, (2) Italy's auction of 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years, which reduces the safe-haven demand for the dollar as European debt concerns ease, and (3) a draft statement for Euro-Zone finance ministers that said European governments are preparing for a 1-year increase in the ceiling on rescue funds to 940 billion euros to combat the European debt crisis, which is euro supportive.
• May crude oil prices this morning are down -64 cents a barrel and May gasoline is +0.10 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday tumbled as the dollar rose and after weekly DOE crude oil inventories climbed by the most since July 2010: CLK12 -$1.92, RBK -2.43. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which diminishes investment demand in commodities, (2) the surge in weekly DOE crude stockpiles by the most in 20-months to a 7-month high (+7.10 million bbl to 353.4 million bbl versus expectations of +2.7 million bbl), (3) a possible release of SPR supplies in an attempt to curb rising oil prices after French Budget Minister Pecresse said "France is accompanying the U.S. and U.K. in an IEA consultation that could allow the release of strategic oil reserves in order to break the rising price spiral," and (4) the downward revisions to Q4 U.K. and French GDP, which indicates reduced energy consumption. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly DOE gasoline supplies (-3.54 million bbl versus expectations of -1.55 million bbl) and (2) increased crude consumption in Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, after data showed Japan's utilities use of crude oil for generating power rose +118% in 2011 to 8.8 million kiloliters, or a 4-year high of 400,000 barrels a day, as it runs out of capacity to use liquefied natural gas as a stopgap for idled nuclear-power plants.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): BBY-Best Buy (BEST earnings consensus $2.15), TIBX-TIBCO Software (0.19), FCE-Forest City Enterprises (0.32), SHAW-Shaw Group (0.45), JOSB-JOS A Bank Clothiers (1.58), WOR-Worthington Industries (0.35), NAT-Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (-0.33), CASC-Cascade (1.09), MOV-Movado Group (0.10), XRTX-Xyratex Ltd. (0.26), MAPP-MAP Pharmaceuticals (-0.31).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 3/29/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +2,000 to 350,000, previous -5,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -2,000 to 3.350 million, previous -9,000 to 3.352 million.
0830 ET	Revised Q4 U.S. GDP expected no change at +3.0% annualized, previous +3.0% annualized. Q4 personal consumption, previous +2.1%. Q4 GDP price index, previous +0.9%. Q4 core PCE, previous +1.3% q/q.
1030 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker delivers introductory remarks at the Richmond Fed?s 2012 credit markets symposium on ?Reviving the Credit Markets.?
1215 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on ?The European economic crisis and how it affects you? at a panel discussion at Emory University in Atlanta.
1245 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a lecture (4 of 4) at George Washington University School of Business on ?The Federal Reserve and its Role in Today?s Economy.?
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1300 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook to business leaders at the Rotary Club of Wilmington, DE.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
1845 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks to bankers and students from the University of North Carolina School of Law?s Center for Banking and Finance.
Germany
0355 ET	Mar German unemployment change expected -10,000, Feb unchanged. Mar unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.8%, Feb unchanged at 6.8%.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Feb U.K. net consumer credit expected +0.2 billion pounds, Jan +0.1 billion pounds.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. mortgage approvals expected +57,200, Jan +58,700.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. M4 money supply, Jan +1.6% m/m and -1.8% y/y.
0430 ET	Jan U.K. index of services expected +0.2% m/m and +0.3% 3-mo/3-mo, Dec +0.2% m/m and unchanged 3-mo/3-mo.
1901 ET	Mar U.K. GfK consumer confidence survey expected unchanged at -29, Feb unchanged at -29.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Mar Euro-Zone economic confidence expected +0.1 to 94.5, Feb +1.0 to 94.4. Mar business climate indicator expected +0.02 to -0.16, Feb +0.03 to -0.18.
0500 ET	Revised Mar Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected no change at -19.0.
Canada
0830 ET	Feb Canada industrial product prices expected +0.5% m/m, Jan +0.3% m/m.
0830 ET	Feb Canada raw materials price index expected +0.4% m/m, Jan +0.1% m/m.
Japan
1915 ET	Mar Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Feb -0.2 to 50.5.
1930 ET	Feb Japan jobless rate expected unchanged at 4.6%, Jan +0.1 to 4.6%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.74, Jan0.73.
1930 ET	Feb Japan overall household spending expected -0.5% y/y, Jan -2.3% y/y.
1930 ET	Mar Tokyo CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Feb -0.2% y/y, Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.3% y/y, Feb 0.3% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -1.0% y/y, Feb -1.1% y/y.
1930 ET	Feb Japan national CPI expected unchanged y/y, Jan +0.1% y/y, Feb national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.1% y/y, Jan -0.1% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.9% y/y, Jan -0.9% y/y.
1950 ET	Feb Japan industrial production expected +1.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, Jan +1.9% m/m and -1.3% y/y.

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Barchart Morning Call 3/15

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 1 hr 3 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.12% and Jun S&Ps up +2.40 points. 10-year Treasuries dropped to a 4-1/2 month low and the dollar index fell back from a 1-3/4 month high as the market awaits U.S. reports on unemployment claims and manufacturing activity. The euro rebounded from a 4-week low against the dollar after strong demand was seen at Spanish and French auctions of government debt. Spain sold 3 billion euros of securities maturing between 2015 and 2018 and had a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.13 on 976 million euros of 3.25% notes due in 2016, stronger than the 2.21 ratio seen at a similar auction in Jan, while France sold 3.26 billion euros of benchmark 5-year debt at an average yield of 1.78%, below the 1.93% seen at a similar auction last month. The British pound weakened against the dollar after Fitch Ratings lowered the outlook on Britain's sovereign debt to "negative" from "stable," indicating a "slightly greater" than 50% chance its AAA credit rating will be reduced within 2 years.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan up +0.72%, China -0.75%, Australia -0.22%, South Korea -0.03%, India -1.36%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 month high as a fall in the yen to an 11-month low against the dollar buoyed the earnings outlook for exporters. Mining stocks in Australia and China declined and dragged their respective bourses lower as gold and copper prices slumped. As expected, the RBI kept interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive month after it left India's repurchase rate at 8.5%, although it kept its easing bias intact when it said "recent growth-inflation dynamics have prompted the Reserve Bank to indicate that no further tightening is required and that future actions will be towards lowering the rates."

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.40 points. The U.S. stock market Wednesday fell back from their best levels and settled a tad higher on increased economic optimism from the Fed's upbeat assessment of the economy on Tuesday along with strength in most bank stocks that passed the Fed's stress tests: Dow Jones +0.12%, S&P 500 -0.12%, Nasdaq Composite +0.03%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high, the Dow rose to a 4-year high and the Nasdaq climbed to an 11-year high. Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) carry-over support from Tuesday's rally after the Fed said economic conditions improved, (2) strength in most U.S. bank stocks after the Fed said 15 of the nation's 19 largest banks could maintain adequate capital levels even in a recession, (3) increased economic optimism after the VIX volatility index or "fear gauge" that typically moves in a direction opposite to stock prices, held near Tuesday's 5-year low of 13.99, and (4) reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after Fitch Ratings raised Greece's credit rating 4 levels to B- from restricted default with a stable outlook.
• Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) weakness in insurance companies on speculation the industry may face tighter capital rules, (2) comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker who said he sees a "long slog" before the U.S. attains adequate economic growth, and (3) the surge in the 10-year T-note yield to a 4-1/4 month high of 2.287%.
• Guess? (GES) may be active on the downside today after the company forecast full-year earnings of no more than $2.65 a share, well below analysts' estimates of $3.16 a share.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -7 ticks. T-note prices Wednesday plunged to a 3-1/4 month low on carry-over weakness from Tuesday's slide in prices after the Fed's upbeat assessment of the economy reduced speculation for further easing: TYM2 -1-11.5/32, FVM2 -23.7, EDU2 -1.0. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 4-1/4 month high of 2.287%. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) increased inflation expectations after the 10-year break-even rate, a gauge of the outlook for consumer prices derived from the difference between yields on conventional and inflation-linked bonds, rose to 2,39 bp, the highest in 7-1/2 months, (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the S&P 500 climbed to a 3-3/4-year high and after Fitch Ratings raised Greece's credit rating 4 levels to B- from restricted default with a stable outlook, and (3) technical selling as T-note prices accelerated lower to their lowest level this year. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Feb U.S. import price index (+0.4% m/m and +5.5% y/y versus expectations of +0.6% m/m and +5.9% y/y with the +5.5% annual gain the smallest increase in 14 months, and (2) decent demand for the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.70, stronger than the 12-auction average of 2.68.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.24 yen and the euro/dollar +0.16 cents. The dollar index Wednesday rallied to a 1-3/4 month high as interest rate differentials moved in the dollar's favor and after the yen plunged to an 11-month low against the dollar after a MOF official said Japan's fiscal situation is worse than Greece: Dollar Index +0.372, USD/JPY +0.785, EUR/USD -0.00509. Bullish factors included (1) improved U.S. interest rate differentials that increases demand for dollars after the spread between U.S. and German 2-year note yields increased to 17 bp, the most since June 2010, (2) weakness in the yen after the International Bureau at Japan's MOF said Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 230% and that the large amount of the nation's debt held by domestic financial institutions makes the Japanese financial system more vulnerable to fiscal shocks than Europe, and (3) the fall in the euro to a 3-week low against the dollar after Jan Euro-Zone industrial production was weaker than expected. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Q4 U.S. current account balance which widened to a deficit of -$124.1 billion, the most in 3 years and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after Fitch Ratings raised Greece's credit rating 4 levels to B- from restricted default with a stable outlook on optimism that a debt swap will reduce the risk that Greece reneges on its debt obligations.
• Apr crude oil prices this morning are up +17 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is -0.80 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled lower as a stronger dollar and Saudi comments that it will meet any supply shortages overshadowed record Chinese crude imports: CLJ12 -$1.28, RBJ -0.76. Apr gasoline posted a 1-1/2 week high but erased its gains and closed lower. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly DOE distillate supplies to a 3-1/2 month low (-4.68 million bbl to 134.8 million bbl versus expectations of -1.45 million bbl) and (2) strong crude demand in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, after Feb China crude imports rose to a record 23.64 MMT, up +1% m/m and +18.5% y/y. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the as-expected +1.75 million bbl increase in weekly DOE crude stockpiles to a 6-month high of 347.4 million bbl, and (3) comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who said "Saudi Arabia and others remain poised to make good any shortfall, perceived or real, in global crude supplies."

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): ROST-Ross Stores (BEST earnings consensus $0.85), AMCX-AMC Networks (0.60), SCHL-Scholastic (-0.70), PWRD-Perfect World Co. Ltd. (0.56), RNF-Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (0.63), DOLE-Dole Food (-0.09), QRE-QR Energy LP (0.37), CATO-Cato Corp. (0.34), NAT-Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (-0.34), GEVA-Synageva BioPharma (-0.38), GTY-Getty Realty (0.48), MAPP-MAP Pharmaceuticals (-0.29).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 3/15/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -5,000 to 357,000, previous +8,000 to 362,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -8,000 to 3.408 million, previous +10,000 to 3.416 million.
0830 ET	Mar Empire manufacturing index expected -2.0 to 17.5, Feb +6.0 to 19.5.
0830 ET	Feb PPI expected +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +4.1% y/y. Feb PPI ex food and energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Jan +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
0900 ET	Jan net long-term TIC flows expected +$38.5 billion, Dec+$17.9 billion.
1000 ET	Mar Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +1.8 to 12.0, Feb +2.9 to 10.2.
1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Mar 22 (previous $15 billion).
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	ECB publishes monthly report for March.
0600 ET	Q4 Euro-Zone employment, Q3 -0.1% q/q and +0.3% y/y.
0600 ET	Q4 Euro-Zone labor costs expected +2.3% y/y, Q3 +2.7% y/y.
n/a	G-20 begins 2-day summit in Mexico City.

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Barchart Morning Call 3/1

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 53 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.67% and Mar S&Ps up +3.60 points. The dollar and Treasuries are lower and commodities gained as Spanish borrowing costs declined. Spain sold 4.5 billion euros of debt, its maximum target, with the 3-year notes yielding 2.617%, down from 3.332% at a similar auction last month. EU leaders will debate how to increase the region's bailout fund at a 2-day summit starting today in Brussels. European and U.S. stocks received a boost after Feb China PMI manufacturing expanded more than expected, while Feb German PMI was unexpectedly revised up to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.1. The euro fell back to little changed against the dollar after the Feb Euro-Zone CPI estimate unexpectedly accelerated to +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.6% y/y, while Jan Euro-Zone unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 10.7%, the highest in 14-1/4 years.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.16%, China -0.03%, Australia -1.00%, South Korea closed for holiday, India -0.95%. Asian stocks played catch-up with other global stock bourses as they shed early gains and finished lower. Losses in Japanese stocks were limited after Q4 Japan capital spending excluding software unexpectedly rose +4.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of -7.4% y/y and the largest gain in 4-3/4 years. Chinese stocks were little changed as growth in the manufacturing industry for a third straight month overshadowed concern the nation's tight monetary policies will restrict economic expansion. The Feb China manufacturing PMI rose +0.5 to 51.0, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 50.8 and its best level in 5 months.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.60 points. The U.S. stock market Wednesday fell back from multi-year highs and closed lower after Fed Chairman Bernanke gave no indication the Fed is considering additional stimulus measures: Dow Jones -0.41%, S&P 500 -0.47%, Nasdaq Composite -0.67%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 3-3/4 year highs and the Nasdaq posted an 11-year high, but they all erased their advance and closed lower. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) testimony to Congress from Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he gave no indication the Fed is considering additional easing measures to spur the economy, (2) weakness in energy and raw material producers after a rebound in the dollar prompted long liquidation in most commodities, and (3) profit-taking in stocks after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in the past 3-months up to Wednesday's 3-3/4 year high.
• Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected upward revision to Q4 U.S. GDP (+3.0 annualized versus expectations of no change at 2.8% annualized), (2) the bigger-than-expected increase in the Feb Chicago PMI which expanded at its fastest pace in 10-months (+3.8 to 64.0 versus expectations of +0.8 to 61.0), (3) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the risks of a recession have fallen in recent months as the U.S. economy is accelerating as businesses increase hiring, and (4) the upbeat assessment of the economy in the Fed's Beige book that said the U.S. economy expanded at a "modest to moderate pace" in Jan and early Feb, fueled by manufacturers, including automakers.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -10.5 ticks. T-note prices Wednesday closed lower on strong U.S. economic data along with comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that dampened speculation the Fed will expand its stimulus measures: TYM2 -14.0, FVM2 -7.0, EDU2 +2.5. Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) the unexpected upward revision to Q4 U.S. GDP (+3.0 annualized versus expectations of no change at 2.8% annualized), (2) the bigger-than-expected increase in the Feb Chicago PMI which expanded at its fastest pace in 10-months (+3.8 to 64.0 versus expectations of +0.8 to 61.0), (3) disappointment that Fed Chairman Bernanke failed to hint at QE 3 or any other additional Fed stimulus measures, and (4) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the risks of a recession have fallen in recent months as the U.S. economy is accelerating as businesses increase hiring. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed's purchase of $1.813 billion of long-term Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of shorter-maturity Treasuries in its holdings with longer-term debt to cap borrowing costs and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stock prices weakened.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.13 yen and the euro/dollar +0.09 cents. The dollar index Wednesday recovered from a 2-3/4 month low and settled higher when the euro weakened after European banks took more ECB 3-year loans than expected and after Fed Chairman Bernanke dampened speculation of further Fed easing: Dollar Index +0.464, USDJPY +0.686, EURUSD -0.01332. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the euro after the ECB allotted 529.5 billion euros in 3-year funds to European banks, more than estimates of 470 billion euros, (2) the unexpected decline in Jan French consumer spending for a second month, which is euro negative, and (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said "We have seen some positive developments in the labor market," which dampened speculation the Fed would increase its dollar negative stimulus measures. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the pound which rallied to a 3-1/2 month high against the dollar after Jan U.K. mortgage approvals climbed +58,728, the most in 2-1/2 years and (2) the statement from the IMF that it backs currency intervention as a valid instrument for central banks to use against excessive volatility in foreign-exchange markets.
• Apr crude oil prices this morning are up +21 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is +0.88 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday slipped to 1-week lows on dollar strength but recovered their losses and settled higher on signs the U.S. economy is expanding: CLJ12 +$0.52, RBJ +3.25. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly DOE gasoline stockpiles (-1.60 million bbl versus expectations of -350,000), (2) the unexpected upward revision to Q4 US GDP to 3.0% annualized from 2.8% annualized, which signals increased energy consumption, and (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb Chicago PMI to its best level in 10 months, which signals increased fuel demand. Bearish factors included (1) a rebound in the dollar after the dollar index recovered from a 2-3/4 month low and closed higher, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE crude stockpiles to their highest in 5 months (+4.16 million bbl to 344.9 million versus expectations of +1.1 million bbl), (3) Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony to Congress in which he gave no indications of additional Fed stimulus measures, and (4) Bloomberg data that showed Feb OPEC crude output increased by +255,000 barrels to an average of 31.055 million barrels a day, a 3-1/4 year high.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): KR-Kroger (BEST earnings consensus $0.49), KOS-Kosmos Energy Ltd. (0.11), FL-Foot Locker (0.51), DRC-Dresser-Rand Group (0.94), WRI-Weingarten Realty Investors (0.09), ASNA-Ascena Retail Group (0.67), ESL-Esterline Technologies (0.65), VNR-Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (0.53), DIN-DineEquity (0.87), PRIM-Primoris Services (0.22), SPPI-Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (0.30), PETD-Petroleum Development (0.21), TPC-Tutor Perini (0.75), NAT-Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (-0.34).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 3/1/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 355,000, previous unchanged at 351,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +23,000 to 3.415 million, previous 52,000 to 3.392 million.
0830 ET	Jan personal spending expected +0.4%, Dec unchanged. Jan personal income expected +0.4%, Dec +0.5%. Jan PCE deflator expected +2.3% y/y, Dec +2.4% y/y. Jan PCE core deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
1000 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee.
1000 ET	Jan construction spending expected +1.0%, Dec +1.5%.
1000 ET	Feb ISM manufacturing index expected +0.4 to 54.5, Jan +1.0 to 54.1. Feb ISM prices paid sub-index expected +2.5 to 58.0, Jan +8.0 to 55.5.
1030 ET	Feb ICSC chain store sales, Jan +4.8% y/y.
1030 ET	Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin speaks on the economic outlook at the Unitarian Church in Westport, CT.
1230 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to the Atlanta Fed?s Banking Outlook Conference on the economy and banking.
1700 ET	Feb total vehicle sales expected 14.00 million, Jan 14.13 million. Feb domestic vehicle sales expected 11.0 million, Jan 11.05 million.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
2330 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the CFA?s Economic Forecast Dinner in Honolulu, HI.
Japan
0000 ET	Feb Japan vehicle sales, Jan +40.7% y/y.
1830 ET	Jan Japan job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.72, Dec 0.71. Jan jobless rate expected -0.1 to 4.5%, Dec +0.1 to 4.6%.
1830 ET	Jan Japan overall household spending expected -0.9% y/y, Dec +0.5% y/y.
1830 ET	Feb Tokyo CPI expected -0.2% y/y, Jan -0.3% y/y. Feb Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.4% y/y, Jan -0.4% y/y. Feb Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -1.1% y/y, Jan -1.1% y/y.
1830 ET	Jan Japan national CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Dec -0.2% y/y. Jan national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Dec -0.1% y/y. Jan national CPI ex food & energy expected -1.1% y/y, Dec -1.1% y/y.
France
0130 ET	Q4 French ILO mainland unemployment rate expected +0.2 to 9.5%, Q3+0.2 to 9.3%. Q4 mainland unemployment change, Q3 +37,000.
0350 ET	Revised Feb French PMI manufacturing expected no change at 50.2.
Germany
0355 ET	Revised Feb German PMI manufacturing expected no change at 50.1.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Feb U.K. PMI manufacturing expected -0.1 to 52.0, Jan +2.4 to 52.1.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Feb Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.6% y/y, Jan +2,7% y/y.
0500 ET	Jan Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected unchanged at 10.4%, Dec unchanged at 10.4%.
1100 ET	EU leaders hold a 2-day summit in Brussels.
Canada
0830 ET	Jan Canada industrial product prices expected +0.3% m/m, Dec -0.7% m/m.
0830 ET	Jan Canada raw materials price index expected -0.5% m/m, Dec -2.4% m/m.

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