Morning Call 10/5

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 35 minutes ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.03%) this morning are little changed, up +0.01%, ahead of speeches later this morning from Fed Governor Powell and Fed Presidents Harker and Williams. The speech from Fed Governor Powell may be given added scrutiny with reports that he is on President Trump's shortlist of candidates to replace Fed Chair Yellen. European stocks are unchanged as the markets weigh the situation in Spain where the state of Catalonia is trying to secede from Spain and form its own independent republic. Spain's IBEX Stock Index is up 1.15% and is giving a boost to European stocks after Spanish Economy Minister Guindos said that banks in Catalonia have indicated they are open to moving their headquarters elsewhere if the situation in the state worsens. Guindos also said that Catalonia's actions are illegal and independence is out of the question and that Spain has nothing to discuss with the secessionists until rule of law is restored. GBP/USD tumbled -0.49% to a 3-week low on reports that UK Prime Minister May could face a leadership rebellion within her own party with up to 30 Tory lawmakers prepared to sign a letter calling for her resignation. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.01%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia -0.01%, Singapore +0.78%, India -0.25%. China, Hong Kong and South Korea are all closed for holidays.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.22%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.06%) are up +2.5 ticks.

UK Sep new car registrations fell -9.3% y/y to 426,170 and year-to-date are down -3.9% to 2,066.411.

The German Sep Markit construction PMI fell -1.5 to 53.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 8-months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep Challenger job cuts (Aug +5.1% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -7,000 to 265,000, previous +12,000 to 272,000) and continuing claims (expected +16,000 to 1.950 million, previous -45,000 to 1.934 million), (3) Aug trade balance (expected -$42.7 billion, Jul -$43.7 billion), (4) Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on Treasury markets and Treasury market practices at an event in New York, (5) San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers keynote speech at the St. Louis Fed’s Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference, (6) Aug factory orders (expected +1.0%, Jul -3.3% and +0.5% ex transportation), (7) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks at the “Investing in America’s Workforce” conference, (8) Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter) speaks at the “Investing in America’s Workforce” conference, (9) USDA weekly Export Sales.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Costco (consensus $2.02), Constellation Brands (2.17), Global Payments (1.10), Yum China Holdings (0.56).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Switch (SWCH).

Equity conferences this week: Petaluma Area Chamber of Commerce Business Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Microsoft (MSFT +0.58%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord Genuity with a price target of $86.

United Parcel Service (UPS -0.59%) and FedEx (FDX -0.75%) are both down over 2% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg News reported that Amazon.com is currently testing its own delivery service.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH +2.28%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Level 3 in the S&P 500 before the open of trading on Friday, Oct 13.

Mallinckrodt (MNK -0.61%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Canaccord Genuity.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD +0.72%) rallied over 5% in after-hours trading after the FDA granted 'Breakthrough Therapy Designation' to its Pimavanserin for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with dementia-related psychosis.

Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.56%) climbed almost 5% in after-hours trading after it reported September comparable sales were up +9.3%, better than consensus of +2.9%, and then raised guidance on Q3 net sales to $241 million-$243 million from a prior estimate of $236 million-$241 million.

Monsanto (MON +0.05%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.

SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS +4.60%) rose almost 4% in after-hours trading after Merlin Entertainment is said to have approached SeaWorld on a deal for part of the company.

Matador Resources (MTDR -1.26%) may open lower today after it announced that it had commenced an underwritten public offering of 8.0 million shares of its common stock.

8Point3 Energy Partners LP (CAFD +1.21%) lost almost 2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q4 revenue of $12 million-$15 million, the midpoint below consensus of $14.6 million.

ImmunoGen (IMGN +2.35%) dropped 8% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer 12 million shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering.

MobileIron (MOBL -2.60%) jumped over 9% in after-hours trading after holder Altai Capital reported a 7.63% stake in the company as of Oct 2.

Fairmont Santrol Holdings (FMSA -3.85%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it was re-initiated an 'Overweight' rating at Keybanc Capital Markets with a price target of $6.50.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.03%) this morning are up +0.25 points (+0.01%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.06%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday posted a new record high and closed higher on the rise in the U.S. Sep ISM non-manufacturing index by +4.5 points to 59.8, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 55.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 12 years. Stocks were also supported by increased speculation that President Trump may select Jerome Powell over Kevin Warsh for Fed chairman, which may lead to easier monetary policy as Powell is seen as more dovish than Warsh.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.06%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ7 unch, FVZ7 unch. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed little changed. T-note prices were undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Sep ISM non-manufacturing index to a 12-year high and by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high. T-note prices were supported by speculation that President Trump may be leaning toward Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Fed Chair, which is seen a supportive for T-notes since Powell is one of the more dovish choices for Fed Chair compared to other candidates.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.103 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.13%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.25 (-0.22%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.039 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.13%), USD/JPY -0.09 (-0.08%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed little changed. The dollar was supported by the jump in the U.S. Sep ISM non-manufacturing index to a 12-year high and by the increase in 10-year T-note yields, which boosts the dollar's interest rate differentials. The dollar was undercut by increased speculation that President Trump may select Jerome Powell over Kevin Warsh for Fed chairman, which would be negative for the dollar since Powell is seen as more dovish than Warsh.

Nov crude oil (CLX17 +0.34%) this morning is up +9 cents (+0.18%) and Nov gasoline (RBX17 +1.59%) is +0.0215 (+1.36%). Wednesday's closes: Nov WTI crude -0.44 (-0.87%), Nov gasoline +0.0150 (+0.96%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude oil prices found support on the -6.02 million bbl decline in EIA crude inventories (a much bigger decline than expectations of -500,000 bbl) and strong foreign demand for U.S. crude after U.S. crude exports rose +33% in the week of Sep 29 to a record 1.98 million bpd. Crude oil prices were undercut by the +0.1% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Sep 29 to 9.561 million bpd, a new 2-year high, and by the +1.53 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI crude futures.

Metals prices this morning are hogher with Dec gold (GCZ17 +0.29%) +4.3 (+0.34%), Dec silver (SIZ17 +0.28%) +0.071 (+0.43%) and Dec copper (HGZ17 +0.74%) +0.022 (+0.73%). Wednesday's closes: Dec gold +2.2 (+0.17%), Dec silver -0.026(-0.16%), Dec copper -0.0045 (-0.15%). Metals on Wednesday settled mixed. Metals prices found support on increased safe-haven demand for precious metals on political tensions in Spain where the state of Catalonia wants to secede from Spain and form its own independent republic. Metals prices were also boosted by the increase in the U.S. Sep ISM non-manufacturing index to a 12-year high, a sign of economic strength that is positive for industrial metals demand. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/05/2017

		Thursday, Oct 5
US	0730 ET	Sep Challenger job cuts, Aug +5.1% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -7,000 to 265,000, previous +12,000 to 272,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +16,000 to 1.950 million, previous -45,000 to 1.934 million.
	0830 ET	Aug trade balance expected -$42.7 billion, Jul -$43.7 billion.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0910 ET	Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on Treasury markets and Treasury market practices at an event in New York.
	0915 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers keynote speech at the St. Louis Feds Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference.
	1000 ET	Aug factory orders expected +1.0%, Jul -3.3% and +0.5% ex transportation.
	1000 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks at the Investing in Americas Workforce conference.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $20 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $12 billion) to be auctioned Oct 11-12.
	1630 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter) speaks at the Investing in Americas Workforce conference.
		Friday, Oct 6
US	0830 ET	Sep non-farm payrolls expected +80,000, Aug +156,000. Sep private payrolls expected +74,000, Aug +165,000. Sep manufacturing payrolls expected +8,000, Aug +36,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 4.4%, Aug +0.1 to 4.4%.
	0830 ET	Sep avg hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Sep avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.4 hours, Aug -0.1 to 34.4 hours.
	0915 ET	Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) speaks at the Investing in Americas Workforce conference.
	1000 ET	Aug wholesale trade sales expected unch m/m, Jul -0.1% m/m. Revised Aug wholesale inventories expected unchanged at +1.0%, prelim-Aug +1.0% m/m.
	1215 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley (voter)will deliver a speech on The Monetary Policy Outlook and the Importance of Higher Education for Economic Mobility at an event in New York.
	1245 ET	Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A at an Investing in Americas Workforce conference in Dallas.
	1500 ET	Aug consumer credit expected +$15.54 billion, Jul +$18.499 billion.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/05/2017

Name	Ticker	Time	Description	Period	Estimate
Constellation Brands Inc	STZ US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	2.166
Leucadia National Corp	LUK US	08:30	Investor Meeting
Clorox Co/The	CLX US	09:00	Analyst Day
Constellation Brands Inc	STZ US	10:30	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18
Telephone & Data Systems Inc	TDS US		Roadshow - Day 4
United States Cellular Corp	USM US		Roadshow - Day 4
RPM International Inc	RPM US		Annual General Meeting
Global Payments Inc	GPN US		Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	1.098
Leucadia National Corp	LUK US		Investor Day
Symantec Corp	SYMC US	12:00	Annual General Meeting
Oracle Corp	ORCL US	14:00	Analyst Meeting
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	16:15	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	2.017
Yum China Holdings Inc	YUMC US	16:30	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	0.564
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	17:00	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Yum China Holdings Inc	YUMC US	20:00	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17

MORNING CALL 6/14

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, June 14th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.19%) are down -0.21% at a 3-week low and European stocks are down -1.11% at a 3-1/2 month low on growing uncertainty about the UK's future in the European Union. Increasing odds that Britain will vote yes to Brexit in the Jun 23 referendum has undercut GBP/USD as it falls -0.73% to a 2-month low, sent the German 10-year bund yield below zero for the first time and government bond yields fell to record lows in Australia and Japan. Strength in the dollar has also undercut commodity prices with July WTI crude (CLN16 -1.19%) down -1.37% at a 1-week low. The Fed begins its 2-day policy meeting today and although the market is expecting no change in Fed policy, the post-FOMC statement and comments from Fed Chair Yellen will be parsed for clues as to when the Fed may raise interest rates again. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan-1.00%, Hong Kong -0.61%, China +0.32%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia -2.06%, Singapore -0.61%, South Korea -0.29%, India unchanged. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index dropped to a 2-month low as exporter tocks sold-off after USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/4 month low. China's Shanghai Composited erased losses and closed higher on speculation that MSCI will announce on Wednesday whether China's domestic equities will be added to its global benchmark indexes.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) is up +0.44% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.58% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36% at a 1-1/4 month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.20%) are up +10.5 ticks at a new contract high as global government bond markets rally on Brexit concerns and equity market weakness.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May retail sales (expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Apr +1.3% and +0.8% ex autos), (2) May import price index (expected +0.7% m/m and -5.9% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and -5.7% y/y), (3) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting, and (4) Apr business inventories (expected +0.2%, Mar +0.4%).

There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings todayL John Wiley (consensus $0.67).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: Piper Jaffray Heartland Summit on Tue, Wells Fargo Food & Food Retail Forum on Tue, William Blair & Company Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Wed, and RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Technology Investor Day on Thu

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO -1.72%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month price target of $110.

Navistar International (NAV -0.60%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a 12-month price target of $10.

Spectra Energy (SE -0.75%) was awarded a 168-mile intrastate natural gas pipeline project by Mexico's Comision Federal de Electrcidad valued at $1.5 billion.

LinkedIn (LNKD +46.64%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS -0.45%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham & Co.

Vonage (VG +1.72%) rallied nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.

Baidu (BIDU -0.44%) slumped 8% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q2 revenue to $2.807 billion-$2.823 billion from an April 28 view of $3.119 billion-$3.192 billion.

Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM +1.87%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it said it identifies material weakness related to accounting for significant transactions.

Tailored Brands (TLRD -1.81%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading on signs in insider buying after COO Bruce Thorn bought 21,600 shares at $11.52 and General Counsel A. Alexander Rhodes bought 8,700 shares at $11.62.

Minerva Neurosciences (NERV +0.50%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it proposed a public offering of common stock.

ImmunoGen (IMGN -0.20%) tumbled 11% in after-hours trading after it announced a $100 million offering of convertible senior notes

KemPharm (KMPH -5.41%) plunged over 30% in after-hours trading after the company said the FDA did not approve its painkiller Apadaz.

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA +0.50%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after Chief Medical Officer William Shanahan was terminated effective immediately.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.19%) this morning are down -4.25 points (-0.21%) at a new 3-week low. Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.86%. The S&P 500 on Monday sold off to a 2-1/2 week low and closed lower on Monday's -3.21% decline in China's Shanghai Composite and on heightened Brexit concerns as the latest polls show that the June 23 Brexit vote is too close to call, which sent European stocks tumbling to a 3-1/2 month low. Stocks received some underlying support from a rally in mining stocks and raw-material producers as gold and silver prices rose to 1-month highs.

September 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.20%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks at a fresh contract high. Monday's closes: TYU6 +7.50, FVU6 +5.75. Sep T-notes on Monday climbed to a fresh contract high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with Brexit concerns and the sell-off in stocks. T-notes also received a boost from reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate tumbled to a 2-3/4 month low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) this morning is up +0.411 (+0.44%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0066 (-0.58%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.36%) at a 1-1/4 month low. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.209 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0041 (+0.36%), USD/JPY -0.71 (-0.66%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced Fed rate-hike expectations with the upcoming Brexit vote and on the continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/4 month low on safe-haven demand for the yen.

July WTI crude oil (CLN16 -1.19%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.37%) at a 1-week low. July gasoline (RBN16 -0.58%) is down -0.0102 (-0.66%) at a 1-month low. Monday's closes: CLN6 -0.19 (-0.39%), RBN6 -0.0234 (-1.50%). July crude and gasoline on Monday closed lower with July crude at a 1-week low and July gasoline at a 1-month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low and by carryover weakness from Friday's Baker Hughes report that U.S. oil rigs rose for a second week. Crude oil prices were supported by a weaker dollar and by oil supply concerns after EIA data showed that global oil disruptions reached an average 3.8 million bpd in May, the most since the EIA began tracking the data in 2011.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/14/2016

		Tuesday, June 14, 2016
US	0830 ET	May retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Apr +1.3% and +0.8% ex autos. May retail sales ex auto & gas expected +0.3%, Apr +0.6%.
	0830 ET	May import price index expected +0.7% m/m and -5.9% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and -5.7% y/y.
	0930 ET	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
	1000 ET	Apr business inventories expected +0.2%, Mar +0.4%.
JPN	0030 ET	Revised Japan Apr industrial production, prelim-Apr +0.3% m/m and -3.5% y/y. Apr capacity utilization, Mar +3.2% m/m.
UK	0430 ET	UK May CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y. May core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Apr +1.2% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May RPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. May RI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.5%, Apr +1.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May PPI input prices expected +0.9% m/m and -5.1% y/y, Apr +0.9% m/m and -6.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May PPI output prices expected +0.3% m/m and -0.5% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and -0.7% y/y. May PPI output core expected +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr ONS house price, Apr +9.0% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Apr industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Mar -0.8% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Q1 employment, Q4 +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y.
		Wednesday, June 15, 2016
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +9.3% with purchase sub-index +11.7% and refi sub-index +7.4%.
	0830 ET	May PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and unch y/y. May PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
	0830 ET	Jun Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +4.77 to -4.25, May -18.58 to -9.02.
	0915 ET	May industrial production expected -0.2%, Apr +0.7%. May manufacturing production expected unchanged, Apr +0.3%. May capacity utilization expected -0.2 to 75.2%, Apr +0.5 to 75.4%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1400 ET	FOMC announces interest rate decision and releases economic projections. Fed Chair Yellen holds press conference.
JPN	0200 ET	Revised Japan May machine tool orders, prelim -25.0% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK May jobless claims change expected unch, Apr -2,400. May claimant count rate expected unch at 2.1%.
	0430 ET	UK Apr average weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y. Apr weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +2.1% 3-mo avg y/y.
	0430 ET	UK ILO unemployment rate expected +5.1% for the three months through Apr, previous 5.1% for the three months through Mar.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/14/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.665
Best Buy Co Inc	BBY	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
MetLife Inc	MET	11:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
FireEye Inc	FEYE	14:00	Annual General Meeting
Starz	STRZA	15:00	Annual General Meeting
Monster Beverage Corp	MNST	16:20	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
athenahealth Inc	ATHN	17:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Staples Inc	SPLS		Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Affiliated Managers Group Inc	AMG		Annual General Meeting
Spirit Airlines Inc	SAVE		Annual General Meeting
Live Nation Entertainment Inc	LYV		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/12

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, June 12th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.08%) this morning are up +0.03% and European stocks are unchanged after China's money supply and new loans grew more than expected last month, a sign of economic growth. European stocks also received a boost after Eurozone Apr industrial production rose at the fastest pace in 5 months. Another positive for stocks was the action by the Kiel Institute to raise its German 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from a 1.9% estimate in Mar. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.64%, Hong Kong -0.35%, China -0.34%, Taiwan -0.27%, Australia -0.46%, Singapore +0.09%, South Korea -0.23%, India +0.40%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. July crude oil (CLN14 +1.48%) is up +1.48% at an 8-3/4 month high on supply concerns after Islamist militants extended control over northern areas of Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC. Iraqi forces, backed by air power, are attempting to check the rapid advance of militants known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) after the militants seized Mosul, the largest city in northern Iraq earlier this week. July gasoline (RBN14 +1.42%) is up +1.42% at a 1-1/2 month high. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.35%) is up +0.38%. July copper (HGN14 +0.02%) is up +0.03%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unchanged. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.06%) are down -3.5 ticks.
China May new yuan loans were 870.8 billion yuan, more than expectations of 750.0 billion yuan. China M2 money supply, the broadest measure of money supply, rose +13.4% y/y, better than expectations of +13.1% y/y and the strongest pace of growth in 5 months.
Eurozone Apr industrial production rose +0.8% m/m, better than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the fastest pace in 5 months. On an annual basis Apr industrial production climbed +1.4% y/y, better than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
The German May wholesale price index fell -0.1% m/m and -0.9% y/y, the eleventh consecutive month that wholesale prices have declined on an annual basis.
Japan Apr machine orders fell -9.1% m/m and rose +17.6% y/y, better than expectations of -10.8% m/m and +13.3% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small decline of -2,000 to 310,000, reversing part of last week’s increase of +8,000 to 312,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +2,000 to 2.605 million following last week’s decline of -20,000 to 2.603 million. Today’s May retail sales report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6% and +0.4% ex-autos. Strength in May retail sales would follow the pause that consumers took in April when retail sales rose by only +0.1% overall and were unchanged ex-autos. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $62 billion coupon package.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, 2nd Annual Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed-Thu, Drexel Hamilton Aerospace and Defense Conference on Thu, and Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. Utility & Infrastructure Symposium on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Statoil (STO -0.75%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Argus kept a 'Buy' rating on Apache (APA +0.38%) and raised its price target on the stock to $118 from $103.
Lufthansa (DLAKY -14.25%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU -2.59%) fell 7% in pre-market trading after the company lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.71-$1.76 from $1.80-$1.90, below consensus of $1.89.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.07%) rose 1.2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Sell.'
Senator Investment Group reported a 5.5% passive stake in Peabody (BTU +0.37%) .
ImmunoGen (IMGN -1.30%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at UBS.
Vale (VALE -0.15%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Achillion (ACHN -6.42%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Restoration Hardware (RH +2.82%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, well above consensus of 11 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.24-$2.30 from $2.14-$2.22, higher than consensus of $2.20.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.08%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) global economic concerns that fueled long liquidation pressure in stocks after the World Bank lowered its 2014 global growth forecast to 2.8% from a Jan estimate of 3.2%, and (2) concern about increased gridlock in Washington D.C. after U.S. House Majority leader Cantor lost his primary election to a Tea Party-backed candidate in Virginia. Closes: S&P 500 -0.35%, Dow Jones -0.60%, Nasdaq -0.08%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.06%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 4-week low and closed higher on (1) increased safe-haven demand with the slide in stocks, and (2) the World Bank’s cut in its global 2014 economic growth forecast. Closes: TYU4 +2.00, FVU4 +2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.005 (-0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unch. The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the World Bank’s cut in its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to 2.1% from Jan’s estimate of 2.8%, and (2) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low on speculation the BOJ will refrain from expanding stimulus measures when it meets on Thursday. Closes: Dollar Index -0.032 (-0.04%), EUR/USD -0.0016 (-0.12%), USD/JPY -0.276 (-0.27%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +1.48%) this morning is up +$1.54 a barrel (+0.148%) at an 8-3/4 month high. July gasoline (RBN14 +1.42%) is up +0.0425 (+1.42%) at a 1-1/2 month high. July crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with July gasoline at a 1-1/2 week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -198,000 bbl slide in inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 5-1/2 yr low of 21.17 million bbl, and (2) the -2.596 bbl decline in EIA crude inventories to a 2-month low of 386.93 million bbl, more than expectations of -2.0 million bbl. Crude prices fell back from their best levels on demand concerns after U.S. fuel consumption in the week ended Jun 6 fell -3.0% w/w to 18.025 million bpd, the lowest in a year. Closes: CLN4 +0.05 (+0.05%) RBN4 +0.0275 (+0.92%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/12/2014

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 310,000, previous +8,000 to 312,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.605 million, previous -20,000 to 2.603 million.
	0830 ET	May retail sales expected +0.6% and +0.4% ex autos, Apr +0.1% and unch ex autos.
	0830 ET	May import prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Apr -0.4% m/m and -0.3% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Apr business inventories expected +0.4%, Mar +0.4%.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 30-year TIPS to be auctioned Jun 19.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
GER	0200 ET	German May wholesale price index, Apr +0.2% m/m and -1.3% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	ECB publishes monthly report.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Apr industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Mar -0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/12/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Lands' End Inc	LE US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	May 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
CONSOL Energy Inc	CNX US	8:00	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Hanover Insurance Group Inc/The	THG US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Biogen Idec Inc	BIIB US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc	OHI US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Visteon Corp	VC US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Equity Residential	EQR US	14:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
CR Bard Inc	BCR US		FDA Adcomm, Lutonix 035 Drug Coated Balloon (PTA) Catheter
Alliant Energy Corp	LNT US		Roadshow-Day 3	Y 2014
Jarden Corp	JAH US		Annual General Meeting
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Paris	Y 2014
Penn National Gaming Inc	PENN US		Annual General Meeting
Gulfport Energy Corp	GPOR US		Annual General Meeting
TripAdvisor Inc	TRIP US		Annual General Meeting