MORNING CALL 4/11

MORNING CALL

Monday, April 11th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.36%) are up +0.42%, led by a +3.4% gain in Alcoa ahead of U.S. Q1 company earnings results that begin after the close of trading today. A possible increase in M&A activity is also positive for stocks with Yahoo! Inc. up over 1% in pre-market trading after the parent of the UK's Daily Mail said it is in talks with potential bidders for Yahoo. European stocks are up +1.09% as a rally in Italian bank stocks leads European equities higher on optimism a meeting today between the Italian central bank and bank executives will help lead to a reduction of banks' non-performing loans. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.44%, Hong Kong +0.35%, China +1.64%, Taiwan +0.25%, Australia -0.12%, Singapore +0.03%, South Korea +0.12%, India +1.41%. China's Shanghai Composite closed higher on signs of economic improvement in China after China Mar producer prices increased month-on-month for the first time since September 2013. A sell-off in Japanese export stocks undercut the Nikkei Stock Index after USD/JPY tumbled to a fresh 17-1/2 month low, which reduces earnings prospects of Japanese exporters.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.08% at a 5-3/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.08%) are down -4 ticks.

Italian Treasury and central bank officials will meet with executives of major Italian banks today to discuss the creation of a fund that would help tackle banks' non-performing loans, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Italian government is seeking to reduce an estimated 360 billion euros ($410 billion) in bad loans and earlier this year struck a deal with the European Commission to allow banks to bundle their bad loans into securities for sale.

China Mar CPI rose +2.3% y/y, a slower pace of increase than expectations of +2.4% y/y. Mar PPI fell -4.3% y/y, a slower pace of decline than expectations of -4.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) New York Fed President William Dudley's keynote speech at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development Annual Community Development Conference in New York, and (2) Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan's speech at a community forum at Louisiana Tech University.

There is 1 of Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.02).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: Goldman Sachs Alzheimer Symposium on Mon, IPAA Oil & Gas Investment Symposium on Mon-Tue, Needham Healthcare Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Cars Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alcoa (AA -1.16%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading before it releases its Q1 earnings results after today's close.

Yahoo! (YHOO -0.28%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after the parent company of the UK's Daily Mail said it is in talks with a number of potential bidders for Yahoo.

United Natural Foods (UNFI -1.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +1.82%) was rate a new 'Buy' at Nomura with a price target of $95.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT -0.50%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at HSBC.

Noble (NE +1.92%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy at Societe Generale.

Restaurant Brands International (QSR -0.78%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital Markets.

Cummins (CMI +1.13%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.

Valero Energy (VLO +2.27%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.

United Continental (UAL -0.15%) slipped nearly 1% in after-hours trading after the company reported March traffic was down -1.5% and its Mar consolidated load factor fell -1.1 points versus Mar 2015.

QLogic (QLGC +6.80%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported the company hired Qatalyst Partners to explore strategic alternatives for the company, including a possible sale.

Boston Scientific (BSX +0.10%) fell nearly 1% in after-hours trading after it voluntarily recalled its Fetch 2 aspiration catheter due to complaints of shaft breakage.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.36%) this morning are up +8.50 points (+0.42%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow Jones +0.20%, Nasdaq -0.01%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed higher on the +6.6% rally in crude oil prices to a 1-1/2 week high, which boosted energy producer stocks, and on New York Fed President Dudley's comment that the uncertainty of the U.S. economy calls for "gradual" interest rate increases. Stocks fell back from their best levels on the -0.5% decline in U.S. Feb wholesale inventories (which will undercut Q1 GDP) and on long liquidation ahead of Q1 earnings season which begins on Monday.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.08%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 -7.00, FVM6 -3.00. Jun T-notes on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and on the sharp rally in crude oil to a 1-1/2 week high, which boosted inflation expectations.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.076 (-0.08%) at a 5-3/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.12%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.247 (-0.26%), EUR/USD +0.0021 (+0.18%), USD/JPY -0.14 (-0.13%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on dovish comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said that the uncertainty of the U.S. economy calls for "gradual" interest rate increases. In addition, EUR/USD gained support from the larger-than-expected +1.3% m/m gain in German Feb exports, the biggest increase in 5 months.

May WTI crude oil (CLK16 -0.58%) is down -2 cents (-0.05%). May gasoline (RBK16 -0.13%) is up +0.0043 (+0.29%). Friday's closes: CLK6 +2.46 (+6.60%), RBK6 +0.0825 (+5.97%). May crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed sharply higher with May crude at a 1-1/2 week high and May gasoline at a 1-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and the outlook for lower U.S. crude oil production after Baker Hughes reported that U.S. active oil rigs last week fell by -8 rigs to a 6-1/3 year low of 354 rigs.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/11/2016

US	0925 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley delivers the keynote speech at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development Annual Community Development Conference in New York.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1300 ET	Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan speaks at a community forum at Louisiana Tech University.
	1600 ET	USDA Weekly Crop Progress.
UK	1901 ET	UK Mar BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.4% y/y, Feb +0.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/11/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Liberty Media Corp	LMCA US	15:30	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2016
Alcoa Inc	AA US	17:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Alcoa Inc	AA US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.023
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/The	GT US		Annual General Meeting
AO Smith Corp	AOS US		Annual General Meeting

Barchart Morning Call 8/6

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 31 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading mildly higher by +0.18% due to this morning's +0.50% rally in European stocks. Commodity prices this morning are down by an average of -0.51% with Sep crude oil down -0.47%, gold up +0.26%, copper down -0.27%, and agricultural commodities trading mostly lower. The dollar index this morning is up +0.16% and EUR/USD is down -0.19% after Italian Prime Minister Monti said over the weekend that the Eurozone is showing signs of "psychological dissolution." Sep 10-year T-notes are up 6.5 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed higher across the board on carry-over support from last Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. July payroll report of +163,000. Chinese stocks also received a boost from an announcement on Sunday by Chinese securities regulators that allows companies to pay employees up to 30% of their wages with company stock acquired in the secondary market. Closes: Japan +2.00%, Hong Kong +1.69%, China +1.35%, Taiwan +0.95%, Australia +1.21%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +2.27%, India +1.25%, Turkey +0.93%.
• Knight Capital Group reportedly received a $400 million cash infusion over the weekend via a convertible bond investment by several financial firms, thus averting bankruptcy. The capital injection should prevent any fresh disruptions from Knight, which accounts for some 10% of market-making stock trading volume.
• Trading in Spanish stocks at the Bolsas & Mercados Espanoles was halted today at 10:05 AM in Madrid due to a technical default. There was no word on when trading would resume.
• Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said in an interview in Der Spiegel magazine published over the weekend that the Eurozone is showing signs of "psychological dissolution."
• Troika officials over the weekend wrapped up an initial examination of Greece's austerity progress and said they will return in early September. An IMF representative said, "We made a lot of good progress" and said there was agreement that Greece needs to strengthen its policy efforts.
• Japan's June leading index report fell by 2.6 points to 92.6 and was 0.3 points weaker than market expectations of 92.9. The June coincident index fell 2.0 points to 93.8 and was 0.1 point weaker than market expectations of 93.9.
• UK July Halifax house prices fell -0.6% m/m, which was in line with market expectations and reversed part of June's revised +0.8% increase.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 2.50 points (+0.18%) on support from today's 0.50% rally in European stocks. The U.S. stock market Friday rallied up to 3-month highs and settled sharply higher after July U.S. non-farm payrolls rose more than forecast and after Spanish and Italian bond yields fell when members of German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party said they wouldn't stand in the way of additional ECB bond purchases: S&P 500 +1.90%, Dow Jones +1.69%, Nasdaq 100 +1.92%. Another positive for stocks was the larger-than-expected increase in the July ISM non-manufacturing index.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up 6.5 ticks on some short-covering after last Friday's sharp sell-off. Sep 10-year T-note prices Friday plunged to a 1-month low after stocks soared when the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month, which dampens speculation the Fed will need to start a QE 3 asset purchase program to stimulate the economy: TYU2 -23, FVU2 -10. Also, safe-haven demand for Treasuries was reduced after Spanish 10-year bond yields plunged -31 bp and fell back below the critical 7.00% yield level.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.16% with EUR/USD down -0.19% and USD/JPY down -0.20%. The dollar index on Friday settled sharply lower as a rally in stocks curbed the safe-haven demand for the dollar while the euro strengthened after Italian and Spanish bond yields fell when ECB Council member Liikanen said the size of a new ECB bond purchase program would be "adequate to reach its objective" of lowering Italian and Spanish borrowing costs: Dollar index -0.986 (-1.18%), EUR/USD +0.02057 (+1.69%), USD/JPY +0.228 (+0.29%).
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.43 (-0.47%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0306 (-1.04%) on this morning's higher trade in the dollar index and on some long liquidation pressure after last Friday's sharp rally. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday moved sharply higher after the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month along with reduced concern over the European debt crisis after members of German Chancellor Merkel's ruling CDU party said they wouldn't stand in the way of ECB Draghi's plan to buy more government bonds: CLU2 +4.27 (+4.90%), RBU2 +0.0614 (+2.14%). Sep crude posted a 2-week high and Sep gasoline rose to a 2-1/2 month high.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): BRK-Berkshire Hathaway (Consensus $1,780.00), CTSH-Cognizant Technology Solutions (0.86), BXP-Boston Properties (0.43), VNO-Vornado Realty Trust (-0.07), PAA-Plains All Anerican Pipeline (1.68), HCN-Health Care REIT (0.26), CF-CF Industries Holdings (8.71), CHK-Chesapeake Energy (0.07), HCA-HCA Holdings (0.78), AES-AES Corp. (0.27), BAP-Credicorp Ltd. (2.29), CXO-Concho Resources (0.99), TSN-Tyson Foods (0.55), KOS-Kosmos Energy Ltd. (-0.10), NGLS-Targa Resources Partners LP (0.40), MR-Mindray Medical International (0.46).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Monday 8/6/12
    United States
    0900 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via prerecorded video on "Economic Measurement" at the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, MA.
    1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
    1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
    1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
    Japan
    0100 ET	Japan June leading index CI expected -2.3 to 92.9, May 95.2. June coincident index CI expected -1.9 to 93.9, May 95.8.
    Euro-Zone
    0430 ET	Aug Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence expected -1.4 to -31.0, July -0.7 to -29.6.

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