BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/28

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, March 28th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.27% and European stocks are up +0.84% on speculation that China may boost stimulus to promote economic growth after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that his country has policies in reserve to deal with any economic volatility this year and can't ignore "difficulties and risks" from a slowdown in the economy. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.50%, Hong Kong +1.06%, China -0.17%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +0.31%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.07%, India +0.57%. Also helping to boost European stocks was the larger-than-expected increase in Eurozone Mar economic confidence to the highest in 2-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.39%) is up +0.51% at a 2-1/2 week high. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.01%) is up +0.04%. Apr gold (GCJ14 unch) is up +0.16%. May copper (HGK14 +1.24%) is up +1.39% at a 2-week high after weekly Shanghai copper inventories slipped to a 5-week low. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although Apr hogs are up +0.94% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03% at a 1-month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.11%) are down -6.5 ticks.
Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed may wait until the second half of 2015 before raising interest rates as the "current 1% inflation situation calls for extended policy accommodation" and that he's "concerned that inflation will not pick up quickly enough." Evans comments contrast with Fed Chair Yellen's comments on Mar 19 that the Fed may start to raise rates in the first half of 2015.
Eurozone Mar economic confidence rose +1.2 to 102.4, better than expectations of +0.2 to 101.4 and the highest in 2-1/2 years. The Mar business climate indicator rose +0.03 to 0.39, better than expectations of +0.01 to 0.38 and the highest in 2-1/2 years.
UK Mar GfK consumer confidence rose 2 to -5, better than expectations of +1 to -6 and the highest in 6-1/2 years.
The Japan Feb jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 3.6%, better than expectations of no change at 3.7% and matched its lowest level in 16-years. The Feb job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.01 to 1.05, right on expectations and the highest in 6-1/2 years.
Japan Feb national CPI rose +1.5% y/y. The Feb national CPI ex-fresh food rose +1.3% y/y and the Feb national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.8% y/y, all right on expectations.
Japan Feb overall household spending unexpectedly fell -2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% y/y. It was also the first decline in 6-months and biggest drop in 2-1/4 years.
Japan Feb retail sales rose +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, better than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb personal income report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, matching the +0.3% increase seen in January. Meanwhile, today’s Feb personal spending report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, slightly below Jan’s report of +0.4%. Today’s Feb PCE deflator is expected to ease to +0.9% y/y from +1.2% y/y in January. That would track with the decline seen in the headline Feb CPI to +1.1% from +1.6% in January. Meanwhile, the Feb PCE core deflator is expected to be unchanged from January at +1.1% y/y, matching the current 3-year low posted in January and in several prior months. Today’s final-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 80.5 from the early-March level of 79.9. There are none of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today. There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Finish Line (FINL -3.29%) reported Q4 EPS 87 cents ex-items, better than consensus of 85 cents.
BlackBerry (BBRY -1.20%) rose nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -8 cents, a much smaller loss than consensus of -55 cents.
Jefferies keeps its 'Buy' rating on Amgen (AMGN +1.82%) and raises its price target for the stock to $145 from $138.
El Paso Pipeline (EPB +0.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
PG&E (PCG -1.45%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Stadium Capital reported a 9.1% stake in Insperity (NSP +0.27%) .
Alcoa (AA +6.16%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Macquarie.
Netflix (NFLX -2.18%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after the WSJ reported that Amazon will offer a free streaming media service in the coming months.
Gabelli reported a 5.28% stake in Chemtura (CHMT -3.04%) .
Restoration Hardware (RH +0.55%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 83 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $471.7 milion was below consensus of $493.09 million.
Red Hat (RHT +0.27%) reported Q4 EPS of 39 cents, higher than consensus of 37 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.26%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.27%). The S&P 500 on Thursday slipped to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. Negatives for stocks included (1) the smaller-than-expected upward revision to U.S. Q4 GDP to +2.6% from +2.4%, below expectations of +2.7%, and (2) the unexpected -0.8% m/m decline in U.S. Feb pending homes sales, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase and the eighth straight monthly decline. A supportive factor was the -10,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to a 3-3/4 month low. Closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.55%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.11%) this morning are down -6.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed slightly higher. T-notes were undercut as weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-3/4 month low, but prices bounced back on increased safe-haven demand after stocks faltered. Closes: TYM4 +2.00, FVM4 -0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.068 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%) at a 1-month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.19%). The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly higher. EUR/USD fell to a 3-week low on concern the recent rally earlier this month in EUR/USD to a 2-1/3 year high will prod the ECB at next week’s policy meeting into additional stimulus measures to weaken the euro. Closes: Dollar index +0.079 (+0.10%), EUR/USD -0.00407 (-0.30%), USD/JPY +0.145 (+0.14%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.39%) this morning is up +52 cents (+0.51%) at a 2-1/2 week high and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.01%) is up +0.0013 (+0.04%). May crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher with May crude at a 2-week high and May gasoline at a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 3-3/4 month low, and (2) positive carry-over from Wednesday’s EIA data that showed crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell for an eighth week to a 2-yr low. Closes: CLK4 +1.02 (+1.02%). RBK4 +0.0331 (+1.14%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/28/2014

US	0830 ET	Feb personal spending expected +0.3%, Jan +0.4%. Feb personal income expected +0.3%, Jan +0.3%. Feb PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Feb PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
	0955 ET	Final-Mar University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 80.5, previous -1.7 to 79.9.
	1245 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Kansas City, MO.
	1500 ET	USDA Q1 Hogs & Pigs inventory.
	2130 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on monetary policy at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
GER	0300 ET	German Feb import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -2.4% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and -2.3% y/y
	0900 ET	German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.5% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
UK	0530 ET	Revised UK Q4 GDP, previous +0.7% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
	0530 ET	Revised UK Q4 total business investment, previous +2.4% q/q and +8.5% y/y.
	0530 ET	UK Q4 current account balance, Q3 -20.7 billion pounds.
EUR	0600 ET	Eurozone Mar economic confidence expected +0.2 to 101.4, Feb 101.2. Mar business climate indicator expected +0.01 to +0.38, Feb +0.37.
	0600 ET	Revised Eurozone Mar consumer confidence, previous +3.4 to -9.3.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/28/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Darden Restaurants Inc	DRI US	8:30	Analyst & Investor Conference	Y 2014
Compuware Corp	CPWR US		Annual General Meeting

Today's 5 Best Mid Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index to find the stocks with the best technical indicators and charts.  I first sorted for new high frequency in the last month then eliminated any stocks that did not have positive gains for the last week and month.  I then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.

Today's list includes RPM International (RPM), Intersil (ISIL), Domino's Pizza (DPZ),  Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), and Compuware (CPWR):

RPM International (RPM)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 19 new highs and up 12.63% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 72.07%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 41.69
• Recently traded at 42.79 with a 50 day moving average of 40.86

Intersil (ISIL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 18 new highs and up 18.83% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 69.96%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.18
• Recently traded at 12.863 with a 50 day moving average of 11.52

Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 16.65% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 79.09%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 77.16
• Recently traded at 79.76 with  50 day moving average of 71.35

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 32.69% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 88.80%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 67.55
• Recently traded at 71.24 with a 50 day moving average of 56.88

Compuware (CPWR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 40% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 11.80% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 69.46%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.69
• Recently traded at 10.99 with a 50 day moving average of 10.64

Barchart Morning Call 4/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, April 4th, 2013View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.39%) this morning are up +0.42% on a +1.13% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and on the BOJ's expansion of it QE program, which was more aggressive than expected. The Bank of England and the ECB both left their respective monetary policies unchanged as expected. The Nikkei index rallied sharply today by +2.20% on the BOJ's expanded QE program. The markets were closed today for a public holiday in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Other Asian stock markets closed lower with Australia down -0.89%, Singapore down -0.42%, South Korea down -1.27%, and India down -1.55%. Commodity prices today are down -0.19%. May crude oil is up +0.06%, May gasoline is down -0.65%, June gold is down -0.61%, May copper is down -0.21%, and agriculture prices are trading lower across the board. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.60%) is sharply higher by +0.68% thanks mainly to a plunge in the yen on the BOJ meeting outcome, which pushed USD/JPY (^USDJPY) up +2.58%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32%. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 +0.08%) are down 1 tick.
The ECB at its meeting today left its refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected. The markets will be listening carefully to ECB President Draghi at his press conference later this morning to see if he takes a more dovish tone in response to the ongoing Eurozone recession.
The Bank of England at its policy meeting today left its monetary policy unchanged with the base rate at 0.50% and its asset-purchase target unchanged at 375 billion pounds. The outcome was fully in line with market expectations. BOE Governor Mervyn King has been pushing for a 25 billion pound increase in the asset-purchase target but has been overruled by a majority vote on the BOE Monetary Policy Committee due to concerns about the UK inflation rate of +2.8% y/y overall and +2.3% core.
The BOJ at the conclusion of its 2-day meeting doubled its monthly bond-buying program to 7 trillion yen ($73 billion) per month. The BOJ dropped the limit on the maturity on the bonds that it buys, thus extending the maturity beyond 3 years. The BOJ also said it will double its monetary base and plans to reach its 2% inflation target within two years. The outcome of the BOJ meeting was more aggressive than expected and boosted the Japanese stock market and undercut the yen.
North Korea today prevented South Korean workers from entering the Gaeseong joint industrial zone for a second day. However, North Korea allowed South Korean workers who were already in the zone to leave. North Korea reiterated its threat against the U.S. by noting that its government authorized a potential "smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike." The South Korean Kospi stock index today fell 1.2% and the won fell by 0.6% to a 7-month low.
The Spanish 10-year bond yield today fell by 7 bp to 4.84% and the Italian 10-year bond yield fell by 5 bp to 4.51%.
The German final-March services PMI was revised lower by 0.7 points to 50.9 from the preliminary report of 51.6, which was weaker than market expectations for no revision. The Eurozone final-March services PMI was revised lower by -0.1 point to 46.4 from 46.5 and was weaker than market expectations for no revision.
The Eurozone Feb PPI rose by +0.2% m/m, which was in line with market expectations. On a year-on-year basis, the Feb PPI eased to +1.3% from a revised +1.7% in Jan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -4,000 to 353,000, reversing part of last week’s increase of +16,000 to 357,000. Meanwhile, today’s weekly continuing claims report is expected to be unchanged from last week’s level of 3.050 million, moving sideways after last week’s decline of -27,000 to 3.050 million. The U.S. stock market is focused on the outcome of the central bank meetings in Japan, Europe, and UK. The only earnings report today from the Russell 1000 is RPM International (consensus 6 cents). Conferences through the rest of this week include J.P. Morgan Private Builder/Private Equity Conference on Thursday, China Business Conference 2013 in NY on Friday, and Women in the World Summit 2013 on Friday.

June E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.42%) on the 1.13% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and on . The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower as a smaller-than-expected increase in the Mar ADP employment change (+158,000 vs. expectations of +200,000) fueled concern that Friday’s U.S. Mar payrolls may be weaker than expected and that the economy may be slowing. Another negative was the -1.6 point drop in the Mar ISM non-manufacturing index to a 7-month low of 54.4, weaker than expectations of -0.5 to 55.5. Closes: S&P 500 -1.05%, Dow Jones -0.76%, Nasdaq 100 -0.91%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Microsoft (MSFT -0.83%) was downtgraded to Neutral from Buy due to disappointing Windows 8 adoption, a lack of unit growth in consumer devices, and a decline in expected PC sales.
• RPM (RPM -1.85%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, which was 1 cent above the consensus of 6 cents.
• Domino's Pizza (DPZ -0.88%) was downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman sachs due to valuation concerns.
• Provident New York Bancorp (PBNY +0.34%) and Sterling Bancorp (STL) plan to merge.
• Federal Realty (FRT +0.42%) acquired a shopping center in Darien, Ct. for $47.3 million.
• Sean P. Downes reported an 8.6% stake in Universal Insurance (UVE +0.40%) .
• Intellipharmaceutics (IPCI -1.13%) reported a loss for Q1 EPS of -7 cents, better than consensus of a -12 cent loss.
• The board of directors of McCormick (MKC -1.40%) authorized a new share repurchase program in which the company is authorized to purchase up to $400 million of its outstanding shares.
• Healthcare Services (HCSG +0.55%) expects the retroactive reinstatement of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, WOTC, to favorably impact Q1 of 2013 by approximately 2 cents to 3 cents per diluted common share.
• CVS Caremark (CVS -2.01%) has agreed to pay $11 million to settle a civil lawsuit with the Justice Department that alleged the company failed to keep proper records of drug sales in Oklahoma, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
• SAIC (SAI -0.88%) announced it was awarded a prime contract by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation to provide information technology and operations support services.
• Compuware (CPWR -1.88%) lowered its guidance on Q4 non-GAAP EPS to 5 cents-6 cents, well below consensus of 15 cents, and cut its guidance on fiscal year 2013 to 26 cents-28 cents, well below consensus of 36 cents. CEO Bob Paul said "During the quarter, a large number of deals we had anticipated closing in Q4 were pushed into the new fiscal year, significantly impacting our results."

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes this morning are down 1 tick. June 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed higher as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-month low of 1.796% on increased safe-haven demand after stocks fell when weaker-than-expected data on Mar ADP employment and the Mar ISM non-manufacturing index spurred concern that U.S. economic growth may be slowing. Closes: TYM3 +13.5, FVM3 +6.75.
The dollar index this morning is sharply higher by +0.57 points (+0.68%) as the yen fell sharply on the BOJ's aggressive QE program. USD/JPY is up sharply by +2.40 yen (+2.58%. EUR/USD is down -0.0041 (-0.32%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Mar ADP employment and Mar ISM non-manufacturing raised concern the Fed will maintain its dollar negative stimulus measures. EUR/USD strengthened after the IMF reached an agreement with Cyprus for a 1 billion euro contribution to its bailout and after Italian and Spanish government bond yields fell. Closes: Dollar index -0.206 (-0.25%), EUR/USD +0.0030 (+0.25%), USD/JPY -0.39 (-0.42%).
May WTI crude oil is slightly higher by +0.06 (+0.06%) and May gasoline is down -0.0190 (-0.65%). Crude oil and gasoline tumbled on Wednesday after weekly EIA crude inventories rose to their highest since 1990. May crude posted a 1-week low and May gasoline fell to a 2-1/4 month low after weekly EIA crude inventories rose +2.707 million bbl, more than the expectations of 2.050 million, to 388.6 million bbl, the highest in more than 22 years. Other negatives included the smaller-than-expected increase in the Mar ADP employment and the larger-than-expected drop in the Mar ISM non-manufacturing index, which raised demand concerns. Closes: CLK3 -2.77 (-2.85%), RBK3 -0.1304 (-4.29%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/04/2013

US	0730 ET	March Challenger job cuts, Feb 7.0% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 353,000, previous +16,000 to 357,000. Weekly continuing claims expected unch at 3.050 mln, previous -27,000 to 3.050 mln.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0845 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speak on current economic conditions and monetary policy discussion at the University of Dayton’s Redefining Investment Strategy Education conference.
	1030 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on the economy in taped video.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces details of April 9-11 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auctions.
	1230 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy at Redlands Community College.
	1700 ET	Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks to Society of American Business Editors and Writers conference at George Washington University.
JPN	n/a	BOJ 2-day meeting concludes.
GER	0355 ET	German final-March services PMI expected unrevised from prelim March 51.6.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone final-March services PMI expected unrevised from prelim March 46.5. Final-March composite PMI expected unrevised from prelim 46.5.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Feb PMI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jan +0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
	0745 ET	ECB announces policy meeting outcome. Refinancing rate expected unchanged at 0.75%.
UK	0430 ET	UK March services PMI expected -0.3 to 51.5, Feb 51.8.
	0700 ET	BOE announces outcome of policy meeting. Base rate expected unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase target expected unchanged at 375 bln pounds.
CH	n/a	Chinese markets closed for a public holiday.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/04/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
RPM International Inc	RPM US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.061
Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc	ARIA US	8:00	Business Update Call
RPM International Inc	RPM US	10:00	Q3 2013 Earnings Call	Q3 2013
Facebook Inc	FB US	13:00	Media Event-Product Announcement
Hanesbrands Inc	HBI US	18:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2013
PNC Financial Services Group Inc	PNC US		Shareholders Meeting	Y 2013
FirstEnergy Corp	FE US		Roadshow - Boston	Y 2013

Barchart Morning Call 3/5

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Tue Mar 05, 7:09AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.23%) this morning are mildly higher by +0.23% on higher global stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 is sharply higher by +1.38% after Eurozone officials indicated some flexibility on easing austerity measures for troubled Eurozone nations, allowing Portugal's 10-year bond yield today to fall sharply by 24 bp. In addition, the German and Eurozone final-Feb services PMIs were revised higher and the UK services PMI was stronger than expected. Asian stocks today closed higher across the board. China's CSI 300 index today closed sharply higher by +3.03% on a partial rebound from Monday's -4.6% loss on property curbs. Japanese stocks today closed +0.27% and Hong Kong closed +0.10%. Commodity prices are showing strong gains on the whole with an average increase of +0.56%. April crude oil (CLJ13 +0.30%) is up +0.20%, April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.55%) is up +0.28%, April gold (GCJ13 +0.61%) is up +0.65%, March copper (HGK13 +0.53%) is up +0.66%, and agriculture prices are all trading higher except for hogs. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is mildly lower by -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.10% on easier Eurozone debt crisis conditions, while USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26%. March 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.06%) are down 5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand.
China's HSBC Feb services PMI fell by -1.9 points to 52.1 from 54.0 in Jan. The -1.9 point decline was similar to Saturday's -1.7 point decline to 54.5 in the Feb services PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Germany's final-Feb services PMI rose +0.6 points to 54.7 from the preliminary report of 54.1. The final-Feb Eurozone services PMI rose by +0.6 points to 47.9 from the preliminary report of 47.9.
The UK Feb services PMI rose by +0.3 points to 51.8 from 51.5 in Jan and was stronger than market expectations for a -0.5 point decline to 51.0. The report put the UK economy in a slightly better light and may make it more difficult for the Bank of England to consider reviving its QE program at its meeting that concludes on Thursday.
Eurozone Jan retail sales rose +1.2% m/m, which was better than market expectations and more than recovered the -0.8% loss seen in January. On a year-on-year basis, Eurozone Jan retail sales improved to -1.3% y/y from a revised -3.0% y/y in Dec.
Eurozone finance ministers and the European Commission are showing some flexibility on easing up on austerity requirements in response to revolts among voters. Italy's voters, for example, lodged a 55% combined vote for the anti-austerity Grillo and Berlusconi parties. Eurozone officials are considering giving Ireland and Portugal more time to repay their loans. Portugal's 10-year bond yield today fell sharply by -24 bp to 6.07% from 6.31% on Monday. The Spanish 10-year bond yield today is down -4 bp at 5.04%. Italy's 10-year bond yield is down -11 bp at 4.76%.
The Australian central bank today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, which was in line with market expectations. The unchanged rate was supportive for the Australian dollar as the market trimmed expectations for further rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by a total of 125 bp in 2012 to address slower economic growth. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said today that last year's rate cut is showing some signs of having the "expected effects." He added that the current inflation outlook affords "scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's U.S. economic calendar is light. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 point decline to 55.0, adding to the -0.5 decline to 55.2 seen in January. Congress today will be haggling over the continuing resolution that the House expects to pass on Thursday. The markets will also be on the lookout for sequester effects. Today's U.S. stock calendar is relatively light. There are reports today from Fastenal, The Gap, VeriFone, and Walgreen, among others.
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.23%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.23%) on a +1.38% rally in European stocks and a 3.03% rally in Chinese stocks. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed moderately higher on dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair Yellen and from the lack of much fallout thus far from the automatic spending cuts. The market overcame early bearish news including a decline in China’s non-manufacturing PMI and the -4.6% plunge in Chinese stocks on the new curbs on China’s property market. Closes: S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.43%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Jefferies raised its target for Google (GOOG +1.90%) to $1,000 from $875
• Trinity Biotech (TRIB -0.76%) reported in-line Q4 EPS of 21 cents.
• Cantor upgrade Yahoo (YHOO +3.46%) to Buy from Hold
• J.C. Penney (JCP -5.37%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after a large 10 million share block trade was offered and was priced between $16.40-$16.60.
• American Apparel (APP +0.78%) rallied sharply by 15% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
• Ascena Retail (ASNA +0.43%) rallied 14% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
• Santarus (SNTS +2.53%) rallied 10% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
• Compuware (CPWR -0.17%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that private equity firms are showing interest in the company.
• Trulia (TRLA +3.02%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after the company filed to sell $100 million of common stock.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.06%) are down -5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand. June 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed slightly lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and the lack of any big impact as yet on the first business day after last Friday’s sequester. Closes: TYM3 -0.5, FVM3 -2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.12 points (-0.15%) on reduced safe-haven demand while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0013 (+0.10%) on improved Eurozone debt crisis conditions. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24 yen (-0.26%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower on the rally in stocks and reduced safe-haven demand. Closes: Dollar index -0.12 (-0.14%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.11 (-0.12%).
April WTI crude oil (CLJ13 +0.30%) is up +0.18 (+0.20%) and April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.55%) is up +0.0086 (+0.28%). Crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) continued technical selling with the new 2-month low in crude oil, (2) expectations for an +800,000 barrel increase in crude oil inventories in Wednesday’s DOE report, (3) some concerns about the U.S. economy with the sequester starting last Friday, and (4) the decline in China’s non-manufacturing PMI report. Closes: CLJ3 -0.56 (-0.62%), RBJ3 -0.0303 (-0.97%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/05/2013

US	1000 ET	Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 55.0, Jan -0.5 to 55.2.
	1400 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the 2013 NABE conference on a panel titled ?Help or Harm: Central Bank Monetary Policies at the Outer Limits.?
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Feb PMI services expected no change at 54.1
UK	0430 ET	UK Feb services PMI, Jan 51.5.
	1901 ET	UK Feb BRC shop price index, Jan +0.6% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Feb PMI composite expected no change at 47.3.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jan retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.9% m/m and -3.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/05/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Fastenal Co	FAST	7:00	February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
SandRidge Energy Inc	SD	8:00	Investor and Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
Joy Global Inc	JOY	8:30	Annual General Meeting
Hologic Inc	HOLX	8:30	Annual General Meeting
Cerner Corp	CERN	9:30	Investment Community Meeting	Y 2013
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD	10:00	Roadshow - Washington	Y 2013
Tractor Supply Co	TSCO	10:15	Investment Community Meeting	Y 2013
International Game Technology	IGT	10:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
QUALCOMM Inc	QCOM	12:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT	14:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Xilinx Inc	XLNX	14:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
Gap Inc/The	GPS	16:00	February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY	16:30	Q1 2013 Earnings Call	Q1 2013
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY	Aft-mkt	Q1 2013 Earnings Release	Q1 2013	0.494
Walgreen Co	WAG		February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013