OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.23%) this morning are mildly higher by +0.23% on higher global stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 is sharply higher by +1.38% after Eurozone officials indicated some flexibility on easing austerity measures for troubled Eurozone nations, allowing Portugal's 10-year bond yield today to fall sharply by 24 bp. In addition, the German and Eurozone final-Feb services PMIs were revised higher and the UK services PMI was stronger than expected. Asian stocks today closed higher across the board. China's CSI 300 index today closed sharply higher by +3.03% on a partial rebound from Monday's -4.6% loss on property curbs. Japanese stocks today closed +0.27% and Hong Kong closed +0.10%. Commodity prices are showing strong gains on the whole with an average increase of +0.56%. April crude oil (CLJ13 +0.30%) is up +0.20%, April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.55%) is up +0.28%, April gold (GCJ13 +0.61%) is up +0.65%, March copper (HGK13 +0.53%) is up +0.66%, and agriculture prices are all trading higher except for hogs. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is mildly lower by -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.10% on easier Eurozone debt crisis conditions, while USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26%. March 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.06%) are down 5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand.China's HSBC Feb services PMI fell by -1.9 points to 52.1 from 54.0 in Jan. The -1.9 point decline was similar to Saturday's -1.7 point decline to 54.5 in the Feb services PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Germany's final-Feb services PMI rose +0.6 points to 54.7 from the preliminary report of 54.1. The final-Feb Eurozone services PMI rose by +0.6 points to 47.9 from the preliminary report of 47.9.
The UK Feb services PMI rose by +0.3 points to 51.8 from 51.5 in Jan and was stronger than market expectations for a -0.5 point decline to 51.0. The report put the UK economy in a slightly better light and may make it more difficult for the Bank of England to consider reviving its QE program at its meeting that concludes on Thursday.
Eurozone Jan retail sales rose +1.2% m/m, which was better than market expectations and more than recovered the -0.8% loss seen in January. On a year-on-year basis, Eurozone Jan retail sales improved to -1.3% y/y from a revised -3.0% y/y in Dec.
Eurozone finance ministers and the European Commission are showing some flexibility on easing up on austerity requirements in response to revolts among voters. Italy's voters, for example, lodged a 55% combined vote for the anti-austerity Grillo and Berlusconi parties. Eurozone officials are considering giving Ireland and Portugal more time to repay their loans. Portugal's 10-year bond yield today fell sharply by -24 bp to 6.07% from 6.31% on Monday. The Spanish 10-year bond yield today is down -4 bp at 5.04%. Italy's 10-year bond yield is down -11 bp at 4.76%.
The Australian central bank today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, which was in line with market expectations. The unchanged rate was supportive for the Australian dollar as the market trimmed expectations for further rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by a total of 125 bp in 2012 to address slower economic growth. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said today that last year's rate cut is showing some signs of having the "expected effects." He added that the current inflation outlook affords "scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary."
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's U.S. economic calendar is light. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 point decline to 55.0, adding to the -0.5 decline to 55.2 seen in January. Congress today will be haggling over the continuing resolution that the House expects to pass on Thursday. The markets will also be on the lookout for sequester effects. Today's U.S. stock calendar is relatively light. There are reports today from Fastenal, The Gap, VeriFone, and Walgreen, among others.March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.23%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.23%) on a +1.38% rally in European stocks and a 3.03% rally in Chinese stocks. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed moderately higher on dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair Yellen and from the lack of much fallout thus far from the automatic spending cuts. The market overcame early bearish news including a decline in China’s non-manufacturing PMI and the -4.6% plunge in Chinese stocks on the new curbs on China’s property market. Closes: S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.43%.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
- Jefferies raised its target for Google (GOOG +1.90%) to $1,000 from $875
- Trinity Biotech (TRIB -0.76%) reported in-line Q4 EPS of 21 cents.
- Cantor upgrade Yahoo (YHOO +3.46%) to Buy from Hold
- J.C. Penney (JCP -5.37%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after a large 10 million share block trade was offered and was priced between $16.40-$16.60.
- American Apparel (APP +0.78%) rallied sharply by 15% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
- Ascena Retail (ASNA +0.43%) rallied 14% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
- Santarus (SNTS +2.53%) rallied 10% in after-hours trading on positive earnings.
- Compuware (CPWR -0.17%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that private equity firms are showing interest in the company.
- Trulia (TRLA +3.02%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after the company filed to sell $100 million of common stock.
MARKET COMMENTS
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.06%) are down -5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand. June 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed slightly lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and the lack of any big impact as yet on the first business day after last Friday’s sequester. Closes: TYM3 -0.5, FVM3 -2.25.The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.12 points (-0.15%) on reduced safe-haven demand while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0013 (+0.10%) on improved Eurozone debt crisis conditions. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24 yen (-0.26%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower on the rally in stocks and reduced safe-haven demand. Closes: Dollar index -0.12 (-0.14%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.11 (-0.12%).
April WTI crude oil (CLJ13 +0.30%) is up +0.18 (+0.20%) and April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.55%) is up +0.0086 (+0.28%). Crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) continued technical selling with the new 2-month low in crude oil, (2) expectations for an +800,000 barrel increase in crude oil inventories in Wednesday’s DOE report, (3) some concerns about the U.S. economy with the sequester starting last Friday, and (4) the decline in China’s non-manufacturing PMI report. Closes: CLJ3 -0.56 (-0.62%), RBJ3 -0.0303 (-0.97%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/05/2013
| US | 1000 ET | Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 55.0, Jan -0.5 to 55.2. |
| 1400 ET | Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the 2013 NABE conference on a panel titled ?Help or Harm: Central Bank Monetary Policies at the Outer Limits.? | |
| 1630 ET | API weekly U.S. oil statistics. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Feb PMI services expected no change at 54.1 |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Feb services PMI, Jan 51.5. |
| 1901 ET | UK Feb BRC shop price index, Jan +0.6% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Feb PMI composite expected no change at 47.3. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Jan retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.9% m/m and -3.6% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/05/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastenal Co | FAST | 7:00 | February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| SandRidge Energy Inc | SD | 8:00 | Investor and Analyst Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Joy Global Inc | JOY | 8:30 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Hologic Inc | HOLX | 8:30 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Cerner Corp | CERN | 9:30 | Investment Community Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Brocade Communications Systems Inc | BRCD | 10:00 | Roadshow - Washington | Y 2013 | |
| Tractor Supply Co | TSCO | 10:15 | Investment Community Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| International Game Technology | IGT | 10:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| QUALCOMM Inc | QCOM | 12:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Applied Materials Inc | AMAT | 14:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Xilinx Inc | XLNX | 14:00 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Gap Inc/The | GPS | 16:00 | February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY | 16:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.494 |
| Walgreen Co | WAG | February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 |
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