Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - Tue Oct 31, 6:40AM CDT
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.14%) this morning are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +0.24% at a 2-year high. Gains in European stocks are leading U.S. stocks higher after Eurozone Q3 GDP rose at a stronger-than-expected +2.5% y/y pace, the most in 5-1/2 years. Also, the Eurozone Sep unemployment rate fell to a 7-1/2 year low of 8.9% and after Eurozone Oct inflation unexpectedly slowed as the Oct core CPI fell below 1.0% for the first time in 5-months. Gains in equities were limited on Chinese growth concerns after the China Oct manufacturing PMI fell more than expected. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan unch, Hong Kong -0.32%, China +0.09%, Taiwan +0.34%, Australia -0.17%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea +0.97%, India -0.16%. Japanese stocks settled little changed after the BOJ maintained its benchmark rate and asset purchase target but raised its Japan 2017 GDP forecast and lowered its core inflation estimate.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.19%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.19%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%.
The Eurozone Oct CPI estimate rose +1.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.5% y/y. The Oct core CPI rose +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5-months.
The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 8.9% from a downward revised 9.0% in Aug, better than expectations of -0.1 to 9.0% and a 7-1/2 year low.
Eurozone Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q and +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% q/q and +2.4% y/y with the +2.5% y/y gain the fastest pace of growth in 5-1/2 years.
The China Oct manufacturing PMI fell -0.8 to 51.6, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 52.0.
The BOJ with an 8-1 vote kept its benchmark rate at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield target at 0.0% with no change to its bond buying pace in Nov from Oct. The BOJ also raised their Japan 20178 GDP forecast to 1.9% from a previous forecast of 1.8% and lowered its Japan 2017 core inflation estimate to 0.8% from an earlier estimate of 1.1%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q3 employment index (expected +0.7%, Q2 +0.5%), (2) Aug S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home prices (expected +0.40% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jul +0.35% m/m and +5.81% y/y), (3) Oct Chicago PMI (expected -5.2 to 60.0, Sep +6.3 to 65.2), (4) Oct Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence (expected +1.2 to 121.0, Sep -0.6 to 119.8), (5) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Mastercard (consensus $1.23), Cummins (2.46), Aetna (2.08), Kellogg (0.94), Pfizer (0.65), ADM (0.56), Electronic Arts (0.55), Under Armour (0.19), Mosaic (0.18).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week: Gabelli & Company Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on Mon-Tue, VancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on Thu-Fri, American College of Rheumatology Meeting on Fri, North American Cystic Fibrosis Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Burlington Stores (BURL -2.06%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 comparable sales up +3.1%, higher than a prior view of up 2%-3%.
Cray (CRAY +4.71%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $79.7 million, well above consensus of $59.5 million.
Exact Sciences (EXAS -2.07%) jumped nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $72.6 million, higher than consensus of $65.1 million, and then raised guidance on full-year revenue to $254 million-$257 million from a prior view of $230 million-$240 million, above consensus of $244.6 million.
Tyson Foods (TSN +0.61%) was initiated with a recommendation of 'Overweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a 12-month target price of $82.
Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN -1.49%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $595 million, well above consensus of $533.6 million.
Salesforce.com (CRM unch) was initiated with a 'Buy' recommendation at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month target price of $125.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -1.49%) slid over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 labor inflation rising 7%-8%, higher than previous guidance of mid-single digit inflation.
Olin (OLN +0.93%) fell almost 3% in after-hours trading it reported Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $265.5 million, less than consensus of $266.4 million, and then said it sees Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $280 million, weaker than consensus of
Luminex (LMNX +0.15%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, higher than consensus of 19 cents.
Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.46%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating revenue of $219.6 million, below consensus of $237 million.
Nautilus (NLS +1.56%) dropped 8% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year operating income of $44 million-$46 million, a 13% to 18% decline y/y, lower than a previous estimate of 5% to 7% growth.
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +0.71%) sank 12% in after-hours trading after Sanofi Enzyme opted against exercising its exclusive option for ex-U.S. development and commercial rights to Voyager's VY-AADEC drug for the treatment of advanced Parkinson's disease.
MDC Partners (MDCA +3.24%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted Ebitda of $53.8 million, better than consensus of $52 million.
Unisys (UNS) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $666.3 million, better than consensus of $635.3 million.
Rent-A-Center (RCII +5.78%) tumbled 9% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted loss per share of -15cents, wider than consensus of -3 cents a share.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.14%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.16%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.32%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq +0.23%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on negative carry-over from a slide in China's Shanghai Composite to a 1-month low after China's 10-year bond yield jumped to a near 3-year high amid mounting deleveraging concerns. Stocks were also undercut by a Bloomberg report that House Republicans are considering a 5-year phased reduction of the corporate tax, which would mean that only a fifth of the benefits would be seen in 2018.
Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ7 +13.50, FVZ7 +7.25. The Dec 10-year T-note on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in 10-year German bunds to a 1-week high after German Oct CPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, which was dovish for ECB policy. T-note prices were also supported by optimism that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair, which would signal a continuation of Fed Chair Yellen's monetary policy direction.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.083 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.19%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.19%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.356 (-0.38%), EUR/USD +0.0043 (+0.37%), USD/JPY -0.49 (-0.43%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Oct economic confidence rose +0.9 to a 16-1/2 year high of 114.0, and on the decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.
Dec crude oil (CLZ17 -0.26%) this morning is down -10 cents (-0.18%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ17 -0.19%) is -0.0033 (-0.19%). Monday's closes: Dec WTI crude +0.25 (+0.46%), Dec gasoline -0.0042 (-0.24%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed with Dec crude at an 8-month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar, and by optimism that OPEC and Russia will agree to an extension of crude production cuts. Crude oil prices were undercut by the slide in the crack spread to a 4-session low, which may undercut crude demand from refineries to refine crude into gasoline.
Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.29%) -3.7 (-0.29%), Dec silver (SIZ17 -0.07%) -0.017 (-0.10%) and Dec copper +0.008 (+0.24%). Monday's closes: Dec gold +5.9 (+0.46%), Dec silver +0.095 (+0.57%), Dec copper (HGZ17-0.02%) +0.0085 (+0.27%). Metals on Monday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on weakness in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/31/2017
| Tuesday, Oct 31 | ||
| US | 0830 ET | Q3 employment index expected +0.7%, Q2 +0.5%. |
| 0900 ET | Aug S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home prices expected +0.40% m/m and +5.95% y/y, Jul +0.35% m/m and +5.81% y/y. | |
| 0945 ET | Oct Chicago PMI expected -5.2 to 60.0, Sep +6.3 to 65.2. | |
| 1000 ET | Oct consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +1.2 to 121.0, Sep -0.6 to 119.8. | |
| 1030 ET | FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting. | |
| Wednesday, Nov 1 | ||
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.6% with purchase sub-index -6.1% and refi sub-index -3.0%. |
| 0815 ET | Oct ADP employment change expected +200,000, Sep +135,000. | |
| 0830 ET | Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $20 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $12 billion) to be auctioned Nov 7-9 in the Nov quarterly refunding. | |
| 0945 ET | Revised Oct Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI expected unch at 54.5, prelim-Oct +1.4 to 54.5. | |
| 1000 ET | Oct ISM manufacturing index expected -1.4 to 59.4, Sep +2.0 to 60.8. Oct ISM new orders, Sep +4.3 to 64.6. Oct ISM employment, Sep +0.4 to 60.3. Oct ISM prices paid expected -4.2 to 67.3, Sep +9.5 to 71.5. | |
| 1000 ET | Sep construction spending expected -0.2%, Aug +0.5% m/m. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1400 ET | FOMC announces interest rate decision; 1.00%-1.25% fed funds rate target expected unchanged. | |
| n/a | Oct total vehicle sales expected 17.50 million, Sep 18.47 million. Oct domestic vehicle sales expected 13.70 million, Sep 14.33 million. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/31/2017
| Name | Ticker | Time | Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONEOK Inc | OKE US | 04:20 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.481 |
| Aetna Inc | AET US | 06:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 2.078 |
| GGP Inc | GGP US | 06:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.372 |
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc | FIS US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.068 |
| Eaton Corp PLC | ETN US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.251 |
| Harris Corp | HRS US | 06:30 | Q1 2018 Earnings Release | Q1 18 | 1.346 |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE US | 06:45 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.646 |
| Under Armour Inc | UAA US | 06:55 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.186 |
| Xylem Inc/NY | XYL US | 06:55 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.631 |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 07:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.64 |
| Incyte Corp | INCY US | 07:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.058 |
| IDEXX Laboratories Inc | IDXX US | 07:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.744 |
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | 07:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.555 |
| Mosaic Co/The | MOS US | 07:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.18 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 07:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.836 |
| Cummins Inc | CMI US | 07:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 2.456 |
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | 08:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.232 |
| Kellogg Co | K US | 08:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.941 |
| Ecolab Inc | ECL US | 08:15 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.355 |
| Under Armour Inc | UAA US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| IDEXX Laboratories Inc | IDXX US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc | FIS US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| HCA Healthcare Inc | HCA US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.21 |
| Aetna Inc | AET US | 08:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Harris Corp | HRS US | 08:30 | Q1 2018 Earnings Call | Q1 18 | |
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Noble Energy Inc | NBL US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Mastercard Inc | MA US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Xylem Inc/NY | XYL US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| GGP Inc | GGP US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Mosaic Co/The | MOS US | 09:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Kellogg Co | K US | 09:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Incyte Corp | INCY US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Vornado Realty Trust | VNO US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Pfizer Inc | PFE US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Cummins Inc | CMI US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| HCA Healthcare Inc | HCA US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Eaton Corp PLC | ETN US | 10:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Everest Re Group Ltd | RE US | 10:30 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 11:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| AvalonBay Communities Inc | AVB US | 11:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd | RCL US | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 3.41 | |
| Ecolab Inc | ECL US | 13:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| UDR Inc | UDR US | 13:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Macerich Co/The | MAC US | 14:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc | ARE US | 15:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 | |
| Fiserv Inc | FISV US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 1.303 |
| Devon Energy Corp | DVN US | 16:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.387 |
| Electronic Arts Inc | EA US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2018 Earnings Release | Q2 18 | 0.546 |
| Verisk Analytics Inc | VRSK US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.784 |
| Envision Healthcare Corp | EVHC US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.878 |
| Newfield Exploration Co | NFX US | 16:01 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.41 |
| Anadarko Petroleum Corp | APC US | 16:05 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | (0.551) |
| Concho Resources Inc | CXO US | 16:05 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.271 |
| CH Robinson Worldwide Inc | CHRW US | 16:15 | Q3 2017 Earnings Release | Q3 17 | 0.816 |
| Electronic Arts Inc | EA US | 17:00 | Q2 2018 Earnings Call | Q2 18 | |
| Fiserv Inc | FISV US | 17:00 | Q3 2017 Earnings Call | Q3 17 |
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