Morning Call 8/15

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Tue Aug 15, 6:34AM CDT

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.40% as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea wane, which is fueling gains in global equity markets. The VIX volatility index fell for a third day and Dec COMEX gold prices (GCZ17 -0.81%) declined -0.81% on reduced safe-haven demand after a North Korean media report signaled that North Korean President Kim Jong Un had decided not to launch missiles toward Guam. Gains in European stocks were contained after German Q2 GDP expanded at a slower than expected pace, while weakness in energy stocks limited the upside in U.S. markets as Sep WTI crude oil (CLU17 -0.46%) slid -0.38% to a 3-week low. GBP/USD fell -0.69% to a 1-month low on weaker-than-expected UK Jul CPI, which may keep the BOE from tapering its QE program. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.11%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China +0.43%, Taiwan +0.84%, Australia +0.47%, Singapore -0.42%, South Korea and India closed for holiday. Chinese stocks also found support on stronger-than-expected China Jul aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, and Japanese exporters led gains in the Nikkei Stock Index as USD/JPY rose for a second day.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.36%) is up +0.34%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.71%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.22%) are down -9 ticks.

German Q2 GDP rose +0.6% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.7% q/q.

UK Jul CPI of -0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y was weaker than expectations of unch m/m and +2.7% y/y. Jul core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y.

China Jul new yuan loans rose 825.5 billion yuan, stronger than expectations of +800.0 billion yuan. Jul aggregate financing increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul import price index (expected +0.1% m/m, Jun -0.2% and +0.1% ex-petroleum), Jul export price index (expected +0.2% m/m, Jun -0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y), (2) Aug Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions (expected +0.2 to 10.0, Jul -10.0 to 9.8), (3) Jul retail sales (expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Jun -0.2% and -0.2% ex autos), (4) Aug NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 64, Jul -2 to 64), (5) Jun business inventories (expected +0.4%, May +0.3%).

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Advance Auto Parts (consensus $1.65), Coach $0.50, TJX Cos $0.84, Home Depot $2.21, Dick's Sporting Goods $1.00, Brighthouse Financial $2.43, Agilent Technologies $0.52, Urban Outfitters $0.37, Jack Henry & Associates $0.83.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Capitol Investment Co.

Equity conferences this week: D. A. Davidson & Co Technology Forum on Tue, Nomura Holdings Inc Instinet Media Telecom Conference on Tue, Citi Insurance & Asset Managers Forum on Wed, Barclays Kohler Conference on Wed, Wedbush Pacgrow Health Care Conference on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Home Depot (HD -0.40%) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $2.25, better than consensus of $2.21, and then raised guidance on full-year EPS to $7.29 from a prior view of $7.15.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO -2.32%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Market Perform' at FBR Capital Markets with a 12-month target price of $13.

NetApp (NTAP +1.30%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow Research with a 12-month target price of $50.

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN +2.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

Targa Resources (TRGP -1.31%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month target price of $50.

Synchrony Financial (SYF +1.51%) climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway reported that it increased its stake in SYF to $520 million in Q2.

FibroGen (FGEN +5.76%) lost over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer and sell up to $300 million of its common stock in an underwritten follow-on offering.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX +0.47%) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Cantor Fitzgerald with a price target of $17.

Omeros (OMER +4.95%) dropped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell 3 million shares of its common stock in a secondary public offering.

Pandora Media (P -0.12%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it named Sling TV CEO Roger Lynch as CEO and board member effective September 18.

Extreme Networks (EXTR +8.00%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, above consensus of 15 cents.

Photronics (PLAB +3.68%) plunged 16% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $111.6 million, below consensus of $115.2 million, and then said it sees Q4 revenue of $108 million-$116 million, weaker than expectations of $124.2 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESU17 +0.26%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.20%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.00, Dow Jones +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.31%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed sharply higher on reduced market volatility after the VIX volatility index plunged when North Korean geopolitical risks subsided. Another supportive factor was signs of strength in the Japanese economy that benefits global growth after Japan Q2 GDP rose +4.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +2.5% (q/q annualized) and the fastest pace of growth in over 2-years. A bearish factor was weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices fell -2.52%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.22%) this morning are down -9 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU7 -8.50, FVU7 -4.75. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as the stock market rallied sharply after North Korean tensions eased, and on signs of stronger global economic growth that may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates and the BOJ to taper QE after Japan Q2 GDP expanded at a +4.0% (q/q annualized) pace, the fastest pace of growth in over 2-years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.36%) this morning is up +0.318 (+0.34%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0025 (-0.21%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.78 (+0.71%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.342 (+0.37%), EUR/USD -0.0041 (-0.35%), USD/JPY +0.44 (+0.40%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher due to weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Jun industrial production fell -0.6% m/m, the biggest decline in 6 months, and on the increase in 10-year T-note yields, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Sep crude oil (CLU17 -0.46%) this morning is down -18 cents (-0.38%) at a 3-week low. Sep gasoline (RBU17 -0.15%) is unch. Monday's closes: Sep WTI crude -1.23 (-2.52%), Sep gasoline -0.0363 (-2.25%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday fell to 2-1/2 week lows and closed lower due to a stronger dollar, and slack Chinese crude demand after China Jul crude processing fell -4.4% to 10.76 million bpd, the smallest amount of crude processed in 10-months. Another bearish factor was negative carry-over from Friday's data from Baker Hughes that showed U.S. active oil rigs in the week ended Aug 11 rose +3 to 768, the most in 2-1/3 years.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/15/2017

		Tuesday, Aug 15
US	0830 ET	Jul import price index expected +0.1% m/m, Jun -0.2% and +0.1% ex-petroleum. Jul export price index expected +0.2% m/m, Jun -0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
	0830 ET	Aug Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +0.2 to 10.0, Jul -10.0 to 9.8.
	0830 ET	Jul retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Jun -0.2% and -0.2% ex autos.
	1000 ET	Aug NAHB housing market index expected unch at 64, Jul -2 to 64.
	1000 ET	Jun business inventories expected +0.4%, May +0.3%.
		Wednesday, Aug 16
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +3.0% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index +5.3%.
	0830 ET	Jul housing starts expected +0.4% to 1.220 million, Jun +8.3% to 1.215 million. Jul building permits expected -2.0%to 1.250 million, Jun +9.2% to 1.275 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1400 ET	Minutes of the Jul 25-26 FOMC meeting.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/15/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 17	1.65
Coach Inc	COH US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.495
TJX Cos Inc/The	TJX US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	0.84
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	6:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	2.214
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc	DKS US	7:30	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	0.998
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	8:00	Q2 2017 Earnings Call	Q2 17
Coach Inc	COH US	8:30	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	9:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc	DKS US	10:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18
TJX Cos Inc/The	TJX US	11:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18
Brighthouse Financial Inc	BHF US		Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 17	2.432
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Los Angeles
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Denver
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	16:00	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	0.522
Urban Outfitters Inc	URBN US	16:05	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	0.367
Jack Henry & Associates Inc	JKHY US	16:15	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.83
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	16:30	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Urban Outfitters Inc	URBN US	17:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18

BARCHART MORNING C ALL 8/20

BARCHART MORNING  CALL

Thursday, August 20th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) are down -0.75% at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.25% at a 1-1/4 month low on concern over emerging markets. The plunge in crude oil to a 6-1/3 year low has prompted Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest crude producer, to let its currency the tenge, float freely. The tenge immediately plunged 23% to a record low 257.21 per dollar and fueled a rally in gold prices (GCZ15 +0.84%) to a 1-month high. Kazakhstan was forced to devalue its currency in an attempt to stay competitive with China and Russia, its two top trading partners, after both countries devalued their currencies. The sell-off in emerging markets may continue as declining commodity prices curbs revenue and China's surprise devaluation of the yuan last week may force other countries to devalue their currencies in order to stay competitive. Other emerging market currencies fell sharply as well with Turkey's lira at a record low of 3 per dollar, the South African rand at a 14-year low of 13 per dollar, and Malaysia's ringgit plunging to a 17-year low against the dollar. Energy producing stocks are lower as crude oil continues its slide and is down -1.53% (CLV15 -0.87%) at a fresh 6-1/3 year low. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.94%, Hong Kong -1.77%, China -3.42%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia -1.70%, Singapore -1.03%, South Korea -1.14%, India -1.16%. Weakness in commodity and energy producers hammered Asian stocks with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling to a 1-1/4 month low. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled over 3% amid concern a slowing economy and weaker yuan will spur capital outflows.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.14% after Wednesday's FOMC minutes from Jul 28-29 said that policy makers needed to see more improvement in the U.S. labor market and in the inflation rate before they begin to raise interest rates. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.46%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.16%) are up +8 ticks at a 1-week high as the slump in global equity markets spurs safe-haven demand for government debt. The German 10-year bund yield fell to a 2-1/2 month low of 0.575%.
German Jul PPI was unch m/m and fell -1.3% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -4,000 to 270,000 and continuing claims expected -8,000 to 2.265 million), (2) Jul existing home sales (expected -1.1% to 5.43 million), (3) Jul leading indicators (expected +0.2%), and (4) the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected +1.1 to 6.8).
There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that reports earnings today: the Gap (consensus $0.64), Ross Stores (0.62), Hewlett-Packard (0.86), Intuit (-0.11), salesforce.com (0.18).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: IMS Health Holdings ($31.40), Surgical Care Affiliates (37.95), First Foundation (19.25), Benefitfocus Inc. (36.75).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Union Pacific (UNP -0.67%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.
Disney (DIS -0.46%) and Time Warner (TWX -1.51%) were both downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
Tech Data (TECD -0.55%) reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.43, well above consensus of 96 cents.
Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.65%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee CRT.
Analog Devices (ADI +0.83%) was downgraded to 'Reduce' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
Targa Resources (TRGP -3.21%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
The recent sell-off in AMC Networks (AMCX -1.14%) provides a 'great' entry point, says Piper Jaffray, who reiterates their 'Overweight' rating on the stock with a $90 price target.
FrontFour Capital reported a 7.4% passive stake in North American Energy (NOA -0.53%) .
Fifth Third Bank (FITB -0.80%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $25.
L Brands (LB -0.21%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 68 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 40 cents-45 cents, weaker than consensus of 48 cents.
United Natural Foods (UNFI -0.75%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $2.86-$2.98, below consensus of $3.05.
Mattel (MAT -1.70%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $28.
Leidos (LDOS -0.29%) was awarded a $4.3 billion contract by the U.S. Department of Defense as part of the Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization Program to provide an electronic health record solution, integration activities and deployment across the U.S. military health system.
SpartanNash (SPTN -1.93%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, above consensus of 51 cents.
Synopsys (SNPS +0.62%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 63 cents, higher than consensus of 59 cents.
NetApp (NTAP -1.65%) shot up over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 29 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) this morning are down -15.50 points (-0.75%) at a 1-week low. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.83%, Dow Jones -0.93%, Nasdaq -0.69%. The S&P 500 closed lower Wednesday after crude oil plunged to a 6-1/3 year low, which undercut energy producers, while raw-material and industrial stocks closed lower on China growth concerns after copper fell to a 6-year low. Stocks briefly recovered from their worst levels after the Jul 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes said that policy makers need to see further improvement in the labor market and inflation before they begin to raise interest rates.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.16%) this morning are up +8 ticks at a 1-week high. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 +20.50, FVU5 +13.00. Sep T-notes closed higher Wednesday after stocks sold-off, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes, and after crude oil skid to a 6-1/3 year low, which reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note inflation breakeven rate dropped to a 7-month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.131 (-0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0051 (+0.46%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21 (+0.17%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.681 (-0.70%), EUR/USD +0.00975 (+0.88%), USD/JPY +0.022 (+0.02%). The dollar closed lower Wednesday after the Jul 28-29 FOMC minutes said that policy members wanted to see improvement in the labor market and inflation before they start to hike interest rates. Another negative for the dollar was the fall in USD/JPY to a 2-week low as the swoon in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -0.87%) this morning is down -63 cents (-1.53%0 at a contract low and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -1.93%) is down -0.0351 (-2.48%) at a contract low. Wednesday's closes: CLV5 -2.26 (-5.24%), RBV5 -0.0737 (-4.97%). Oct crude Wednesday fell to a contract low and nearest-futures (U15) crude slumped to a 6-1/3 year low after weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose (+2.62 million bbl vs. expectations of a -820,000 bbl decline). Crude prices were also pressured after crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +326,000 bbl, the first increase in 4 weeks.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/20/2015

US	0245 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers keynote address at the Bank of Indonesia-BIS Research Conference in Jakarta, Indonesia.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 270,000, previous +5,000 to 274,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -8,000 to 2.265 million, previous +15,000 to 2.273 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jul existing home sales expected -1.1% to 5.43 million, Jun +3.2% m/m to 5.49 million.
	1000 ET	Jul leading indicators expected +0.2%, Jun +0.6%.
	1000 ET	Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +1.1 to 6.8, Jul -9.5 to 5.7.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $15 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Aug 25-27.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $16 billion of 5-year TIPS in reopening of April 5-year TIPS maturing Apr-2020.
	2020 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayan Kocherlakota speaks in Seoul at a Bank of Korea event titled Macroeconomic Policy and Price Measurement Issues in a Low Inflation Environment.
GER	0200 ET	German Jul PPI expected unch m/m and -1.3% y/y, Jun -0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jul retail sales including auto fuel expected +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +4.0% y/y. Jul retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.4% m/m and +4.3% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y.
	0600 ET	UK Aug CBI trends total orders expected unch at -10. Aug CBI trends selling prices, Jul 1.
EUR	0730 ET	ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks on an academic panel about Europes Crisis: Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, or Real Investment?
JPN	2135 ET	Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Jul 51.2.
CHI	2145 ET	China Aug Caixin flash manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 48.2, Jul 47.8.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/20/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
L Brands Inc	LB US	9:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Gap Inc/The	GPS US	16:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.64
Ross Stores Inc	ROST US	16:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.623
Hewlett-Packard Co	HPQ US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.856
Intuit Inc	INTU US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	-0.112
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.175