Monday, October 5th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.64%) are up +0.48% and European stocks are up +2.92%, both at 1-1/2 week highs, after Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls pushed back expectations of a Fed interest rate increase into Q1 of next year. Basic resource companies and energy producing stocks are higher as crude oil and copper rose. European stocks also found support on speculation the ECB may expand its stimulus measures after the Eurozone Sep Markit composite PMI was revised lower and after Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence fell to a 9-month low. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.58%, Hong Kong +1.62%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.57%, Australia +1.95%, Singapore +2.08%, South Korea +0.35%, India +2.15%. Emerging stocks and currencies rose along with Asian stock markets after Friday's smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep payrolls boosted speculation the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates this year. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a 2-week high and Chinese markets were closed and will remain closed until Thursday for holiday.The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) is down -0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.26%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27%.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.06%)are down -3.5 ticks.
Speaking in an interview Saturday, Boston Fed President Rosengren said the U.S. economy needs to be growing at a 2.0% pace in the second half of the year to justify an interest rate increase by December. He added that the slower rate of job gains last month and weaker exports validated the FOMC's decision to not raise rates at its September meeting.
The Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence fell -1.9 to 11.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.8 to 11.8 and the lowest in 9 months.
The Eurozone Sep Markit composite PMI was revised lower to 53.6 from the originally reported 53.9.
Eurozone Aug retail sales were unch m/m, right on expectations, and up +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) final-Sep Markit U.S. services PMI (expected unch at 55.6, prelim-Sep -0.5 to 55.6), and (2) Sep ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected -1.5 to 57.5, Aug -1.3 to 59.0).None of the Russell 2000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: The China-Russia E-Commerce Summit on Mon, Oil & Money Conference on Tue, Barclays Select Series Biosimilars Symposium on Wed, Capital Link Shipping Marine Services and Offshore Forum on Wed, and Goldman Sachs EMEA Leveraged Finance Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
General Electric (GE +1.11%) jumped over 4% in pre-market trading after Trian Fund Management LP disclosed a $2.5 billion stake in the company, making it one of the 10 largest shareholders.Adidas (ADDYY +1.04%) was raised to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Hamburger Sparkasse.
Lam Research (LRCX +1.92%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital Markets.
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM +5.33%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at BB&T Capital Markets.
Toll Brothers (TOL +1.43%) was upgraded to 'Positive' form 'Neutral' at Susquehanna with a price target of $42.
Google (GOOG +2.56%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after the stock was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
S&P cut the ratings outlook on Exxon Mobile (XOM +2.46%) and Chevron (CVX +4.10%) to 'Negative' from 'Stable.'
Endo International Holder (ENDP +1.49%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after TPG Group reported a 7.6% passive stake in the company.
Gilead (GILD +0.01%) won U.S. FDA approval for use of its Letairis drug in combination with tadalafil for treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.
Tesla (TSLA +3.21%) reported it delivered 11,580 vehicles in Q3, up +49% y/y.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.64%) this morning are up +9.25 points (+0.48%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +1.43%, Dow Jones +1.23%, Nasdaq +1.78%. The S&P 500 index on Friday recovered from early losses and closed higher on expectations for the Fed to delay an interest rate increase until at least Q1-2016 after Sep non-farm payrolls rose less than expected. Stocks initially opened lower on (1) the +142,000 increase in U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls, less than expectations of +200,000, and the downward revision in Aug non-farm payrolls to +136,000 from +173,000, and (2) the -1.7% decline in U.S. Aug factory orders, weaker than expectations of -1.2% and the biggest decline in 8 months.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.06%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. TYZ5 +19.00, FVZ5 +14.75. Dec T-notes on Friday rallied sharply to a 5-3/4 month nearest-futures high and closed higher on the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls, which pushed expectations for a Fed rate hike into next year. T-notes also received a boost from the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep hourly earnings and the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Aug factory orders, which fell by the most in 8 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) this morning is down -0.102 (-0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0029 (+0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32 (+0.27%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.355 (-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.0021 (+0.19%), USD/JPY -0.02 (-0.02%). The dollar index on Friday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower on the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep payrolls, which reduces the case for the Fed to raise interest rates this year. In addition, USD/JPY fell to a 4-week low on the early slide in stocks, which increased the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Nov crude oil (CLX15 +0.70%) this morning is up +44 cents (+0.97%) and Nov gasoline (RBX15 +1.33%) is up +0.0183 (+1.36%). Friday's closes: CLX5 +0.80 (+1.79%), RBX5 -0.0194 (-1.42%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were initially undercut by the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls, which signals slower economic growth and energy demand. Gasoline saw weakness after the National Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Joaquin will remain offshore in the Atlantic and miss the U.S. East Coast entirely, which eliminated concerns about refinery disruptions. Nov crude rebounded from a 1-week low and closed higher on the recovery in stocks and the fall in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/05/2015
| US | 0945 ET | Final-Sep Markit U.S. services PMI expected unch at 55.6, prelim-Sep -0.5 to 55.6. Final-Sep U.S. Composite PMI, prelim-Sep -0.4 to 55.3. |
| 1000 ET | Sep ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected -1.5 to 57.5, Aug -1.3 to 59.0. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA weekly crop progress. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Sep Markit services PMI, previous -0.6 to 54.3. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Sep composite PMI, previous -0.4 to 53.9. |
| 0430 ET | Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence expected -1.8 to 11.8, Sep 13.6. | |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Aug retail sales expected unch m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jul +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Sep Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.4 to 56.0, Aug 55.6. |
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