Friday, February 6th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.09% ahead of the U.S. Jan payrolls report and European stocks are down -0.53% after German Dec industrial output rose less than expected. Russia's Micex Stock Index soared nearly 3% to a 3-3/4 year high as the recent rebound in crude prices has boosted Russian energy producers. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande are set to meet Russian President Putin today in Moscow to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.82%, Hong Kong -0.35%, China -1.62%, Taiwan -0.59%, Australia +0.16%, Singapore +0.73%, South Korea +0.15%, India -0.46%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 6-week low after data this week fueled concern of a slowdown in China's economy. Chinese stocks continue to fall despite the action by the PBOC on Wednesday to cut the reserve ratio of banks. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +2.73%) is up +3.45% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.26%) is up +2.86%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.07%) is up +0.13%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.73%) is down -0.52% after German industrial production rose less than expected and after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +2,354 MT to a 9-3/4 month high of 139,396 MT. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.14%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.28%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.19%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.02%) are down -1 tick.German Dec industrial production rose +0.1% m/m, less than expectations of +0.4% m/m. On an annual basis, Dec industrial production fell -0.7% y/y, more than expectations of -0.3% y/y and the biggest year-over-year decline in 4 months.
The Japan Dec leading index CI rose +1.3 to 105.2, less than expectations of +1.5 to 105.4. The Dec coincident index climbed +1.5 to 110.7, better than expectations of +1.3 to 110.5 and the highest in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan payroll report is expected to show an increase of +230,000 (private payrolls expected +225,000). Today’s Jan unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from December’s 6-1/2 year low of 5.6%. Today’s Dec consumer credit report is expected to show another strong increase of +$15.0 billion, up from Nov’s +$14.08 billion but mildly below the year-to-date monthly average of +$18.2 billion.There are 16 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: AON PLC (consensus $1.86), Moody's (0.95), Marsh & McLennan Cos. (0.66), Harris Corp. (1.18), FLIR Systems (0.48), Dominion Resources (0.83), Sigma-Aldrich (1.09). There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
AON Plc (AON +0.64%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.89, better than consensus of $1.86.Bloomberg reported that RadioShack (RSH unch) has filed for bankruptcy protection.
McKesson (MCK +2.38%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.89, well above consensus of $2.61.
Standard Pacific (SPF -1.63%) reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, above consensus of 15 cents.
Tempur Sealy (TPX -0.87%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, better than consensus of 85 cents.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI +1.39%) fell 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 94 cents, above consensus of 88 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.15, below consensus of $1.43, and lowered its fiscal 2015 revenue estimate to $4.40 billion, below consensus of $4.71 billion.
CME Group (CME +1.78%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 95 cents, higher than consensus of 93 cents.
News Corp. (NWSA +0.90%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 26 cents, more than consensus of 24 cents.
Symantec (SYMC +1.45%) reported Q3 EPS of 53 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents.
Kemper (KMPR +1.82%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.02, well above consensus of 70 cents.
Twitter (TWTR +1.33%) surged more than 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 12 cents, double consensus of 6 cents.
Expedia (EXPE +0.15%) slumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, well below consensus of $1.01.
Nuance (NUAN -1.11%) reported Q1 EPS of 25 cents, higher than consensus of 22 cents.
LinkedIn (LNKD +2.56%) rose over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 61 cents, beter than consensus of 53 cents.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD -0.43%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.07, weaker than consensus of $1.11.
Lionsgate (LGF +1.84%) reported Q3 adjsuted EPS of 79 cents, above consensus of 64 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.09%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +1.03%, Dow Jones +1.20%, Nasdaq +0.83%. Bullish factors included (1) the +11,000 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, less than expectations of +25,000 to 290,000, (2) increased M&A activity after Pfizer agreed to buy Hospira for $17 billion, and (3) strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.02%) this morning are down -1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -4.50, FVH5 -1.00. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims, (2) a rise in inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-3/4 month high, and (3) a rally in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week high, which reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.135 (+0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0032 (0.28%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.22 (-0.19%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower: Dollar index -0.417 (-0.44%), EUR/USD +0.01338 (+1.18%), USD/JPY +0.257 (+0.22%). Negative factors included (1) the unexpected widening of the U.S. Dec trade deficit to the largest deficit in 2 years, and (2) strength in EUR/USD after the European Commission raised its 2015 Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.1% projected in Nov and after the Scweiz am Sonntag newspaper reported the SNB was buying euros to weaken the Swiss franc.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +2.73%) this morning is up +$1.74 a barrel (+3.45%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.26%) is up +0.0436 (+2.86%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Thursday closed higher: CLH5 +2.03 (+4.19%), RBH5 +0.0476 (+3.21%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, (2) a rally in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) the ongoing strike by the United Steelworkers union, which represents employees at more than 200 refineries and 10% of U.S. refining output, which may lead to reduced gasoline and distillate output.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/06/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Jan non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, Dec +252,000. Jan private payrolls expected +225,000, Dec +240,000. Jan manufacturing payrolls expected +12,000, Dec +17,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 5.6%, Dec -0.2 to 5.6%. |
| 0830 ET | Jan avg hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Jan avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.6 hours. | |
| 1245 ET | Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy to the Southwest Florida Business Leaders Luncheon. | |
| 1500 ET | Dec consumer credit expected +$15.000 billion, Nov +$14.081 billion. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Dec leading index CI expected +1.5 to 105.4, Nov 103.9. Dec coincident index expected +1.3 to 110.5, Nov 109.2. |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Dec industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and -0.5% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/06/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aon PLC | AON US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.86 |
| Moody's Corp | MCO US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.948 |
| Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc | MMC US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.66 |
| Harris Corp | HRS US | 6:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.18 |
| FLIR Systems Inc | FLIR US | 7:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.481 |
| St Jude Medical Inc | STJ US | 8:00 | Investor Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Aon PLC | AON US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Corning Inc | GLW US | 8:30 | Investor Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Harris Corp | HRS US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc | MMC US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Kimco Realty Corp | KIM US | 10:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| FLIR Systems Inc | FLIR US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Moody's Corp | MCO US | 11:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Apartment Investment & Management Co | AIV US | 13:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Dominion Resources Inc/VA | D US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.83 |
| Sigma-Aldrich Corp | SIAL US | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.085 |
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