Tuesday, May 6, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CVALL 5/6

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are down -0.07% as the unrest in Ukraine intensifies. Ukraine's Interior Ministry said that rebels have seized more than 30 government buildings in the eastern part of the country, and that government forces were sent to the southern city of Odessa to quell disturbances there. Losses in European stocks were limited after the OECD raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP estimates and after Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holiday, China +0.04%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore +0.12%, India +0.28%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) is up +0.22%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.29%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.11%) is down -0.02%. July copper (HGN14 +0.29%) is up +0.16%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) is down -0.39% at a 6-1/4 month low after the OECD cut its U.S. 2014 GDP estimate. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.43% at a 1-1/2 month high on expectations the ECB will refrain from additional stimulus measures at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.30%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -3.5 ticks ahead of the start of the Treasury's May quarterly refunding.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its global 2014 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 3.6% predicted in November, the second reduction in 6 months, as it lowered its China 2014 GDP estimate to 7.4% from a Nov estimate of 8.2%. The OECD hiked its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% from a 1.0% estimate in Nov, while it lowered its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to 2.6% from a 2.9% estimate in Nov.
The Eurozone Markit Apr composite PMI was left unchanged at 54.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.
Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, better than expectations of -0.2% m/m, while on an annual basis Mar retail sales rose +0.9% y/y, less than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
The UK Markit/CIPS Apr composite PMI rose +1.4 to 59.2, the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s March U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$40.5 billion from -$42.3 billion in February. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are 26 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Walt Disney (consensus $0.95), Allstate (1.20), Emerson Electric (0.81), First Solar (0.52), Marathon Oil (0.72), Electronic Arts (0.11), Whole Foods Markets (0.41).
Equity conferences this week include: Barclays Chemical ROC Stars Conference on Tue, Barclays High Yield Bond & Syndicated Loan Conference on Tue, Robert W. Baird & Co. Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, and
Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference on Wed-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Avago (AVGO -0.03%) jumped over 4% in pre-market trading after it was announced that it will replace LSI Corp. (LSI unch) in the S&P 500 as of the May 7 close.
Emerson Electric (EMR +0.13%) reported Q2 EPS of 77 cents, weaker than consensus of 81 cents.
Discovery Commnications (DISCA +1.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.
DirecTV (DTV -0.04%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.44, below consensus of $1.48
EOG Resources (EOG +2.26%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, better than consensus of $1.20.
Barron's reported that four Discover (DFS -0.16%) insiders sold 140,353 shares of stock.
Axiall (AXLL +0.91%) reported a Q1 adjusted EPS loss of -8 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -5 cents.
athenahealth (ATHN -0.02%) plunged 10% in after-hours trading after activist investor David Einhorn said he is short the stock.
Murphy USA (MUSA +4.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 21 cents, below consensus of 22 cents.
Alleghany (Y +0.56%) reported Q1 EPS of $12.28, well above consensus of $8.02.
Thor Industries (THO -0.34%) reported Q3 preliminary revenue of $1.05 bllion, below consensus of $1.09 billion.
Anadarko (APC -0.08%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.26, better than consensus of $1.16.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG -1.08%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.17, stronger than consensus of $1.97.
AIG (AIG +0.71%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, higher than consensus of $1.07.
Genpact (G -1.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Monday shook off early losses and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.19%, Dow Jones +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.49%. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) Chinese growth concerns after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.1 from the originally reported 48.3, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 48.4, and (2) geopolitical risks after violence in Ukraine spread to the southern part of the country. Stocks rebounded after the Apr ISM non-manufacturing index rose +2.1 to 55.2, a larger increase than expectations of +0.9 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 8 months.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Apr ISM non-manufacturing index that expanded at the fastest pace in 8 months, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $69 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week's May quarterly refunding. Closes: TYM4 -2.50, FVM4 unch.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) this morning is down -0.308 (-0.39%) at a 6-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0060 (+0.43%) at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower. Dollar index -0.030 (-0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.066 (-0.06%). Negative factors for the dollar included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell to a 2-week low after BOJ Governor Kuroda said in a CNBC interview that the economic recovery is on track, which dampened speculation the BOJ would add to monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on speculation that the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting will refrain from additional stimulus measures.
Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) this morning is up +22 cents (+0.22%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.0084 (+0.29%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Jun gasoline at a 4-week low. Bearish factors included (1) concern that China's economy may slow further after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower, and (2) weakness in gasoline on expectations for U.S. refiners to begin to ramp up gasoline production for the summer driving season as seasonal maintenance to refiners ends. Closes: CLM4 -0.28 (-0.28%). RBM4 -0.03538 (-1.20%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/06/2014
US0830 ETMar trade deficit expected -$40.5 billion, Feb -$42.3 billion.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion of 3-year T-notes.
1900 ETFed Governor Jeremy Stein speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
GER0355 ETRevised German Apr Markit/BME composite PMI, previous 56.3.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Apr Markit composite PMI, previous 54.0.
0500 ETEurozone Mar retail sales expected -0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
UK1901 ETUK Apr BRC shop price index expected -0.8% y/y, Mar -1.7% y/y.
JPN1915 ETJapan Apr Markit/JMMA composite PMI, Mar 52.8.
n/aJapanese markets closed for Greenery Day holiday.
CHI2145 ETChina Apr HSBC composite PMI, Mar 49.3.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/06/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
DIRECTVDTV USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.479
Rowan Cos PlcRDC USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.201
Zoetis IncZTS USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.367
Denbury Resources IncDNR USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.247
Emerson Electric CoEMR USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.81
NRG Energy IncNRG USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2014-0.13
Vulcan Materials CoVMC USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2014-0.333
HCP IncHCP USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.742
AMETEK IncAME USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.563
International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.253
FirstEnergy CorpFE USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.417
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.708
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.587
DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.555
American International Group IncAIG US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Pitney Bowes IncPBI US8:00Analyst DayY 2014
NRG Energy IncNRG US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Zoetis IncZTS US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
E*TRADE Financial CorpETFC US8:30Annual General MeetingY 2014
DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
AMETEK IncAME US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC US9:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Exelon CorpEXC US9:00Annual General Meeting
Avon Products IncAVP US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Nielsen Holdings NVNLSN US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US9:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Merck & Co IncMRK US9:00Investor Day2014
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT US9:30Annual General Meeting
Tenet Healthcare CorpTHC US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Baxter International IncBAX US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
EOG Resources IncEOG US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Vornado Realty TrustVNO US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Kimco Realty CorpKIM US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Boston Scientific CorpBSX US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Rowan Cos PlcRDC US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US11:00Annual General Meeting
Denbury Resources IncDNR US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Vulcan Materials CoVMC US11:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Varian Medical Systems IncVAR US11:30Investor MeetingY 2014
HCP IncHCP US12:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Allergan Inc/United StatesAGN US13:00Annual General Meeting
FirstEnergy CorpFE US13:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
DIRECTVDTV US14:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Emerson Electric CoEMR US14:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US14:30Annual General Meeting
Danaher CorpDHR US15:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Allstate Corp/TheALL US16:05Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.204
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US16:15Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.953
Frontier Communications CorpFTR US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
First Solar IncFSLR US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
TripAdvisor IncTRIP US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Microchip Technology IncMCHP US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Electronic Arts IncEA US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Whole Foods Market IncWFM US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
ONEOK IncOKE USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.367
Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.061
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.619
Frontier Communications CorpFTR USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.061
First Solar IncFSLR USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.524
Marathon Oil CorpMRO USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.716
Electronic Arts IncEA USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.107
FMC CorpFMC USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.945
Whole Foods Market IncWFM USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.409
TripAdvisor IncTRIP USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.544
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH USAnnual General Meeting
Plum Creek Timber Co IncPCL USAnnual General Meeting
QUALCOMM IncQCOM USInvestor DayY 2014
Google IncGOOGL USGoogle vs. Vringo Inc. Trial Arguments on Dispute of Filtering Technology
AutoNation IncAN USAnnual General Meeting
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY USAnnual General Meeting
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL USAnnual General Meeting
Masco CorpMAS USAnnual General Meeting
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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