Wednesday, February 12, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/12

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.04%) this morning are down -0.01% and European stocks are ahead by +0.41% as emerging-markets rallied on signs of strength in China's economy after China Jan exports and imports accelerated. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.56%, Hong Kong +1.47%, China +0.25%, Taiwan +0.95%, Australia +1.06%, Singapore +0.21%, South Korea +0.17%, India +0.42%. Reduced European sovereign-debt concerns also gave a boost to European stocks after Italy's 10-year bond yield fell to an 8-year low of 3.66%. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.62%) is up +0.46% at a 1-1/2 month high after China Jan crude imports jumped +12% y/y to a record 28.15 MMT. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.76%) is up +0.48%, also at a 1-1/2 month high. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.02%) is down -0.21%. March copper (HGH14 +0.92%) is up +0.86% after China Jan refined copper imports surged +21% m/m and +53% y/y to an all-time high 536,000 MT. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.40% after ECB Council member Coeure said the ECB is considering a negative deposit rate "very seriously." USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.34%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.12%) are down -7 ticks.
The China Jan trade balance was a +$31.86 billion surplus, wider than expectations of a +$23.45 billion surplus. Jan exports jumped +10.6% y/y, well above expectations of +0.1% y/y, and Jan imports rose +10.0% y/y, more than double expectations of +4.0% y/y
Speaking yesterday evening, Dallas Fed President Fisher signaled he is for continued tapering of QE when he said there is little "efficacy derived from additional expansion of the Fed's balance sheet."
Eurozone Dec industrial production fell -0.7% m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
Japan Dec machine orders plunged -15.7% m/m, a much bigger decline than expectations of -4.0% m/m and the largest fall since 1998. On an annual basis, Dec machine orders rose +6.7% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +17.4% y/y.
The Japan Dec tertiary industry index fell -0.4% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3%, but Nov was revised upward to +0.8% m/m from the originally reported +0.6% m/m.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $24 billion of 10-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week’s $70 billion coupon package by selling $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday. There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Dr Pepper (consensus $0.84), Deere (1.53), CBS (0.76), NVIDIA (0.24), Applied Materials (0.22), Cisco (0.46), Equifax (0.91), Whole Foods (0.44), MetLife (1.29).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Stifel Nicolaus Technology, Internet & Media Conference on Mon-Wed, Stifel Nicolaus Transportation and Logistics Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Global Energy Summit on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum on Tue-Wed, E&P Information & Data Management on Wed, Cleantech Innovation Summit on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, BB&T Capital Markets Transportation Services Conference on Wed-Thu, Leerink Swann Global Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu, and Sterne Agee Financial Institutions Investor Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Lorillard (LO +1.01%) reported Q4 EPS of 82 cents, below consensus of 85 cents.
Valspar (VAL -0.21%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.
Deere (DE +0.11%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.81, well above consensus of $1.53.
Packaging (PKG +0.06%) reported Q4 ex-items EPS of $1.04, stronger than consensus of 89 cents.
Willis Group (WSH +1.26%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, weaker than consensus of 49 cents.
Procter & Gamble (PG +1.04%) said it expects an 8 cent-10 cent a share charge due to the devaluation of Venezuela's currency.
Midcoast Energy (MEP +1.01%) reported Q4 EPS of 6 cents, well below consensus of 16 cents.
Senior Housing (SNH -1.09%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Service (SCI +0.34%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 27 cents, higher than consensus of 24 cents.
Fossil (FOSL +1.70%) jumped 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $2.68, stronger than consensus of $2.43.
DaVita (DVA +0.77%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.10, above consensus of 98 cents.
Andersons (ANDE +0.97%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.08, well below consensus of $1.61 as Q4 revenue was $1.6 billion, lower than consensus of $1.74 billion.
Team Health (TMH -1.73%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 46 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents.
Western Union (WU +1.53%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 31 cents, below consensus of 32 cents.
Intuit (INTU +1.78%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q2 EPS to 1 cent-2 cents, well below consensus of 26 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.04%) this morning are little changed, down -0.25 of a point (-0.01%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher after comments from Fed Chair Yellen bolstered optimism in the U.S. economy when she said economic growth has strengthened and there is "broad improvement" in the labor market. Yellen added that while growth has picked up, "the recovery in the labor market is far from complete" and that the FOMC is likely to continue to taper QE in "measured steps." Her comments boosted speculation the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle further cuts in stimulus. Closes: S&P 500 +1.11%, Dow Jones +1.22%, Nasdaq 100 +1.11%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.12%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell back after Fed Chair Yellen said that that the FOMC is likely to continue to taper QE in "measured steps," which was less dovish than market expectations. T-notes were also undercut on supply pressures with the Treasury auctioning $70 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week's Feb quarterly refunding. Closes: TYH4 -11.50, FVH4 -7.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.075 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0055 (-0.40%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.35 (-0.34%). The dollar index Tuesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed slightly lower. Negative factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rallied up to a 2-week high, and (2) comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the labor market recovery is "far from complete," which boosted speculation that the Fed will be slow to remove its overly easy monetary policies. Closes: Dollar index -0.004 (-0.01%), EUR/USD -0.0008 (-0.06%), USD/JPY +0.371 (+0.36%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.62%) this morning is up +46 cents (+0.46%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.76%) is up +0.0131 (+0.48%), both at 1-1/2 month highs. Mar crude and gasoline prices Tuesday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low, (2) expectations for weekly EIA distillate supplies to fall 2.25 million bbl on Wed due to increased demand for heating fuels, and (3) strength in gasoline on supply concerns after researcher Energy Aspects Ltd. said that an average of 1.6 million bpd of U.S. refining capacity will be offline this month due to seasonal maintenance and unplanned shutdowns. Crude prices erased gains and closed lower after Fed Chair Yellen said the Fed will continue to taper QE3. Closes: CLH4 -0.12 (-0.12%), RBH4 +0.0278 (+1.02%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/12/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.4% with purchase sub-index -3.8% and refi sub-index +2.9%.
0845 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on a panel discussion about Economic and Monetary Policy Challenges Facing the U.S. and the Eurozone in 2014.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETJan monthly budget statement expected -$28.5 billion, Dec +$53.220 billion.
JPN0100 ETJapan Jan machine tool orders, Dec +28.1% y/y.
1850 ETJapan Jan domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Dec industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Nov +1.8% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
1030 ETECB President Mario Draghi delivers keynote address at a conference in Brussels titled Progress Through Crisis.
UK0530 ETBOE releases quarterly inflation report.
1901 ETUK Jan RICS house price balance expected 58%, Dec 56%.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/12/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Dr Pepper Snapple Group IncDPS USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.841
Hospira IncHSP USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.498
Lorillard IncLO USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.851
Deere & CoDE USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20141.53
Hospira IncHSP US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Lorillard IncLO US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Applied Materials IncAMAT USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.224
NetApp IncNTAP USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.71
Cisco Systems IncCSCO USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.458
CenturyLink IncCTL USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.589
Equifax IncEFX USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.911
Whole Foods Market IncWFM USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.44
MetLife IncMET USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.294
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USJanuary 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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