Thursday, January 16, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/16

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.16%) this morning are down -0.12% and European stocks are down -0.30%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.39%, Hong Kong +0.37%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia +1.21%, Singapore -0.09%, South Korea +0.25%, India -0.11%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed higher after foreign investment last month rose more than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG14 +0.15%) is up +0.35%. Feb gasoline (RBG14 -0.51%) is down -0.38%. Feb gold (GCG14 +0.03%) is down -0.09%. March copper (HGH14 -0.36%) is down -0.21%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. The Australian dollar tumbled to a 3-1/3 year low against the U.S. dollar on speculation the RBA may be forced to cut interest rates further after Australian employers unexpectedly cut -22,600 jobs last month, worse than expectations for a +10,000 increase. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.06%) are up +1.5 ticks.
In its monthly bulletin for Jan, the ECB stated that "the Governing Council strongly emphasizes that it will maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance for as long as necessary," which echoes the ECB policy statement released after its meeting Jan 9.
Eurozone Dec new car registrations jumped +13.3% y/y to 906,000, the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the largest monthly increase in nearly 4-years.
China Dec foreign direct investment rose +3.3% y/y, better than expectations of +2.5% y/y.
Japan Dec domestic CGPI rose +0.3% m/m, right on expectations, and gained +2.5% y/y, less than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
Japan Nov machine orders rose +9.3% m/m, well above expectations of +1.1% m/m and the biggest increase in 6-months. On a year-over-year basis, Nov machine orders climbed +16.6% y/y, better than expectations of +11.7% y/y.
The Japan Nov tertiary industry index rose +0.6% m/m, less than expectations of +0.7% m/m, and Oct was revised lower to -0.9% m/m from the originally reported -0.7% m/m.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Dec CPI is expected to increase to +1.5% y/y from +1.2% in November. Meanwhile, the Dec core CPI is expected to be unchanged from November at +1.7% y/y. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small decline of -2,000 to 328,000, adding to last week’s decline of -15,000 to 330,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -15,000 to 2.850 million, reversing part of last week’s increase of +50,000 to 2.865 million. Today’s Jan Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a small +2.2 point increase to 8.6, reversing most of December’s decline of -2.8 to 6.4. Today’s Jan NAHB housing market index is expected to be unchanged at 58, holding its ground after the +4 point increase to 58 seen in December.
There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Citigroup (consensus $0.95), Goldman Sachs (4.18), Intel (0.52), American Express (1.25), Charles Schwabb (0.21), Capital One (1.55), UniteHealth Group (1.41). Equity Conferences during the remainder of this week include: J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Mon-Thu.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Goldman Sachs (GS +1.22%) reported Q4 EPS of $4.60, well ahead of consensus of $4.18.
CSX (CSX +1.21%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
Best Buy (BBY +1.40%) fell over 9% in pre-market trading after it reported holiday sales for the nine weeks ended Jan 4, 2014 were down -0.8% compared to teh same period last year.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH +1.11%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.41, right on expectations.
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC +1.08%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.83, better than consensus of $1.64.
BlackRock (BLK +0.72%) reported Q4 EPS of $4.92, well ahead of consensusu of $4.33
Reuters reported that an advisory panel to the U.S. FDA concluded that Merck's (MRK -0.91%) experimental blood clot-preventing drug vorapaxar should be approved to reduce the risk of further heart problems in people who have suffered a heart attack recently.
H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.36%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, well below consensus of 75 cents.
Hirzel Capital reported a 6.0% passive stake in Aeropostale (ARO +0.65%) .
SAC Capital reported a 5.0% passive stake in Textura (TXTR -3.77%) .
J.C. Penney (JCP +1.15%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after ut said it will close 33 stores and cut 2,000 jobs.
Kinder Morgan (KMI -0.03%) reported Q4 EPS of 33 cents, weaker than consensus of 35 cents.
CSX (CSX +1.21%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, below consensus of 43 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.16%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.12%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday rallied to a fresh record high and closed moderately higher. Bullish factors included (1) the World Bank’s hike in its 2014 global GDP estimate to 3.2% from a June projection of 3.0%, and (2) the jump in the Jan Empire manufacturing index to 12.51 from an upwardly revised 2.22 in Dec, better than expectations of 3.50 and the fastest pace of expansion in 20 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.52%, Dow Jones +0.66%, Nasdaq 100 +0.82%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.06%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks rallied and the Jan Empire manufacturing index expanded at its fastest pace in 20 months, which bolsters the prospects for the Fed to keep on tapering QE3. Closes: TYH4 -6.5, FVH4 -4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is down -0.013 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0005 (+0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher after the surge in the Jan Empire manufacturing index to a 20-month high signaled strength in the U.S. economy that will likely prompt the Fed to keep tapering QE3. EUR/USD retreated after Germany’s Federal Statistics Office said German 2013 GDP growth expanded at a +0.4% y/y pace, weaker than expectations of +0.5% y/y and the slowest pace of growth in 4 years. Closes: Dollar index +0.378 (+0.47%), EUR/USD -0.0074 (-0.54%), USD/JPY +0.345 (+0.33%).
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG14 +0.15%) this morning is up +33 cents (+0.35%) and Feb gasoline (RBG14 -0.51%) is down -0.0099 (-0.38%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher. Feb crude posted a 1-week high after weekly EIA crude inventories fell for a seventh straight week as they plunged -7.659 million bbl to a 1-3/4 yr low of 350.234 million bbl. Gasoline prices fell back from their best levels after weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles surged +6.183 million bbl to an 11-month high of 233.152 million bbl. Closes: CLG4 +1.58 (+1.71%), RBG4 +0.0040 (+0.15%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/16/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 328,000, previous -15,000 to 330,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -15,000 to 2.850 million, previous +50,000 to 2.865 million.
0830 ETDec CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +1.2% y/y. Dec CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0915 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams presents a paper titled Monetary Policy at eh Zero Lower Bound: Putting Theory into Practice; and panel discussion on Quantitative Easing and Forward Guidance.
1000 ETJan Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +2.2 to 8.6, Dec -2.8 to 6.4.
1000 ETJan NAHB housing market index expected unch at 58, Dec +4 to 58.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned on Jan 23 (previous $13 billion).
1110 ETFed Chairman Ben Bernanke and San Francisco Fed President John Williams speak at an event titled The Fed Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow at the Brookings Institute.
EUR0200 ETEurozone Dec new car registrations, Nov +1.2%.
0500 ETRevised Eurozone Dec CPI, previous +0.8% y/y and Dec core CPI +0.7% y/y.
GER0200 ETRevised German Dec CPI, previous +0.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y EU harmonized.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/16/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/ThePNC USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.636
PPG Industries IncPPG USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.726
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OHHBAN USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.173
Charles Schwab Corp/TheSCHW USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.208
BlackRock IncBLK USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20134.328
BB&T CorpBBT USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.717
UnitedHealth Group IncUNH US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.405
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGS US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20134.18
Citigroup IncC US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.953
American Express CoAXP USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.25
Intel CorpINTC USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.518
SLM CorpSLM USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.725
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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