Barchart Morning Call 1/24

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 14 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• March E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading -0.23% lower, mainly because of an 8% plunge in Apple overnight due to its disappointing earnings report late Wednesday. Apple's earnings growth fell to its lowest rate since 2003 and sales growth fell to its lowest rate in 3-1/2 years as Apple was hit by rising competition. The Apple news overshadowed good news with stronger-than-expected Chinese and European PMI reports. Asian stocks were undercut by North Korea's threat to conduct another nuclear bomb test. European stocks this morning are down -0.21%. Japanese stocks closed +1.28%, but most of the rest of the Asian stock markets closed lower. Hong Kong closed -0.15%, China closed -0.95%, and South Korea closed -0.90%. Commodity prices are down -0.30% this morning. March crude oil is up +0.21%, March gasoline is down -0.39%, Feb gold is down -0.52%, March copper is down -0.20%, and agricultural prices are trading mostly lower. The dollar index is up +0.13% while EUR/USD is up +0.09% and USD/JPY is up +1.07%. March 10-year T-notes are up 6 ticks.
• The Eurozone Jan consumer confidence index improved to -23.9 from -26.3 in Dec, which was a little stronger than market expectations for a report of -26.0.
• The German Jan manufacturing PMI rose by 2.8 points to 48.8 from 46.0 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations for a 0.8 point increase to 46.8. The Jan services PMI rose by 3.3 points to 55.3 from 52.0 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations of unchanged at 52.0.
• The Eurozone Jan manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 point to 47.5 from 46.1 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations of +0.5 to 46.6. The Eurozone Jan services PMI of +0.5 to 48.3 from 47.8 in Dec was stronger than market expectations for a +0.3 point increase to 47.5.
• China's Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose by +0.4 points to a 2-year high of 51.9 from 51.5 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations of +0.2 to 51.7.
• Japanese Dec exports fell -5.8% y/y, which was weaker than Nov's -4.1% and expectations of -4.2%. Japan's adjusted trade deficit of -800.7 bln yen was wider than market expectations of -761 bln yen, although it was narrower than the Nov report of -852 bln yen. The Japanese trade situation continued to be hurt by strained relations with China of the disputed islands in the East China Sea.
  Market Comments
  • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.23%) on Apple's sharp overnight sell-off on a disappointing earnings and sales report. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher as the House approved the 4-month debt limit suspension and as the technology sector rallied on positive earnings from Google, IBM and AMD. Closes: S&P 500 +0.15%, Dow Jones +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.58%.
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up 6 ticks on lower U.S. and European stocks. March 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed slightly higher as there was some relief that the House approved a debt limit suspension, thus removing the threat--for the time being--of a Treasury default and a wholesale dumping of Treasury securities by foreign investors. Closes: TYH3 +1, FVH3 -0.25.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.10 (+0.13%), EUR/USD is up +0.0012 (+0.09%), and USD/JPY is up +0.95 (+1.07%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed little changed, undercut by reduced safe-haven demand but support by continued foreign investor interest in U.S.-denominated securities with the debt ceiling suspension. Closes: Dollar index +0.05 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.0004 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.10 (-0.11%).
  • March WTI crude oil this morning is up +0.20 (+0.21%) and March gasoline is down -0.0110 (-0.39%). Feb crude oil closed lower on the bearish +3.17 mln barrel increase in API crude oil inventories and on news of a temporary drop in Seaway pipeline (Cushing to Texas) capacity, which will cause a fresh backup in oil inventories at Cushing where Nymex WTI oil futures are priced. Meanwhile, gasoline closed higher on the bullish -1.57 mln barrel decline in API gasoline inventories and on continued strength from refinery disruptions and planned shut-downs for repairs. CLH3 -1.45 (-1.50%), RBH3 +0.0078 (+0.27%).
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    Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): MSFT-Microsoft (consensus $0.74), T-AT&T (0.45), MMM-3M (1.41), UNP-Union Pacific (2.16), BMY-Bristol Myers (0.42), CELG-Celgene (1.32), SBUX-Starbucks (0.57), BAX-Baxter (1.26), LMT-Lockheed Martin (1.82), PCP-Precision Caspt (2.47), RTN-Ratheon (1.31), GWW-WW Grainger (2.61), SWK-Stanley Black (1.28), DOV-Dover (1.07), JNPR-Juniper Networks (0.22), ABC-Amerisource Berger (0.67).
    Global Financial Calendar

    Thursday 1/24/13
    United States
    0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +20,000 to 355,000, previous -37,000 to 335,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 3.200 mln, previous +87,000 to 3.214 mln.
    0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
    1000 ET	Dec leading indicators expected +0.4%, Nov -0.2% m/m.
    1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
    1100 ET	Jan Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected zero, Dec -2.
    1100 ET	Treasury announces details of Jan 28-30 auctions of 2, 5 and 7-year T-notes.
    1300 ET	Treasury auction of $15 billion in 10-year TIPS.
    Germany
    0330 ET	German Jan PMI manufacturing expected 46.8, Dec 46.0. Jan PMI services expected 52.0, Dec 52.0.
    Euro-Zone
    0400 ET	Eurozone Jan PMI composite expected 47.5, Dec 47.2. Jan manufacturing PMI expected 46.6, Dec 46.1. Jan services PMI expected 48.0, Dec 47.8.
    0400 ET	Eurozone Nov current account (seasonally adjusted), 3.9 bln euros. Nov current account, Oct 7.2 bln euros.
    United Kingdom
    0600 ET	UK Jan CBI reported sales expected 15, Dec 19.
    Japan
    1830 ET	Japan Dec national CPI expected -0.2% y/y, Nov -0.2% y/y. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Nov -0.1% y/y. Dec national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.5% y/y, Nov -0.5% y/y.
    1830 ET	Japan Jan Tokyo CPI expected -0.6% y/y, Dec -0.6% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.5% y/y, Dec -0.6% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -0.9% y/y, Dec -1.0% y/y.
    CHI
    2035 ET	China Jan MNI business sentiment indicator.

    
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