Monday, December 16th, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.49%) this morning are up +0.45% and European stocks are up +1.27% on signs of economic strength after the Eurozone Dec manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to its best level in 2-1/2 years. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -1.62%, Hong Kong -0.56%, China -1.61%, Taiwan -0.75%, Australia -0.17%, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.05%, India -0.27%. Japanese stocks were undercut on speculation the BOJ won't expand its stimulus measures after Japan's Q4 Tankan large manufacturers business conditions rose to a 7-year high, while China's Shanghai Composite Stock Index tumbled to a 4-week low after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +0.48%) is up +0.56%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +1.17%) is up +1.04%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.34%) is down -0.42%. March copper (HGH14 +0.17%) is up +0.18% at a 1-1/2 month high on concern over tighter supplies after LME copper inventories slipped -3,825 MT to a 10-1/4 month low of 389,175 MT. Agricultural prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.32%) is down -0.26%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.30%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.08%) are up +4.5 ticks.Japan's Q4 Tankan business conditions large manufacturers rose to 16 from 12 in Q3. That was better than expectations of an increase to 15 and the highest in 7 years.
The China Dec HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to a 3-month low of 50.5, a slower pace of expansion than expectations of +0.1 to 50.9.
The German Dec PMI manufacturing index rose +1.5 to 54.2, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Dec PMI manufacturing index rose +1.1 to 52.7, better than expectations of +0.3 to 51.9 and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Dec PMI composite index rose +0.4 to 52.1, better than expectations of +0.2 to 51.9 and the strongest pace of expansion in 3 months.
The Eurozone Oct trade balance widened to a +14.5 billion euro surplus, right on expectations, from a downward revised +12.4 billion euro surplus in Sep.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
This will be a busy week with the FOMC meeting on Tue/Wed and the Senate’s consideration of the 2-year budget agreement and Janet Yellen’s confirmation as Fed Chair. Today’s Nov industrial production report is expected to show a strong increase of +0.6% following October’s weak report of -0.1%, getting back in sync with the strong increases of +0.5% in Aug and +0.7% in Sep. Today’s Dec Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a +7.21 point increase to 5.00, vaulting back into positive territory after the -3.73 point decline to -2.21 seen in November. There are no major earnings reports today. Equity conferences this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Animal Health Summit on Mon, and Citi Group Connected Car & Telematics Mini-Conference.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.61%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.Twitter (TWTR +6.63%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Marathon Oil (MRO -1.05%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.
Jefferies kept its 'Buy' rating on Apple (AAPL -1.09%) and raised its price target for the stock to $650 from $600.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL +1.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Conway (CNW +0.89%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
General Dynamics (GD +0.41%) was awarded a $115.05 million government contract for engineering, development, and production efforts necessary to support the United States and United Kingdom Trident II Strategic Weapons Systems.
Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.76%) was awarded a $124.53 million government contract modification for the development and production of the common acoustics processing for Technology Insertion 12 through Technology Insertion 14 for the U.S. submarine fleet.
T-Mobile (TMUS +8.65%) is up over 9% in after-hours trading after the WSJ reported that Sprint (S +3.44%) is preparing a possible bid for T-Mobile U.S.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.49%) this morning are up +8.00 points (+0.45%). The S&P 500 index on Friday opened higher after the House of Representatives late Thursday passed the 2-year budget agreement, but stock prices then shed their advance on concern the passage of a budget agreement will give the Fed a green light on cutting QE3. On the positive side, producer price pressures were quiescent after Nov PPI fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and +1.4% y/y. Closes: S&P 500 -0.01%, Dow Jones +0.10%, Nasdaq 100 -0.11%.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.08%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Friday closed little changed. Expectations the Fed will soon slow its bond buying was offset by benign producer prices after the Nov PPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch and the third straight monthly decline. Closes: TYH4 +0.50, FVH4 -0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.32%) this morning is down -0.207 (-0.26%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0041 (+0.30%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18 (-0.17%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly higher. USD/JPY posted a 5-year high before falling back to close lower on expectations the Fed will taper QE3 while the BOJ will expand its asset-purchase program to boost the economy and raise the inflation rate. Pressuring the yen were comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda who said the BOJ aims to keep ultra-easy monetary policy in place beyond its 2-year timeframe. Closes: Dollar index +0.008 (+0.01%), EUR/USD -0.00114 (-0.08%), USD/JPY -0.175 (-0.17%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +0.48%) this morning is up +54 cents (+0.56%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +1.17%) is up +2.74 cents (+1.04%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower with Jan crude at a 1-week low and Jan gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar due to heightened speculation the Fed will taper stimulus sooner rather than later and (2) demand concerns after Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed total U.S. petroleum consumption for the week ended Dec 6 dropped -7.1% to 18.554 million barrels a day, the lowest in 7 weeks. Closes: CLF4 -0.90 (-0.92%), RBF4 -0.0055 (-0.21%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/16/2013
| US | 0830 ET | Dec Empire manufacturing index expected +7.21 to 5.00, Nov -3.73 to -2.21. |
| 0830 ET | Revised Q3 non-farm productivity expected +2.8%, previous +1.9%. Revised Q3 unit labor costs expected 1.4%, previous -0.6%. | |
| 0915 ET | Nov industrial production expected +0.6%, Oct -0.1% m/m. Nov manufacturing production expected +0.4%, Oct +0.3%. Nov capacity utilization expected +0.3 to 78.4%, Oct -0.2 to 78.1%. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| GER | 0330 ET | German Dec PMI manufacturing expected +0.3 to 53.0, Nov 52.7. Dec PMI services expected -0.4 to 55.3, Nov 55.7. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Eurozone Dec PMI composite expected +0.2 to 51.9, Nov 51.7. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Oct trade balance, Sep +14.3 billion euros (sa). | |
| 0900 ET | ECB President Mario Draghi speaks to the European Parliament in Brussels. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/16/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount Gold and Silver Corp | PZG CN | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| IDT Corp | IDT US | 10:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| MetroCorp Bancshares Inc | MCBI US | 11:00 | Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| East West Bancorp Inc | EWBC US | 11:00 | Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| SunCoke Energy Inc | SXC US | 11:00 | FY 2014 Guidance Call | Y 2014 | |
| Berry Petroleum Co | BRY US | 12:00 | Special Meeting - M&A Vote | ||
| General Motors Co | GM US | 13:00 | National Press Club Presents CEO, Dan Akerson | ||
| Unum Group | UNM US | 14:00 | Investor Meeting | 2013 | |
| FuelCell Energy Inc | FCEL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | -0.03 |
| Nicholas Financial Inc | NICK US | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | ||
| Copart Inc | CPRT US | Annual General Meeting |
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