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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.12%) this morning are up +0.05%, while European stocks are down -0.50%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.51%, Hong Kong -1.60%, China -0.55%, Taiwan +0.05%, Australia -1.05%, Singapore -0.76%, South Korea -0.02%, India +0.16%. Global stocks were pressured on speculation that the U.S. and its allies are moving closer to a military strike against Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons on its own people. Concerns over Fed tapering of stimulus along with Syrian tensions have hammered emerging-markets as India's rupee tumbled to another record low of 68.755 per dollar and Turkey's lira slumped to a record low of 2.0693 per dollar. Data from EPFR Global shows that global funds have withdrawn about $44 billion from emerging-market stock and bond funds since the end of May through last week. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Oct crude oil (CLV13 +0.96%) is up +0.50% at a 2-year high on concern that any attack against Syria may spread to other parts of the Middle East and threaten the region's crude exports. Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.90%) is up +0.60%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.28%) is up +0.13% at a 3-1/2 month high as heightened Syrian tensions fuel safe-haven demand for gold. Sep copper (HGU13 -0.63%) is down -0.71%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) is up +0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 -0.05%) are down -4 ticks.Signs are mounting that the U.S. and its allies are moving closer to a military strike against Syria for its alleged chemical weapons attack on its own people last week. President Obama plans to release an intelligence assessment this week and U.K Prime Minister Cameron said his country will put forward a draft resolution at the UN today that authorizes action to protect civilians.
Eurozone July M3 money supply rose +2.2% y/y and +2.5% 3-month average, larger increases than expectations of +2.0% y/y and +2.4% 3-month average,
The German July import price index rose +0.3% m/m and fell -2.6% y/y, close to expectations of +0.3% m/m and -2.5% y/y.
UK Aug CBI retailing reported sales rose +10 to 27 from 17 in July, stronger than expectations of +3 to 20 and the fastest pace of sales in 9-months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s July pending home sales report is expected to be unchanged m/m after June’s decline of -0.4%. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion in 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week’s $98 billion T-note package by selling $29 billion in 7-year T-notes on Thursday. There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Joy Global (consensus 1.36), Chico's (0.32), Brown-Forman (0.71), Seadrill (0.64), Williams-Sonoma (0.47), Guess (0.36), Fresh Market (0.32).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Shale Gas World Argentina Conference on Wed, Jefferies Semiconductor and Hardware Midwest Corporate Access Summit on Wed, Simmons European Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Robert W. Baird & Co. Consumer Corporate Access Day on Thu, and 6th International Financial and Capital Markets Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Chico's FAS (CHS -1.60%) reported Q2 EPS of 27 cents, weaker than consensus of 32 cents.DSW (DSW +7.91%) was downgraded to "Sell" from "Hold" at Brean Capital, citing rich valuation.
Joy Global (JOY -2.95%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.70, well ahead of consensus of $1.36.
Dow Jones reported that Las Vegas Sands (LVS -3.18%) will pay $47 million to settle Department of Justice money-laundering probe.
CNBC reported that the website of the New York Times (NYT -2.93%) has been shut down because of hackers.
Dycom (DY -1.94%) reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, weaker than consensus of 45 cents.
Tiffany (TIF -1.04%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Citigroup based on valuation.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.12%) this morning are little changed, up +0.75 of a point (+0.05%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed sharply lower on concern a possible military attack by the U.S. and its allies against Syria for using chemical weapons on its own people may escalate after Iran's Foreign Ministry warned that a U.S. attack on Syria would drag the whole region into conflict. Stocks ignored the unexpected +0.5 increase in U.S. Aug consumer confidence to 81.5, better than expectations of a -1.3 point decline to 79.0, and (2) the +25 point surge in the Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index to a 2-1/2 year high of 14, stronger than expectations of +11 to zero. Closes: S&P 500 -1.59%, Dow Jones -1.14%, Nasdaq 100 -2.02%.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 -0.05%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand as global equity markets plunged on concern turmoil in Syria may lead to a wider military conflict. Closes: TYU3 +22.00, FVU3 +10.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) this morning is up +0.234 (+0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0046 (-0.34%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32 (+0.33%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. EUR/USD strengthened after German Aug IFO business confidence rose to a 16-month high and USD/JPY fell as a slide in global equity markets boosted the yen on increased safe-haven demand. Closes: Dollar index -0.241 (-0.30%), EUR/USD +0.0024 (+0.18%), USD/JPY -1.475 (-1.50%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 +0.96%) this morning is up +54 cents (+0.50%) and posted a 2-year high in overnight electronic trade of $112.24 a barrel. Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.90%) is up +0.0174 (+0.60%). Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday rallied sharply as Oct crude matched last month's 17-month high and Oct gasoline posted a 1-1/4 month high. The main bullish factor was concern a military strike by the U.S. and its allies against Syria for using chemical weapons may escalate and engulf the entire region and disrupt Middle East crude supplies. Other bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the jump in the German Aug IFO business confidence to a 16-month high, and (3) the unexpected increase in U.S. Aug consumer confidence. Closes: CLV3 +3.09 (+2.92%), RBV3 +0.0782 (+2.76%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/28/2013
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.6% with purchase sub-index +1.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%. |
| 1000 ET | July pending home sales expected unchanged m/m and +7.9% y/y, Jun -0.4% m/m and +9.1% y/y. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Sep GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 7.1, Aug 7.0. |
| 0200 ET | German July import price index expected +0.3% m/m and -2.5% y/y, Jun -0.8% m/m an -2.2% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Eurozone July M3 money supply expected +2.0% y/y and +2.4% 3-mo avg, Jun +2.3% y/y and +2.8% 3-mo avg. |
| UK | 0600 ET | UK Aug CBI reported sales expected 20, July 17. |
| JPN | 1950 ET | Japan July retail sales expected -1.0% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/28/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seadrill Ltd | SDRL NO | 2:56 | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.639 |
| Chico's FAS Inc | CHS US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.323 |
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | 6:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.362 |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 8:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.709 |
| Chico's FAS Inc | CHS US | 8:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 10:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.471 |
| Guess? Inc | GES US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.355 |
| Fresh Market Inc/The | TFM US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.319 |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting | Y 2013 | ||
| United Parcel Service Inc | UPS US | Roadshow - Milwaukee | Y 2013 |
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