Barchart Morning Call 8/27

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Tue Aug 27, 6:42AM CDT

• Article
• Comments (0)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.73%) this morning are down -0.71% and European stocks are down -1.65%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.69%, Hong Kong -0.59%, China +0.23%, Taiwan -0.94%, Australia +0.11%, Singapore -1.63%, South Korea unch, India -3.18%. Most global stocks weakened and bond markets rose after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry said Syria will be held accountable for using chemical weapons, which increases the likelihood of military action against Syria from the U.S. and its allies. Dubai's stock index plunged 7% on concern over the increased risk of conflict in the region, while emerging-market currencies tumbled with India's rupee falling to a record low of 66.075 per dollar, Turkey's lira slumping to 2.0336 per dollar, the lowest since at least 1981, and the Indonesian rupiah sliding to a 4-year low of 10,925 per dollar. European stocks failed to garner much support from a larger-than-expected increase in German Aug business confidence to a 16-month high. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Oct crude oil (CLV13 +1.51%) is up +1.06% and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.93%) is up +0.72% on increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Dec gold (GCZ13 +1.49%) is up +1.29% at a 2-1/2 month high on increased flight-to-safety demand after Iran, a longtime ally of Syria, warned that a U.S. attack on Syria would drag the entire region into conflict. Sep copper (HGU13 +0.12%) is down -0.15%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is up +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.17% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.74%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.27%) are up +10.5 ticks.
German Aug IFO business confidence increased +1.3 from July to 107.5, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 107.0 and its best level in 16-months. The Aug IFO current assessment rose +1.9 from July to 112.0, stronger than expectations of +0.9 to 111.0 and its best level in 16-months, while Aug IFO expectations climbed +0.9 to 103.1, higher than expectations of +0.7 to 103.1 and its fastest pace in 5-months.
China July industrial profits rose +11.1% year-to-date y/y, unchanged from June and the slowest pace of increase in 6-months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s June CaseShiller Composite-20 Home Price index is expected to show a sharp gain of +1.0% m/m and +12.1% y/y, adding to May’s gain of +1.1% m/m and +12.2% y/y. Today’s Aug U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a -1.3 point decline to 79.0, adding to the -1.6 point decline to 80.3 seen in July. Today’s Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +11 point increase to zero, recovering some of the ground lost in July when the index plunged by -18 points to -11. The Treasury today will sell $34 billion in 2-year T-notes, kicking off this week’s $98 billion T-note package. There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Donaldson (consensus $0.45), Tiffany (0.74), DSW (0.79), Avago Technologies (0.66), Workday (-0.18).
Equity conferences this week include Shale Gas World Argentina Conference on Wed, Jefferies Semiconductor and Hardware Midwest Corporate Access Summit on Wed, Simmons European Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Robert W. Baird & Co. Consumer Corporate Access Day on Thu, and 6th International Financial and Capital Markets Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Donaldson (DCI +1.04%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 49 cents, stronger than consensus of 45 cents.
Brown Shoe (BWS +0.81%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 22 cents.
Apache (APA -0.09%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Guggenheim.
Monsanto (MON +1.49%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at UBS.
Tiffany (TIF -0.40%) reported Q2 EPS of 83 cents, beter than consensus of 74 cents.
9to5Mac reported that Apple (AAPL +0.39%) is planning to launch iPhone trade in program as soon as next month that will allow customers that own earlier iPhone models to bring the phones into an Apple store and exchange for a newer iPhone model at a discounted price.
Lone Pine Capital reported 5.4% passive stake in Dollar General (DG +0.98%) .
Wolverine Asset Management reported a 9.99% passive stake in Good Times Restaurants (GTIM +1.89%) .
SAIC (SAI +0.39%) announced it was awarded a $224 million contract by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, or FRTIB for information security and enterprise-wide information technology support services.
Reuters reported that Ackman's Pershing square will sell its entire stake in J. C. Penney (JCP -1.11%) , approximately 39 million shares.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.99%) has been found liable for breach of contract and ordered to pay $42.5 million in damages after being accused of mismanaging an investment account by betting on mortgage-backed securities.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.73%) this morning are down -11.75 points (-0.71%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rallied to a 1-week high after July durable goods orders fell -7.3%, weaker than expectations of -4.0% and the biggest decline in 11-months, which bolstered speculation the Fed may delay tapering its stimulus measures. However, prices gave up their advance late in the session and closed lower after Secretary of State Kerry said President Obama will hold Syria accountable for using chemical weapons, which increases the likelihood of U.S. military action against Syria that may escalate conflict in the Middle East. Closes: S&P 500 +0.39%, Dow Jones +0.31%, Nasdaq 100 +0.72%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.27%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks on a flight-to-safety as global equity markets slide. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed higher after the weaker-than-expected July durable goods orders reduced speculation the Fed will begin to taper its bond buying program next month. Closes: TYU3 +6.00, FVU3 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is up +0.060 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0023 (-0.17%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.73 (-0.74%). The dollar index on Monday closed little changed. Weaker-than-expected U.S. July durable goods orders undercut the dollar on concern the economy is not strong enough for the Fed to begin tapering stimulus. EUR/USD fell back and kept dollar losses to a minimum after euro-negative comments from ECB Council member Demetriades who said that a rate cut "is still in the cards" and that ECB policy members still can't rule out additional rate cuts. Closes: Dollar index +0.046 (+0.)6%), EUR/USD -0.0016 (-0.12%), USD/JPY -0.217 (-0.22%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 +1.51%) this morning is up +$1.12 a barrel (+1.06%) and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.93%) is up +0.0205 (+0.72%) . Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower on signs the economy may not be as strong as expected after July durable goods orders fell a more than expected -7.3%, the biggest decline in 11-months. Gasoline prices were also undercut on speculation demand will drop as the summer driving season ends after the upcoming Labor Day holiday. Closes: CLV3 -0.50 (-0.47%), RBV3 -0.0362 (-1.26%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/27/2013

US	0650 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on a panel in Gothenberg, Sweden titled Challenges for Monetary Policy: Views from the Trenches.
	0900 ET	Jun S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +1.0% m/m and +12.1% y/y, May +1.1% m/m and +12.2% y/y.
	1000 ET	Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +11 to zero, July -18 to -11.
	1000 ET	Aug consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -1.3 to 79.0, July -1.6 to 80.3.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $34 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
GER	0400 ET	German Aug IFO business climate expected +0.8 to 107.0, July 106.2. Aug IFO current assessment expected +0.8 t0 110.9, July 110.1. Aug IFO expectations expected +0.7 to 103.1, July 102.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/27/2013

Company Name	Company Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Donaldson Co Inc	DCI US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.448
Tiffany & Co	TIF US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.736
DSW Inc	DSW US	7:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.793
Tiffany & Co	TIF US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
DSW Inc	DSW US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/The	GT US	9:00	Business Update Call
Donaldson Co Inc	DCI US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Avago Technologies Ltd	AVGO US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.659
Workday Inc	WDAY US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	-0.178
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Minneapolis	Y 2013