Thursday, June 20th, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.94%) this morning are down -0.82% and European stocks are down -2.51%. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -1.74%, Hong Kong -2.88%, China -3.30%, Taiwan -1.35%, Australia -2.12%, Singapore -2.51%, South Korea -2.11%, India -2.74%. Global stocks, bonds and commodities have all fallen sharply after the Fed said it may phase out stimulus. European stocks were also pressured after German manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted further this month. China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled over 3% to a 6-month low after China's manufacturing activity contracted further this month and after its cash crunch worsened. Commodity prices are sharply lower. Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 -1.77%) is off by -2.04%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13 -1.55%) is down -1.84%, Aug natural gas (NGQ13 -1.58%) is down -1.28%, Aug gold (GCQ13 -5.48%) is down -5.47% at a 2-3/4 year low and July copper (HGN13 -1.85%) is down -1.91% at a 1-1/2 month low. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.70%) is up +0.65% at a 1-1/2 week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.71%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.42%. September 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNU13 -0.88%) this morning are down -26 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield has soared overnight to a 1-3/4 year high of 2.45%.The Eurozone Jun PMI composite gained +1.2 points to 48.9, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 48.1 and its best level in 15-months.
The German Jun PMI manufacturing unexpectedly fell -0.7 to 48.7, weaker than expectations of +0.5 to 49.9, although the Jun PMI services rose +1.6 to a 4-month high of 51.3, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 50.0.
German May producer prices fell -0.3% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.1% m/m and the fourth consecutive monthly decline, while prices rose +0.2% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
UK May retail sales ex-auto fuel climbed +2.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, better than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +0.5% y/y, and May retail sales with auto fuel rose +2.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, also stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
The China Jun HSBC flash manufacturing PMI contracted further to 48.3 from 49.2 in May, a sign the economic slowdown in China is deepening.
China's 7-day repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding availability, rose to 11.2%, the highest since data began in 2003 and a sign of a money-market cash crunch, as the PBOC has refrained from using reverse-repos to inject funds into the interbank market since Feb 7.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +6,000 to 340,000, reversing one-half of last week’s decline of -12,000 to 334,000. Today’s May existing home sales report is expected to show a modest increase of +0.6% to 5.00 million, adding to the +0.6% increase to 4.97 million seen in April. Today’s June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +3.2 point increase to -2.0 after the -6.5 point decline to -5.2 seen in May. The Treasury today will sell $7 billion of 30-year TIPS in a reopening of the 5/8% 30-year TIPS security of Feb 2043 that was first sold this past February. The are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kroger (consensus $0.88), IHS (1.05), Oracle (0.87), and TIBCO Software (0.19).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include 9th Annual Commercial Contracts and Chargeback Management on Wed-Thu, 3rd Next Generation Sequencing on Thu, St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2013) on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Sprint (S -4.37%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" at Argus.Reuters reported that Microsoft (MSFT -1.11%) wants to recruit computer geeks in its ongoing efforts to protect Windows PCs from attacks, offering rewards of as much as $150,000 to anybody who helps identify and fix major security holes in its software.
FedEx (FDX +1.07%) was downgraded to "Equal Weight" from "Overweight" at Morgan Stanley.
Rite Aid (RAD -0.64%) reported Q1 EPS of 9 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $6.29 billion was better than consensus of $6.27 billion.
GameStop (GME +0.18%) rose 6% in after-hours trading after Microsoft reversed its rental policy for Xbox One games and will now allow users to trade-in and rent disc-based games the same way they do on the current Xbox 360 console.
Ann Inc. (ANN -0.87%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Perform" at Oppenheimer.
American Eagle (AEO -2.30%) was downgraded to "Perform" from "Outperform" at Oppenheimer.
Red Hat (RHT -0.88%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 32 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.
Jabil Circuit (JBL -0.50%) reported Q3 EPS of 56 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents.
Micron (MU +1.60%) reported Q3 EPS of 4 cents, double consensus of 2 cents.
Nokia (NOK -0.26%) is up 3% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that Microsoft (MSFT -1.11%) and Nokia were in advanced talks on devices business.
Finisar (FNSR +0.55%) is up 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 20 cents, better than consensus of 17 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.94%) this morning are down -13.25 points (-0.82%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower on concern that the Fed is closer to ending its stimulus measures after the post-FOMC statement said the labor market shows “further improvement” and that downside risks to the economy have diminished since autumn. Another negative factor for stocks was the FOMC’s cut in the upper end of its its 2013 U.S. GDP growth estimate range to 2.3%-2.6% from its March estimate of 2.3%-2.8%. Closes: S&P 500 -1.39%, Dow Jones -1.35%, Nasdaq 100 -1.22%.September 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 -0.88%) this morning are down -26 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield has soared overnight to a 1-3/4 year high of 2.45%. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed sharply lower as the 10-year T-note yield soared to a 1-1/4 year high of 2.329% after the hawkish FOMC statement. The FOMC said the labor market shows “further improvement” and that downside risks to the economy have diminished since autumn, while Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed is on course to end QE in mid-2014 if the economy continues to improve. Closes: TYU3 -1-10.5/32, FVU3 -27.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.70%) this morning is up +0.530 (+0.65%) at a 1-1/2 week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0094 (-0.71%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.37 (+1.42%). The dollar index on Wednesday dropped to a 4-month low early in the session but recovered its losses and closed higher after the Fed indicated in its post-FOMC statement that it is closer to tapering QE when it said downside risks to the economy have diminished. Closes: Dollar index +0.678 (+0.84%), EUR/USD -0.00983 (-0.73%), USD/JPY +1.12 (+1.18%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 -1.77%) this morning is down -$2.01 (-2.04%) a barrel and Aug gasoline (RBQ13 -1.55%) is down -5.30 cents per gallon (-1.84%). Aug crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed mixed. Aug crude posted a 4-month high and nearest-futures July climbed to a 9-month high early in the session after the dollar index slid to a 4-month low. However, crude oil prices fell back as the dollar rebounded after the Fed indicated it is closer to ending QE. Another bearish factor was the weekly EIA data that showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly climbed +313,000 bbl vs. expectations of a -500,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLQ3 -0.19 (-0.19%), RBQ3 +0.0128 (+0.45%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/20/2013
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 340,000, previous -12,000 to 334,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -15,000 to 2.958 million, previous +2,000 to 2.973 million. |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1000 ET | Jun Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +3.2 to -2.0, May -6.5 to -5.2. | |
| 1000 ET | May existing home sales expected +0.6% to 5.00 million, Apr +0.6% to 4.97 million. | |
| 1000 ET | May leading indicators expected +0.2%, Apr +0.6%. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amounts of 2-year T-notes (previous $35 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Jun 25-27. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $7 billion 30-year TIPS. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Revised Japan Apr coincident index CI. Revised Apr leading index CI. |
| GER | 0200 ET | German May producer prices expected -0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y. |
| 0330 ET | German Jun PMI manufacturing expected +0.5 to 49.9, May +1.3 to 49.4. Jun PMI services expected +0.5 to 50.2, May +0.1 to 49.7. | |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Eurozone Jun PMI composite expected +0.4 to 48.1, May 47.7. Eurozone Jun PMI manufacturing, May +1.6 to 48.3. June PMI services, May +0.2 to 47.2. |
| 1000 ET | Eurozone Jun consumer confidence expected +0.4 to -21.5, May -21.9. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK May retail sales ex auto fuel expected +1.0% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Apr -1.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y. May retail sales with auto fuel expected +0.8% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Apr -1.3% m/m and +0.5% y/y. |
| 0600 ET | UK Jun CBI trends total orders expected -12, May -20. Jun CBI trends selling prices expected 4, May 4. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/20/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kroger Co/The | KR US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.884 |
| IHS Inc | IHS US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 1.05 |
| Stratasys Ltd | SSYS US | 7:00 | Business Update Call | ||
| IHS Inc | IHS US | 8:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Taubman Centers Inc | TCO US | 8:15 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Kroger Co/The | KR US | 10:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| PVH Corp | PVH US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc | ARIA US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Abercrombie & Fitch Co | ANF US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Best Buy Co Inc | BBY US | 10:30 | Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| TIBCO Software Inc | TIBX US | 16:30 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Oracle Corp | ORCL US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Oracle Corp | ORCL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.874 |
| TIBCO Software Inc | TIBX US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.186 |
| Questar Corp | STR US | Roadshow - Europe - Day 4 | Y 2013 | ||
| Apple Inc | AAPL US | Apple Price-Fixing Trial-Closing Arguments | |||
| Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc | ARIA US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Dollar Tree Inc | DLTR US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Teradata Corp | TDC US | Roadshow - Warsaw | Y 2013 | ||
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Fortinet Inc | FTNT US | Annual General Meeting |
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