Wednesday, April 10th, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.27%) this morning are trading mildly higher by +0.32% due to a +1.47% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and generally higher stocks in Asia. The market is hoping for today's FOMC minutes to show a continued firm dedication among FOMC members to QE3. Japan's Nikkei index today closed +0.73% and the Hang Seng closed +0.75%, but China's CSI 300 index fell by -0.17%. Commodity prices today are little changed on average. May crude oil (CLK13 -0.57%) prices are trading -0.39%, May gasoline (RBK13 -1.16%) is down -0.95%, May natural gas is up +1.32%, June gold (GCM13 -0.49%) is down -0.45%, May copper (HGK13 -0.52%) is down -0.35%, and agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is slightly higher by +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.12% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.52%. June 10-year T-note (ZNM13 -0.09%) prices are down -5 ticks.President Obama today submits his budget to Congress. The budget calls for trimming Social Security and other entitlements in an attempt to get negotiations started on a grand bargain by this summer when Congress must increase the debt ceiling.
The Polish central bank today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.25%, which was fully in line with market expectations. The Polish central bank had already signaled that its rate cut regime is over after the 1.5 point cut since November. The bank is now waiting to see if the Polish economy starts to recover after being hurt by the Eurozone recession.
China's March export growth eased to +10.0% y/y from +21.8% y/y in Feb and was mildly weaker than market expectations of +11.7% . Imports rose +14.1% y/y after the -15.2% decline seen in Feb. China's March trade balance posted a deficit of -$0.88 billion after the $15.23 billion surplus seen in Feb and was much worse than market expectations for a surplus of $15.1 billion. The quality of China's trade data has been called into question by a number of Wall Street firms who believe the trade export data has recently been inflated, possibly by companies seeking to repatriate more foreign currency or by regional governments to prop up their performance. The Chinese customs administration has stood by the quality of the data saying that it is based on actual invoices. In any case, the markets were not surprised to see weaker export growth in March as a reversal to some of the inflated data in Jan and Feb.
Italy today successfully sold 11 billion euros of 1-year bills at 0.922%, down from 1.28% at the last auction of those bills on March 12. The Italian Treasury also sold 3 billion euros of 91-day bills today at 0.243%.
OPEC trimmed its forecast for 2013 world oil consumption growth to +800,000 bpd y/y (+0.09% y/y) from +840,000 bpd last month. The lower forecast was due to weaker demand seen in Q1.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The markets will be carefully assessing today’s minutes from the March 19-20 FOMC meeting to gauge the strength of the FOMC's commitment to maintaining QE3 at its current size at least through year-end. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion in 10-year T-notes. Q1 earnings season picks up today with earnings reports from Constellation Brands (consensus $0.45), Family Dollar Stores ($1.22), Fastenal ($0.37), CarMax ($0.46), Bed Bath & Beyond ($1.68), and Progressive Corp ($0.44).Conferences through the remainder of this week include CESCO 2013 - XII World Copper Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Iron Ore Conference on Wed, and Bio-IT World Conference & Expo 2013 on Wed-Thu.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.27%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.32%) as positive sentiment continues. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed mildly higher as optimism about China increased after its March CPI fell to +2.1% from +3.2% in Feb, which reduces the pressure on Chinese authorities to tighten policy in response to strong home prices. Other supportive factors including stability in European peripheral bonds and carry-over support from the BOJ’s massive new QE program announced last week. Closes: S&P 500 +0.35%, Dow Jones +0.41%, Nasdaq 100 +0.67%.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
- Constellation Brands (STZ +0.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 47 cents, above the consensus of 45 cents.
- CarMax (KMX -1.65%) reported Q4 EPS of 46 cents, which was in line with the consensus.
- Family Dollar (FDO +0.69%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.21, slightly below the consensus of $1.23.
- Fastenal (FAST +1.17%) reported Q1 EPS of 37 cents, which was in line with the consensus.
- Apple (AAPL +0.18%) and Yahoo (YHOO) are in talks to deeper their iPhone partnership, according to the WSJ.
- First Solar (FSLR +45.53%) will acquire TetraSun from JX Nippon Oil & Energy and other investors. The terms were not disclosed.
- PriceSmart (PSMT -0.26%) rallied 3.5% in after-hours trading after reporting positive earnings news.
- Health Management (HMA -0.40%) plunged 10% in after-hours after announcing disappointing Q1 results.
- Realogy (RLGY -2.27%) fell 7% in after-hours trading after a Q1 revenue revenue miss.
MARKET COMMENTS
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.09%) this morning are down -5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with higher U.S. and European stock indexes. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed slightly lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the higher close in the U.S. stock market and reduced concerns about China. Closes: TYM3 -1.5, FVM3 +0.25.The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is slightly higher by +0.05 points (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0016 (+0.12%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51 yen (+0.52%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed moderately lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 index. EUR/USD closed higher as Portugal’s bond and CDS prices were relatively stable and did not indicate any fresh concerns about Portugal’s commitment to its adjustment program. Closes: Dollar index -0.44 (-0.54%), EUR/USD +0.0074 (+0.57%), USD/JPY -0.34 (-0.34%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK13 -0.57%) this morning is down -0.37 (-0.39%) and May gasoline (RBK13 -1.16%) is down -0.0279 (-0.95%). May crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher on continued short-covering and optimism about China with the decline in its CPI rate to +2.1%. Crude oil prices were able to shake off news that API crude oil inventories soared by +5.06 million bbls. In addition, crude oil inventories at Cushing rose by 888,000 bbl to 50.0 million due to the diversion of oil to pipelines feeding Cushing due to the leak at Exxon’s pipeline in Arkansas. Closes: CLK3 +0.84 (+0.90%), RBK3 +0.0331 (+1.14%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/10/2013
| US | n/a | Obama administration scheduled to deliver 2014 budget to Congress. |
| 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.0% with purchase sub-index +1.4% and refi sub-index -5.6%. | |
| 0730 ET | Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart makes concluding remarks at the Atlanta Fed’s conference on “Maintaining Financial Stability: Holding a Tiger by the Tail.” | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1200 ET | USDA WASDE report. | |
| 1210 ET | IMF Chief Lagarde speaks to Economic Club of New York. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury sells $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. | |
| 1400 ET | U.S. March monthly budget statement. | |
| 1400 ET | Minutes from March 19-20 FOMC meeting. | |
| 1700 ET | Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on economic and monetary policy at University of Texas at El Paso. | |
| JPN | 1950 ET | Japan M2 expected +2.9% y/y, Feb +2.9% y/y. March M3 expected +2.4% y/y, Feb +2.4% y/y. |
| 1950 ET | Japan March domestic CGPI expected +0.2% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and -0.1% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Feb machine orders expected +6.9% y/y and -7.6% y/y, Jan -13.1% m/m and -9.7% y/y. | |
| 2200 ET | Tokyo March average office vacancies, Feb 8.57%. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/10/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Brands Inc | STZ US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.447 |
| Family Dollar Stores Inc | FDO US | 7:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 1.216 |
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 7:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.371 |
| MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc | MSM US | 7:30 | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.9 |
| CarMax Inc | KMX US | 7:35 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.455 |
| Advance Auto Parts Inc | AAP US | 8:30 | Investor & Analyst Conference | Y 2013 | |
| Health Management Associates Inc | HMA US | 9:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| CarMax Inc | KMX US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Schlumberger Ltd | SLB US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Family Dollar Stores Inc | FDO US | 10:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 10:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Constellation Brands Inc | STZ US | 10:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Bed Bath & Beyond Inc | BBBY US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.679 |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.444 | |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | Q1 2013 Earnings Release - March Sales | Q1 2013 | 0.444 | |
| Questar Corp | STR US | Roadshow - Day 2 | Y 2013 |
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