Monday, March 25th, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.42%) are moderately higher by +0.43% on the Cyprus bailout agreement that was reached last night. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is sharply higher by +1.64%. Asian stocks today closed mostly higher on the Cyprus bailout. The Nikkei index closed +1.69% and the Hang Seng closed +0.61% but China's CSI 300 index closed -0.20%. Commodity prices are little changed on average this morning. May crude oil (CLK13 +0.49%) is up +0.55%, May gasoline (RBK13 +0.53%) is up +0.31%, April gold (GCJ13 -0.47%) is down -0.29%, May copper (HGK13 -0.10%) is down -0.09%, grains are lower, and softs are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is slightly lower by -0.05% this morning while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.31%. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.25%) are down -10 ticks.Cyprus and troika officials reached a bailout deal late last night that will give Cyprus its 10 billion euro bailout and avert a Cyprus banking system meltdown, sovereign default, and possible exit from the Eurozone. The deal will close Cyprus's second largest bank (Cyprus Popular Pcl) and will put heavy losses on large uninsured depositors, but will protect smaller depositors under the 100,000 euro deposit insurance limit. The Bank of Cyprus, the largest bank in Cyprus, will survive but uninsured depositors will lose up to 40% of their holdings. The Cyprus parliament does not need to vote on last night's deal since it already passed the necessary capital controls and the law to wind down Cyprus's second largest bank last Friday. However, parliamentary votes are necessary in some Eurozone countries to approve the loans being made from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
Cyprus banks and stock market were closed today for a national holiday. There has been no definitive word as yet when they will reopen. The ECB will now keep liquidity flowing to the Cyprus central bank and indirectly to the Cyprus banking system, thus allowing Cyprus banks to survive bank runs when they reopen.
Spanish and Italian bond prices have rallied on relief about the Cyprus deal. The Spanish 10-year bond yield this morning is down -3 bp at 4.81% and the Italian 10-year bond yield is down -7 bp at 4.44%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The markets this week will first react to Sunday night's Cyprus bailout. This is a busy news week ahead of Friday's Good Friday holiday. There are a slew of U.S. economic reports and the Treasury will sell $99 billion in T-notes. This is a light earnings week with only 9 of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings. Monday: Apollo Group (consensus of $0.19) and Dollar General (0.90). Tuesday: SAIC (0.52). Wednesday: PVH (1.50), Red Hat (0.30), Paychex (0.39). Thursday: Mosaic (0.88), Accenture (0.97), Gamestop (2.09).Conferences this week are light with the Good Friday holiday: Canada's Energy Technology Blueprint Summit on Tuesday, Photon's 10th Solar Silicon Conference on Tuesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Auto Summit on Wednesday, CIBC Retail & Consumer Conference on Thursday, and Photon's 8th Solar Electric Utility Conference on Thursday.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.42%) this morning are up +6.75 points (+0.43%) on the Cyprus bailout agreement that was reached last night, along with the sharp 1.64% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index today. The S&P 500 index on Friday settled higher. Stocks were boosted by carry-over support from strength in European equities on optimism that Cyprus would reach an 11th hour agreement before Monday’s ECB deadline for a cut -off of funding for Cypriot banks. A negative factor was the unexpected -0.7 point drop in the March German Ifo business climate index to 106.7, its first decline in five months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.72%, Dow Jones +0.63%, Nasdaq 100 +0.94%.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
- Dollar General (DG +0.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 97 cents, well above the consensus of 90 cents. The company also announced an additional $500 million share repurchase authorization.
- Dell (DELL) received two acquisition proposals in its "go shop process," one from Blackstone (BX -0.95%) and one from Carl Icahn.
- JA Solar (JASO -0.95%) reported Q4 EPS of a -$2.65 loss, much wider than the expected loss of -$1.53.
- Quicksilver Resources (KWK -8.84%) released a revised Q4 non-GAAP EPS of 5 cents, which had previously been reported as a -1 cent loss.
- Pernod Ricard USA, a subsidiary of Pernod Ricard (PDRDY +2.87%) , is voluntarily recalling Absolut TUNE, a mix of wine and vodka, because its label failed to disclose that the product contains sulfites. To date, the company has not received any reports of adverse reactions associated with this product.
- AK Steel (AKS -4.61%) said that the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on March 20 denied ArcelorMittal's (MT -1.17%) petition for re-hearing in its patent infringement lawsuit involving aluminized boron steel.
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Novartis' (NVS +0.27%) TOBI Podhaler for the management of cystic fibrosis patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a bacterium that causes lung infections.
- Caterpillar (CAT +0.75%) was awarded a U.S. government contract with a maximum $633 million for material handling equipment.
- Pilots at Piedmont Airlines, a wholly-owned subsidiary of US Airways (LCC -0.82%), voted to ratify a new five-year collective bargaining agreement that was reached on Feb. 1.
MARKET COMMENTS
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.25%) this morning are down -10 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the Cyprus deal. June 10-year T-note prices on Friday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and finally settled slightly higher as the ongoing Cyprus banking crisis fueled safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYM3 +3.5, FVM3 +1.5.The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is slightly lower by -0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is slightly higher by +0.0011 (+0.08%) on the Cyprus deal. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.29 yen (+0.31%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied on optimism Cyprus will reach an 11th hour agreement before Monday’s ECB deadline for a cut-off of funding for Cypriot banks. Limiting gains in EUR/USD was the unexpected -0.7 point decline in the March German Ifo business climate index, its first drop in five months. Closes: Dollar index -0.364 (-0.44%), EUR/USD +0.0090 (+0.70%), USD/JPY -0.430 (-0.44%).
May WTI crude (CLK13 +0.49%) oil is up +0.52 (+0.55%) and May gasoline (RBK13 +0.53%) is up +0.0094 (+0.31%) on the prospects for an improved global economy with the Cyprus deal. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. The bullish factors of strong stocks and a weak dollar were overshadowed by the Cyprus bailout crisis. Gasoline weakened on speculation that gasoline output will soon increase as spring maintenance by refiners is nearly completed. Closes: CLK3 +1.26 (+1.36%), RBK3 -0.0085 (-0.28%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/25/2013
| US | 0830 ET | Feb Chicago Fed national activity index, Jan -0.32. |
| 1030 ET | March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index expected 3.7, Feb 2.2. | |
| 1215 ET | NY Fed President William Dudley speaks at Economic Club of New York. | |
| 1315 ET | Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, Professor Lawrence Summers, and former ECB council member Axel Weber take part in a public discussion chaired by BOE Governor Mervyn King at London School of Economics. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| JPN | 1950 ET | Japan Feb corporate service price index expected 0.0% y/y, Jan -0.2% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/25/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apollo Group Inc | APOL US | 7:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.191 |
| Dollar General Corp | DG US | 7:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.902 |
| Apollo Group Inc | APOL US | 8:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Dollar General Corp | DG US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| MGM Resorts International | MGM US | 12:40 | Toronto Region Board of Trade Presents Bill Hornbuckle & Wayne Barwise |
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