Barchart's Morning Call - 6/6

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Jun 06, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

June S&P E-minis are up 1.11% this morning on the 2.17% rally in European stocks and on hopes that European officials are getting closer to taking action to aid Spain. The markets are looking ahead to today's ECB decision and the U.S. Beige Book report. T-note prices are down 9 ticks. The dollar index is down -0.35%. Commodity prices are sharply higher on average by 1.09% with gold up 1.21%, copper up 2.05%, crude oil up 1.34%, and agricultural commodities mostly higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 this morning is up 2.17%. Asian stocks today closed mostly higher: Japan +1.81%, Hong Kong +1.43%, China -0.06%, Taiwan +0.80%, Australia +0.29%, Singapore +1.79%, India +2.71%, Turkey +0.46%. The market consensus is that the ECB at its meeting today will leave its refinancing rate unchanged at 1.00%, although Bloomberg found that 27% of respondents in an analyst poll expect the ECB to cut rates by at least 25 bp to 0.75%. German April industrial production fell -2.2% m/m, exactly reversing the +2.2% m/m again seen in March but weaker than market expectations of -1.0%. April industrial production was -0.7% y/y after the +1.4% y/y report seen in March. Spain's April industrial production fell by -8.3% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of -6.5% y/y and March's -7.5% y/y. Spain may received a precautionary line of credit from the temporary bailout facility European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), according to a story today the German newspaper Dei Welt that cited unidentified people with knowledge about talks on the possible option. The Spanish 10-year yield today fell by 6 bp to 6.25%. The Eurozone Q1 GDP was unrevised at unchanged q/q but was revised slightly lower on a year-on-year basis to -0.1% y/y from unchanged y/y.
Market Comments
• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading +14.25 points (+1.11%) on the 2.17% rally in European stocks and hopes that European policymakers are getting close to an aid package for Spain. U.S. stocks on Tuesday closed mildly higher: S&P 500 +0.57%, Dow Jones +0.22%, Nasdaq 100 +0.38%. Bullish factors on Tuesday included (1) some continued short-covering after the recent plunge, (2) the slightly stronger than expected U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index report of +0.2 to 53.7 versus expectations of unchanged, and (3) the +3.0 point increase in the China May non-manufacturing index report of +3.0 to a 19-month high of 54.7. Tuesday's G-7 conference call among finance ministers and central bankers was a non-event with a promise simply for "coordinated" policies.
• Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 9 ticks on the higher trade in global stocks and reduced safe-haven demand. T-note prices on Tuesday closed mixed: TYU2 -5, FVU2 +2. 10-year T-note prices were undercut on Tuesday by the higher trade in U.S. stocks and the +0.2 point increase in the May ISM non-manufacturing index versus expectations of unchanged. The T-note market is looking ahead to today's Beige Book report and Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before Congress on Thursday.
• The dollar index this morning is down -0.289 (-0.35%) and EUR/USD is up +0.0044 (+0.35%) and hopes for European aid for Spain. USD/JPY is up +0.42 (+0.53%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed mildly higher: Dollar Index +0.268 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.0047 (-0.38%), USD/JPY -0.23 (-0.29%). The dollar index was boosted by the slightly stronger than expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing report, while EUR/USD was undercut by a slew of weak European economic data and the Spanish finance minister's call for European aid for Spain's banking sector.
• July WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +1.13 (+1.34%) and July gasoline is up +0.0249 (+0.93%) on the rally in stocks and today's weakness in the dollar index. July crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed mildly higher: CLN2 +0.31 (+0.37%), RBN2 +0.0140 (+0.52%). Bullish factors on Tuesday included short-covering, the mildly higher trade in U.S. stocks, and expectations for the first decline in U.S. oil inventories in 11 weeks in Wednesday's DOE report.
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  Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): BF/B-Brown-Forman (consensus $0.75), PLL-Pall Corp (0.75), GEF-Breif (0.74), MW-Men's Warehouse (0.55).
  Global Financial Calendar
  

  Wednesday 6/6/12
  United States
  0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.3%, purchase sub-index -0.6%, refi sub-index -1.5%.
  0815 ET	Fed's Lockhart speaks on economy in Fort Lauderdale, FL.
  0830 ET	Q1 final non-farm productivity expected revised to -0.7% from prelim -0.5% q/q. Q1 final unit labor costs expected revised to +2.1% from +2.0%.
  1000 ET	Fed's Tarullo testifies on bank supervision to Senate Banking Committee.
  1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
  1400 ET	Fed's Beige Book survey.
  1530 ET	Fed's Williams speaks on the economy in Bellevue, WA.
  1900 ET	Fed's Yellen speaks on economic outlook in Boston.
  United Kingdom
  0430 ET	UK May PMI construction expected 54.7, Apr 55.8.
  1901 ET	UK May BRC sales like-for-like, Apr -3.3% y/y.
  Euro-Zone
  0500 ET	Eurozone Q1 GDP.
  0745 ET	ECB policy meeting results; ECB President Draghi appears at press conference.
  Germany
  0600 ET	German Apr industrial production expected -1.0% m/m, Mar +2.8% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
  Japan
  2200 ET	Tokyo May average office vacancies, Apr 9.23%.

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