Saturday, December 26, 2009

Market gains till the end

Each week I use BarChart to step back from all the noise and evaluate how the market really performed and determine my investing strategy for the coming week. I like the Value Line Index because it contains 1700 stocks giving me a much broader view of the market instead of the more narrow S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30. The market as measured by the Value Line Index was up 3.60% for the week and 8.32% month to date. With only 4 more trading days left we should end the year on a good note.

Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks -- All indicators are positive
  • All 13 BarChart technical indicators have a buy rating for a 100% buy rating overall
  • The index closed on Friday above its 20, 50 & 100 daily moving averages
  • The Index has had a price appreciation in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently
  • The Index has had a 7.89% price appreciation in the last 65 sessions

BarChart Market Momentum Indicator -- percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- approximately 6000 stocks - Positive for all 3 time frames

  • 76.79% closed above their 20 DMA
  • 74.06% closed above their 50 DMA
  • 74.79% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, less than .99 bearish -- very bullish

  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 20 days -- 1614/203 = 7.95
  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 65 days -- 913/124 = 7.36
  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 100 days -- 823/93 = 8.85

Summary and investing strategy -- The market performed well this week and seems to have support across the board. I'll stay fully invested but still trim any stock not maintaining a price above its 50 day moving average. January is usually a strong month so I feel that I can safely replace any stock I cull. Have a great week and a prosperous New Year.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Flash memory in your portfolio

I was screening on BarChart for another addition to the Van Meerten/BarChart New High portfolio -- VMNHI when I came across Sandisk Corp -- SNDK. Sandisk Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets flash memory storage products that are used in a wide variety of electronic systems. The company have designed flash memory storage solutions to address the storage requirements of emerging applications in the consumer electronics and industrial/communications markets. Its products are used in a number of rapidly growing consumer electronics applications, such as digital cameras, personal digital assistants, portable digital music players,digital video recorders and smart phones. Look under your Christmas tree and I bet a gift under it contains a component made by them.

SNDK has had 17 price advances in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. A 65 day price appreciation of 47.39% is in the ball park I like. 13 of 13 BarChart technical indicators give the stock a 100% buy rating.

Wall Street brokerages have recently given out 2 new recommendations of Buy at ThinkEquity and Outperform at JMP Securities. Analysts look for a 17.56% increase in revenue next year and a 16.25% annual increase in EPS for the next 5 years.

Other sites give confirmation: Wall Street Survivor has a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment, 4/5 fundamental rating and a 5/5 technical rating. Motley Fool members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 1612 to 130. The All Stars confirm also by a vote of 416 to 28.

What's not to like?
  • BarChart rating of 100% buy and 17 of 20 sessions of price increases
  • Positive Wall Street brokerage coverage
  • Confirmation on other sites of my research

Recommendation: Adding to Van Meerten/BarChart New High model portfolio -- VMNHI -- around 28.25 with a protective stop loss no lower than 22. The stock has really been moving lately so I'd make sure you increase that stop loss at least once a week.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in SNDK at the time of publication,

Energize your portfolio

There was a little room in the Van Meerten/BarChart New High portfolio --VMNHI so as always I used BarChart to screen for the stocks trading above 100K shares a day that were hitting new highs with the highest frequency. After additional screening EXCO Resources -- XCO was my favorite.

EXCO Resources, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and exploitation of onshore North American oil and natural gas properties. EXCO targets acquisitions of onshore, North American oil and natural gas properties, with particular emphasis on Appalachia, Eastern and Western Texas, Mid Continent and the Rocky Mountain regions. The Company's primary goal is to build value for our shareholders by acquiring quality properties and to enhance the value of assets through control of operations, property development and reduction of costs. A US energy play sounds good to me.

On BarChart the stock has hit 17 price advances in the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. I like the 47.08% price appreciation in the last 65 days. Of BarChart's 13 technical indicators there is a buy on 12 with the other a hold for a 96% overall buy rating.

There are 13 Wall Street brokerage firms with recommendations on this stock and they have 10 buy and 3 hold recommendations out.

On other sites Motley Fool members think this stock will outperform the market by a vote of 388 to 18 with the All Stars voting 85 to 2. The Wall Street columnists have 9 buys to 1 sell but the only sell was Jim Cramer on March 2006 and he hasn't revisited that recommendation lately. The stock is up 79.26% since he last looked at it. Wall Street Survivor has a Survivor Sentiment of 5/5, a fundamental rating of 5/5 and a technical rating of 5/5.

This stock has everything I like for the short run:
  • BarChart rating of better than 80% and hitting new highs more than 50% of the recent sessions
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following - no trash talking
  • Confirmation of my research on other sites.

Recommendation: Adding EXCO Resources -- XCO to Van Meerten/BarChart New High model portfolio -- VMNHI at around 21.96 with a protective stop loss at not less than 18.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in XCO at the time of publication.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Economy improves per the Conference Board

Every month I look forward to the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index report. If you are like me all during the month I read conflicting reports on the health of the economy and I really get confused. When I watch TV, sometimes it seems like the same economist gives a different view of the economy on two different channels and I don't know what to believe.
The reason I like the Conference Board's report is it is very simple. It has just 21 indicators broken into 3 groups and for years has not changed the format of the report. This month the results are:
  • Leading Economic Indicators -- rose by .9% with 6 of 10 indicators increasing -- Consumer expectations was the biggest downer
  • Coincident Economic Indicators -- rose by .2% with 3 of 4 indicators increasing -- Good news was employment was even without a negative figure
  • Lagging Economic Indicators -- still negative with only 2 of the 7 indicators positive -- Consumer and Industrial loans are still a problem

This month we are positive overall with 11 of 21 indicators positive. Does this mean the recession is over? No, but it seems to have hit the bottom of the trough and the daylight at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.

When I look at the report I know that my plans to invest into the market have some backing from the economy. Let's get this party started.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Market had a small but steady gain

It's time again for me to step back, objectively see what the market accomplished for the week and plan my investing strategy for the coming week. I use BarChart for my data and the Value Line Index as my market barometer. I like the Index because it uses 1700 stocks instead of the narrower S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30.

Value Line Index - 1700 stocks - Index up 1.06% for the week and 4.56% month to date - small but respectable gain.

  • The index closed above its 20, 50 and 100 Daily Moving Averages
  • BarChart short term rating -- 80%
  • BarChart mid term rating -- 100%
  • BarChart long term rating -- 67%
  • Overall rating -- 88% -- 11 buys and 2 holds
  • Index closed at 2207.56 almost back to its year to date high of 2239.69

BarChart market momentum -- approx. 6000 stocks -- The percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time periods. 50% closed above the DMA for all 3 time frames.

  • 20 DMA -- 61.96% closed above
  • 50 DMA -- 62.56% closed above
  • 100 DMA -- 69.01 closed above

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, under .99 bearish -- all 3 time periods above 1.0

  • 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 955/791 = 1.21
  • 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 438/291 = 1.51
  • 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 384/192 = 2.00

Summary -- The market didn't set the world on fire but I'd take the gains it made this week any day. A few bumps but up in the end. This week I'll trim any stock falling below its 50 DMA and not be afraid to recommit the funds to replace it. I do expect a little bumpiness between now and the end of the year as investors close out some positions to realize tax losses they might have in individual stocks. Because there will be downward pressure during this tax loss recognition period I don't expect the market to explode or call for any short sale covering. As always January is a month you should prepare to be fully invested.

Wall Street Survivor results -- Remember that all the contributors to Top Stocks that make stock recommendations place those recommendations into model portfolios over on Wall Street Survivor so you can track the results of the recommendations. By the S&P 500 the market was down .88% for the month to date and 7 of our 8 contributors beat that benchmark, John Reese came in 1st with a 4.5% MTD return and I came in 7th with a .46% return. Not much but I did beat the benchmark.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any of the stocks held in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Please define: Fat Cat

Maybe I read too much in between the lines when I see political sound bites but I know that the words are well chosen and should have been vetted by several aides before being given to the President. Recently he was saying that financial fat cats didn't deserve the big bonuses. He also said that his new job bill would make it so that every person who "wanted" to work could find a job.

Am I wrong to ask why he didn't say that his job bill would provide a job for every "able bodied" person? What's with this "wanting" to work. Everyone between 21 & 62 needs to work.

I know that people dwell on the unemployment figures but at the same time we also have 12 - 20 million undocumented workers who are doing something unheard of -- working! There are actually some unfilled jobs out there. Not enough to employ everyone but lots of jobs go unfilled because "it's just not my cup of tea". Remember when President Fox of Mexico took heat because he said Mexicans were not taking away jobs from Americans, they were working at jobs Americans wouldn't take. Was he wrong?

When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans I remember a newscaster interviewing a woman who was just informed that the public housing project she lived in was destroyed and she couldn't return. She was crying and she didn't know what to do. She said: "How will I get by? I was born in that project, raised my babies and grand babies there. What can I do?"

4 generations on public assistance and not a single one broke out of that cycle.

Recently, our school board announced that they were starting a new alternative high school for students between the ages of 18 & 22 who were still freshman. They had to open this school because conventional schooling didn't meet the needs of these students. Did anyone ever consider that these kids weren't meeting the need of the rest of us? Most of these kids hadn't shown up enough days to learn anything.

My county will admit to a 45% high school drop out rate. If I take the number of kids in 8th grade and compare that to the number of kids graduating from high school the figure is way above a 50% drop out rate.

I am all for public assistance to the aged, mentally, physically or medically disadvantaged but not welfare for the able bodied.

My definition of a Fat Cat is not the over achiever who shows up to work every day, has a job that's a passion, works 12 -14 hours a day, is ultra productive and might get a big bonus. My Fat Cat is the person who is of sound mind and body who opts out of productive work or education but at the end of the day expects to get a handout anyway. Everyone deserves an opportunity to work but only those who work deserve a paycheck.

I agree that our country is not spreading its fruits and wealth as it should. I'd rather concentrate on making ever productive member of society give their fair share of work effort. If you are able and won't work, don't expect a hand out. If we take the money we now give out in public assistance and make sure only the deserving get it then there would be a larger piece of the pie for the needy. The disadvantaged don't need to share their assistance with those who aren't disadvantaged.

I'm still trying to figure out why our President feels only those who "want" to work are the only ones who need to work. Please help me out on my confusion.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure : No stocks mentioned

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Worldgate Comm - WGAT deleted

WorldGate Comm -- WGAT will have a sell order at the opening from the VMNHI portfolio . No maintaining price levels above its 50 DMA

Cedar Fair was my Christmas present to you!!

On Monday December 11 in my article Cedar Fair: Add some fun to your portfolio, I told you that there was unexplained price action in this stock and that such price action sometimes meant a favorable press release or acquisition announcement was pending. I advised buying around 9 with a protective stop loss at 8 in case something happened.

Below is today's press release. If you bought at 9 and your shares are acquired from you at 11.50 you have 2.50 per share profit. 2.50/9 = 22.78% profit. Not bad for a 10 day investment.

Merry Christmas - now pay off your credit card with these profits so you won't have to worry about how to pay for all those presents under the tree.

Press release:
Cedar Fair LP, the owner of Kings Island theme park in Mason, will be acquired by Apollo Global Management under a definitive merger agreement announced Wednesday.
Apollo, a private equity firm, will pay $11.50 in cash for each limited partnership unit, for a total of about $2.4 billion, according to a news release. Shares of Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) opened at $9.08 Thursday.
The deal is subject to approval by unit-holders, as well as regulatory approvals and other conditions. Pending those approvals, the deal will close by the beginning of second-quarter 2010, Cedar Fair said.
The company can also solicit other proposals from third parties for 40 days, under the terms of the agreement.
At the deal’s completion, Cedar Fair will become a private company, owned by an Apollo affiliate.
“We have considered a wide range of strategic alternatives over the past several years,” said Dick Kinzel, chairman, president and CEO of Cedar Fair, in the release. “After considering these strategic alternatives, we have concluded that the transaction with Apollo is in the best interest of our unit-holders.”
Apollo Global Management, with offices in New York, Los Angeles, London, Singapore, Frankfurt and Mumbai, has more than $51 billion in assets under management.
Cedar Fair posted third-quarter net income of $107.6 million, or $1.92 per share, compared to $91.5 million, or $1.65 per share in the year-ago quarter. Total net revenues fell to $519.9 million from $540.3 million. The company said in November that it would suspend its dividend beginning in 2010 to pay down short-term debt.
Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), headquartered in Sandusky, is a publicly traded partnership that owns and operates 11 amusement parks, six outdoor waterparks, one indoor waterpark and five hotels in eight states and Ontario. The company acquired Kings Island in June 2006, as part of its $1.24 billion purchase of Paramount Parks.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in this stock at time of publication

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Where does President Obama get his advice?

Lately I'm having a very hard time trying to figure out who is prioritizing the Administration's missions and goals. The President told the bankers that they had a duty to fund mortgages and make small business loans to simulate the economy. He holds press conferences to urge everyone to fund public health care and start spending. Every time he holds a press conference it is either about spending money the government doesn't have or taking away the incentive to produce goods and services by taxing to death the people he is counting on to kick start the economy.

Someone needs to tell him that most of the behavior he is demanding is the very behavior that got us into this mess. What happened is evident. It's not really rocket surgery!

I can tell the President how to fix the economy. First make mandatory reading of every one in his administration Dr. Stanley's book "The Millionaire Next Door". Dr Stanley, a GSU professor has made a life's work studying how people get rich. Most had a very simple plan: 1 -- spend less money than you make and invest the difference and 2 -- don't have any consumer debt, only borrow to invest in productive assets.

Second is to ask bankers to make consumer loans for mortgages only to people that can pay them back. Any one who can put 20% down , buy a home that is no more than 3 times their income and with that loan has a debt service of less than 30% of their take home pay deserves a mortgage -- the rest don't.

Third, make loans to small businesses that need to buy productive assets to fill orders they have in hand but do not have the present capacity to fill. The other night when flipping channels I hit a reality show who's name I can't remember. People with small business ideas pitched investing in their company to venture capitalists. Most came in with a product, market research, focus group results and a well prepared pitch book. One of these guys always asked the same question: " Besides all your research, how may orders do you have?" He turned down every pitch that didn't have orders in hand. What a novel idea? Sales of products not pitching of ideas. Isn't that what bankers are supposed to look for?

We need to get back to both governmental and personal fiscal responsibility. The President has to understand that it is not the duty of the CEOs of the banks to fund the needs of society. The duty of the banking CEOs is a fiduciary responsibility to their stockholders to gather assets and use those assets to make profitable loans and investments. Their duty is to maximize profits for the shareholders.

The business of America is business and the goal of a business is to make a profit. Any idea that will make a profit should be funded; the rest need to become case studies on how not to run a business.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

A closed-end energy play

I still have some room in my VMSLO fund and after screening on BarChart for stocks hitting new highs that trade below 100K per day came up with Energy Income & Growth Fund -- FEN. Not all my plays are for price appreciation only. Sometimes you need to look at total return. This stock has doubled in price this year and still pays a 7.50% dividend. Energy is where it's at.

The fund is a closed-end fund which invests in Master Limited Partnerships of energy related companies. Some of what you are paying for is expertise in this area.

On a technical side BarChart show this stock has had price appreciation in 15 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. It has had a 17.25% price appreciation in the last 65 days and almost doubled in price this year. There are buy signals on 13 of BarChart's 13 technical indicators for a 100% buy rating.

Over on Motley Fool CAPS members think the fund will beat the S&P 500 by a vote of 48 to 8 with the All Stars in agreement 13 to 1.

Recommendation: I'm adding Energy Income & Growth -- FEN to my Marketocracy portfolio VMSLO around 23.80 with a stop loss no lower than 22.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions in FEN at time of publication

Monday, December 14, 2009

Cooing up with Presto

I needed a stock for my more speculative Financial Tides/BarChart model portfolio VMSLO on Marketocracy so I used BarChart to screen for stocks hitting the most new highs trading under 100K shares per day. After doing some screening National Presto Industries -- NPK came up as my pick.

National Presto Industries manufactures and distributes small electrical appliances and housewares, including comfort appliances, pressure cookers and canners, private label and premium sales products. Electrical appliances and housewares sold by the company include pressure cookers and canners; the Presto Control Master heat control single thermostatic control line of fry pans in several sizes, griddles and combination griddle/warmers and multi-purpose cookers; deep fryers of various sizes; can openers, slicer/shredders; electric heaters; corn poppers. I don't know about you but over the years I've acquired several of their gadgets.

On BarChart NPK has had price appreciation in 14 of the last 20 trading sessions and more recently 5 of the last 5. It has enjoyed a 30.58% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 13 of 13 buy signals for a 100% buy rating.

Only one Wall Street brokerage firm has a recommendation on the stock and they have a strong buy recommendation. They estimate a 11.3% increase in sales and a 6.4% increase in EPS. By the way 2 other analysts have raised their EPS estimates in the last 30 days.

Both Wall Street Survivor and Motley Fool's members agree with my research. On Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has a Survivor rating of 5/5, a fundamental rating of 5.5, a technical rating of of 4/5 for an overall rating of 85%. Motley Fool members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 215 to 6 with the All Stars in agreement 81 to 3.

The stock meets my criteria:
  • Hitting new highs better than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following it -- no trash talking
  • Confirmation of the BarChart ratings on other sites.

Recommendation: I'm adding National Presto Industries -- NPK to my Financial Tides/BarChart model portfolio VMSLO around 98.37 with a protective stop loss no lower than 92.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no positions in NPK at the time of publication.

TARP confuses me

I've tried to follow this TARP fiasco but I get so confused. For a while I thought I must be the dumbest air head in the country till I started to get emails from other people who said they were just as confused as I was. I'm trying to learn something from this mess but when I try to make a list I get writer's block.

Back in my internal auditing days I used to analyze a department by asking:
  • What is the mission of the department?
  • If the department didn't exist how would that hurt the company?
  • What are the measurements in place to evaluate the department's effectiveness?
  • Does the department have the tools and resources to complete their mission?
  • Are the benchmarks effective in evaluating the department?
  • If the department is not completing it's mission how do we fix that?
  • How much will the fix cost?
  • Will it cost more to fix it than the benefit the company will receive?
  • How can we tell if the plan to fix it was wrong or the plan was just poorly executed?
  • Should personnel changes be made?

Have we answered or even asked these basic questions for TARP?

When this whole mess came about our President promised 2 things: First, this was not a bailout. It was an investment by the taxpayers because the financial institutions would transfer an equity ownership to the taxpayers, pay interest and fees and eventually we would sell the assets at a profit. This was not corporate welfare that would never be paid back. Now he says it will not cost as much as he thought. What happened to the profit he talked about?

The second thing this administration promised was transparency. I don't know about you but to me transparency means everything out in the open, an honest accounting and explanation that the general public would understand.

The legislative branch and the SEC and who knows who else is investigating the banks but who is investigating them?

My questions before TARP were:

  • Why didn't the external auditors value the assets properly?
  • Why didn't the SEC publish warning flags?
  • How did all the rating agencies like Moody's Standard & Poor's and Fitch miss the credit problems?
  • How could all the analysts at the Wall Street brokerage firms fail to see the warning signs?
  • Why didn't the FDIC have these institutions on a Credit Watch list?
  • When the toxic assets were packaged as investment grade was there a conspiracy to defraud the public - was it salesmanship puffing or outright fraud?
  • Were the laws and regulations inadequate to protect us or can it be blamed on lack of enforcement?

None of these questions have been answered!

My questions on TARP are:

  • How much money was really needed?
  • Who made the decisions and what data were they using?
  • How was the money used?
  • Everyone says loans to the public were not made so what was the money used for?
  • Citi wants to pay back the money. Since they haven't made a profit in years and they aren't making loans to generate interest income where are they getting the money to pay back the program? Did they even need the money in the first place?

TARP should be a case study in business schools for years to come on how not to regulate an economy. TARP should have it's letters rearranged to TRAP.

There are lessons to be learned but the Administration is not asking for the accountability of the funds so I'm not sure if we will ever learn anything from this recession.

Pollsters tell us investor confidence is up but I'm still not sure who is adequately protecting me from "the beasties and ghoulies and things that go bump in the night" in the financial world? My confidence isn't up how about yours'??

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Market creeps upward

Once on a week on Financial Tides I like to step back and block out all the hype that I read on the Internet and hear on the TV and decide for myself the state of the market and how I will invest during the coming week. I use technical factors that I mine from BarChart and use the same approach every week so I can have a consistent view of the market.

First I see what the Value Line Index did. I like the Value Line Index because it uses 1700 stocks making it much broader than the S&P 500 or the narrow Dow 30. Short term improvement this week.
  • Index closed at 2184.48 -- up for the week by .30% and has had a 8.93% price appreciation for the last 65 days
  • 9 of Barchart's 13 technical indicators signal buy for a 64% overall buy rating
  • Short term rating 80%
  • Mid term rating 75%
  • Long term rating 67%
  • Trend Spotter (TM) is still a sell but weakening
  • The Index is almost back to its high for the year of 2239.69 made on 10/19

BarChart market momentum -- what percentage of stocks closed above their daily moving averages for various time periods -- almost 6000 stocks covered -- The majority of the stocks closed above their DMA for all 3 time periods reviewed.

  • 20DMA -- 62.83% closed above
  • 50DMA -- 61.42% closed above
  • 100DMA -- 69.34% closed above

The ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, under 1.0 bearish -- Ratios for all 3 time periods show a positive market movement.

  • 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 857/465 = 1.84
  • 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 433/197 = 2.20
  • 100 day new high.new low ratio -- 385/123 = 3.13

Summary: Analysis of all 3 indicators I use show a market that although almost flat for the current week is showing improvement and is about to break back through it's previous high for the year. I will trim stocks that do not maintain a closing above their 50 DMA and not be afraid to replace them this week. I'll stay fully invested.

Wall Street Survivor results: The 8 Top Stock columnist that give individual stock recommendations maintain model portfolios of those recommendation on Wall Street Survivor for a little friendly competition. The S&P was up .06% for the month and 5 of our 8 contributors have beaten that return. First place goes to Tobin Smith with a return of 3.97% and I came in third with a 3.19% return for the month.

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in the stocks in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Friday, December 11, 2009

Put some FUN in your portfolio

On Financial Tides every once in a while we see a stock that is hitting new highs like crazy for no apparent reason. Sometimes that movement precedes a big press announcement; sometimes it precedes an acquisition announcement. You can never tell. This week when screening for stocks hitting new highs consistently on BarChart Cedar Fair LP -- FUN came up on the radar. FUN has had price appreciation on 14 of the last 20 trading sessions. The stock was having a difficult time earlier in the year and seemed to bottom out on 11/12 at 6.03 and has steadily move up by all most 50% since then. Something is going on here.

Cedar Fair, L.P. and its affiliated companies own and operate five amusement parks: Cedar Point, Knott's Berry Farm, Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom, Valleyfair, and Worlds of Fun/Oceans of Fun. The parks are family-oriented, with recreational facilities for people of all ages, and provide clean and attractive environments with exciting rides and entertainment. The company also owns and operates four hotel facilities. Cedar Point also owns and operates the Cedar Point Marina, one of the largest full-service marinas on the Great Lakes.

Although there is not a major Wall Street brokerage following the stock has 1 buy and 3 hold recommendations with no sells or under performs. Analysts expect the stock to have an increase in both sales and EPS and be profitable in the coming year. Paul Price a contributor to Seeking Alpha has done several recent articles on the stock and I'm linking his article --
Cedar Fair : Growth Opportunities in Amusements for your review.

Over on Wall Street Survivor the Survivor Sentiment is 5/5 with a fundamental rating of 4/5. On Motley Fool the CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market 314 to 72 with the All Stars agreeing 76/23. Of the Wall Street columnist only Cramer disagrees but he hasn't said anything about the stock since all the way back in January.

Recommendation: Although FUN seems to have support based on its fundamentals and is expected to make a profit, I'm adding this stock to my speculative Marketocracy VMSLO portfolio solely on its technical price movement alone. Something is going to happen and I'm hoping for another price kick upward. Buy around 9 but have a protective stop loss around 8 in case nothing happens. Revisit that stop loss on a weekly basis and move it up to protect your gains.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment here or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in this stock at the time of publication

Mutual fund tax trap

This is not an article to tell you to sell all your mutual funds to avoid this tax trap. This is just a cautionary warning about how mutual fund dividends are taxed so you can have a plan before it's too late. Back when I prepared tax returns I always had clients that questioned why they had to pay taxes on the mutual fund dividends they reinvested when they had only owned the fund for just a few days and never received a check in the mail.

Mutual funds, investment companies and some holding companies all fall under a special IRS tax provision. If they do things properly, they are not taxed like a corporation but pass through their tax liabilities like a partnership. If at least once a year they pay out 90% all the net interest, dividend and trading profits they made during the past year they will not have to pay income taxes on those profits but instead pass through that liability to the owners of their shares.

It doesn't matter if you only owned the shares for just a few days, if you are the owner on the day they payout that dividend they pass through to you the tax liability. You will receive a statement telling you how much of the dividend is for interest, net short term and long term capital gains. If the fund you own hold bonds or real estate you may also be informed how much of the dividend is for tax exempt interest, taxable interest or even return of principal.

I know you usually buy a mutual fund to make your life simpler but at tax time it can make your life complicated. Do some planning now. Find out when the funds you own pays out that dividend and see how you will be taxed. After you receive the dividend there is not much you can do to avoid the tax liability.

I know some people who have owned a fund for the last 20 years and never sold it because it was a long term investment. Someone else prepares their tax returns and they never noticed that they paid taxes on these dividends year after year. They were under the false impression that they never paid taxes on their mutual fund gains until they sold them.

Before you start screaming that the tax code is unfair, I'll drop some more bombs on you. Most mutual funds turn their portfolios over several times a year. You may think you have a long term investment that will get long term capital gains treatments but look closely and you'll find out that most of the dividend was short term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income at your incremental tax rate.

Now the big bomb. They only get to pass through the net gains. If they had a net loss for the year, that net loss is carried forward not passed through to you.

In investing it's not how much you make that counts, it's how much to keep. How much do you get to keep after fees, taxes and inflation?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Small Israeli stocks are hot

On Financial Tides I have 2 model portfolios -- VMNHI which consists of larger companies with high volume and lots of following and VMSLO -- which holds thinly traded or low priced stocks that are very volatile and speculative. I had some room for a highly speculative stock so I used BarChart to find a stock that was speculative but hitting new highs on a regular basis. Nova Measuring Instruments -- NVMI --came up on my screening.

NOVA MEASURING -- NVMI --develops, produces and markets monitoring and measurement systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. The company has pioneered the Integrated Metrology concept and is now expanding its activities by developing Integrated Monitoring and Process Control systems for CMP, CVD, Photolithography and Etch manufacturing processes. The company's systems for CMP process control, delivering systems for CMP process control, delivering have measured more wafers than all other metrology companies combined.

This is a purely technical play but BarChart shows it has had price appreciation in 8 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 4 for the last 5. There has been a 136.67% price increase in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have buy indications on 12 of 13 indicators. In the last 100 days this stock has advanced to new highs 29 times and has never traded below its 50 day moving average in the last 6 months. A favorable and consistent price appreciation.

You will not find a lot of following out there but I'll refer you to 2 guys here on Seeking Alpha that have done extensive research and seem to agree that here is a hidden winner. Shlomi Cohen -- Niche Player Nove Rides Chip Production Recovery and The Inflection Point --
Nova Measuring Pullback Seems Overdue. Both articles give a great review of what the company does and why they think it will continue to do it well. My reading on the company is strictly in analyzing the price performance of the stock.

Recommendation: I've added this stock to my Marketrocracy VMSLO model portfolio around 4.90 with a suggested stop loss no lower than 3.5. This is a short term recommendation and long term investors might look for a pull back to accumulate more shares if they feel the long term prospect for this company warrant that.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions at the time of publication

E-Commerce is hot

On Financial Tides we look for stocks that should give you an immediate return and GSI Commerce fits the bill. It came up on my BarChart screening for stocks that continue to hit new highs. GSIC has had 13 price advances in the last 20 trading sessions and is 3 for 5 recently. It has enjoyed a 39.25% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators are 12 out of 13 buys for an over all buy rating of 96%.

The company develops and operates e-commerce sporting goods businesses for specialty retailers, general merchandisers, Internet companies, and media companies under exclusive long-term agreements. The company enables its partners to capitalize on their existing assets to exploit the online opportunities in the sporting goods industry. The company's scalable business model takes advantage of its proprietary technology and product database, customer service capabilities, relationships with vendors,and centralized inventory management.

Wall Street like them too. Of the 21 analysts following the firm 17 have buys -- 4 holds and no under perform or sell signals from any of them. They predict a 29.5% increase in sales and 263.6% increase in the bottom line -- very optimistic!

Other sites like them too. Walls Street Survivor has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5/5, fundamental of 5/5 and a technical rating of 5/5 -- you don't see that very often. Over on Motely Fool CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market by a vote of 128 to 33 with the All Stars in agreement 36 to 9. The Wall Street columnist Fool follows like it 17 to 1. The lone under perform was Jim Cramer. I don't often defend Cramer, not even against Jon Stewart but to be fair his sell signal was 3/22/2007 and he would probably change his mind if he revisited it.

This stock crosses my hurdles:
  • Price appreciating in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following the stock -- no recent trash talking
  • Other sites confirm my research

Recommendation: GSI Commerce -- GSIC looks like a buy around 24.75 with a stop loss of no less than 21.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in this stock at the time of publication

Can Sprint finish the race??

On Financial Tides I try find stocks I think are the best to buy now but also report on some of the most popular issues. Sprint Nextel-- S has been on the volume leaders list recently. I'm going to look at Sprint's stats objectively:
  • Has the stock been hitting new highs recently
  • What do the technical indicators say
  • If followed by Wall Street is there trash talking
  • What is the consensus on other sites.

Sprint offers a comprehensive range of wireless and wireline communications services to consumer, business and government customers. The company is widely recognized for developing, engineering and deploying innovative technologies, including two robust wireless networks offering industry leading mobile data services; instant national and international push-to-talk capabilities; and an award-winning and global Tier 1 Internet backbone.

BarChart reveals that S has had 7 price increases in the last 20 trading sessions and is 3 for 5 most recently. There has been a 48.56% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart has this stock an overall 64% buy with the short term technical indicators giving it an 80% buy.

30 Wall Street brokerage firms follow the stock and although they estimate a 2.3 loss in revenue they feel the EPS will rise by 17.1%. Possible sign of losing market share but improved efficiencies. Of the 30 there are only 3 under perform or sells with 9 buys and 18 holds. The most recent recommendation is a buy from CitiGroup. There seems to be support on Wall Street to hold what you have and maybe even accumulate a little more. No real trash talking.

On Wall Street Survivor the Survivor Sentiment is 5/5, fundamental 4/5 and technical 3/4 - not over whelming but still positive.

Motley Fool CAPS members vote 1404 to 405 that the stock will outperform the market with the All Stars in agreement 307 to 98. The Wall Street columnist Foll follows like the stock 15 to 2.

My take is that if you have the stock there is no reason to sell at this time. Although it won't set the world on fire you might want to accumulate more as a long term investment. Trading around 4 at present short term traders should be out below 3.50 and no one should hold below 3.00.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in this stock at the time of publication

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Is Citi just a hope and a prayer?

CitiGroup - C has been one of the most actively traded stocks recently trading between 275 - 532 million shares a day. So much interest but it it all just a hope and a prayer? For the 2 people out there that don't know what Citi does it is a leading global financial services company, has some two hundred million customer accounts and does business in more than hundred countries, providing consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, and wealth management. Major brand names under Citigroup's trademark red umbrella include Citibank, CitiFinancial, Primerica, Smith Barney, and Banamex.

When I step back and really look at how Citi has performed it has gone nowhere. According to BarChart the stock has advanced only 5 times in the last 65 days and then for only a .52% gain. Flat to say the least. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 signalling sell for an overall sell rating of 88%.

With stats like that why is everyone so high on this stocks? There are 20 Wall Street analysts following this stock and 17 have a hold or buy. Only 3 recommend a sell or under perform. Wall Street Survivor has a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment rating and over on Motley Fool the CAPS members are voting 7190 to 1756 that the stock will outperform the market. Even the All Stars vote 1328 to 438 and are in agreement with the 34 Wall Street columnists Fool follows who like it 32 to 2. How do you say self fulfilling prophesy?

I'm sorry but when I invest in the stock it has to be both popular and technically sound and I don't feel that way with Citi. I'm not sure which bank will perform best and survive in this recovery but there seems to be a lot of people that think Citi is the best. I'm going to be different and pass on this one.

If you just have to invest in a bank I'd go for a financially sound regional or if you can't make up your mind try an ETF like IShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks -- IAT

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment here or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure - no positions in this stock at time of publication

I'm high on Hong Kong Highpower

I had some room in my Marketocracy VMSLO model portfolio so I went on BarChart and started hunting for stocks trading below 100K shares a day that continue to hit new highs in this down day market. I came upon Hong Kong Highpower -- HPJ. The stock has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. There has been a whopping 308.48% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have a 12 out of 13 buy signal for a 96% overall buy rating

HPJ develops, manufacturers and markets rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride and Lithium-ion batteries and related products for use in a variety of electronic devices. The majority of Hong Kong Highpower's products are distributed worldwide to markets in the United States, Europe, China, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia and Taiwan. The way all these new electronic devices everyone wants eats batteries this company has the right products line.

There is only one Wall Street analyst, Rodman & Renshaw following this stock and they just initiated coverage in August. They predict great things with a 25.7% estimate on sales increase, 146.7% profit improvement for this year and a 13.5% EPS growth next year.

On other sites coverage is also thin with Wall Street Survivor giving the stock a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment rating and a 5/5 fundamental rating. Motley Fool CAPS has not begin covering this stock.

Recommendation: I'm adding Hong Kong Highpower -- HPJ to my speculative VMSLO model portfolio. It's trading around 6.70 and a protective stop loss of not less than 5 should be in place. Remember -- this is a speculative buy. There isn't a lot of following for this stock and it is thinly traded.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Are regional airlines different?

I had a little room in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio and this weekend I had determined I would still buy into this market so I went bargain hunting in these down days. I used Barchart to find which stocks were continuing to hit new highs even while the market was sliding backwards and came up with Linhas Aereas Inteligentes ( GOL ) a Brazilian ADR that is a regional airline. Before you start screaming that I'm a total idiot to consider any airline give my thinking a try. Airlines in the rest of the world are a little different that our airlines in the US. In countries like Brazil they is not an alternate transportation choice. For much of the country there is not a proper roadway or rail choice so air travel is the only choice. This airline moves people, cargo and mail bags so they are not as passenger dependent and ticket price sensitive like in the US. Competition also isn't as keen.

The stock has hit new highs in 14 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 more recently. There has been a 63.48% price appreciation in the last 65 days and BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals for a 96% buy rating.

The 9 analysts following the stock look for a 26.2% increase in sales next year and a profit improvement of 136.8% this year. They have 4 buy, 4 hold and 1 sell recommendations. The lone sell was from Citi back in January and the stock has had good price appreciation since that date. The most current review is from Argus this August and they went from sell to buy.

On some other sites Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5/5 and a fundamental rating of 4/5. Over in Motley Fool the members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 313 to 37 with the All Stars in agreement 97 to 10. The mixed review comes from the Wall Street columnists that Fool follows with a vote of 5 to 4. The 4 who say sell did so back earlier in the year and have not revisited their signal. The stock has had pretty good price appreciation since then so I'll discount those sell recommendations.

The stock has what I'm looking for:
  • Hitting new highs in the current market at least 50% of the time
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following the stock - no current trash talking
  • The other sites do not have a major disagreement with my pick

Recommendation: I'm going to add Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio around 15.78 with a protective stop loss no lower than 12.

Disclosure: I hold no positions in this stock at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Monday, December 7, 2009

Is Corning glass transparent?

On Financial Tides I determined over the weekend I'd be a buyer this week. On BarChart I screened for the stocks hitting the most new highs and after a little more screening came up with a recommendation on Corning Inc. -- GLW. The stock has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is recently 5 for 5 with a 32.56% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals with a 100% short term rating and a 88% overall rating.

GLW creates leading-edge technologies for the fastest-growing markets of the world's economy. Corning manufactures optical fiber, cable and photonic products for the telecommunications industry; and high-performance displays and components for television and other communications-related industries. The company also uses advanced materials to manufacture products for scientific, semiconductor and environmental markets.

On Wall Street the 17 analysts who follow the stock give it 11 buy recommendations and there are no under perform or sell reports. They estimate a 30.1% increase in sales and an 18.3% improvement in EPS. That's pretty positive.

On other sites Wall Street Survivor has Mark's checklist giving it a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment rating , a 5/5 fundamental rating and a 5/5 technical rating for an over all rating of 94%

Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market 3245 to 81 with the All Stars in agreement 787 to 7 and the Wall Street columnists Fool follows at 22 to 1. The lone seller was Davenport and the stock has been up 135.14% since he recommended a sell.

This stock seems to meet my 3 criteria:
  • Making new highs better than 50% of the time
  • If followed by Wall Street brokerages - no recent sell recommendations
  • Other sites agree with my recommendation

Recommendation: I'm adding Corning Inc -- GLW-- to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 18.62 with a protective stop loss no lower than 16.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in this stock at the time of publication

Verizon on the horizon

Over the weekend I determined that I'd be a net buyer into the market this week. I had some buying power in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to find what stocks were hitting new highs most frequently. After getting the top ten and doing some additional screening I decided to add Verizon (VZ) to my portfolio. Verizon is one of the largest providers of both wired and wireless communications.

During my BarChart screenings I determined VZ had hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 the past week. There has been a 16.17% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have buy signals on 11 of the 13 indicators and the sell is a long term indicator.

There are 32 Wall Street analysts following the stock and although they estimate only a .09% increase in sales and a 1.6% increase in earnings 16 still recommend you buy the stock. The only sell recommendation was made back in January and seems too old for me to consider.

I'm starting to like the Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist which has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5/5, fundamental rating of 4/5 and a technical rating of 5/5. Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 3386 to 198 with the All Star members in agreement with a vote of 847/38. Motley Fool follows some Wall Street columnists and they like the stock 32 to 1.

I'm the first to admit that I have no crystal ball and I don't have an original thought in my head. I've just developed a method to find stocks with a positive price momentum and a discipline to manage the portfolio I own. To be added to my portfolio a stock must:
  • Hit new highs more than 50% of the time
  • If followed by Wall Street Brokerage firms not have a majority of sell recommendations out there - trash taking by brokers usually means net sells
  • Have some confirmation of my research by some of the other technical indicator sites I follow

Recommendation: Verizon Communications (VZ) meets my criteria and is being added to my Wall Street survivor portfolio around 33.15 with a protective stop loss of no lower than 30.

Disclosure: I own no positions in the stock at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Market up W/E 12/4/2009

Each week on Financial Tides I try to step back away from all the daily news and hypes and determine how the market really performed in the last week. After I look at the real state of the market I make my investing strategy for the next week. Will I be buying, selling or just sitting on the side lines? I use BarChart to find my data.

Value Line Index -- an index of 1700 of the larger exchange traded stocks -- much broader coverage than just the S&P 500 or Dow 30 -- Index had positive price appreciation for the week
  • The Index was up 3.31% for the week
  • BarChart technical indicators were 9 buys, 3 holds and 1 sell - Overall rating of 64% buy
  • Short term indicators - 80% buy
  • Mid term indicators - 75% buy
  • Long term indicators - 64% buy

BarChart market momentum - how many stocks closed above the Daily Moving Average for various time periods - approx. 6000 stocks -- better than 50% of the stocks closed above their DMA for all 3 periods

  • 20 DMA -- 66.85% above
  • 50 DMA -- 62.46% above
  • 100 DMA -- 71.78% above

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various periods -- above 1.00 positive, 1.00 neutral, below .99 negative -- ratio positive for all 3 periods

  • 20 day ratio 1537/571 = 3.01
  • 65 day ratio 728/223 = 3.26
  • 100 day ratio 664/318 = 2.09

Summary -- The market had positive weekly price appreciation, the majority of the stocks closed above their daily moving averages, the ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stock hitting new lows shows the market displayed strength to the upside

Investment Strategy -- Of course I'll trim out any stocks that can't maintain its price above their 50 DMA and I'll feel confident to make new purchases that meet my screening criteria.

Wall Street Survivor score board -- The Top Stock columnists that recommend stocks place those stocks in a model portfolio on Wall Street Survivor for a little friendly competition. Results month to date are:

  • S&P 500 MTD up .02%
  • 7 of the 8 participants beat the S&P 500
  • I'm in 1st place with a return of 3.56%

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of my Top Stock recommendations at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on FinancialTides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Friday, December 4, 2009

When the economy turns own chemicals

I had some room in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to screen for the stocks hitting new highs recently and then sorted for the ones hitting new highs the most consistently. Huntsman (HUN) came in near the top of the list after I screened for some of my other criteria. HUN is a manufacturer of differentiated and commodity chemical products for industrial and consumer applications. They are world wide so they should benefit as the world wide recession comes to a turn.

They have hit new highs in 15 of the last 20 trading sessions and 5 for 5 in the last week. There has been a 39.32% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's 13 technical indicators all have buy signals for a 100% buy recommendation.

Over on Wall Street the 5 analysts who follow the stock look for an 11% increase in sales and a whopping 112.7% increase in EPS. 4 of the analysts have strong holds and the only sell is very old and I think needs to be revisited.

I always look at other sites to see if others confirm or disagree with my screening and research. On Wall Street Survivor Mark's Check list has a Survivor Sentiment of 5 for 5 and a technical rating of 5 for 5 also. On Motley Fool CAPS the members vote that the stock will out perform the market 518 to 26 with the All Stars voting 230 to 5. Motley Fool has some favorite Wall Street columnists they follow and they say the Wall Street guys like it 4 to 2. One of the dissenters is Jim Cramer and the stock has gone up 272.20% since he gave a sell signal.

Remember my 3 main criteria hurdles:
  • The stock must hit new highs better than 50% of the time and have a technical indicator rating of more than 80%
  • Although I don't have much faith in the Wall Street analysts forecasts if they have sell ratings out there then a lot of brokers are calling clients soliciting sell - No Wall Street trash talking
  • Do other rating sites agree with me? If they don't I might have missed something.

Recommendation: I'm adding Huntsman (HUN) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio for the reasons above. It's selling around 10.50 and I think a protective stop loss of no lower than 9 is warranted.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any of my Wall Street Survivor holdings at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Invest in someone else's ability to invest

I needed a new stock for my Financial Tides/BarChart portfolio on Marketocracy so I used BarChart to screen for stocks trading under 100K shares a day that continue to hit new highs. After screening I came up with Oppenheimer Holding -- OPY. The stock has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for the last 5. There has been a 45.33% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals with one hold for an overall buy rating of 96%.

OPY is a holding company and carries on no active business. The company is engaged in the securities brokerage and trading business and offers investment advisory and other related financial services. The operating subsidiaries are engaged in a broad range of activities in the securities brokerage business, including retail securities brokerage, bond trading and investment banking-offering both corporate and public finance services, underwriting, research, market making and investment advisory and asset management services. You are investing in some one elses' ability to make money in financial services.

Other brokerages usually don't like to make recommendations or trash other brokerages in print but although there are no brokerage recommendation son the stock an analyst following the stock estimates a 16.7% growth in revenue and a 78.9% growth in EPS next year.

Over on Motley Fool CAPS the members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 118 to 7 with the All Stars agreeing 30 to 0. The 2 Wall Street columnists Motley Fool follows also agree 2 to 0.

Meets my criteria because:
  • Hitting new highs better than 50% of the time
  • No major brokerages recommending sell or trash talking
  • Confirmation by other sites that the stock will out perform the market.

Recommendation: I'm adding Oppenheimer Holding - OPY to my VMSLO Marketocracy portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in OPY at the time of publication

Want to invest in mortgages???

I needed a new stock for my Financial Tides/BarChart VMNHI portfolio that I have on Marketocracy. I screened for stocks hitting new highs trading over 100K shares a day and went through my filtering process and came up with Hatteras Financial Corp - HTS.

HTS is an externally-managed mortgage real estate investment trust formed in 2007 to invest in adjustable-rate and hybrid adjustable-rate single-family residential mortgage pass-through securities issued or guaranteed by U.S. Government agencies or U.S. Government-sponsored entities, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. Hatteras Financial Corp. is managed and advised by Atlantic Capital Advisors LLC.

You might think I'm totally nut to invest is these risky assets but they are all guaranteed by governmental agencies.

The stock has hit 15 new highs in the last 20 sessions and 5 new highs in the last 5 sessions. There has been a 15.84% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators signal 11 buys and 2 holds for an 88% overall buy rating.

Right now none of the major brokerage firms are turning out research reports but their not trashing it either. The stock has had increasing revenue, EPS and dividend increases since it was formed and with the governmental agency backing why would that change?

Over on Motley Fool CAPS the members vote that it will out perform the market 114 to 19 with the All Stars voting 36 to 7. The Wall Street columnists following the stock have positive recommendations6 to 1. The lone dissenter is Jim Cramer and the stock has appreciated 11.16% since he gave a sell signal.

The stock passes my screening process:
  • HTS is hitting new highs better than 50% of the time
  • No major brokerages are trashing the stock
  • Other rating sites confirm my analysis

Recommendation: You may think I'm crazy for adding an adjustable rate mortgage holding company to my portfolio but I'll go with the gov't agency backing. Adding to VMNHI around 30.90 with a tight stop loss at no lower than 29.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in HTS at time of publication

High flyer in Mexico

I've got some room in my Top Stock Wall Street Survivor portfolio so I used BarChart to screen for the stocks trading over 100K shares per day and sort for frequency. After using my normal filtering process I ended up with Groupo Aeroportuario (ASR). The company has concessions to manage and operate airports in such hot southeastern airports of Mexico like Cancun and Cozumel. Very hot tourist areas with major air traffic from the US and Europe.

ASR has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and in 4 for the most recent 5 days. There has been a 34.17% price appreciation in the last 65 days. It's hitting on all cylinders with BarChart's technical indicators giving 13 out of 13 signals to buy for a 100% buy rating.

Wall Street seems to confirm the price momentum with the analysts consensus that sales will increase 14.3% and EPS by 34.6% in the coming year. The 7 analyst give 4 buy, 2 hold and 1 sell recommendations. The sell rating is so old I can even find it listed but it's still in the data feed.

On other sites Mark's checklist on Wall Street Survivor rates the stock with a Survivor Sentiment rating 5/5 and a fundamental rating of 4/5. Motley Fool CAPS members confirm with a vote that the stock will outperform the market 240 to 10 and the All Stars vote of 94 to 2. The Wall Street columnists Motley Fool follows are split 1 to 1.

This stock passes my screening process:
  • The stock is hitting new highs and has a BarChart buy rating of at least 80%
  • If the stock has Wall Street following none of the major brokerage firms have negative reports with sell signals
  • Other stock rating sites agree with my first 2 tests

Recommendation: I'm adding Groupo Aeroportuario (ASR) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio around 54 and would sell if it failed to trade above 45.

By the way the person who thought the stock will under perform was Jim Cramer and the stock has had a 47.26% price increase since he gave his sell signal. I mentor the Senior Economics class at Charlotte Latin School in a stock market competition with other schools across the US. Every semester I give them the same homework assignment. Watch Mad Money and/or Fast Money with your parents and discuss if this is valuable financial information or just TV entertainment. This week they will be making their oral presentations and giving me their opinions and I'd like to hear yours'.

Disclosure: I hold no positions in Grupo Aeroportuario (ASR) at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Cardinal HealthCare's future looks rosey

I'm adding Cardinal Healthcare -- CAH -- to my Financial Tides Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio. CAH has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 4 for 5 recently. There has been a 32.64% price appreciation in the last 65 days and BarChart's technical indicators have 11 out of 13 buy signals for an overall 80% buy rating.

CAH is one of the leading providers of products and services to health care providers and manufacturers to help them improve the efficiency and quality of health care. These services and products include Pharmaceutical Distribution and Provider Services, Medical-Surgical Products and Services, Pharmaceutical Technologies and Services and Automation and Information Services.

18 Wall Street analysts follow the stock and there are 8 buy recommendations with no under performance or sell recommendations. They estimate a 3.4% sales growth and an 8.9% EPS growth. Good solid estimates.

Over on Motley Fool CAPS their members vote 402 to 37 that the stock will out perform the market and the All Stars agree with a vote of 134 to 8. The Wall Street columnists that Motley Fool follows think it will also out perform the market with a vote of 13 to 0. Good confirmations.

This stock:
  • Is hitting new high better than 50% of the time and a BarChart buy rating of 80% or better
  • Has a positive Wall Street following with no trash talk
  • Has a positive vote from CAPS members and Wall Street columnist

Recommendation: I'm adding to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 33 with a protective stop loss no lower than 30.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions in CAH at time of publication

Health Care products for the masses

On Financial Tides I always try to find stocks that are hitting new highs. Johnson and Johnson -- JNJ is just such a stock. JNJ has hit 15 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 3 for 5 recently. There has been a consistent 9.86% price appreciation in the last 65 days. On BarChart the technical indicators for a buy signal are 12 for 13 with just 1 hold for a 96% buy rating.

JNJ is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Professional. As I say health care products for the masses.

Wall Street analysts like this stock too. The 21 analysts who follow the stock have 13 buy recommendations with the rest hold. No sell recommendations from any of them. They expect a 4.7% increase in sales and a 7.6% increase in earnings per share.

Other sites confirm my buy with the Motley Fool CAPS members giving the stock an out perform the market vote of 12,080 to 417 and the All Stars 3021 to 61. The Motley Fool Wall Street consensus is 30 to 1.

This stock has what I look for and is being added to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio:
  • Hitting new highs better than 50% of the time and a BarChart technical rating above 80%
  • If it has a Wall Street following no major trash talking
  • Confirmation from other sites that it has a following

Recommendation: I'm adding Johnson & Johnson -- JNJ -- to my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 63.75 with a stop loss no lower than 61.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in JNJ at time of publication

The science of fat

Time to do a little trimming in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio. I never sell a stock because I found a better stock, but I do sell a stock from my portfolio if it fails to keep trading above its 50 day moving average. This week both Korea Electric Power (KEP) and the Limited Brands (LTD) began trading below their 50 DMA so they were trimmed.

On BarChart I screened for stocks trading above 100K shares a day that were hitting the most new highs and after eliminating stocks trading below $5 and those that scored under 80% buy on BarChart's technical indicators came up with a stock I never heard of -- Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX). As I researched it I found that it was involved with finding therapies that are cell based. Instead of using embryonic cells they use fat cells. We all have plenty of that and fat cell research might not run into the ethical concerns that other stem cell research is receiving.

The stock has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and hit new highs in 4 of the last 5 sessions. Price appreciation in the last 65 days has been 100% and BarChart's technical indicators are hitting 13 out of 13 buy signals for a 100% buy rating.

On Wall Street the 5 analyst following the stock have 4 buy recommendations and the only under perform rating hasn't changed since January 2008. The analysts consensus for sales growth is 17.7% with EPS growth of 54.5% expected next year.

I always try to see what some of the other sites think about a stock in case I missed some negative signals. On Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has a Survivor Sentiment rating of 5 of 5, a fundamental rating of 5 of 5 and a technical rating of 5 of 5. The Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market 132 to 20 with the All Stars giving it a 34 to 9 vote. The Wall Street guys Motley Fool follows vote 4 to 0.

This stock passes the 3 tests I use:
  • The stock is hitting new highs better than 50% of the time and has a BarChart technical indicator rating of better than 80%
  • If Wall Street brokerages are foll0wing the stock they are not trashing it. Why would I buy something if brokerage firms are publishing negative reports and having their brokers call client soliciting sells -- I don't spit in the wind
  • I try to get confirmation from other rating sites that the stock has better than a 50/50 chance to beat the market.

I'm adding Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio because it meet my 3 major criteria. If I can't find a stock that meets my criteria, then I don't buy anything that day.

Disclosure: No positions in CYTX at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Buy some medical instruments - TECH

A stock to be noticed by Financial Tides for hitting 14 of 20 new highs is Techne Corp -- TECH. It also has buy signal on 12 of 13 of BarChart's technical indicators for an overall buy rating of 96%. Price appreciation has been a solid 15.12% for the last 65 days.

TECHNE Corporation and its subsidiaries engage in the development, manufacture, and sale of biotechnology products, and hematology calibrators and controls primarily in the United States and Europe. Health care need the proper tools.

Wall Street analysts are following it and the 4 analysts have 3 strong buys to 1 hold with an 8.3% sales growth and an 8.8% EPS growth expectation.

Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think TECH will outperform the market 163 to 7 with the All Stars voting 54 to 0. Even Motley Fools Wall Street guy have it 2 to 0.

The stock has what I look for:
  • Hitting new high more than 50% of the time
  • A Wall Street following with no trash talk
  • Other sites confirming what I've found.

Recommendation: I'm adding Techne Corp - TECH - to my Marketocracy VMSLO portfolio around 68 with a protective stop loss of no less than 64.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who write about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below of email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in TECH at the time of publication

A specialty in nichechemicals

On Financial Tides we try to find you companies hitting new highs all the time. KMG Chemicals -- KMBG has hit 15 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 4 of the recently 5. KMGB has had a 98.35% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals with one hold for an overall buy rating of 96%

Before this stock can up on my BarChart screeer for new high frequency I didn't even know what nichechemicals was. KMGB manufactures, markets and distributes specialty, nichechemicals. The company manufactures, markets and distributes three wood preserving chemicals, pentachlorophenol, creosote and sodium pentachlorophenate, to industrial customers engaged in the wood preserving business. The company's customers use these preservatives to treat wood and supply the treated wood products to end-users in a variety of industries, principally the railroad, utility and construction industries.

As always I look to see what Wall Street thinks about the stock - I don't want to purchase a stock that's being trashed. Only one analyst follows this stock David Yuschak and he rates it a strong buy. He looks for an 8% increase in sales and a 16.7% increase in EPS.

Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market by a 205 to 19 vote with the All Stars voting 43 to 7. Their Wall Street players vote 2 to 0.

Points I look for that this stock meets:
  • Hitting new high more than 50% of recent trading sessions
  • No Wall Street firms trashing it
  • Good consensus on other sites

Recommendation: I'm buying KMGB - KMG Chemicals for my Marketocracy VMNHI portfolio around 18 with a protective stop loss no lower than 15.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions in KMGB at time of publications

This may be the safest bank

Retail has always been fascinating to me. Whenever I see a new store open I always go in and look at the inventory and try to decide if they will make it. I'm more often wrong than I am right but I keep doing it any way.

Back in business school we had guest speakers and Pop Essermann who owned the local department store was my favorite. He played the same lame joke on each class of freshmen. He'd say," When things get rough I always sell the socks that cost me a dollar for 75 cents." And always a first year accounting major would ask, " But aren't you losing 25 cents a pair?" Pops always answered," Yes, but I make it up on volume."

Jos. A Banks (JOSB) almost seems to be following Pop's business plan. This morning they advertised that if you buy a sports coat at regular price they will throw in 2 pairs of pants and 2 sports shirts for free. Are they losing money on every sale but making it up in volume like Pops?

Most companies make the same fatal mistake; when things get rough they cut back on advertising to save cash flow. JOSB seems to have done just the opposite. I can't turn on CNBC for 30 minutes without seeing one of their adds. Has that strategy got them noticed?

If you had purchased JOSB last year you would have seen a 93.21% price appreciation vs. the S&P 500 return of 26.77%. Clearly their strategy has helped them get noticed and beat the market. But what about the bottom line?

Since 2004 sales have grown from 186.5M to 502.5 M, profit margins from 5.53% to 8.75% and EPS from .95 per share to 3.46 per share.

It looks like Pops was right, don't worry if you're selling at a loss -- make it up on volume.

The stock has also been noticed by the Motley Fool CAPS members who think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 355 to 59 and the All Stars voted 95 to 20. The Wall Street consensus was 6 to 1

Now if I could just buy 5 shares for the price of 1 that would be a bargain I couldn't pass up.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in JOSB

Model Portfolio Monthly Scorecard November

On Financial Tides we give you step by step instructions on how to pick stocks and manage your portfolio for returns that beat the pros. All our recommendations will be placed in 1 of 2 Marketocracy portfolios so you can see the results for yourself. November has ended and here are the results:

VMNHI -- This portfolio contains stocks hitting new highs that are trading more than 100K shares a day at the time of purchase.

Return since inception -- 57.59%
S&P return comparison -- .05% loss
VMNHI beats market -- 57.64%

VMNHI beat the market S&P 500 by an annualized rate of 10.06%

VMSLO -- This portfolio contains stocks hitting new highs that are trading less than 100K shares a day at time of purchase. This is the same portfolio that won the MSN/Investor Place Strategy Lab Open.

Return since inception -- 59.46%
S&P return comparison -- 16.85% loss
VMSLO beats the market -- 76.31%

VMSLO beat the market S&P 500 by an annualized rate of 38.51%

Links to these Marketocracy portfolios:

VMNHI

VMSLO

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in the stock recommended.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Insure your portfolio

This week I've decided to add American National Insurance (ANAT) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio. ANAT is a multi-line insurance carrier having life, health, annuities, property and causality insurance plus mutual funds in its bag of products.

It came into my view when I used BarChart to screen for stocks hitting new highs and trading over 100K share per day. ANAT hit 16 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 3 for the last 5 days. It has had a 36% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart has 13 technical indicators and this stock has buy signals on all 13 for a 100% buy rating.

The stock doesn't have a Wall Street following but there also isn't any bad news on the Internet.

I always try to see how it is rated on other sites and on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has a 5 of 5 Survivor Sentiment and a 5 for 5 technical rating. Over on Motley Fool CAPS members feel the stock will out perform the market 28 to 7 with the All Stars voting 10 to 2.

This stock has what I look for:
  • It's hitting new highs all the time
  • There aren't any brokerage analysts trashing it
  • Other rating sites are favorably rating the stock

Recommendation: I'm adding American National Insurance (ANAT) to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at around 108 and would hold it until it failed to trade above its 50 day moving average.

I also deleted Korea Electric Power (KEP) and Limited Brands (LTD) from the portfolio for failing to trade above their 50 DMA.

This was the last trading day of the month and 4 of our 8 Wall Street Survivor participants beat the market return of 5.51%. Anthony Mirhaydan beat us all with a 21.40% return and I came in second with a November return of 8.33%

Disclosure: I do not hold positions is any of the stocks in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is and investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Targeting the youth market

Financial Tides is adding Aloy Inc - ALOY to its VMNHI Marketocracy portfolio as a highly speculative issue. ALOY is a multi-channel media company and direct marketer providing community, content and commerce to Generation Y, the approximately 58 million boys and girls between the ages of 10 and 24.

The stock came up on my BarChart screener of stocks hitting new highs with 15 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 4 for 5 recently. The stock has had a 27% price appreciation in the last 65 days.

This issue is not followed regularly by Wall Street and is in our list only for technical reasons. The BarChart technical indicators have 13 out of 13 buy signals for a 100% buy.

The only analyst that follows the stock looks for a 24.9% sales growth next year.

On other site Motley Fool CAPS members rate the stock 35 to 7 to out perform the market but the All Star members are more positive with a 9 to 1 rating.

Recommendation : adding ALOY to VMNHI portfolio around 8 with a protective stop loss not lower that 6.50. This is a highly speculative recommendation and should have protective stop losses if you add it to your portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure : I do not hold a position in ALOY at the time of publication

There's money in paper

Financial Tides is adding Kimberly Clark - KMB - to the VMNHI portfolio. KMB is one of the leading consumer products companies. Its global tissue, personal care and health care brands include Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex, Depend, Kleenex, Scott, Kimberly-Clark, Safeskin, Tecnol, Kimwipes and Wypall. Other brands well known outside the U.S. include Andrex, Scottex, Page, Popee and Kimbies. Kimberly-Clark also is a major producer of premium business, correspondence and technical papers.

The stock came up on my BarChart screener because it has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and is 4 for 5 recently. There has been a 15% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical indicators rate 12 of 13 buys with 1 hold for a 96% buy rating.

There are 14 analyst following this stock and 5 give it a buy. Consensus for sales growth is 5.9% and EPS growth of 13.1% is expected.

I always look for other votes of confidence and over on Motely Fool CAPS the members vote 633 to 44 that the stock will out perform the market. The All Star members rate it 216 to 5 and the Wall Street rating is 16 to 0.

This stock has what I look for:
  • Hitting new highs
  • Positive Wall Street press
  • Confirmation from other rating sites.

Recommendation - Adding KMB to VMNHI around 65.50 with a protective stop loss no lower than 62.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold a position in KMB at time of publication

Model Portfolio deletions

Follow these portfolios on Financial Tides.

The following stocks have been deleted from my model Marketocracy portfolios:

From VMNHI - This portfolio contains stocks hitting new highs trading more than 100K shares a day

CPBY - Chinese Information Security Tech - failure to maintain positive price momentum

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co - failure to maintain positive price momentum

From VMSLO - This portfolio is the same as the one that won the Strategy Lab Open and contains stock hitting new highs but are trading less than 100K shares a day

MYN - Blackrock Muniyield - failure to maintain a positive price momentum

Disclosure: I do not hold position in these stocks at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email to FinancialTides@gmail.com