Friday, June 18, 2010

Meaning from data

On Financial Tides I bring you stocks that are worth considering for your portfolio. I'm taking a video course from Professor Michael Starbird of the University of Texas at Austin called Meaning from Data: Statistics made clear. The first thing he emphasises is that raw data is meaningless and has no value until it is properly analyzed. That is what this company does.

Teradata Corporation (TDC) is the world's largest company focused on raising intelligence through data warehousing and enterprise analytics. Teradata is located in more than forty countries. Teradata is a trademark or registered trademark of Teradata Corporation in the United States and other countries. Teradata Corporation employs 5,300 worldwide.

All 13 of Barchart's technical indicators are signaling a buy and the stock hit 5 new highs in the last 5 trading sessions. The stock enjoyed a 6.63% price increase in the past month. The stock trades around 33.63 with a 50 day moving average of 30.92.

Investor sentiment as measured on Motley Fool is strong with CAPS members voting 270 to 17 that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars have a similar vote of 124 to 5.

Wall Street brokerages like this stock with 7 buy and 2 hold reports published. They feel sales will increase 9.40% this year and 8.10% next year. I like their double digit earrings forecasts of increases in EPS of 12.80% this year, 15.00% next year and a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 12.50%,

Last year the total return to stockholders was 73.86%.

The stock should be considered because:
  • It has had recent price appreciation and a 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Strong investor sentiment
  • Wall Street buy recommendations based on increases in sales and double digit increases in EPS.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides,Barchart Portfolio Blogs, Seeking Alpha, Marketocracy and MSN Top Stocks. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Is your portfolio 4G ready?

On Financial Tides I bring you stocks that are worth considering for your portfolio. I've written about this stock before but it's recent price action shows it deserves to be revisited.

Quanta ( PWR ) is a leading provider of specialty electrical contracting and maintenance services primarily related to electric and telecommunications infrastructure in North America. In addition, the Company provides electrical contracting services to the commercial and industrial markets and installs transportation control and lighting systems. Some of Quantas services include the installation, repair and maintenance of electric power transmission and distribution lines and telecommunication and cable television lines, the construction of electric substations, and the erection of cellular telephone.

Double digit sales growth is almost guaranteed as companies strive to meet the new reliability and renewable energy mandates. Congress has given some investment incentives for new infrastructure that is too good to pass up.

Two of their biggest clients, Verizon and AT&T, are in the middle of major upgrades to their networks and PWR will perform most of that work.

The stock hit 5 new highs in the last 5 trading sessions and had a 6.71% price appreciation last month. The stock is trading above it's 20, 50 & 100 day moving averages and has earned a 100% Barchart technical buy signal. The stock trades around 22.94 with a 50 day moving average of 22.66.

Investor sentiment is very high on this stock. On Motley Fool the CAPS members voted that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 539 to 11 and the more experienced All Stars have a similar vote of 161 to 3. Fool notes that of the last 22 articles columnists have written 21 have been positive.

The Wall Street brokerage analysts are very high on this stock with 14 buy and 4 hold recommendations published. Double digit sales increases of 20.40% this year and 12.60% next year are predicted. Earnings forecasts are even better with and increases of 34.30% this year and 29.80% next year. Long term investors will appreciate a forecast of a 12.18% 5 year compounded annual EPS growth rate.

The stock meets my criteria:
  • Recent price appreciation and new highs in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal on all 13 of the 13 technical indicators
  • High investor sentiment
  • Positive articles by the financial press
  • Wall Street brokerages recommending this stock to their clients based on double digit forecasts of sales and earnings increases

This stock has something for both short and long term investors.



Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides,Barchart Portfolio Blogs, Seeking Alpha, Marketocracy and MSN Top Stocks. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Buffett won't own an airline-- How about you?

US Airways Group, Inc., ( LCC ) through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates approximately 3,000 flights daily to 190 communities in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 349 mainline jets supported by its regional airline subsidiaries and affiliates operating as US Airways Express, which had approximately 236 regional jets and 60 turboprops. US Airways Group operates a hub-and-spoke network with hubs in Charlotte, Philadelphia, and Phoenix; and a focus city at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. ( Press release)

The airline is expanding into both Europe, South America and Asia. That makes this stock a risky business but with taking risks sometimes comes rewards. Let's look at the pros and cons and see if you think this stock belongs in your portfolio.

The stock had recent upward price momentum with 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions including 5 new highs in the last 5 sessions. Price appreciation has been 48.38% in the last month earning the stock a Barchart 96% technical buy score with 12 of 13 indicators signaling a buy. The stock trades around 10.64 with a 50 day moving average of 7.68.

Overall investor sentiment as measured on Motley Fool is mixed but still slightly positive with CAPS members voting that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 436 to 340 with the more experienced All Stars equally split 125 to 84. Fool does note that of the financial columnists they follow the articles have been positive 9 to 1.

Wall Street is high on the stock with 4 buy and 3 hold reports published based on an estimated increase in sales of 13.20% this year and 4.60% next year. EPS growth is expected to be 153.60% this year, plus 35.30% next year. Long range the 5 year compounded EPS growth rate is only expected to be 3.00%.

I note that even Value Line is reporting that this is a timely stock and looks for increases sales , earnings and price.

The pros are:
  • Recent upward price momentum with consistent new highs better than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • Positive though split investor sentiment
  • Wall Street recommendations based on estimates of increases in sales and earnings

The cons are:

  • Oil prices can always tank profits
  • Airlines are recently having some labor strikes
  • Iceland's volcanoes can shut down European travel in an instant

This is a highly risky short term price momentum play and not a long range appreciation stock. Note the 5 year compounded EPS growth of only 3%. Place moving stop losses to protect your gains if you decide to take a flyer on an airline stock.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides,Barchart Portfolio Blogs, Seeking Alpha, Marketocracy and MSN Top Stocks. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Boston Beer - SAM

Who doesn't know Sam Adams Beer? My wife and I have been to several of Morton's beer tastings sponsored by Sam Adams and I was surprised to learn that they have over 30 seasonal beers available. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. ( SAM ) produces beer, malt beverages, and cider products at Company-owned breweries and under contract. Their beer products are primarily positioned in the `Better Beer` category of the beer industry, which includes craft beers and most imports sold at premium prices.

The stock has been trading above and below 100K shares a day so it qualifies for the more speculative portfolio because of it's lower trading volume.

The stock has a 96% Barchart technical buy signal and hit 11 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions including 5 highs in the last 5 sessions. The stock has enjoyed an 18.31% price appreciation in the last month and trades around 71.95 with a 50 day moving average of 60.37.

Investor sentiment is high that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 1001 to 49 with the more experienced investors voting 263 to 6.

Wall Street likes this stock too with 2 buy and 2 hold recommendations published. They expect sales to increase 8.10% this year and 8.30% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to have increases of 30.40% this year, 9.50% next year and maintain a 5 year compounded EPS growth of 13.70%.

Boston Beer ( SAM ) is being added to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for the following reasons:
  • Barchart technical buy signal of 96% with new highs in better than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • Very high and positive investor sentiment
  • Wall Street recommendations based on increased sales and earnings

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

financial tides signature

On Financial Tides I bring you stocks that are worth considering for your portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides,
Barchart Portfolio Blogs, Seeking Alpha, Marketocracy and MSN Top Stocks. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Growth in medical waste

Stericycle, Inc. ( SRCL ) is a multi-regional integrated company employing proprietary technology to provide environmentally responsible management of regulated medical waste for the health care industry. The Company is the second largest provider of regulated medical waste management services in the United States.

One of the product lines that has helped the bottom line is recall management. Recalls will be a fact of life and many pharma companies would rather hire an outside contractor to perform this function.

The company has a very aggressive growth through acquisition program and completed 6 new acquisitions in the past year.

The stock came to my attention by hitting 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 4 in the last 5. New highs in this soft market are hard to come by. In the last month the stock has enjoyed a 12.84% price appreciation and trades around 63.79 with a 50 day moving average of 57.61. The stock has a 100% Barchart technical buy rating.

Investors have noticed this stock and over on Motley Fool the CAPS members vote that the stock will outperform the market by a vote of 245 to 15 with the more experienced All Stars agreeing 67 to 8. Of the Wall Street columnists Fool follows it is noted that all 3 articles have been positive.

Wall Street brokerage analysts are high on the stock with 7 buy and 2 hold recommendations published. They feel the sales will increase 16.20% this year and 8.10% next year. Double digit earnings per share increases of 16.70% this year, 13.58% next year and a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 16.44% deserves your attention.

This stock has great prospects:
  • 2nd largest medical waste management company
  • Aggressive growth by acquisition strategy
  • Hitting new highs in better than 50% of the recent trading sessions
  • Very high investor sentiment
  • Wall Street buy recommendations based on increases in sales and double digit EPS growth.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in SRCL at the time of publication

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Weekly Market Barometer W/E 6/11

This week really wasn't so bad. The market recovered nicely and is just about back to slightly above neutral. Let's look at our 3 yardsticks and see where we are.

Value Line Index -- contains 1700 stocks so it's broader than the narrower S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30
  • Ended the week up 2.32% but that's still down 1.34% for the month
  • Barchart still rates the Index a 62% sell with 9 sell, 3 hold and only 1 buy signals
  • The Index closed Friday below it's 20, 50 & 100 Day moving averages

Barchart Market Momentum -- The percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always good

  • 55.50% closed above their 20 DMA on Friday -- Only 27.05% above their 50 DMA -- Only 41.39% closed above their 100 DMA
  • Last week only 23.74% closed above their 20 DMA -- Only 20.40% closed above their 50 DMA -- Only 33.28% closed above their 100 DAM
  • Last month only 40.89% closed above their 20 DMA -- 51.41% closed above their 50 DMA -- 69.30% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, less than .99 bearish -- Slightly bullish this week

  • Ratio of 1 month new highs/new lows -- 395/252 = 1.57
  • Ratio of 3 month new highs/new lows -- 181/173 = 1.05
  • Ratio of 6 month new highs/new lows -- 135/114 = 1.45

Summary and Investment Strategy -- The week showed slight improvement in all 3 yardsticks. If the market holds through noon Monday I may add some new stocks to my portfolios. Of course that won't stop me from trimming off any stocks that keep having negative performance issues.

Jim Van Meerten is an investors who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Put a Tiger in you portfolio

TIGERLOGIC ( TIGR ) has an installed customer base that includes more than five lac active users representing more than 20,000 customer sites worldwide, with a significant base of diverse vertical applications. With more than hundred employees and contractors worldwide, TigerLogic offers 24x7 customer support services and maintains a strong international presence.

Their website includes a download link for an application called youlink that purports to be a better search engine than any of the other free applications.

The stock came up on my Barchart screener when I went looking for the stocks hitting the most frequent new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. TIGR hit 13 new highs in the last 20 sessions and 4 in the last 5. The last month has shown a 35.14% price appreciation. Barchart registers 11 buy signals on it's 13 technical indicators for an 88% overall buy signal. The stock trades at 4.50 with a 50 day moving average of 3.52.

Wall Street hasn't discovered this stock yet but the analysts who has this on his watch list thinks the sales will increase by 14.20% next year. Earnings per share are expected to increase by 68.40% this year and 83.30% next year, If these estimates are met this could be a nice pick.

Investors over on Motley Fool that have found this stock vote 39 to 7 that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars have a similar vote 5 to 1.

If you're looking for a speculative pick that the rest of the herd hasn't discovered yet consider these points:
  • The stock has recent price appreciation and is trading above it's 20, 50 & 100 day moving average
  • Barchart has a buy signal on 11 of it's 13 technical indicators for an 88% buy signal
  • Wall Street predicts double digit increases in sales and earnings
  • Not a large investor following but those that have found it like it

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in TIGR at the time of publication

Other sttock reviews:

S&P Retail Spider ( XRT )

Lehman ABS Corp ( KVU )

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Mid-day signs show improvement

The mid-day signs do signal an improvement over recent market softness but please don't panic and let your emotions rule over your mind. I just want to remind you that panic buying is just as bad as panic selling. Let's see where we stand.

Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks so it's more representative than the narrow S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- mixed signals

Bad News
  • Still down 7.73% in the last 30 days
  • Still down 4.15% for the last 5 days
  • 60% Barchart short term sell signal

Good news

  • Up 2.29% at noon
  • Although the Barchart sell signals are there; they are showing a weakening

Barchart Market Momentum - mixed signals

Bad News

  • only 37.26% of the stocks are trading above their 20 day moving average -- I like to see 50%+

Good News

  • Momentum up 1.73%
  • Advances of 5035 vs, declines of 772

Ratio of stocks hitting new 20 day highs/new 20 day lows -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral , under .99 bearish -- right now bullish

  • new 20 day highs 217/ new 20 day lows 209 = 1.03 first bullish sign in awhile

Summary and Investing Strategy -- Right now the market is beginning to recover but I'm waiting until the majority of the stocks trade above their 20 day moving average then I'll slowly buy back in.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions mentioned

What I'm reading:

The Average Investor Is His Own Worst Enemy by David K Randall on Forbes

Stocks Flirt With Bear Market, But Investors Aren't Panicking by Jeff Cox on CNBC

Who will sit in judgment? by staff on The Economist

Time to Buy BP, Transocean, Or Halliburton? by Wall Street Cheat Sheet on Seeking Alpha

The Deals Are Getting Good Again by Todd Weening on Motley Fool

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Make lemonade from lemons

Over my lifetime I've seen the same story unfold over and over again. Someone accumulates raw land with the idea of building an agribusiness like a dairy, cattle farm or orchard and is pretty successful. A city not far away begins to grow and pretty soon the suburbs stretch right to the border of the farm and the farmer becomes a real estate developer.

I grew up in Fort Lauderdale and saw that happen in Davie as dairies, cattle farms and orange groves became housing projects. My brother lives in Loxahatchee west of Palm Beach and now you see shopping centers and high schools surrounded by orange groves. Before Walt Disney changed it all, sleepy Orlando was a cattle and citrus farming town. I watched this happen on the north side of Atlanta and now I'm watching the same thing happen on the south side of Charlotte.

I've never had the capital to make major investments in real estate except for ventures into small rental units and REITs but maybe you can.

When I was screening for stocks hitting new highs in this down market I came across Limoneira ( LMNR ) hitting 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and gaining 37.19% in the last month. The stock has 12 of 13 Barchart technical indicators signaling a buy and trades around 21.95.

At the present time the company farms about 7,300 acres in Ventura County California and produces lemons, avocados oranges plus a few acres of specialty fruits. They have been developing some of the property into income real estate sometime selling, sometimes building and renting the property out themselves. They even have some ventures into solar energy and water management.

The company is a savvy forward thinking company with a great website plus Facebook, Twitter and even You Tube sites.

Website : http://www.limoneira.com/
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/Limoneira

So why do I think this quirky little company deserves a look? The main revenue stream is from agriculture of $31 million and rental income of almost $3 million with operating expenses of around $29 million ( of which $2.3 million is depreciation). The profits from operations help fund the carrying costs of the 7,300 acres of land.

The company gives you a chance to buy into an old dream of buying some agricultural land and letting the farm pay the overhead until you can turn the farm into a cash cow as you sell of some property and develop the rest. Give it a look.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in LMNR at the time of publication

What I'm reading today:

Women Entrepreneurs: Close The Gender Gap And Dream Big by Renee Martin on Forbes

Goldman's Highly Selective Magic Touch by Dan Solin on Huffington Post

US Steps Up Pressure on BP Over Spill; Shares Fall by Reuters on CNBC

Time-Tested Indicator Predicts Big Gains for Gold Stocks by Bill Sielinski on Seeking Alpha

Box-office blahs: Good time to invest? by Bill Brush on MSN Money Central