Educational and Instructional Stock Market Investing Newsletter for the hands-on investor. I use my 40+ years of experience in Accounting, Law and Financial Services To show you how to find stocks that will not only beat the market but consistently beat Warren Buffett, his Berkshire Hathaway fund and most of the Morningstar 5 Star mutual funds.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Should BP be nationalized?
When I was back in law school one of the biggest concepts we discussed was how the sentencing should fit the crime or tort. The old "What would God do ?" argument.God would turn back time and make it so the victims would forget the pain and they would be back exactly in the position they were before the incident and the perpetrator would be appropriately punished and could never do that dastardly deed again.
Courts can't do that. They can only restrict the offenders freedom with jail time and award the victims money damages. The pain and loss is still there and there is almost no way the court can make sure it will never happen again.
Was this oil spill an accident? If your definition of an accident is something that was unforeseeable and unavoidable then a big NO! Every environmental group warned that there would be an off shore oil rig spill so the unforeseeable excuse is out the window. Was it unavoidable? Another big NO! They will have to prove how they will avoid the same occurrence in the future or they'll never be allowed to drill another off shore well.
I watched the Washington hearings and heard BP ( BP) , Halliburton ( HAL ) and Transocean (RIG ) management not take responsibility and blame it on each other. It was almost like listening to recordings of the Nuremberg Trial after WWII. " I was just a lowly soldier following orders". Just more choruses of the " I was not a Nazi Polka".
I've read where business in the Gulf region is down 30%. Who will pay the waitresses who will be taking home 30% less tips. Who will pay the maids working in the small hotels and motels when 30% of them are laid off. Who will pay the small business owner whose receipts are 30% less?
I live all the way in Charlotte and read that seafood prices even in our region have sky rocketed. Who will pay the owners of every seafood restaurant across the country who will see their profit margin squeezed because their costs are rising but they can't raise prices to offset it. Who will pay me and you, the patrons of seafood restaurants who raised their prices?
This oil spill is not just an environmental disaster but an economic disaster as well that has ripple effects all across out country and even the world. If we wait months and years for all this to go through the court system can you see all the little people who will lose money but not be reimbursed a dime?
Who got rich because of all the shortcuts taken? The Board, Management and Stockholders of BP, Halliburton and Transocean. Who are the ones who are paying for their greedy mistakes: the little people get kicked in the butt again. How can you punish the Board, Management and stockholders of the 3 horsemen of destruction?
All the courts can do is restrict the freedom and punish with monetary fines. That leaves jail time of the Board, Management and loss of your investment for the stockholders.Who will help the waitresses, maids and small business owners pay their bills next month? Not the Board, Management and stockholders of BP, Halliburton and Transocean.
You are the judge and jury. You see the crime unfold daily on TV. You see and feel the pain of the countless victims across the country. What do you think the punishment should be?
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: I hold no positions in BP, HAL or RIG at the time of publication
Should BP be nationalized?
When I was back in law school one of the biggest concepts we discussed was how the sentencing should fit the crime or tort. The old "What would God do ?" argument.God would turn back time and make it so the victims would forget the pain and they would be back exactly in the position they were before the incident and the perpetrator would be appropriately punished and could never do that dastardly deed again.
Courts can't do that. They can only restrict the offenders freedom with jail time and award the victims money damages. The pain and loss is still there and there is almost no way the court can make sure it will never happen again.
Was this oil spill an accident? If your definition of an accident is something that was unforeseeable and unavoidable then a big NO! Every environmental group warned that there would be an off shore oil rig spill so the unforeseeable excuse is out the window. Was it unavoidable? Another big NO! They will have to prove how they will avoid the same occurrence in the future or they'll never be allowed to drill another off shore well.
I watched the Washington hearings and heard BP ( BP) , Halliburton ( HAL ) and Transocean (RIG ) management not take responsibility and blame it on each other. It was almost like listening to recordings of the Nuremberg Trial after WWII. " I was just a lowly soldier following orders". Just more choruses of the " I was not a Nazi Polka".
I've read where business in the Gulf region is down 30%. Who will pay the waitresses who will be taking home 30% less tips. Who will pay the maids working in the small hotels and motels when 30% of them are laid off. Who will pay the small business owner whose receipts are 30% less?
I live all the way in Charlotte and read that seafood prices even in our region have sky rocketed. Who will pay the owners of every seafood restaurant across the country who will see their profit margin squeezed because their costs are rising but they can't raise prices to offset it. Who will pay me and you, the patrons of seafood restaurants who raised their prices?
This oil spill is not just an environmental disaster but an economic disaster as well that has ripple effects all across out country and even the world. If we wait months and years for all this to go through the court system can you see all the little people who will lose money but not be reimbursed a dime?
Who got rich because of all the shortcuts taken? The Board, Management and Stockholders of BP, Halliburton and Transocean. Who are the ones who are paying for their greedy mistakes: the little people get kicked in the butt again. How can you punish the Board, Management and stockholders of the 3 horsemen of destruction?
All the courts can do is restrict the freedom and punish with monetary fines. That leaves jail time of the Board, Management and loss of your investment for the stockholders.Who will help the waitresses, maids and small business owners pay their bills next month? Not the Board, Management and stockholders of BP, Halliburton and Transocean.
You are the judge and jury. You see the crime unfold daily on TV. You see and feel the pain of the countless victims across the country. What do you think the punishment should be?
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: I hold no positions in BP, HAL or RIG at the time of publication
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Market in slight recovery mode
Value Line Index -- Contain 1700 stocks so its much broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Index not strong but in recovery
- Index actually rose by 1.57% last week -- That's up 3 out of the last 5 weeks and up 3 of the last 5 months
- 40% Barchart technical sell -- 2 buys, 4 holds and 7 sells
- Index closed Friday below its 20, 50 & 100 day moving average
Barchart Market Momentum -- Percentage of stocks closing above their moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always good -- This week was better than last week but not as good as a month ago
- 20 day moving average -- only 27.74% closed above -- 9.88% last week -- 48.96% last month
- 50 day moving average -- only 24.80% closed above -- 17.98% last week -- 72.22% last month
- 100 day moving average -- only 43.17% closed above -- 36.43% last week -- 80.10% last month
Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- This week almost neutral
- 1 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 191/195 = .98
- 3 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 118/132 = .89
- 6 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 107/89 = 1.20
Investment Strategy -- The market recovered but we still can't say that the market is in an upward trend. We are not attempting to call every little twist and turn in the market but if we miss just the top 10% and the bottom 10% of the major bear and bull markets there is plenty of money to be made in the remaining 80% of the middle. In sports and the stock market it's not always who hits the most home runs or the most 30 yard passes that wins, it's usually the team that made the fewest mistakes that gets the prize.
We want our portfolio to make money but we also want to be conservative and cut losses to a minimum. Next week, I'll trim some losers but I'll wait to replace until I see the market trading above it's 20 day moving averages again.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about investing on Financial Tides, Barchart and Seeking Alpha. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions mentioned
Friday, May 28, 2010
Tech seems to be where its at
Wall Street has discovered this stock and has 5 buy and 2 hold recommendations published. Sales and earnings projections are off the chart with sales expected to increase 146.90% this year and 23.60% next year. Earnings are a similar story with estimates of increases in EPS to be 311.60% this year 18.70% next year and continue at an annual rate of 20.00% for the next 5 years. I like these numbers.
Investor sentiment is beginning to build with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 180 to 29 that the stock will beat the market and a similar vote is registered by the All Stars vote of 47 to 6.
The data on Barchart shows that this is a current momentum play with 12 new highs in 20 trading sessions and 4 new highs in the last 5 days. The monthly return on this stock has been 70.03%. All of Barchart's 13 technical indicators signal a buy for a 100% buy score.
I think this stock still has some room to run because:
- Wall Street predicts double digit sales and earnings to continue
- The stock is just beginning to build a positive investor sentiment
- Each day the stock has increases in price appreciation
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides, Barchart and Seeking Alpha. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: No positions in SPRD at the time of publication
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Get in the zone with Autozone
As the consumer cuts back and drives their cars longer before a trade-in auto parts companies should see an increase in sales. Autozone's marketing plan in 2 pronged. First of course directly to the do it your selfer but they are trying to also focus on sales directly to the independent mechanics that are flourishing across the country through a financed sales program.
The stock had increases in 4 of the last 5 trading sessions for an increase of 8.07% in the last week. Barchart's 13 technical indicators all signal buy for a 100% buy signal. The stock trades around 191.99 with a 50 day moving average of 179.85.
The general investing public as measured by Motley Fool CAPS members feel the stock will beat the market by a vote of 302 to 153 with the more experienced All Stars agreeing 89 to 41. Fool notes that of the Wall Street columnists Fool follows articles have been positive 15 to 0.
Brokerage firms also have high hopes and predict double digit earnings increases of 18.60% this year, 12.20% next year and expect that EPS increase to continue at the rate of 13.20% annually for the next 5 years. Sales also are expected to increase this year and next.
3 reasons to buy Autozone:
- Recent price increases with a 100% Barchart technical buy signal
- Positive investor sentiment
- Wall Street buy recommendations based on expected increases in sales and earnings
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides, Barchart and Seeking Alpha. Please leave a comment below or email JmVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: No positions in AZO at the time of publication
Forward Industries -- FORD
This is a pure momentum play so keep your stop losses in place. The stock trades around 5.03 with a 50 day moving average of 3.57.
The stock has increased in price in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 during the last week. The stock has appreciated 66.23% in the last month so please keep those stop losses tight. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 of a possible 13 indicators signaling a buy for a 96% buy signal.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Munro Muffler & Brake just keeps on truckin'
Wall Street is forecasting double digit growth in both sales and earnings. They have given their clients 4 strong buy and 1 hold recommendations based on expected sales increases of 18.30% this year and 13.40% next year. EPS is projected to increase 31.70% this year, 20.90% next year and continue for 5 years at an annual compounded rate of 20.90%. Share price appreciation should be similar.
The stock has been up in 3 of the last 5 sessions and Barchart shows a technical buy on 10 of 13 technical indicators for an overall 72% buy score.
The general investing public is starting to notice this stock with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting that the stock will beat the market 57 to 10 with the All Stars in agreement 19 to 1. Wall Street columnists have written 3 positive articles recently.
If you're interested in an S&P 600 small cap stock that already has been noticed remember:
- Wall Street likes the possibility of increased sales and earnings
- The general investing public has also taken notice
- Recent price momentum could give you a short term pop
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing matters on Financial Tides,
Seeking Alpha and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: No positions in MNRO at the time of publication
Adc Telecommunication sees growth in China
Analysts on Wall Street have noticed this stock and has given their clients 7 buy and 7 hold recommendations. Although they estimate that sales will only increase by 6% next year they are predicting increases in earnings per share of 133.30& this year, 42.90% next year and an 11.83% 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 11.83% -- double digit is good!
Investor sentiment is positive with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting that the stock will beat the market 332 to 31 with the more experienced All Stars agreeing 112 to 5. Of the Wall Street columnists Fool follows their articles have been positive 14 to 0.
The real story has been in the stocks recent price momentum with the stock up in 4 of the last 5 sessions for a 17.01% gain in only 5 days. Barchart's 13 technical indicators have 10 of 13 possible buy signals for a 72% technical buy score. The stock trades around 8.37 with a 50 day moving average of 7.83.
A momentum investment play with:
- Recent upward price momentum of 17.01% in a week
- Wall Street predicting increases in sales and earnings
- Positive Investor sentiment
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about investing on Financial Tides, Barchart and Seeking Alpha. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: No positions in ADCT at the time of publication
Flash Memory Technology
Sandisk has a leg up on all the other players with their products used in Apple's I-Pad, Amazon's Kindle and many of the widely used smart phones.
The stock is a 100% Barchart technical buy with all 13 technical indicators giving a buy signal. The stock has been up in all of the last 5 sessions and had a 11.55% price appreciation in the past week alone. The stock trades around 44.77 with a 50 day moving average of 38.53.
Wall Street analysts see fundamental strength in the numbers with increases in both sales and earnings forecasted. They have published 11 buy and 7 hold recommendations based on an expected sales increase of 35.70% this year and 10.40% next year. Earnings growth on a 5 year annual compounded basis is expected to be 17.50% per year.
The investing public has taken notice with the CAPS members on Motley Fool betting the the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 1649 to 142 and the All Stars agree 470 to 29.
The stock is a buy right now because of :
- Recent and consistent price appreciation
- A Barchart technical buy score of 100%
- Wall Street recommending a buy to their clients and predicting increases in both sales and earnings
- A wide and positive investor sentiment
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Barchart, Seeking Alpha and Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure : no positions in SNDK at the time of publication
Monday, May 24, 2010
Apple - The most popular stock on the planet
Whenever I want to fell ancient I just go to an Apple Store and stand behind some 8 year old and watch them play with the new Apple products. I find myself talking like Steve Urkel but instead of saying" Did I do that?"; I find myself saying " I didn't KNOW I could do that!"
Why do I think Apple is the most popular stock on the planet? Over on Motley Fool 23,758 members have given an opinion on the stock -- more than any other. 21,803 are positive to the 1955 that think it can't beat the market. Even the experienced All Stars vote 4559 to 235 that it will beat the market. Fool notes that all 45 of the last articles about the company have been positive. If that isn't hero worship I don't know what is.
Wall Street is also in awe with 37 buy, 4 hold and only 2 under perform reports published. Sales increases of 61.60% this year and 16.80% next year are estimated with earnings increases of 46.70% this year, 15.10% next year and a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 16.47% expected.
There seems to be no doubt that Apple will grow but with all the herd following them are they worth their 20.4 price earnings ratio? The growth in I-Pad sales and new products that they always seem to create have analysts looking for a price between 400 and 480 in the next 5 years from the 250 where it is selling now.
The stock has lost 7.61% in the last 30 days but that is less than the 11.89% the market as measured by the Value Line Index has lost.
The stock is presently trading below it's 20 day moving average but still above its 50 and 100 day moving average.
Citibank and Bank of America may not be too big to fail but it seems that Apple may be too popular to fail.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: No position in AAPL at the time of publication