Showing posts with label WPG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WPG. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Mall REIT Caution

I believe in the Efficient Market Theory -- in the long run.  By that I think that on any given day a stock is either over valued or under valued but eventually after all the various investor segments digest the total news about a company the price trend begins to trend in the direction of the stocks actual Revenue and Earnings.

Right now I see several clues that tell me that Mall REITs  may be over valued:

  1. Major retailers are announcing cutbacks in their expansion plans
  2. Major retailers are showing decreasing same store sales
  3. Major retailers keep announcing store closings
  4. The stock prices of major retailers are falling
  5. Hedge funds are beginning to increase their short interest in Mall REITs
The Mall REITs are dependent on the profitability of those major retailers to pay the rents.

Right now there is a disconnect between the share prices of major retailers and share prices of the mall owners.  Common sense tells me that the prices of both sectors should eventually have a positive correlation.

Who are the major mall owners:

Simon Property Group (SPG), General Growth Properties (GGP), Washington Prime Group (WPG), Kimco Realty (KIM), Developers Diversified Realty (DDR), The Macerich Co. (MAC), CBL & Associates Properties (CBL), Regency Centers (REG) and Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI)

At this time I would choose one of these strategies depending on your risk profile:
  • Not increase my holdings in any of these REITs
  • If you own any of these you might want to calculate your exit point and put in stop losses
  • Buy some puts on these stocks
  • Short some of these stocks like the hedge funds

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/23

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.33%) this morning are down -0.25% and European stocks are down -1.22% after a gauge of European manufacturing activity weakened more than expected to its slowest pace in 14 months. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are another negative for stocks as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain joined the U.S. in a series of airstrikes against Islamic State positions in Syria along the Iraqi border. Meanwhile, Israel shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it penetrated Israeli airspace over the Golan Heights. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.49%, China +0.86%, Taiwan -0.54%, Australia +0.98%, Singapore +0.05%, South Korea -0.64%, India -1.58%. Chinese stocks rallied and closed higher after a gauge of China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly increased. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Nov crude oil (CLX14 +0.78%) is up +0.47%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.95%) is up +0.37%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +1.27%) is up +0.73%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.31%) is up +0.26%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) is down -0.35%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.29%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.35%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.11%) are up +4 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 to 50.5, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.1 to 50.6 and the slowest pace of expansion in 14 months.
The Eurozone Sep Markit composite PMI fell -0.2 to 52.3, weaker than expectations of no change at 52.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 9 months.
The German Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI fell -1.1 to 50.3 a bigger decline than expectations of -0.2 to 51.2 and the slowest pace of expansion in 15 months.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 50.5, better than expectations of -0.2 to 50.0.
UK Aug public sector net borrowing increased by +10.9 billion pounds, more than expectations of +10.2 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s July FHFA house price index to rise by +0.4% m/m, matching the +0.4% m/m rise seen in June. The market is expecting today’s Sep Richmond Fed manufacturing index to show a -2 point decline to 10, reversing part of August’s increase of +5 points to 12. The Treasury today will auction $29 billion of 2-year T-notes. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: CarMax (consensus $0.67), Bed Bath & Beyond (1.14), Copart (0.41), Carnival Corp (1.44).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies West Coast Electronic Payments Summit on Tue, UBS Chemicals Conference on Tue, Citi Industrial Conference on Mon-Tue, Capital Link Global Shipping, Marine Services & Offshore Forum on Tue, World LNG Series:Asia Pacific Summit on Tue-Thu, Avondale's Dallas Airlines Day on Wed, and 8th Rocky Mountain Utility Efficiency Exchange on Wed-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CarMax (KMX -1.42%) reported Q2 EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents.
Dresser-Rand (DRC +2.58%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Clorox (CLX +7.35%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -0.25%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at William Blair.
Fluor (FLR -2.46%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
Cree (CREE -1.92%) was upgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Underweight' at Stephens.
Siemens (SIEGY -0.85%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS -1.61%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at William Blair.
Herbalife (HLF -10.31%) rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading after sources close to the matter said that billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn has not sold out of his stake in the company
AEGON (AEG unch) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Ascena Retail (ASNA -2.36%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, well below consensus of 18 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to 90 cents-$1.00, weaker than consensus of $1.25.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.33%) this morning are down -5.00 points (-0.25%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.80%, Dow Jones -0.62%, Nasdaq -0.95%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in global stocks after China’s finance minister dampened speculation his government will boost economic stimulus when he said that growth in China faces downward pressure and that there won’t be major changes in policy in response to individual economic indicators, (2) the unexpected drop in U.S. Aug existing home sales which fell -1.8% to 5.05 million, weaker than expectations of +1.0% to 5.20 million.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.11%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Aug existing home sales, (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks plunged, and (3) reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate dropped to a 14-1/2 month low. Closes: TYZ4 +9.00, FVZ4 +6.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) this morning is down -0.296 (-0.35%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0037 (+0.29%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.35%). The dollar index on Monday posted a new 4-year high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) a slide in EUR/USD to a 14-1/4 month low after Eurozone Sep consumer confidence fell more than expected to a 7-month low and after ECB President Draghi told the EU Parliament that the risks surrounding the expected expansion in the Eurozone “are clearly on the downside.” EUR/USD recovered, though, and closed higher after New York Fed President Dudley said that if the dollar “were to strengthen a lot” there would be consequences for economic growth. Closes: Dollar index +0.017 (+0.02%), EUR/USD +0.00194 (+0.15%), USD/JPY -0.199 (-0.18%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 +0.78%) this morning is up +43 cents (+0.47%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.95%) is up +0.0091 (+0.37%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower: CLX4 -0.78 (-0.85%), RBXX4 -0.0369 (-1.46%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a fresh 4-year high, (2) Chinese demand concerns after China’s Finance Minister said China’s economic growth faces downward pressure, and (3) U.S. demand concerns after the unexpected decline in U.S. Aug existing home sales.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/23/2014
US0900 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers welcoming remarks to the St. Louis Feds community banking conference.
0900 ETJul FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, Jun +0.4% m/m.
0920 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell and Kansas City Fed President Esther George speak at the St. Louis Feds community banking conference.
0945 ETPreliminary Sep Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 58.0, Aug +2.1 to 57.9.
1000 ETSep Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -2 to 10, Aug +5 to 12.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 2-year T-notes.
1400 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota holds a town hall forum at Northern Michigan University.
2115 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economy in Cheyenne, WY.
GER0330 ETGerman Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 51.2, Aug 51.4. Sep Markit services PMI expected -0.3 to 54.6, Aug 54.9.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Sep Markit composite PMI expected unch at 52.5.
UK0430 ETUK Aug public sector net borrowing expected +10.2 billion pounds, Jul -1.1 billion pounds.
JPN2135 ETJapan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Aug 52.2.
n/aJapanese markets close for Autumnal Equinox Day.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/23/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
CarMax IncKMX USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.673
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US7:45Investor and Analyst Conference - ClevelandY 2014
Boston Properties IncBXP US8:00Investor ConferenceY 2014
TimkenSteel CorpTMST US8:00Investor ConferenceY 2014
Urban Outfitters IncURBN US9:00Investor DayY 2014
CarMax IncKMX US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Carnival CorpCCL US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Washington Prime Group IncWPG US10:00Acquisition of Glimcher Realty Trust by Washington Prime Group Inc. Call
General Mills IncGIS US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US13:00Investor and Financial Analyst Conference - BellevueY 2014
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US16:15Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.144
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Copart IncCPRT USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.408
Carnival CorpCCL USQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.439
Celgene CorpCELG USPDUFA, apremilast, psoriasis
Pepco Holdings IncPOM USSpecial Meeting - M&A Vote

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/10

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.23%) this morning are down -0.17% as they fall back from Monday's record high, although European stocks are up +0.25% at a 5-3/4 year high after UK industrial production rose at its fastest annual pace in over 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.85%, Hong Kong +0.86%, China +1.26%, Taiwan +0.65%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea +1.14%, India +0.01%. Chinese stocks rallied as the Shanghai Stock Index climbed to its best level in a week after the PBOC announced a -0.5 point cut in reserve requirements for some banks in a policy move aimed at supporting smaller companies and agriculture. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.34%) is up +0.35% at a 3-week high on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA inventory data will show crude stockpiles fell -1.5 million bbl. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.16%) is up +0.14%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.09%) is down -0.08%. July copper (HGN14 -0.31%) is down -0.51%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is down -0.38%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.08%) are down -2 ticks.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that effective Jun 16, it will cut the reserve requirement by -0.5 of a percentage point for two-thirds of city commercial banks, 80% of non-county level rural commercial banks and 90% on non-county rural cooperative banks in a policy move aimed at supporting smaller companies and agriculture.
China May CPI rose +2.5% y/y, more than expectations of +2.4% y/y. May PPI fell -1.4% y/y, less than expectations of -1.5% y/y.
UK Apr industrial production rose +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y, better than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y with the +3.0% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 3-1/4 years.
UK Apr manufacturing production rose +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y with the +4.4% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 3-1/4 years.
The UK May BRC like-for-like retail sales monitor rose +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +1.6% y/y.
The Japan Apr tertiary industry activity index fell -5.4% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -3.4% m/m and matched the Apr 2011 drop as the largest decline in 17 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $28 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Science Applications (consensus $0.67), HD Supply Holdings (0.17), Ulta Salon (0.74).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference on Tue, Harbor's Aluminum Outlook Summit on Tue, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Future of Payments & Commerce Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs North American Energy Summit on Wed, Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed, 2nd Annual Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed-Thu, Drexel Hamilton Aerospace and Defense Conference on Thu, and Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. Utility & Infrastructure Symposium on Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tyson Foods (TSN -6.53%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
SAIC (SAIC -1.22%) reported Q1 EPS of 69 cents, higher than consensus of 66 cents.
Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.62%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Twitter (TWTR +3.42%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at Wells Fargo.
ConocoPhillips (COP +0.01%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $94.
Union Pacific (UNP -49.40%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +0.81%) said Q2 comparative sales to date are 'approximately flat.'
HD Supply (HDS +0.84%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 20 cents, better than consensus of 18 cents.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS -2.16%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Netflix (NFLX -1.64%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Evercore.
Chico’s FAS (CHS -0.19%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after the Financial Times reported that the company is considering a sale to PE firms and going private.
eBay (EBAY -0.24%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that PayPal President David Marcus is leaving the company on June 27 to lead Facebook’s (FB +0.61%) messaging products.
Pep Boys ({=PBY reported Q1 EPS of 3 cents, well below consensus of 6 cents.
BlackRock reported a 11.3% passive stake in Washington Prime Group (WPG -0.05%) and a 10.1% passive stake in Quotient (QTNT +1.86%) .
PL Capital reported a 7.1% stake in Banc of California (BANC +1.15%) .
According to Reuters, International Game Technology (IGT +14.39%) hired Morgan Stanley to explore a sale and has attracted interest from rival gaming companies as well as private equity firms.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +3.34%) reported Q4 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 53 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.23%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.17%). The S&P 500 index on Monday climbed to yet another new record high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) reduced Chinese economic concerns after China May exports rose +7.0% y/y, better than expectations of +6.7% y/y, and (2) increased M&A activity after Merck agreed to buy Idenix Pharmaceuticals for $3.9 billion, Analog Devices bought Hittite Microwave for $2 billion, and Tyson Foods made a binding offer to buy Hillshire Brands for $7.7 billion. Closes: S&P 500 +0.09%, Dow Jones +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.03%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.08%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors for T-notes included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $62 billion of T-notes this week starting with Tuesday’s $28 billion auction of 3-year T-notes, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 climbed to a new record high. Closes: TYU4 -5.50, FVU4 -5.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) this morning is up +0.158 (+0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0051 (-0.38%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher. Supportive factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Jun Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -4.3 to a 6-month low of 8.5, and (2) speculation that divergent monetary policies among global central banks will boost the dollar’s interest rate differentials versus the euro and yen as the Fed continues to taper QE3 while the BOJ and ECB expand their monetary stimulus measures. Closes: Dollar Index +0.244 (+0.30%), EUR/USD -0.00488 (-0.36%), USD/JPY +0.038 (+0.04%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.34%) this morning is up +37 cents (+0.35%) at a 3-week high. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.16%) is up +0.0041 (+0.14%). July crude and gasoline prices on Monday climbed to 1-week highs and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) signs of strength in the global economy after China May exports rose more than expected, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to another record high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Closes: CLN4 +1.75 (+1.70%) RBN4 +0.0458 (+1.56%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/10/2014
US1000 ETApr wholesale inventories expected +0.6% m/m, Mar +1.1% m/m. Apr wholesale sales expected +0.9%, Mar +1.4% m/m.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $28 billion 3-year T-notes.
JPN0200 ETJapan May machine tool orders, Apr +48.7% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Q2 BSI large all industry business conditions, Q1 12.7. Q2 BSI large manufacturing business condition, Q1 12.5.
1950 ETJapan May domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Apr +2.8% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Apr industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Mar -0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
0430 ETUK Apr manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Mar +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/10/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Science Applications International CorpSAIC USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.665
HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US6:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.173
HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Science Applications International CorpSAIC US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Covanta Holding CorpCVA US8:30Business Update Call
TD Ameritrade Holding CorpAMTD US8:30May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
MetLife IncMET US8:45Investor Conference-New YorkY 2014
Aaron's IncAAN US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
3D Systems CorpDDD US9:00Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2014
General Motors CoGM US9:30Annual General MeetingY 2014
White Mountains Insurance Group LtdWTM US10:00Investor MeetingY 2014
Best Buy Co IncBBY US10:30Annual General MeetingY 2014
Essex Property Trust IncESS US16:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.741
Autodesk IncADSK US17:30Annual General MeetingY 2014
TJX Cos Inc/TheTJX USAnnual General Meeting
Alliant Energy CorpLNT USRoadshow-Day 1Y 2014
United Parcel Service IncUPS USRoadshow - ZurichY 2014
Hospitality Properties TrustHPT USAnnual General Meeting
AMC Networks IncAMCX USAnnual General Meeting
Endo International PLCENDP USAnnual General Meeting
LinkedIn CorpLNKD USAnnual General Meeting
KAR Auction Services IncKAR USAnnual General Meeting
Splunk IncSPLK USAnnual General Meeting
Pinnacle Foods IncPF USAnnual General Meeting