Showing posts with label USM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USM. Show all posts

Monday, March 3, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/3

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -1.05%) this morning are down -1.10% and European stocks are down sharply by -2.69% after Russian troops seized control of Ukraine's Crimea region. The situation threatens to escalate after Russian servicemen attacked Ukrainian army units in the last 24 hours, according to Ukraine's border guard service. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is traveling to Kiev after discussing sanctions against Russia, and European Union foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting. The Russian ruble tumbled to a record low, which prompted Bank Rossii, Russia's central bank, to unexpectedly hike the 1-week auction rate, the benchmark rate introduced in Sep, by 150 bp to 7.00%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.27%, Hong Kong -1.47%, China +0.52%, Taiwan -0.44%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore -0.75%, South Korea -0.82%, India -0.82%. Commodity prices are sharply higher as escalating tension in Ukraine fuel concern that energy and agricultural supplies will be disrupted. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 +2.00%) is up +1.94% at a 5-1/4 month high. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +1.95%) is up +1.97%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +1.82%) is up +1.73% at a 4-month high on increased safe-haven demand from the Ukraine crisis. May copper (HGK14 -0.71%) is down -0.86% at a 3-1/2 month low after manufacturing activity in China weakened to its slowest pace in 8-months. Agriculture prices are sharply higher with May corn up +3.24% at a 5-3/4 month high and May wheat up +5.35% at a 2-1/2 month high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.27%) is up +0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.29%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.53%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 +0.36%) are up +16 ticks on surge in safe-haven demand as global stocks slump on the Ukraine crisis.
The China Feb manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 50.2, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.4 to 50.1, but still the slowest pace of expansion in 8-months. The Feb non-manufacturing PMI rose +1.6 to 55.0.
The German Feb PMI manufacturing index was revised up to 54.8 from the originally reported 54.7.
The Eurozone Feb manufacturing PMI index was revised higher to 53.2 from the originally reported 53.0.
The UK Feb PMI manufacturing index rose +0.3 to 56.9 from an upward revised 56.6 in Jan, a faster pace of expansion than expectations of +0.1 to 56.8.
UK Jan mortgage approvals rose 76,900, more than expectations of 74,500 and the most in 6-years.
UK Jan net consumer credit rose +0.7 billion pounds, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a recovery of +0.7 points to 52.0 after the sharp -5.2 point drop to 51.3 seen in January. Today’s Feb total vehicle sales report is expected to improve to 15.40 million from 15.16 million in January. Today’s Jan personal income and consumption report is expected to be modest and show increases of +0.2% and +0.1%, respectively. Today’s Jan PCE deflator is expected to be unchanged from December at +1.1% y/y. Meanwhile, the Jan core PCE deflator is expected to ease to +1.1% y/y from +1.2% in December. There are 8 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnins today: Nu Skin Enterprises (consensus $2.01), WP Carey (0.79), Ascena Retail Group (0.21), MBIA (0.17), McDermott International (0.16), URS Corp (0.18), Rockwood Holdings (0.32), Stratasys (0.49).
Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley Utilities Conference on Mon, Citi Korea Investor Conference on Mon, JMP Securities Technology Research Conference on Mon-Tue,
Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Citi Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Cowen & Co. Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference on Mon-Wed, Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference on Tue, IHS Energy CERAWeek Conference on Tue, UBS Natural Gas Electric Power and MLP Conference, Morgan Stanley European Medtech & Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Canadian Energy Research Institure (CERI) National Gas Conference on Tue, Pacific Crest Emerging Tech Summit conference on Wed, ISI Enterprise Infrastructure Conference on Wed, Mitsubishi Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, and Jefferies Industrial Leaders Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Autodesk (ADSK -3.32%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Superior Energy (SPN +2.00%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
Darden (DRI +2.53%) lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 82 cents, below consensus of 93 cents, citing severe winter weather that undercut restaurant sales.
Tyco (TYC -0.66%) said it will sell its security business in South Korea to Carlyle Group (CG +0.58%) for $1.93 billion.
Intuit INTU=}) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
U.S. Cellular (USM -3.81%) and Telephone and Data (TDS -2.36%) were both upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Magna (MGA +2.21%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.03, well above consensus of $1.54.
Bloomberg reported that Las Vegas Sands (LVS +0.14%) said customer data was stolen recently in a cyber-attack on systems at its Pennsylvania property.
Raytheon (RTN +0.33%) was awarded $655.41 million government contract for two PATRIOT fire units and associated initial spares for the military of Kuwait.
In a regulatory filing, billionare investor Carl Icahn disclosed the purchase of an additional 33,515 shares of Herbalife (HLF -1.01%) .
VA Partners reported a 6.6% stake in Dresser-Rand (DRC +0.06%) .
Cooper Tire (CTB +0.08%) reported Q3 EPS of 0 cents, well below consensus of 38 cents, as the company said there was unusual items related to the terminated merger agreement with Apollo Tyres.
Moody's Investors Service raised its outlook on Germany's Aaa government bond rating to stable from negative.
Michael Weiss reported a 15.0% stake in Coronado (CNDO -3.73%) .
River Road Asset reported a 9.2% stake in Miller Energy (MILL +0.73%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -1.05%) this morning are down sharply by -20.50 points (-1.10%) as escalating tensions in Ukraine prompts a sell-off in global stocks. The S&P 500 on Friday opened lower after U.S. Q4 GDP was revised lower to +2.4% from +3.2%, which was a slightly larger decline than expectations of +2.5%. Stocks recovered and rallied to a fresh record high and closed higher, however, on bullish factors that included (1) the unexpected +0.2 point rise in the Chicago Feb PMI that to 59.8, better than expectations of -3.2 to 56.4, and (2) the +0.4 point increase in the final-Feb University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence index to 81.6, stronger than expectations of unch at 81.2. Closes: S&P 500 +0.49%, Dow Jones +0.46%, Nasdaq 100 +0.63%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 +0.36%) this morning are up +16 ticks at a 1-month high. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices Friday fell back from a 1-month high and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) signs of economic growth after the unexpected increases in the Feb Chicago PMI and the U.S. Feb University of Michigan consumer confidence, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, which reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Closes: TYM4 -7.00, FVM4 -3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.27%) this morning is up +0.192 (+0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.004 (-0.29%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.54 (-0.53%). The dollar index on Friday fell to a 2-month low and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) strength in EUR/USD, which rallied to a 2-month high after the Feb Eurozone CPI estimate of +0.8% y/y was higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y and dampened speculation the ECB will expand its stimulus measures when it meets on Thursday. Closes: Dollar index -0.594 (-0.74%), EUR/USD +0.00912 (+0.67%), USD/JPY -0.384 (-0.38%).
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 +2.00%) this morning is up +$1.99 a barrel (+1.94%) at a 5-1/4 month high and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +1.95%) is up +0.0588 (+1.97%). Apr crude and gasoline prices Friday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 2-month low, (2) the unexpected increase in the Feb Chicago PMI, and (3) the unexpected increase in the U.S. Feb University of Michigan consumer confidence. Gains were limited after U.S. Q4 GDP was revised lower than expected, a sign of weaker energy demand. Closes: CLJ4 +0.19 (+0.19%), RBJ4 +0.0169 (+0.57%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/03/2014
US0830 ETJan personal spending expected +0.1%, Dec +0.4%. Jan personal income expected +0.2%, Dec unch. Jan PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +1/1% y/y. Jan PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
1000 ETFeb ISM manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 52.0, Jan -5.2 to 51.3. Feb ISM prices paid expected -3.1 to 57.4, Jan +7.0 to 60.5. Feb ISM new orders sub-index, Jan -13.2 to 51.2.
1000 ETJan construction spending expected -0.5% m/m, Dec +0.1% m/m.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
n/aFeb total vehicle sales expected 15.40 million, Jan 15.16 million. Feb domestic vehicle sales expected 11.90 million, Jan 11.94 million.
JPN0000 ETJapan Feb vehicle sales, Jan +27.5% y/y.
2030 ETJapan Jan labor cash earnings expected +0.3% y/y, Dec +0.5% y/y.
GER0355 ETRevised German Feb PMI manufacturing, previous 54.7.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Feb PMI manufacturing, previous 53.0.
0900 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the Quarterly Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.
UK0430 ETUK Feb PMI manufacturing expected +0.3 to 57.0, Jan 56.7.
0430 ETUK Jan net consumer credit expected +0.7 billion pounds, Dec +0.6 billion pounds.
0430 ETUK Jan mortgage approvals expected 74,500, Dec 71,600.
0430 ETUK Jan M4 money supply, Dec -1.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/03/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Nu Skin Enterprises IncNUS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20132.012
WP Carey IncWPC US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.79
BioMarin Pharmaceutical IncBMRN US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Stratasys LtdSSYS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Ford Motor CoF US3/3/2014February 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Ford Motor CoF US3/3/2014February 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Rockwood Holdings IncROC US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Nu Skin Enterprises IncNUS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
WP Carey IncWPC US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Ascena Retail Group IncASNA US3/3/2014Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.213
Ascena Retail Group IncASNA US3/3/2014Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
McDermott International IncMDR US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
URS CorpURS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
MBIA IncMBI US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.17
McDermott International IncMDR US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.163
URS CorpURS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.175
Rockwood Holdings IncROC US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.321
Stratasys LtdSSYS US3/3/2014Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.494
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Friday, February 24, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 2/24

Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - 1 hr 8 mins ago
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.09% and Mar S&Ps up +3.70 points. Treasuries are weaker and the dollar index slid to a 2-week low as global economic optimism propels stock prices higher. The euro climbed to a 2-1/2 month high against the dollar on the prospects that G-20 officials meeting this weekend in Mexico City may discuss committing further resources to Europe's debt crisis. French consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month in Feb, which added to today's bullish factors for stocks, after the Feb French consumer confidence indicator rose +1 to 82, better than expectations of unchanged at 81 and its best level in 4 months. Comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard also gave stocks a lift and weakened Treasuries when he said he sees "possible 3% growth" in 2012 and that a drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8% is possible by year-end. Liquidity concerns continue to ease in Europe as the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of European banks' reluctance to lend to one another, fell to 66 bp between the euro interbank offered rate and overnight indexed swaps, a 5-3/4 month low.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.54%, China +1.60%, Australia +0.48%, South Korea +0.61%, India -0.86%. Asian stocks rose on optimism Europe will contain its debt crisis; increased speculation China will ease monetary policy and signs that the U.S. economy is improving. Japan's Nikkei 2225 Stock Average climbed to a 6-1/2 month high led by strength in exporters, as the yen weakened to a 7-1/2 month low against the dollar and boosted exporters' earnings prospects. South Korean stocks closed higher after Feb South Korean consumer confidence rose +2 to 100, a 3-month high, while China's Shanghai Stock Index posted a 3-1/4 month high on speculation local governments are relaxing restrictions on the property market and an improving economy will spur Chinese exports.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.70 points. The US stock market Thursday erased early losses and settled higher after weekly U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly held at a 3-3/4 year low and FHFA Dec U.S. home prices rose more than expected: Dow Jones +0.36%, S&P 500 +0.43%, Nasdaq Composite +0.81%. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims that unexpectedly held steady at a 3-3/4 year low of 351,000, better than expectations of a +7,000 increase to 355,000, (2) a rally in home builders after the larger-than-expected increase in the Dec FHFA house price purchase only index (+0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.1% m/m), and (3) optimism that Europe may be able to withstand the negative effects of the region's debt crisis after the Fed German IFO business climate rose to a 7-month high and ECB President Draghi said "positive" signs have increased within the last 2 weeks in the Euro-Zone.
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks after the European Commission cut its 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to contraction of -0.3% from a Nov forecast of +0.5% growth and (2) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said additional asset-purchases from the Fed are unnecessary and are "wishful thinking" by Wall Street.
  • American International Group (AIG) jumped 8.1% in European trading after the company said it posted net income in Q4 of $19.8 billion and that it will generate emough profit to use tax assets, tied to prior losses, that can limit future payments to the government.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1 tick. T-note prices Thursday weakened early after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly held steady but then erased their losses and settled higher after strong demand was seen for the Treasury's $29 billion 7-year T-note auction: TYH2 +5.0, FVH2 -0.5, EDM2 -1.5. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) economic growth concerns after the European Commission cut its 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to contraction of -0.3% from a Nov forecast of +0.5% growth and (2) strong demand for the Treasury's $29 billion auction of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.11, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.81. Bearish factors included (1) weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims that unexpectedly held steady at a 3-3/4 year low of 351,000, better than expectations of a +7,000 increase to 355,000, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Dec FHFA house price purchase only index (+0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.1% m/m), (3) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said additional asset purchases by the Fed are unnecessary and calls for such a move are ?wishful thinking? by Wall Street, and (4) carry-over weakness from a slide in German bunds after the Fed German IFO business climate index rose to a 7-month high.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker and posted a 2-week low with the dollar/yen +0.56 yen and the euro/dollar +0.52 cents. The dollar index Thursday slipped to a 1-1/2 week low and settled lower after the Feb German IFO business confidence climbed to a 7-month high: Dollar Index -0.392, USDJPY -0.294, EURUSD +0.01229. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the euro which rose to a 2-1/4 month high against the dollar on optimism the European economy may withstand the region's debt crisis after the Feb German IFO business climate climbed to its best level in 7 months and (2) euro positive comments from ECB President Draghi who said "positive" signs have increased within the last 2 weeks in the Euro-Zone. Bullish factors included (1) the action by the EU to cut its 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to contraction of -0.3% from a Nov forecast of +0.5% growth and (2) dollar positive comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said additional asset-purchases from the Fed are unnecessary and are "wishful thinking" by Wall Street.
  • Apr crude oil prices this morning are up +52 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is +0.15 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday settled higher as an increase in German business confidence and a weaker dollar offset a larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE crude supplies along with comments from Saudi Arabia's deputy oil minister: CLJ12 +$1.55, RBJ +2.59. Apr crude posted a 9-1/2 month high and Apr gasoline rose to a 6-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) improvement in the U.S. labor market that may boost fuel demand after weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims unexpectedly held at a 3-3/4 year low, and (3) the unexpected decline in weekly DOE gasoline supplies (-649,000 bbl versus expectations of +250,000). Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE crude stockpiles (+1.63 million bbl to a 5-month high of 340.7 million bbl versus expectations of a +1.5 million bbl increase), (2) comments from Saudi Arabia?s deputy oil minister who said oil markets are currently ?well supplied,? and (3) the action by the European Commission to cut its 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to contraction of -0.3% from a Nov forecast of +0.5% growth.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): NEM-Newmont Mining (BEST earnings consensus $1.27), JCP-J.C. Penney (0.67), AWK-American Water Works (0.33), SUG-Southern Union (0.55), PNW-Pinnacle West Capital (0.04), IPG-Interpublic Group of Cos. (0.39), POM-Pepco Holdings (0.19), ANR-Alpha Natural Resources (0.26), WCRX-Warner Chilcott PLC (0.90), ENDP-Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings (1.32), USM-United States Cellular (0.24), FSLR-First Solar (1.57), TDS-Telephone & Data Systems (0.25), CIM-Chimera Investment (0.11), Y-Alleghany (3.62).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 2/24/12
United States
0955 ET Final Feb U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.5 to 73.0, previous -2.5 to 72.5.
1000 ET Jan new home sales expected +2.6% to 315,000, Dec -2.2% to 307,000.
1135 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and San Francisco Fed President John Williams speak on a panel titled ?Housing, Monetary Policy and the Recovery? at the 2012 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Initiative on Global Markets in New York.
Germany
0200 ET Revised Q4 German GDP, previous -0.2% q/q and +2.0% y/y.
France
0245 ET Feb French consumer confidence indicator expected unchanged at 81, Jan +1 to 81.
1200 ET Jan French jobseekers net change expected +32,500, Dec +29,700. Jan total jobseekers, Dec 2,874,500
United Kingdom
0430 ET Revised Q4 U.K. GDP, previous -0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
0430 ET Q4 U.K. total business investment expected -0.7% q/q and +2.2% y/y, Q3 +0.3% q/q and +4.3% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET ECB Council member Ewald Nowotny speak at an event in Vienna.
n/a G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet for a 2-day summit in Mexico City.

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