Tuesday, November 4th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.17%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.16% after the EU cut its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for this year and next. Also, energy producers are lower after the price of WTI crude oil tumbled to a 3-year low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +2.73%, Hong Kong -0.29%, China +0.02%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia +0.24%, Singapore -0.28%, South Korea -0.88%, India closed for holiday. Japanese markets reopened from Monday's holiday and stock prices surged as the Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-year high. Exporters rallied on Monday's slide in the yen to a 6-3/4 year low against the dollar and the overall Japanese stock market found support on the action of Japan's pension fund, the world's biggest, to double the amount of stocks it allocates to its fund. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -2.89%) is down -2.68% at a 3-year low after Saudi Arabia’s cut the price of crude it sells to the U.S. in an attempt to preserve its share of OPEC output. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -2.41%) is down -2.23% at a 4-year low. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.08%) is up +0.15%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.21%) is down -0.33%. Agriculture prices are weaker as the pace of the U.S. harvest picked up. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) is down -0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.26% after Eurozone Sep producer prices unexpectedly rose. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.57%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.19%) are up +5.5 ticks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds as the 10-year bund yield fell to a 2-week low after the EU cut its GDP and inflation forecasts.The European Commission said the recovery in the Eurozone is "not only subdued but also fragile" as it cut its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to +0.8% from a May forecast of +1.2% and lowered its 2015 Eurozone GDP estimate to 1.1% from a May estimate of +1.7%. The commission also lowered its Eurozone 2014 inflation estimate to +0.5% from +0.8% and cut its 2015 inflation forecast to 0.8% from +1.2%.
Eurozone Sep PPI unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, higher than expectations of unch m/m, and on an annual basis Sep PPI fell -1.4% y/y, less than expectations of -1.5% y/y.
The UK Oct Markit/CIPS construction PMI fell -2.8 to 61.4, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.7 to 63.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 5 months.
Japan Oct vehicle sales fell -9.1% y/y, the largest decline in six months and the third straight month that vehicle sales have fallen.
The Japan Oct Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 52.4 from the originally reported 52.8, still the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep U.S. trade deficit is expected to expand slightly to -$40.2 billion from -$40.1 billion in August. The market is expecting today’s Sep factory orders report to show a -0.6% decline, adding to the sharp decline of -10.1% seen in August.There are 30 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Motorola Solutions (0.41), Priceline (21.08), ICE (2.01), ADM (0.73), Emerson Electric (1.23), International Paper (0.88), TripAdvisor (0.60). Equity conferences this week include: Latin Markets Hedge Fund Americas Forum on Tue-Wed, Gabelli & Company Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on Tue, Raymond James Global Airline Transportation Conference on Thu, BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.12, above consensus of $2.01.Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL -1.31%) reported Q3 EPS of 13 cents, much better than consensus of a -1 cent loss.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.66%) said the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation of the company's Forex trading.
RockTenn (RKT +0.70%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.31, higher than consensus of $1.05.
Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.09%) has been awarded a $271.82 milllion government contract modification to a previously awarded contract to provide the government of Taiwan with installation of 142 aircraft kits to upgrade their fleet of F-16 aircraft.
AmTrust (AFSI +4.08%) reported Q3 EPS non-GAAP of $1.79, well above consensus of $1.14.
Marathon Oil (MRO -2.34%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 76 cents, stronge than consensus of 59 cents.
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Autodesk (ADSK +0.40%) .
L Brands (LB +0.44%) jumped 3% in European trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to 38 cents-40 cents from 26 cents-31 cents, higher than consensus of 32 cents.
Herbalife (HLF +6.56%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.45, weaker than consensus of $1.51, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $5.80-$5.90, below consensus of $6.26.
Alleghany (Y +0.92%) reported Q3 EPS of $11.40, well above consensus of $7.60.
West Corp. (WSTC +0.09%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 82 cents, stronger than consensus of 74 cents.
Community Health (CYH +0.84%) reported Q3 EPS of 54 cents, well below consensus of 76 cents.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +1.42%) reported Q3 EPS of 27 cents, less than consensus of 29 cents.
Kaman (KAMN -1.16%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 60 cents, weaker than consensus of 67 cents.
AIG (AIG +0.43%) climbed over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.21, higher than consensus of $1.09.
Frontier Communications (FTR -0.76%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 5 cents, better than consensus of 4 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.17%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rose to a new record high but gave up its advance and closed little changed: S&P 500 -0.01%, Dow Jones -0.14%, Nasdaq +0.27%. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected +2.3 point rise in the Oct ISM manufacturing index to 59.0, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 56.1, and (2) strong Q3 stock earnings results with nearly 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies having beaten estimates. Stock gains were muted after the China Oct manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 50.8, less than expectations of +0.1 to 51.2 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.19%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday slid to a 3-week low and closed lower: TYZ4 -3.00, FVZ4 -3.50. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Oct ISM manufacturing index, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 posted a new record high.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) this morning is down -1.161 (-0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0032 (+0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.65 (-0.57%). The dollar index on Monday rose to a new 4-1/3 year high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.392 (+0.45%), EUR/USD -0.00409 (-0.33%), USD/JPY +1.724 (+1.54%). Bullish factors included (1) strength in USD/JPY which rallied to a fresh 6-3/4 year high on improved interest rate differentials for the dollar against the yen as the Fed moves toward interest rate increases while the BOJ continues to add stimulus, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a fresh 2-year low on speculation the ECB will boost its stimulus measures after Eurozone Oct manufacturing PMI was revised lower.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -2.89%) this morning is down -$2.11 a barrel (-2.68%) at a 3-year low and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -2.41%) is down -0.0473 (-2.23%) at a 4-year low. Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Monday closed lower with Dec crude at a 2-1/3 year low. Closes: CLZ4 -1.76 (-2.19%), RBZ4 -0.0368 (-1.71%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 4-1/3 year high, (2) the increase in OPEC Oct oil production to 30.074 million bpd, the most in 14 months, and (3) Saudi Arabia’s cut in its price of crude it sells to the U.S. in an attempt to preserve its share of OPEC output.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/04/2014
| US | 0830 ET | Sep trade balance expected -$40.2 billion, Aug -$40.1 billion. |
| 0945 ET | Oct New York ISM expected -1.7 to 62.0, Sep +6.6 to 63.7. | |
| 1000 ET | Sep factory orders expected -0.6%, Aug -10.1%, | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Oct vehicle sales, Sep -2.8% y/y. |
| 2030 ET | Japan Sep labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Oct Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected -0.7 to 63.5, Sep 64.2. |
| 1901 ET | UK Oct BRC shop price index expected -1.7% y/y, Sep -1.8% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Sep PPI expected unch m/m and -1.5% y/y, Aug -0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/04/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Inc | GOOGL US | 3:00 | CEO Eric Schmidt Holds Panel Discussion | ||
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.726 |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.523 |
| Valero Energy Corp | VLO US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.574 |
| Becton Dickinson and Co | BDX US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.657 |
| Health Care REIT Inc | HCN US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.033 |
| Zoetis Inc | ZTS US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.368 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc | REGN US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.574 |
| Michael Kors Holdings Ltd | KORS US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.886 |
| Emerson Electric Co | EMR US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.227 |
| Vulcan Materials Co | VMC US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.522 |
| Expeditors International of Washington Inc | EXPD US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.488 |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.551 |
| HCP Inc | HCP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.763 |
| International Flavors & Fragrances Inc | IFF US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.318 |
| International Paper Co | IP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.881 |
| FirstEnergy Corp | FE US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.876 |
| CVS Health Corp | CVS US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.134 |
| Motorola Solutions Inc | MSI US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.408 |
| Discovery Communications Inc | DISCA US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.43 |
| Entergy Corp | ETR US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.678 |
| Priceline Group Inc/The | PCLN US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 21.075 |
| Intercontinental Exchange Inc | ICE US | 7:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.01 |
| Priceline Group Inc/The | PCLN US | 7:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Motorola Solutions Inc | MSI US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| American International Group Inc | AIG US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Becton Dickinson and Co | BDX US | 8:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Michael Kors Holdings Ltd | KORS US | 8:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Discovery Communications Inc | DISCA US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Zoetis Inc | ZTS US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc | REGN US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Intercontinental Exchange Inc | ICE US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| CVS Health Corp | CVS US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Alcoa Inc | AA US | 9:00 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Marathon Oil Corp | MRO US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Sempra Energy | SRE US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.239 |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | 9:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Tenet Healthcare Corp | THC US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Health Care REIT Inc | HCN US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Vornado Realty Trust | VNO US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| International Flavors & Fragrances Inc | IFF US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| International Paper Co | IP US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Valero Energy Corp | VLO US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Entergy Corp | ETR US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Vulcan Materials Co | VMC US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| HCP Inc | HCP US | 12:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Sempra Energy | SRE US | 13:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| FirstEnergy Corp | FE US | 13:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Emerson Electric Co | EMR US | 14:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| L Brands Inc | LB US | 15:00 | Investor Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| Twenty-First Century Fox Inc | FOXA US | 16:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.364 |
| Twenty-First Century Fox Inc | FOXA US | 16:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| TripAdvisor Inc | TRIP US | 16:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Devon Energy Corp | DVN US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.232 |
| ONEOK Inc | OKE US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.389 |
| Pioneer Natural Resources Co | PXD US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.256 |
| EOG Resources Inc | EOG US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.296 |
| Cimarex Energy Co | XEC US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.513 |
| TripAdvisor Inc | TRIP US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.601 |
| AutoNation Inc | AN US | October 2014 Sales and Revenue Release | 2014 | ||
| Perrigo Co PLC | PRGO US | Annual General Meeting |
