BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, April 6th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.75%) this morning are sharply lower by -14.25 points (-0.69%) due to last Friday's weaker-than-expected March payroll report of +126,000. The European markets are closed today for Easter Monday. Asian stocks today settled mixed with some markets closed for the holiday: Japan -0.19%, Singapore (-0.02%), South Korea (+0.07%), India +0.86%, Turkey -0.40%. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is slightly higher by +0.13 points (+0.13%), while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0016 (+0.15%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.09%). The euro is receiving a boost today after Greece Finance Minister reassured IMF Director Lagarde late last week that Greece will make the 450 million euro payment that is due to the IMF this Thursday (April 9). Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 unch) are down -1.5 ticks.
Commodity prices are up +1.01% this morning due to a rally in energy and metals. May crude oil (CLK15 +2.48%) is up +1.43 (+2.91%) and May gasoline (RBK15 +2.23%) is up +0.0444 (+2.52%) on some short-covering after last Thursday's losses on the Iran agreement and on today's news that Saudi Arabia is raising prices for its Asian customers for May sales. Jun gold (GCM15 +1.48%) is up +18.1 (+1.51%), May silver (SIK15 +2.54%) is up +0.429 (+2.57%), and May copper (HGK15 +1.85%) is up +0.054 (+1.98%). Grain prices this morning are mixed.
Last Friday's March payroll report of +126,000 was substantially weaker than market expectations of +245,000, but much of the weakness was due to bad weather. The payroll report also showed a total of -69,000 in downward revisions for Jan-Feb payrolls. The March unemployment rate of 5.5% was unchanged from Feb's 6-3/4 year low. The U.S. stock exchanges were closed last Friday for Good Friday.
Saudi Arabia raised its pricing for May sales to its Asian customers for the second straight month, suggesting that global oil demand is increasing. Higher Saudi oil prices also reflect higher refining margins in Asia.
Japan's preliminary-Feb leading indicator fell by -0.4 points to 105.1 from 105.5 in Jan, which was weaker than market expectations of -0.2 to 105.3. The preliminary-Feb coincident index fell by -2.8 points to 110.5 from Jan's 113.3, which was a bit weaker than market expectations of -2.6 to 110.7.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key news today includes (1) the March ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected -0.4 to 56.5 after Feb's +0.2 to 56.9), (2) the final-March Markit U.S. services PMI (expected unrevised from early-March at 58.6), and (3) comments by New York Fed President William Dudley on the the national and regional economies at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
There are no U.S. IPO's that scheduled to price or trade today.
Equity conferences this week include: Internet of Things (IoT) Asia 2015 on Wed-Thu, and JP Morgan Spring Fling Conference on Thu

Jun E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -14.25 points (-0.69%) on last Friday's weaker-than-expected March payroll report of +126,000 (versus expectations of +245,000). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.35%, Dow Jones +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.11%. The stock market on Thursday closed higher on the unexpected -20,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to a 2-month low of 268,000 and strength in consumer companies after a +9% jump in CarMax on better-than-expected Q4 earnings.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Barrick Gold's chairman (ABX -1.08%) said the company is open to sell-offs and joint ventures, according to the Financial Times.
• UnitedHealth (UNH -0.08%) shares are expensive at current levels and are ripe for profit taking, according to a weekend Barron's article.
• Monsanto (MON -0.56%) deserves a second look, according to a weekend Barron's article.
• Gabelli reported a 21.51% stake in Myers Industries (MYE +0.62%).
• Cadian Capital reported a 9.1% passive stake in Workiva (WK +0.92%).
• Blue Holdings I reported a 14.3% stake in J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.46%).

MARKET COMMENTS

Jun 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1.5 ticks after closing +24 ticks higher during last Friday's abbreviated electronic session on the weak payroll report. Thursday's closes: TYM5 -6.50, FVM5 -1.75. June 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed lower due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 2-month low and the unexpected increase in U.S. Feb factory orders.
The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.13 points (+0.13%), while EUR/USD is up +0.0016 (+0.15%) and USD/JPY is up +0.11 (+0.09%). The euro is seeing some strength this morning after Greek officials are making assurances that Greece with make this Thursday's 450 million euro payment to the IMF. Thursday's closes: Dollar index -0.749 (-0.76%), EUR/USD +0.01167 (+1.08%), USD/JPY -0.043 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on long liquidation pressure ahead of Friday's payroll report, but gained support from the decline in the U.S. Feb trade deficit to a 5-1/3 year low of -$35.4 billion.
May crude oil is up +1.43 (+2.91%) and May gasoline is up +0.0444 (+2.52%) on some short-covering after last Thursday's losses on the Iran agreement and on today's news that Saudi Arabia is raising prices for its Asian customers for May sales. Thursday's closes: CLK5 -0.95 (-1.90), RBK5 -0.0595 (-3.25%). May crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower on negative carry-over from Wednesday’s +4.77 mln bbl increase in U.S. crude oil inventories to a record high and +2.63 mln bbl increase in Cushing crude oil inventories to a record high 58.9 million bbl. Crude oil prices were also undercut by Thursday’s framework Iranian nuclear agreement, which if finalized by the end-June deadline could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil production and exports by year-end.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/06/2015

US	0830 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the national and regional economy at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center.
	0945 ET	Final-March Markit U.S. services PMI expected unrevised at 58.6, prelim-Mar +1.5 to 58.6. Final-Mar Markit Composite PMI, preliminary-Mar +1.3 to 58.5.
	1000 ET	Mar ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected -0.4 to 56.5, Feb +0.2 to 56.9.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Feb leading index CI expected -0.4 to 105.1, Jan 105.5. Feb coincident index expected -2.6 to 110.7, Jan 113.3.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Apr Sentix investor confidence expected +2.2 to 20.8, Mar 18.6.
	n/a	European markets closed for Easter Monday.
UK	n/a	UK markets closed for Easter Monday.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/06/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
A Schulman Inc	SHLM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.393
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - Midwest- Day 1	Y 2015

Barchart Morning Call 3/4

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 12 mins ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 -0.10%) are down -0.35% on sell-offs in European (-0.33%) and Asian stocks and on the weak Chinese non-manufacturing PMI reported on Saturday. In addition, political comments over the weekend seemed to confirm that there is little change of rolling back the sequester cuts that began last Friday. Most Asian stock markets are trading lower today except for a +0.40% rally in Japan. Commodity prices are little changed on average this morning. April crude oil (CLJ13 +0.09%) is down -0.18%, April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.01%) is down -0.28%, April gold (GCJ13 +0.36%) is up +0.36%, May copper (HGK13 +0.54%) is down -0.07%, and agricultural prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is slightly higher by +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.09%. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 +0.01%) are up 3.5 ticks.
HSBC is down 2.5% in European trading after reporting that its profit fell 5.6% in 2012 after taking a $5.2 billion charge. HSBC was forced to revalue its impaired debt, pay a record penalty for compliance violations, and saw higher costs.
Chinese stocks fell sharply by 4.6% today in response to a new set of property market curbs to cool home prices that hit construction and developer stocks hard. The Chinese government cabinet late Friday announced measures such as higher down payments and mortgage rates on second homes in cities that have experienced steep home price increases. The cabinet also announced a 20% capital gains tax on existing home sales.
Chinese stocks were also hurt by Saturday's news that China's Feb non-manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell by 1.7 points to 54.5 from 56.2 in Jan.
Japanese stocks were supported today and closed up +0.40% after Haruhiko Kuroda, who has been nominated as the new Bank of Japan chief, said he would do whatever it takes to end more than 15 years of deflation.
Japan's Feb monetary base surged to +15.0% y/y from +10.9% y/y in Jan.
The UK Feb construction PMI fell by -1.9 points to 46.8 from 48.7 in Jan and was weaker than market expectations for a +0.3 point increase to 49.0.
The Eurozone Jan PPI of +0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y was closed to expectations and the year-on-year figure of +1.9% was down from +2.1% in Dec.
Italy's 10-year bond yield is up by 4 bp at 4.83% today as Italy's political parties struggle to form a government. Italy's Democratic Party leader Bersani is seeking to form a narrow government targeted on a limited number of legislative initiatives. However, ex-comic Grillo's party continues to say that it will not join any government with the established parties such as those of Bersani, Berlusconi, or Monti. A second election will need to be held if a ruling coalition cannot be found.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The markets this week will focus mainly on the U.S. fiscal situation after last Friday’s sequester went into effect, a heavy schedule of overseas central bank meetings, and Friday U.S. payroll report (expected +160,000). There are only 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tech Data (consensus $1.76), Golar LNG (1.67), Stratasys (0.38), Ascena Retail (0.23), MFA Financial (0.20).

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 -0.10%) this morning are down -5.25 points (-0.35%) on weak European and Asian stocks and the decline in China's non-manufacturing PMI report. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed higher as concerns about federal spending cuts from sequestration were offset by (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb ISM manufacturing index which unexpectedly expanded to its best level in 20-months (+1.1 to 54.2), and (2) the +1.3 point increase to 77.6 in the Feb University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other negatives included (1) carry-over weakness from a fall in European stocks after the Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a record high of 11.9%, and (2) the China Feb PMI manufacturing index which unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 50.1. Closes: S&P 500 +0.23%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.33%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Hecla Mining (HL unch) offerred to buy Aurizon Mines (AZK) for CD$4.75 per share or CD$796 million.
• Stratasys (SSYS +1.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, above the consensus of 38 cents.
• HSBC (HBC -1.10%) reported FY12 EPS of 74 cents, down 20% y/y.
• Carl Icahn reported a 13.6% stake in Herbalife (HLF -0.47%).
• Cubic Corporation (CUB +0.79%) announced that it has received three prime contracts from the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division worth up to $298.5 million to develop courseware in support of the Littoral Combat Ship Train.
• Transocean (RIG -0.29%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, better than consensus of 82 cents.
• Myers Industries (MYE +0.34%) raised its quarterly dividend to 9 cents from 8 cents per share.
• Praxair (PX +0.41%) announced that it expects the impact of the Venezuelan government's devaluation of the bolivar from 4.30 to 6.30 to result in an estimated charge to net income of approximately 8 cents per diluted share in Q1 due primarily to the remeasurement of the local Venezuelan balance sheet to reflect the new official 6.30 exchange rate.
• PDL BioPharma (PDLI -2.66%) reported Q4 EPS of 34 cents, better than consensus of 32 cents.
• Vanguard Natural (VNR -0.14%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 27 cents, weaker than consensus of 34 cents.
• Eastern Insurance Holdings (EIHI -0.16%) increased its quarterly cash dividend to 9 cents per share from 7 cents per share.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 +0.01%) this morning are up 3.5 ticks on some increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in most global stock markets today. June 10-year T-note prices on Friday climbed to a 2-month high and closed higher after Jan personal income fell more-than-expected by the most in 20-years (-3.6%), along with concern the automatic spending cuts that began with Friday's sequestration will slow growth in the U.S. economy. T-note prices fell back from their best levels after U.S. Feb consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing activity unexpectedly strengthened. Closes: TYM3 +7.5, FVM3 +3.0.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is slightly higher by +0.06 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.16%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Friday soared to a 6-1/4 month high and closed higher as the beginning of the U.S. sequestration fueled safe-haven demand into the dollar. EUR/USD slumped to a 2-1/2 month low when the Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a record high of 11.9%. Closes: Dollar index +0.36 (+0.44%), EUR/USD -0.00386 (-0.30%), USD/JPY +1.028 (+1.11%).
April WTI crude oil (CLJ13 +0.09%) this morning is down -0.16 (-0.18%) and April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.01%) is down -0.0087 (-0.28%). Crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed mixed. April crude posted a 2-month low after Chinese Feb manufacturing data expanded less than forecast, the dollar index surged to a 6-1/4 month high, and the U.S. sequestration began. April gasoline recovered from a 1-month low and closed higher, however, after the Feb ISM manufacturing index and Feb consumer confidence unexpectedly strengthened, which may boost fuel demand. Closes: CLJ3 -1.37 (-1.49%), RBJ3 +0.0169 (+0.54%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/04/2013

US	0800 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen speaks at the 2013 NABE conference on ?A View from the Fed.?
	0945 ET	Feb New York ISM , Jan 56.7.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1145 ET	Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker speaks at the 2013 NABE conference on ?Lessons from the Financial Collapse-Learned or Forgotten??
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence expected -4.3, Feb -3.9.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jan PPI expected +0.5% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Feb construction PMI expected +0.3 to 49.0, Jan 48.7.
	1901 ET	UK Feb BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.0%, Jan +1.9% y/y.
JPN	2030 ET	Japan Jan labor cash earnings, Dec -1.7% y/y.
CHI	2045 ET	China Feb HSBC services PMI, Jan 54.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/04/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Tech Data Corp	TECD US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.76
Golar LNG Ltd	GOL NO	Bef-mkt	Y 2012 Earnings Release	Y 2012	1.667
Stratasys Ltd	SSYS US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2012 Earnings Release	Q4 2012	0.383
Stratasys Ltd	SSYS US	8:30	Q4 2012 Earnings Call	Q4 2012
Tech Data Corp	TECD US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Golar LNG Ltd	GOL NO	9:30	Y 2012 Earnings Call	Y 2012
Dominion Resources Inc/VA	D US	10:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
Ascena Retail Group Inc	ASNA US	16:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.228
Ascena Retail Group Inc	ASNA US	16:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO US		VirnetX vs. Cisco Patent-Infringement Trial Begins
AutoNation Inc	AN US		February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013

3 Small Cap S&P 600 stocks with momentum

This morning I used Barchart to find the 3 Small Cap S&P 600 stocks with the best upward momentum and found Myers Industries (MYE), Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) and Tuesday Morning (TUES)

Myers Industries (MYE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 56% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 15.64% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 64.45
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.10
• Recently traded at 16.56 with a 50 day moving average of 14.71

Central Garden & Pet (CENTA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
• 15 new highs and up 17.55% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 71.52%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.74
• Recently traded at 11.05 with a 50 day moving average of 9.70

Tuesday Morning (TUES)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 64% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 9.24% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 59.38%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 3.95
• Recently traded at 4.02 with a 50 day moving average of 3.72

3 Great Small Cap S&P 600 stocks for your watchlists

This morning I used Barchart to screen the Small Cap S&P 600 stocks for the 3 with the steadiest upward momentum and found Myers Industries (MYE), Central Garden & Pet Co (CENTA), and Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT).

Myers Industries  (MYE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 25.28% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 79.59%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.60
• Recently traded at 17.00 with a 50 day moving average of 14.40

Central Garden & Pet Co (CENTA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 12.41% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 80.13%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.30
• Recently traded at 10.51 with a 50 day moving average of 9.56

Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 18.50% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 68.59%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 58.36
• Recently traded at 60.08 with a 50 day moving average of 53.24

3 Small Cap S&P 600 stocks still moving up

This morning I used Barchart to screen the Small Cap S&P 600 stocks to find 3 that still have upward momentum and found Central Garden & Pet (CENTA), Myers Industries (MYE) and Hibbett Sports (HIBB)

Central Garden & Pet (CENTA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 10.65% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 66.90%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.93
• Recently traded at 10.08 with a 50 day moving average of 9.47

Myers Industries (MYE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 16.76% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 75.91
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 15.69
• Recently traded at 16.16 with a 50 day moving average of 14.02

Hibbett Sports (HIBB)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 16% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 4.45% in the last month
• Relative strength Index 52.79%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 52.81
• Recently traded at 53.75 with a 50 day moving average of 51.30