Showing posts with label MEG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MEG. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL /

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.53%) this morning are down -0.52% and European stocks are down -0.37% on giveback from Monday's sharp gains. Energy producers are lower as crude oil slides on speculation a nuclear deal may be reached with Iran, while European deflation concerns remain after Eurozone Mar core CPI rose at the slowest pace on record. On the positive side, the Eurozone Feb unemployment rate fell to a 2-3/4 year low and German Mar retail sales were stronger than expected. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -1.05%, Hong Kong +0.18%, China -0.90%, Taiwan +0.68%, Australia +0.78%, Singapore -0.21%, South Korea +0.46%, India -0.07%. Commodity prices are weaker. May crude oil (CLK15 -2.18%) is down -2.26% on speculation that Western nations are nearing a nuclear deal with Iran that could allow sanctions to be lifted and allow Iran to increase crude exports that would exacerbate a global supply glut. May gasoline (RBK15 -1.82%) is down -1.63% at a 1-week low. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.10%) is down -0.10% at a 1-week low. May copper (HGK15 -1.28%) is down -1.49% at a 1-week low. Agriculture prices are mostly lower ahead of the USDA Quarterly Grain stocks and U.S. 2015 acreage estimates. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.44%) is up +0.51% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.81% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.12%) are up +5 ticks.
The Eurozone Mar CPI estimate fell -0.1% y/y, right on expectations. The Mar core CPI rose +0.6% y/y, less than expectations of +0.7% y/y and matched January's gain as the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Feb unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 11.3% from an upward revised 11.4% in Jan, the lowest in 2-3/4 years.
The German Mar unemployment change fell -15,000 to 2.8 million, better than expectations of -12,000. The Mar unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.4%, better than expectations of no change at 6.5% and the lowest since data for a unified Germany began in 1991.
German Feb retail sales fell -0.5% m/m and rose +3.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y.
UK Mar GfK consumer confidence rose +3 to 4, stronger than expectations of +1 to 2 and the highest in 12-3/4 years.
UK Mar Lloyds business barometer rose +8 to 53, the highest in 6 months.
UK Q4 GDP was revised upward to +0.6% q/q and +3.0% y/y from the originally reported +0.5% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
Japan Feb housing starts fell -3.1% annualized to 905,000, a smaller decline than expectations of -6.8% annualized to 877,000.
Japan Feb vehicle production fell -5.3% y/y, a smaller decline than the -9.7% y/y drop in Jan but still the eighth consecutive month production has declined.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key news today includes (1) today's deadline for a political agreement on the Iran nuclear talks, (2) today's Mar Milwaukee ISM index (expected +1.18 to 51.50 after Feb's -1.28 to 50.32), (3) today's Jan S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index (expected +0.7% m/m and +4.6% y/y after Dec's +0.87% m/m and +4.46% y/y), (4) today's Mar Chicago PMI (expected +6.0 to 51.8 after Feb's -13.6 to 45.8), (5) today's Mar U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (expected unchanged at 96.4 after Feb's -7.4 to 96.4), and (6) comments by four different Fed officials.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's that price today include: GoDaddy (GDDY), Infraredx (REDX), Wowo (WOWO), AutoGenomics (AGMX), Mylan (MYL), Media General (MEG), CyrusOne (CONE), Insmed (INSM). There are U.S. IPO's that start trading today.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Auto Summit on Wed, DUG Bakken and Niobrara Unconventional Oil Conference on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Utilities Conference on Wed, New York Interational Auto Show-Press Days on Wed, and Goldman Sachs Biosimilars Conference on Thu.





OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Schlumberger (SLB +1.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
Credit Suisse reiterates its 'Outperform' rating on UnitedHealth (UNH +2.53%) and raised its price target on the stock to $135 from $120.
Reliance Steel (RS +2.83%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
D.R. Horton (DHI +2.11%) was upgraded to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna.
SAIC (SAIC +2.47%) reported Q4 EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 71 cents.
Priceline (PCLN +1.29%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Horizon Pharma (HZNP +18.20%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
Sensient (SXT +1.37%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at BB&T with a price target of $81.
Tesla (TSLA +3.01%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that March China sales were up 130%-150% month-over-month.
Gabelli reported a 5.56% stake in Jason Industries (JASN +0.29%) .
Teck Resources (TCK +10.17%) slid nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it said it is not in talks with Antofagasta regarding a possible merger.
HCP (HCP +3.94%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.53%) this morning are down -10.75 points (-0.52%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.22%, Dow Jones +1.49%, Nasdaq +1.15%. The S&P 500 index on Monday rallied sharply on support from a rally in Chinese stocks and hopes for another Chinese interest rate cut or other stimulus measures after China's central bank chief call for more measures to spur growth. Stocks also received a boost from the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb pending home sales report (+3.1% m/m and +12.0% y/y) and M&A activity with acquisitions announced by UnitedHealth and Teva Pharma.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.12%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM5 -3.00, FVM5 -0.75. T-note prices on Monday closed mildly lower due to the stronger-than-expected Feb core PCE deflator report of +1.4% y/y and the U.S. pending home sales report of +3.1% m/m. T-notes were also undercut by reduced safe-haven demand caused by the rally in stocks.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.44%) this morning is up +0.496 (+0.51%) at a 1-wwek high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0088 (-0.81%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20 (-0.17%). Monday's closes: Dollar index +0.684 (+0.70%), EUR/USD -0.00547 (-0.50%), USD/JPY +0.966 (+0.81%). The dollar index rallied fairly sharply on Monday due to the stronger-than-expected U.S. pending home sales report, which indicates some signs of life in the housing market that could accelerate a Fed interest rate cut.
May WTI crude oil (CLK15 -2.18%) this morning is down -$1.10 a barrel (-2.26%) and May gasoline (RBK15 -1.82%) is down -0.0293 (-1.63%) at a 1-week low. Monday's closes: CLK5 -0.19 (-0.39), RBK5 -0.0025 (-0.14%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed mildly lower due to the rally in the dollar and the remote chance that a last-minute agreement might be reached on Iran's nuclear program. Crude oil received some underlying support from the rally in global stocks and on hopes for additional Chinese stimulus.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/31/2015
US0800 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerces Spring Regional Forum.
0850 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers welcoming address at the Atlanta Feds financial markets conference.
0900 ETCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester moderates a panel at the Atlanta Feds financial markets conference on the Future of Banks: Will Commercial Banks Remain Central to the Financial System?
0900 ETMar Milwaukee ISM expected +1.18 to 51.50, Feb -1.28 to 50.32.
0900 ETJan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.7% m/m and +4.6% y/y, Dec +0.87% m/m and +4.46% y/y.
0945 ETMar Chicago PMI expected +6.0 to 51.8, Feb -13.6 to 45.8.
1000 ETMar consumer confidence index (Conference Board) expected unchanged at 96.4, Feb -7.4 to 96.4.
1200 ETUSDA Q1 Quarterly Grain Stocks and prospective planting acreage.
1500 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks at the Council for Economic Education on the Update from the Fed.
JPN0000 ETJapan Feb vehicle production, Jan -9.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Feb housing starts expected -6.8% annualized to 877,000, Jan -13.0% annualized to 864,000.
0100 ETJapan Feb construction orders, Jan +27.5% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Q1 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected +2 to 14, Q4 12.
2135 ETRevised Japan Mar Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, previous -1.2 to 50.4.
GER0200 ETGerman Feb retail sales expected -0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y, Jan +2.3% m/m and +5.3% y/y.
0355 ETGerman Mar unemployment change expected -12,000, Feb -20,000. Mar unemployment rate expected unch at 6.5%.
UK0430 ETRevised UK Q4 GDP, previous +0.5% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jan index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +0.8% 3-mo/3-mo, Dec +0.6% m/m and +0.8% 3-mo/3-mo.
0430 ETUK Mar Lloyds business barometer, Feb -7 to 45.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Mar CPI estimate expected -0.1% y/y, Feb -0.3% y/y. Mar core CPI expected +0.7% y/y, Feb +0.7% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Feb unemployment rate expected unch at 11.2%.
CHI2100 ETChina Mar manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 49.7, Feb +0.1 to 49.9. Mar non-manufacturing PMI, Feb +0.2 to 53.9.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/31/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US7:30Analyst DayY 2015
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD US10:00Investor DayY 2015
Alliant Energy CorpLNT USInvestor Meeting - BostonY 2015
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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/31

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.12% and European stocks are up +0.25% in thin holiday trade. Many European equity markets close early today and U.S. and all European markets will be closed tomorrow for New Year's day. Greek sovereign-debt risks remain elevated as the Greek 10-year bond yield climbed to a 1-1/4 year high of 9.745% on concern that elections on Jan 25 may give power to the anti-austerity Syriza party that seeks to renegotiate Greek’s debt. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan and South Korea closed for holiday, Hong Kong +0.44%, China +2.20%, Taiwan +0.42%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore -0.03%, India +0.35%. China's Shanghai Stock Index rallied up to a 4-3/4 year high on speculation the government will boost stimulus measures along with increased M&A activity after China CNR Corp. and CSR Corp., China's biggest train makers, agreed to merge. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.18%) is down -1.77%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -3.17%) is down -2.35% at a 5-1/2 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.18%) is down -0.27%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.53%) is down -0.54%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.16%) are up +7.5 ticks at a 1-week high.
Comments from ECB Chief Economist Praet signal the ECB may be closer to implementing QE when he said the Eurozone could see "negative inflation during a substantial part of 2015" amid a slide in crude prices. He added that "Inflation expectations are extremely fragile" and "the risk of second-round effects seems to be greater today than it was in the past" and that the Governing Council "cannot simply look through that."
The China Dec HSBC manufacturing PMI was unexpectedly revised higher to 49.6, better than expectations of unch at 49.5 but still the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +10,000 to 290,000, exactly reversing last week’s decline of -10,000 to 280,000.  Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -38,000 to 2.365 million, more than reversing last week’s increase of +25,000 to 2.403 million.  Today’s Dec Chicago PMI report is expected to fall -0.8 points to 60.0, adding to November’s sharp decline of -5.4 to 60.8 from October’s 3-3/4 year high of 66.2.  Today’s Nov pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m, reversing part of the -1.1% decline seen in October.  None of the Russell 3000 companies report earnings today.  There are no equity conferences this week.  
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Stifel keeps a 'Buy' rating on share of Monsanto (MON -0.28%) and said that seed prices ae likely to rise in 2015.
GrubHub (GRUB -0.11%) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Barrington.
Stifel keeps a 'Buy' rating on Cempra (CEMP +2.59%) and raised its price target on the stock to $33 from $22.
According to the NY Post, American Apparel (APP -0.93%) is said to be delaying payments to its suppliers.
Globalstar (GSAT -5.76%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell 12.37 million shares of common stock for holders.
Gabelli reported a 7.91% stake in Media General (MEG -1.84%) .
Perion Network (PERI unch) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Chardan.
Handy & Harman (HNH +3.80%) submitted a proposal to acquire JPS Industries (JPST +7.80%) for $10 per share.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.13%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq -0.70%. Negative factors included (1) the +1.6 point increase in U.S. Dec consumer confidence (Conference Board) to 91.0, less than expectations of +5.2 to 93.9, (2) high valuation levels that prompted year-end profit taking and long liquidation in stocks with the S&P 500's forward P/E at a 4-1/2 year high of 17.4.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +7.5 ticks at a 1-week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYH5 +6.0, FVH5 +4.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a drop in the German 10-year bund yield to a record low 0.535% on Greek debt concerns, and (2) a slide in stocks that boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.097 (-0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted a new 8-1/2 year high but fell back and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.199 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -1.197 (-0.99%). The main bearish factor was weakness in USD/JPY which fell to a 1-week low after a slide in stocks boosted the safe haven demand for the yen. Gains in EUR/USD were limited on European sovereign debt risks after the Greek 10-year bond yield rose to a 1-1/4 year high of 9.628% on concern that elections on Jan 25 that may give power to the anti-austerity Syriza party that seeks to renegotiate Greek’s debt.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.18%) this morning is down -96 cents (-1.77%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -3.17%) is down -0.0345 (-2.35%) at a fresh 5-1/2 year low. Feb crude and Feb gasoline prices on Tuesday posted 5-1/2 year lows but recovered and closed higher. Closes: CLG5 +0.51 (+0.95%), RBG5 +0.0005 (+0.03%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) a decline in Libyan oil production as data from Energy Aspects Ltd. stated Libya's oil output has fallen to below 300,000 bpd, a 7-month low, after militants attacked oil facilities. Gains were limited on concern that Wednesday's EIA data will show U.S. supplies remain ample with inventories near a 6-month high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/31/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.9% with purchase sub-index +1.3% and refi sub-index +1.1%.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +10,000 to 290,000, previous -10,000 to 280,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -38,000 to 2.365 million, previous +25,000 to 2.403 million.
0900 ETDec Milwaukee ISM expected -5.25 to 65.00, Nov +4.64 to 70.25.
0945 ETDec Chicago PMI expected -0.8 to 60.0, Nov -5.4 to 60.8.
1000 ETNov pending home sales expected +0.5% m/m and +3.6% y/y, Oct -1.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
CHI2000 ETChina Dec manufacturing PMI expected -0.3 to 50.0, Nov -0.5 to 50.3.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/31/2014
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Unifi IncUFI USAft-mktUnifi Inc. Replaces SWS Group Inc. in S&P SmallCap 600
Central Pacific Financial CorpCPF USAft-mktCentral Pacific Financial Replaces TriQuint Semiconductor in S&P SmallCap 600
SWS Group IncSWS USAft-mktUnifi Inc. Replaces SWS Group Inc. in S&P SmallCap 600
TriQuint Semiconductor IncTQNT USAft-mktCentral Pacific Financial Replaces TriQuint Semiconductor in S&P SmallCap 600
Remy International IncREMY USSpecial Meeting - M&A Vote
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