Morning Call 6/14

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Wed Jun 14, 6:35AM CDT

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 +0.12%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are up +0.81% as strength in technology stocks leads the overall market higher. Optimism in the global economy is another positive for equity prices after the IMF raised its China 2017 GDP estimate to 6.7% from a 6.6% estimate in Apr. European stocks also found support after data showed Eurozone Q1 employment rose +1.5% y/y, the largest increase in 9-years. Weakness in energy stocks limited gains in the overall market as Jul WTI crude oil (CLN17 -1.23%) slid -1.08% after API data late Tuesday showed U.S. crude inventories rose +2.75 million bbl last week. Trading activity was light ahead of the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to raise the fed funds target range by 25 bp, but the markets will look to future Fed guidance and when it may begin to reduce its balance sheet. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.08%, Hong Kong +0.09%, China -0.73%, Taiwan -0.55%, Australia +1.06%, Singapore -0.13%, South Korea -0.02%, India +0.17%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 +0.02%) are up +3 ticks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its China 2017 GDP estimate to 6.7% from a 6.6% estimate in Apr.

China May industrial production rose +6.5% y/y, unch from Apr and stronger than expectations of +6.4% y/y.

Eurozone Apr industrial production rose +0.5% m/m and +1.4% y/y, right on expectations.

Eurozone Q1 employment rose +0.4% q/q and +1.5% y/y with the +1.5% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 9 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +7.1% with purchase sub-index +10.0% and refi sub-index +3.4%), (2) May CPI (expected unch m/m and +2.0% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y) and May CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y), (3) May retail sales (expected +0.1% and +0.1% ex autos, Apr +0.4% and +0.3% ex autos), (4) Apr business inventories (expected -0.1%, Mar +0.2%), (5) FOMC announces interest rate decision with expected +25 bp increase in the fed funds target range to 1.00%-1.25%, (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Notable Russell 2000 earnings reports today include: Jabil (consensus $0.29).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Boston Omaha (BOMN), Avenue Therapeutics (ATXI).

Equity conferences: Citi Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, William Blair & Company Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank dbAccess Global Consumer Conference on Tue-Thu, Golddman Sachs European Payment Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Wed, Vertical Research Partners Materials Conference on Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Technology Investor Day on Wed, Drexel Hamilton Aerospace & Defense Conference on Thu, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co Industrials Conference on Thu, NASDAQ Investor Program on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Restaurant Brands International (QSR +0.68%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Oppenheimer.

Infinera (INFN +1.20%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at MKM Partners with a price target of $14.

Starbucks (SBUX -0.60%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Wedbush.

HMS Holdings (HMSY +0.31%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' rating at Cantor Fitzgerald with a 12-month target price of $23.

Janus Henderson Group PLC (JHG +1.39%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' rating at Morgan Stanley.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN +1.05%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it announced that Biogen CFO Paul Clancy will be the new CFO at Alexion effective July 31. Biogen (BIIB -0.26%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading on the news.

Loxo Oncology (LOXO -3.66%) lost over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering, although no size was given.

H&R Block (HRB +2.08%) jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $3.76, better than consensus of $3.53.

FTD Cos (FTD -3.51%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at DA Davidson with a 12-month target price of $23.

Gladstone Investment Corp (GAIN +0.33%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Wedbush with a 12-month target price of $10.

Sequans Communications SA (SQNS unch) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer newly issued American Depositary Shares (ADSs) representing ordinary shares in an underwritten public offering, although no size was given.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 +0.12%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.11%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.45%, Dow Jones +0.44%, Nasdaq +0.76%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on a rebound in technology stocks after 2 days of sharp losses and on strength in energy stocks after crude prices rose +0.82%. Gains were limited ahead of the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed is expected to raise its fed funds rate target by 25 bp.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU17 +0.02%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYU7 +1.50, FVU7 unch. Sep 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on weaker inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 7-month low. There was also decent demand for the Treasury's $12 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.32, above the 12-auction average of 2.30. T-note prices were undercut by rising producer price pressures after U.S. May core PPI rose +2.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.9% y/y and the largest year-on-year increase in 3 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.07 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0010 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.18%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar index -0.163 (-0.17%), EUR/USD +0.0008 (+0.07%), USD/JPY +0.12 (+0.11%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on reduced inflation expectations that may slow the pace of Fed tightening after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate dropped to a 7-month low.

Jul WTI crude oil prices (CLN17 -1.23%) this morning are down -50 cents (-1.08%) and July gasoline (RBN17 -1.25%) is -0.0165 (-1.10%). Tuesday's closes: Jul crude +0.38 (+0.82%), Jul gasoline +0.0115 (+0.77%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA data will show U.S. crude inventories fell -2.4 million bbl. Crude oil prices were undercut by speculation that increased U.S. oil production will offset OPEC crude production cuts and the projection from the EIA for U.S. Jul shale oil output to increase by +127,000 bpd.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/14/2017

		Wednesday, June 14
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +7.1% with purchase sub-index +10.0% and refi sub-index +3.4%.
	0830 ET	May CPI expected unch m/m and +2.0% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y. May CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
	0830 ET	May retail sales expected unch and +0.2% ex autos, Apr +0.4% and +0.3% ex autos.
	1000 ET	Apr business inventories expected -0.2%, Mar +0.2%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1400 ET	FOMC announces interest rate decision, expected +25 bp increase in the fed funds target range to 1.00%-1.25%.
	1430 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds news conference following FOMC meeting.
		Thursday, June 15
US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 241,000, previous -10,000 to 245,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +6,000 to 1.923 million, previous -2,000 to 1.917 million.
	0830 ET	Jun Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +6.0 to 5.0, May -6.2 to -1.0.
	0830 ET	Jun Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -13.8 to 25.0, May +16.8 to 38.8.
	0830 ET	May import price index expected -0.1% m/m, Apr +0.5% and +0.4% ex petroleum.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0915 ET	May industrial production expected +0.2%, Apr +1.0%. May manufacturing production expected +0.1%, Apr +1.0%. May capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 76.8%, Apr +0.5 to 76.7%.
	1000 ET	Jun NAHB housing market index expected unch at 70, May +2 to 70.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 30-year TIPS to be auctioned Jun 22 (previous $7 billion).

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/14/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
American Airlines Group Inc	AAL US	09:00	Annual General Meeting
Target Corp	TGT US	09:00	Annual General Meeting
FNF Group	FNF US	10:00	Annual General Meeting
Zillow Group Inc	ZG US	11:00	Annual General Meeting
Black Knight Financial Services Inc	BKFS US		Annual General Meeting
Caterpillar Inc	CAT US		Annual General Meeting
Celgene Corp	CELG US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting
Mattel Inc	MAT US	13:00	Investor Day
Square Inc	SQ US	16:00	Annual General Meeting
Jabil Inc	JBL US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	0.289
Jabil Inc	JBL US	16:30	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Autodesk Inc	ADSK US	18:00	Annual General Meeting

MORNING CALL 3/3

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Fri Mar 3, 6:41AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.14%) this morning are down -0.16% ahead of speeches today from Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer that may add to the recent hawkish Fed commentary that increases the chances of a Fed rate hike later this month. European stocks are up +0.46% at a 1-1/4 year high on reduced political risks in France after polls showed French Presidential candidate Macron jumped ahead of anti-euro candidate Le Pen for the first time. The Odoxa survey of first-round voting intentions showed Macron's support rose +2 points to 27% and Le Pen's support fell -1.5 points to 25.5%. The easing of French political risks reduced safe-haven demand for German bunds which fell to a 2-week low and for gold as Apr COMEX gold (GCJ17 -0.49%) dropped -0.42% to a 2-week low. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -0.49%, Hong Kong -0.74%, China -0.36%, Taiwan -0.45%, Australia -0.81%, Singapore -0.45%, South Korea -1.06%, India -0.03%. Fed rate hike fears undercut Asian stocks with China's Shanghai Composite falling to a 1-1/2 week low. Chinese stocks will look to headlines from the annual Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body of political elites and business executives, that begins today in Beijing.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) is down -0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.33%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08%.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 -0.10%) are down -2 ticks.

The Japan Feb consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 43.1, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 43.5.

Japan Jan national CPI rose +0.4% y/y, right on expectations. Jan national CPI ex-fresh food rose +0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of unch y/y. Jan national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.2% y/y, right on expectations.

Eurozone Jan retail sales of -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y was weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) revised Feb Markit services PMI (expected +0.1 to 54.0, prelim-Feb -1.7 to 53.9), (2) Feb ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 56.5, Jan -0.1 to 56.5), (3) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voter) and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) speak on a panel at the Chicago Booth School’s Monetary policy forum in New York, (4) Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on innovation, technology and the payment system at a roundtable hosted by Yale Law School on blockchain: the future of finance and capital markets, (5) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers a speech at the Chicago Booth School’s Monetary policy forum in New York, (6) Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the economic outlook at an Executive Club of Chicago event.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: AdvanSix.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: Simmons Energy Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

GoPro (GPRO -1.59%) slipped nearly 2% in pre-market trading after Citigroup initiated a 'Sell' on the stock with a target price of $8 citing a 'deteriorating neighborhood.'

Costco Wholesale (COST +0.07%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.17, below consensus of $1.36,

Autodesk (ADSK -1.81%) lost nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $2.00 billion to $2.05 billion, weaker than consensus of $2.20 billion.

Guidewire Software (GWRE -0.14%) rose almost 3% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $491 million-$499 million, higher than consensus of $489.4 million.

American Outdoor Brands (AOBC -0.36%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year net sales of $874 million to $894 million, below consensus of $921.6 million.

Wingstop (WING -1.30%) dropped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 system-wide domestic comparable sales rose +1.0%, weaker than consensus of +3.5%.

Habit Restaurants (HABT +0.36%) climbed 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, above consensus of 3 cents.

Nutanix (NTNX +1.27%) plunged nearly 15% in after-hours trading after it said expects a Q3 adjusted loss of -45 cents to -48 cents a share, wider than consensus of -35 cents.

Marvel Technology (MRVL -0.50%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 22 cents, higher than consensus of 19 cents, and then said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS continuing operations of 19 cents to 23 cents, better than consensus of 17 cents,

HMS Holdings (HMSY -1.09%) tumbled over 8% in after-hours trading after it delayed its 10-K filing when the company's auditor identified what it believes is a material weakness over financial reporting related to its internal controls.

VTTI Energy Partners LP (VTTI -0.27%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it received a buyout offer from VTTI B.V. for $18.75 a unit.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR +4.20%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary offering of 10 million shares of common stock.

Immersion (IMMR -4.13%) dropped over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted loss of -27 cents a share, wider than consensus of -17 cents, and then said it sees 2017 revenue of $38 million-$42 million, below consensus of $54.1 million.

Bill Barrett (BBG +0.18%) slumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted loss of -18 cents a share, wider than consensus of -12 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.14%) this morning are down -3,75 points (-0.16%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.59%, Dow Jones -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.51%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed lower on long liquidation in stocks after hawkish comments from Fed Governor Powell increased the chances of a Fed interest rate increase at this month's FOMC meeting when he said the case for a rate increase at this month's FOMC meeting has "come together." There was also weakness in energy producing stocks after crude oil prices fell -2.27% to a 3-week low. On the positive side, U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell -19,000 to 223,000, better than expectations of +1,000 to 245,000 and the fewest in 44 years.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 -0.10%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYM7 -7.00, FVM7 -6.00. Jun 10-year T-notes on Thursday dropped to a 2-week low and closed lower on hawkish comments from Fed Governor Powell who said the case for a rate increase in March has "come together, and I don't think it's on the table for discussion."

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) this morning is down -0.21 (-0.21%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0035 (+0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09 (+0.08%). Thursday's closes: Dollar index +0.42 (+0.41%), EUR/USD -0.0040 (-0.38%), USD/JPY +0.68 (+0.60%). The dollar index on Thursday climbed to a 1-1/2 month high and settled higher on the unexpected drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 44-year low and the increase in the 10-year T-note yield to a 2-week high, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Apr WTI crude oil prices (CLJ17 +0.23%) this morning are up +13 cents (+0.25%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ17 +0.76%) is +0.0127 (+0.77%). Thursday's closes: Apr crude -1.22 (-2.27%), Apr gasoline -0.0347 (-2.07%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed lower with Apr crude at a 3-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 month high and by negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data that showed a +0.3% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Feb 24 to 9.032 million bpd, an 11-month high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/03/2017

		Friday, Mar 3
US	0945 ET	Revised Feb Markit services PMI expected +0.1 to 54.0, prelim-Feb -1.7 to 53.9. Revised Feb Markit composite PMI, prelim-Feb -1.5 to 54.3.
	1000 ET	Feb ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected unch at 56.5, Jan -0.1 to 56.5.
	1015 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voter) and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) speak on a panel at the Chicago Booth Schools Monetary policy forum in New York.
	1215 ET	Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on innovation, technology and the payment system at a roundtable hosted by Yale Law School on blockchain: the future of finance and capital markets.
	1230 ET	Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers a speech at the Chicago Booth Schools Monetary policy forum in New York.
	1300 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the economic outlook at an Executive Club of Chicago event.
		Mon, Mar 6
US	1000 ET	Jan factory orders expected +1.0%, Dec +1.3% and +2.1% ex transportations.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1500 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) speaks at the NABE conference in Washington, D.C.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/03/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	9:00	Investor Relations Conference Call
Staples Inc	SPLS US		Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 2017	0.255

Barchart Morning Call 2-17

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 39 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.33% and Mar S&Ps up +1.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are slightly weaker, while credit default swaps to insure European government debt fell on optimism Greece will get a bailout. According to people familiar with the talks, European governments are considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the ECB's sale of its Greek debt holdings to plug a financing gap in the second Greek bailout. Another positive for European stocks and the euro is reduced funding concerns for European banks after the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of banks' reluctance to lend that is the difference between the euro interbank offered rate and overnight indexed swaps, fell to 69 bp, a 5-1/2 month low. The British pound climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar after Jan U.K. retail ex auto fuel unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of a -0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y decline.
• Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.58%, China +0.04%, Australia +0.34%, South Korea +1.50%, India +0.75%. The Japanese yen extended its recent slide as it fell to a fresh 3-1/2 month low against the dollar and fueled a rally in stocks with the Nikkei 225 Stock Index climbing to its best level in 6-1/2 months. Strength in U.S. economic data also boosted stocks that export to the U.S., led by a 2.4% gain for Honda Motor. Chinese stocks closed little changed as weakness in bank stocks limited gains. The China Banking Regulatory Commission reported that Q4 China commercial banks' bad loans rose 20.1 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) to 427.9 billion yuan as of Dec 31 as non-performing loans accounted for 0.96% of total lending, up from 0.95% in Q3. Chinese housing developers and builders also weakened after Qin Hong, head of the policy research center under the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said China will "unwaveringly" maintain property curbs in both the long and short term.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.40 points. The US stock market on Thursday settled higher on better-than-estimated U.S. economic data along with increased optimism over Greek bailout efforts: Dow Jones +0.96%, S&P 500 +1.10%, Nasdaq Composite +1.51%. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to a nearly 4-year low (-13,000 to 348,000 versus expectations of +7,000 to 365,000), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan U.S. housing starts (+1.5% to 699,000 versus expectations of +2.7% to 675,000), (3) the greater-than-expected increase in the Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (+2.9 to 10.2 versus expectations of +1.7 to 9.0), (4) the action by Congress to agree on a plan to extend a payroll tax cut and expanded unemployment benefits through the rest of the year, and (5) the report from the German newspaper Die Welt that the ECB is exchanging Greek bonds for new securities and using the profits to plug a financing gap in the second bailout for Greece, which eases concern that Greece will get its aid package on time to avoid default.
• Bearish factors included (1) the warning from Moody's Investors Service that ratings for global banks may be cut as lenders worldwide face risks of rising funding costs due to the European debt crisis and (2) global economic concerns after China's commerce industry said the outlook for foreign investment in China and trade this year is "grim" along with the ECB's monthly report that said forecasters lowered their 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to a contraction of -0.1% from a Nov projection of +0.8% growth, while they cut their 2013 GDP forecast to 1.1% from a Nov estimate of 1.6%.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) climbed 5.5% in European trading after the largest maker of chipmaking equipment forecast Q2 profit of 20 cents to 28 cents a share, better than analysts' estimates of 16 cents on average.
• Dell (DELL) fell 1% in European trading after the stock was cut to "neutral" from "outperform" at Robert W Baird. & Co.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -3 ticks. T-note prices on Thursday settled lower after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced European debt concerns limited the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYH2 -19.0, FVH2 -11.5, EDM2 -2.0. Bearish factors Thursday included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to a nearly 4-year low (-13,000 to 348,000 versus expectations of +7,000 to 365,000), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan core PPI (+0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y), (3) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan U.S. housing starts (+1.5% to 699,000 versus expectations of +2.7% to 675,000), (4) the greater-than-expected increase in the Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (+2.9 to 10.2 versus expectations of +1.7 to 9.0), and (5) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the German newspaper Die Welt reported that the ECB is exchanging Greek bonds for new securities, which eases concern that Greece will get its second bailout. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Moody's warned that ratings for global banks may be cut as lenders worldwide face risks of rising funding costs due to the European debt crisis and (2) global economic concerns after China's commerce industry said the outlook for foreign investment in China and trade this year is "grim" and after the ECB's monthly report said forecasters lowered their 2012 and 2013 Euro-Zone GDP forecasts.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen +0.24 yen and the euro/dollar +0.32 cents. The dollar index on Thursday retreated from a 3-week high and finished lower after a German newspaper reported the ECB is swapping its 50 billion euros of Greek bond holdings for new Greek bonds: Dollar Index -0.322, USDJPY +0.498, EURUSD +0.00642. Bearish factors included (1) a rebound in the euro which recovered from a 3-week low against the dollar and closed higher after Germany's Die Welt reported that the ECB is swapping its 50 billion euros of Greek bond holdings at their nominal value for a profit and will distribute the profits to national governments and on into the debt crisis bailout program and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as the stock market rallied. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after Moody's Investors Service warned that ratings for global banks may be cut as lenders worldwide face risks of rising funding costs due to the European debt crisis, (2) weakness in the yen which fell to a 3-1/2 month low against the dollar as a rally in stocks reduced its safe-haven demand, and (3) the stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on weekly jobless claims, Jan housing starts and the Feb Philadelphia ed manufacturing index, which signals economic strength and is dollar supportive.
• Mar crude oil prices this morning are up +45 cents a barrel and Mar gasoline is -0.59 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday traded on either side of unchanged and finished higher as a rally in the dollar was offset by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that suggests energy demand may strengthen: CLH12 +$0.51, RBH +4.04. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to near a 4-year low along with the stronger-than-expected Jan housing starts and Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which indicate economic strength that is supportive for energy demand and (2) strength in gasoline on concern that more refinery outages will threaten the supply of gasoline for the summer driving season after Exxon Mobile took its Beaumont, Texas refinery offline for repairs and Marathon Petroleum shut its Garyville, Louisiana plant after a power failure. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the statement from China's commerce industry that said the outlook for foreign investment in China and trade this year is "grim," which is negative for fuel demand, and (3) the monthly report from the ECB that said forecasters lowered their 2012 and 2013 Euro-Zone GDP forecasts, which signals reduced energy consumption in Europe.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): VTR-Ventas (BEST earnings consensus $0.33), HNZ-HJ Heinz (0.85), CPB-Campbell Soup (0.62), EEP-Enbride Energy Partners LP (0.38), CEG-Constellation Energy Group (0.67), DLR-Digital Realty Trust (0.30), LECO-Lincoln Electric Holdings (0.63), AGP-Amerigroup (0.62), HMSY-HMS Holdings (0.17), CKH-SEACOR Holdings (1.28), LPNT-LifePoint Hospitals (0.76), HGIC-Harleysville Group (0.65), GMLP-Golar LNG Partners LP (0.47), B-Barnes Group (0.32), POL-PolyOne (0.14), PPC-Pilgrim's Pride (-0.30).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 2/17/12
United States
0830 ET	Jan CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Dec unchanged m/m and +3.0% y/y. Jan CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
1000 ET	Jan leading indicators expected +0.5%, Dec +0.4%.
Germany
0200 ET	Jan German producer prices expected +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Dec -0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Jan U.K. retail sales ex auto fuel expected -0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Dec +0.6% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
0430 ET	Jan U.K. retail sales with auto fuel expected -0.3% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Dec +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Dec Euro-Zone construction output, Nov +0.8% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
Canada
0700 ET	Jan Canada CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Dec -0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
0700 ET	Jan Bank of Canada core CPI expected unchanged m/m and +1.9% y/y, Dec -0.5% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
0830 ET	Jan Canada leading indicators expected +0.6% m/m, Dec +0.8% m/m.

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