MORNING CALL 2/24

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Fri Feb 24, 6:37AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.41%) are down -0.47% and European stocks are down -1.19%. Uncertainty ahead of France's presidential election in April and Tuesday's speech to Congress from President Trump has fueled long liquidation in stocks. European political risks have increased as far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Penn, who wants to take France out of the EU, is seen gaining in polls, while President Trump promised something "phenomenal" with respect to tax reform three weeks ago, and his every word will be parsed when he addresses House and Senate lawmakers on Tuesday. The slide in equity markets has boosted the price of gold with Apr COMEX gold (GCJ17 +0.53%) up +0.59% to a 3-1/4 month high. Government bonds are also higher on increased safe-haven demand as German bunds climbed to a 1-1/2 month high and T-notes are at a 2-week high. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.45%, Hong Kong -0.62%, China +0.06%, Taiwan -0.19%, Australia -0.79%, Singapore -0.65%, South Korea -0.92%, India closed for holiday. A stronger yen undercut Japanese stocks as USD/JPY tumbled to a 2-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26% at a 2-week low.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 +0.16%) are up +6 ticks at a 2-week high.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jan new home sales (expected +6.3% to 570,000, Dec -10.4% to 536,000), (2) revised-Feb University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index (expected +0.3 to 96.0, prelim-Feb -2.8 to 95.7), (3) USDA weekly Export Sales, (4) USDA Jan Cattle on Feed.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Foot Locker (consensus $1.32), Public Service Enterprise Group (0.53), Pinnacle West Capital (0.48), Cabot Oil & Gas (0.01).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: CAGNY Investor Conference on Tue-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Goldman Sachs (GS -0.21%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Berenberg with a price target of $190.

Incyte (INCY +0.49%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Spectra Energy in the S&P 500 at the open of trading on Tuesday, February 28.

Nordstrom (JWN -3.11%) rallied 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.37, higher than consensus of $1.15.

Stamps.com (STMP -0.52%) fell almost 3% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year adjusted EPS of $6.00-$7.00, weaker than consensus of $7.91

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE -0.48%) dropped 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 net revenue of $11.4 billion, weaker than consensus of $12.1 billion, and said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS of 41 cents-45 cents, below consensus of 47 cents.

B&G Foods (BGS -1.37%) slid 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 29 cents, weaker than consensus of 40 cents.

RH US (RH -3.15%) surged 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, above consensus of 66 cents.

MercadoLibre (MELI -0.29%) gained 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 net revenue of $256.3 million, better than consensus of $250 million.

Universal Display (OLED -5.33%) jumped nearly 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 55 cents, above consensus of 43 cents.

Baidu (BIDU -0.74%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted profit for ADS of $1.91, well above consensus of $1.09.

Acacia Communications (ACIA +1.94%) tumbled 11% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS of 63 cents-70 cents, weaker than consensus of 78 cents.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT -0.76%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Point72 Asset Management said it raised its passive stake in the company to 5.2% from 2.5%.

Zoe's Kitchen (ZOES -1.49%) sank 11% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $325 million-$327 million, below consensus of $329.1 million.

Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX +1.23%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it received clearance from the FDA to market its PhenoTest BC Kit as the first test to identify organisms that cause bloodstream infections and provide information on antibiotic sensitivity.

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS -0.47%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC +1.41%) fell over 8% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS of 45 cents-47 cents, below consensus of 56 cents, and then lowered guidance on full-year EPS to $2.40-$2.50, weaker than consensus of $2.53.

Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP -6.38%) slid over 7% in after-hours trading after it announced a primary offering of 20.5 million common units.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.41%) this morning are down -11.00 points (-0.47%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.04%, Dow Jones +0.17%, Nasdaq -0.37%. The S&P 500 on Thursday posted a new record high and closed higher on strength in energy producing stocks after the price of crude oil rose +1.44% to a 1-1/2 month high and on a rally in mining stocks after the price of gold and silver climbed to 3-1/4 month highs. Stocks were undercut by weakness in technology stocks and by hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who said that "two or three 25 bp rate hikes are likely this year as long as the economy remains on the track it is on."

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 +0.16%) this morning are up +6 ticks at a 2-week high. Thursday's closes: TYH7 +9.00, FVH7 +6.50. Mar 10-year T-notes on Thursday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-1/2 month high on increased safe-haven demand due to political risks in France and on short-covering at the conclusion of this week's T-note auctions.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.24 (-0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0024 (+0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.29 (-0.26%) at a 2-week low. Thursday's closes: Dollar index -0.17 (-0.17%), EUR/USD +0.0024 (+0.23%), USD/JPY -0.70 (-0.62%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on the slide in 10-year T-note yields to 2-week lows, which reduces the dollar's interest rate differentials. The dollar was also undercut by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comment that fiscal stimulus effects on the U.S. economy this year may be limited.

Apr WTI crude oil prices (CLJ17 -0.77%) this morning are down -25 cents (-0.46%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ17 -0.51%) is -0.0037 (-0.21%). Thursday's closes: Apr crude +0.77 (+1.44%), Apr gasoline +0.0128 (+0.74%). Apr crude and gasoline on Thursday closed higher with Apr crude at a 1-1/2 month high and Apr gasoline at a 1-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar, the +564,000 increase in EIA crude inventories (less than expectations of +3.25 million bbl) and the -1.528 million bbl decline in crude supplies at Cushing to a 2-1/2 month low. Crude prices fell back from their best levels after U.S. crude production in the week of Feb 17 rose +0.3% to 9.001 million bpd, a 10-1/2 month high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/24/2017

		Friday, Feb 24
US	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jan new home sales expected +6.5% to 571,000, Dec -10.4% to 536,000.
	1000 ET	Revised-Feb University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment expected +0.3 to 96.0, prelim-Feb -2.8 to 95.7.
	1500 ET	USDA Jan Cattle on Feed.
		Monday, Feb 27
US	0830 ET	Jan durable goods orders expected +2.0% and +0.5% ex transportation, Dec -0.5% and +0.5% ex transportation. Jan capital goods new orders non-defense ex aircraft & parts expected +0.5%, Dec +0.7%.
	1000 ET	Jan pending home sales expected +0.9% m/m, Dec +1.6% m/m and -2.0% y/y.
	1030 ET	Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected -2.1 to 20.0, Jan +4.4 to 22.1.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1100 ET	Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks at the University of Oklahoma Price College of Business.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/24/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp	COG US	Bf-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.011
Pinnacle West Capital Corp	PNW US	Bf-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.481
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	6:45	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 2017	1.328
Public Service Enterprise Group	PEG US	7:30	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.525
Eaton Corp PLC	ETN US	8:00	Analyst Conference	Y 2017
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	9:00	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 2017
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp	COG US	9:30	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Southwestern Energy Co	SWN US	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Alliant Energy Corp	LNT US	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Pinnacle West Capital Corp	PNW US	11:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Public Service Enterprise Group	PEG US	11:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016

Bought Emergent Biosolutions

This morning I added Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for excellent price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 16 new highs and up 19.24% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 74.15
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.67
• Recently traded at 37.37 with a 50 day moving average of 32.12

The 4 Best Small Caps

Although I'm not buying anything today, I still used Barchart to screen the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to see if any of them met my strict screening criteria.  Today there were only 4: Dycom Industries (DY), Calavo Growers (CVGW), Virtusa Corp (VRTU), and Emergent Biosolutions (EBS).

Dycom Industries (DY)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• 123.46+ Weighted Alpha
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 9.24% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.24%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 68.92
• Recently traded at 71.14 with a 50 day moving average of 65.10

Calavo Growers (CVGW)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• 53.65+ Weighted Alpha
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 6.87% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 67.26%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 55.99
• Recently traded at 59.23 with a 50 day moving average of 53.98

Virtusa Corp (VRTU)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signals
• 53.01+ Weighted Alpha
• Trend Spotter hold signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 2 new highs and up 7.47% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 64.80%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 49.44
• Recently traded at 52.34 with a 50 day moving average of 49.77

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• 50.55+ Weighted Alpha
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 5 new highs and up 3.10% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 55.92%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.73
• Recently traded at 34.64 with a 50 day moving average of 33.54

Barchart Morning Call 3/8

Barchart Morning Call - 3/8

Friday, March 8th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.28%) are up +0.37% this morning on a +1.03% rally in European stocks and mostly higher stocks in Asia. The markets are encouraged by today's continued drop in Spanish and Italian bond yields and by a +22% increase in Chinese Feb exports and upward revision in Japan's Q4 GDP to +0.2% q/q annualized from -0.4%, although Germany's Jan industrial production was weaker than expected at unchanged. Commodity prices this morning are mildly higher by 0.13%. April crude oil (CLJ13 -0.49%) is down -0.21%, April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.77%) is up +0.49%, April gold (GCJ13 -0.01%) is up +0.15%, May copper (HGK13 -0.27%) is down -0.40%, and agriculture prices are trading mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is mildly higher by +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is little changed and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is sharply higher by +0.94% as Japan's Jan trade balance showed a large deficit of -1.5 trillion yen. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.14%) are down 5.5 ticks.
China's Feb exports rose sharply by +21.8% y/y, which was down from +25.8% in Jan but was much stronger than market expectations of +8.1%. Meanwhile, Feb imports fell by -15.2% y/y, weaker than market expectations of -8.5% y/y. The Feb trade balance showed a surplus of $15.25 billion, down from the $29.15 billion surplus in Jan but better than market expectations for a deficit of -$6.9 billion.
The Spanish 10-year bond yield today fell by another 7 bp to a new 2-1/3 year low of 4.83% as market concern about Spain continues to ease. The Italian 10-year bond yield fell by 3 bp to 4.56%.
German Jan industrial production was unchanged m/m and -1.3% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and -1.2% y/y. The report provided further evidence to show how the German economy is stagnating due to the Eurozone recession.
Japan's Feb Eco Watchers outlook index rose to 57.7 from 56.5 in Jan, while the Feb current index rose to 53.2 from 49.5.
Japan's Jan adjusted current account balance rose to 365 billion yen from a revised 115 billion yen in Dec. Japan's Jan trade balance showed a big deficit of -1.479 trillion yen, which was a bit narrower than market expectations of -1.5 trillion yen.
Japan's Q4 GDP was revised upward to +0.2% q/q annualized from the preliminary report of -0.4%.
North Korea today scrapped the 1953 armistice that called a truce in the Korean war and canceled the hotline with South Korea after the UN approved new sanctions. South Korea this week warned North Korea that any military provocation may be met not only with retaliation on the site of the attack but also possibly on command leadership facilities.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb payroll report is expected to show an increase of +160,000, which would be just slightly below the 6-month trend increase of +177,000, but slightly above January’s increase of +157,000. Today’s Feb unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from January’s 7.9% level. That would be 0.1 point above the 4-year low of 7.8% posted several times in late 2012.
There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Foot Locker (consensus $0.73), Carnival (0.03), and Tahoe Resources (-0.15).

June E-mini S&Ps (ESH13 +0.28%) are up 5.75 points (+0.37%) on expectations for a solid payroll report this morning and on a sharp 1.03% rally in European stocks. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher with the Dow at a record high and the S&P 500 at a 5-1/3 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected drop in weekly initial unemployment claims to a 6-week low, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after S&P upgraded Portugal’s credit rating and ECB President Draghi said the Eurozone economy will stabilize this year. Closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.25%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Foot Locker (FL +0.40%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 73 cents, right in line with the consensus of 73 cents.
• Fuel Systems (FSYS +3.63%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 1 cents, better than the consensus for a 3-cent loss.
• Continental Grain sent a letter to the Smithfield Foods (SFD +10.67%) board requesting that the board hire an investment bank to consider its strategic options, such as splitting the company into three independent companies.
• Carl Icahn raised his stake in Herbalife (HLF unch) to 15.55% from 13.6%.
• H&R Block (HRB -1.11%) reported an adjusted Q3 EPS loss of -22 cents, worse than consensus of -1 cent, saying total Q3 revenues fell -29% due to "timing issues" from the IRS opening its e-file system on January 30, which resulted in delays to the start of the U.S. tax season.
• WuXi PharmaTech (WX +0.46%) reported Q4 EPS of 38 cents, better than consensus of 30 cents.
• Medifast (MED +0.58%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 28 cents, better than consensus of 25 cents, but lowered its guidance on Q1 EPS to 32 cents to 35 cents, below consensus of 45 cents.
• Cooper Companies (COO -0.81%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.23, better than consensus of $1.19.
• Quiksilver (ZQK +0.96%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -16 cents, worse than consensus of -7 cents.
• PowerSecure (POWR +5.30%) reported Q4 EPS of 13 cents, better than consensus of 11 cents.
• TiVo (TIVO +0.96%) was initiated with an "Overweight" at Piper Jaffray with a share price target of $16.
• Covanta (CVA -1.22%) announced that the Board of Directors has authorized a 10% increase of the company's quarterly cash dividend to 16.5 cents from 15 cents per share. The Board of Directors also increased the current share repurchase authorization to $150 million.
• Emergent BioSolutions (EBS +0.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, slightly weaker than consensus of 45 cents.
• Finisar (FNSR +5.53%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, slightly better than consensus of 16 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.14%) are down 5.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in U.S. and European stock indexes. June 10-year T-note prices on Thursday slid to a 1-1/2 week low on the decline in unemployment claims and on reduced safe-haven demand with the Dow at a new record high and with Standard & Poor’s upgrading Portugal’s credit rating to stable from negative. Closes: TYM3 -15.5, FVM3 -7.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is up +0.09 points (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is virtually unchanged. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is sharply higher by +0.89 yen (+0.94%) on today's Japanese trade deficit news. The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied. EUR/USD strengthened after Standard & Poor’s upgraded Portugal’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative and after ECB President Draghi said the Eurozone economy will stabilize this year. USD/JPY posted a 3-1/2 year high on speculation the BOJ will expand its yen-negative monetary stimulus measures: Dollar index -0.378 (-0.46%), EUR/USD +0.0140 (+1.08%), USD/JPY +0.758 (+0.80%).
April WTI crude oil (CLJ13 -0.49%) is down -0.19 (-0.21%) and April gasoline (RBJ13 +0.77%) is up +0.0154 (+0.49%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed mixed as crude oil gained on economic optimism after the Dow rallied to another record high. However, gasoline weakened on signs of adequate supplies after the DOE on Wednesday reported that U.S. gasoline inventories in the important PADD1 district that includes NY Harbor (where Nymex gasoline is priced) rose by +651,000 bbl. Closes: CLJ3 +1.13 (+1.25%), RBJ3 -0.0014 (-0.04%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/08/2013

US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +160,000, Jan +157,000. Feb private payrolls expected +167,000, Jan +166,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Jan +4,000. Feb unemployment rate expected unchanged at 7.9%, Jan +0.1 to 7.9%.
	0830 ET	U.S. Feb average hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jan +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Feb average weekly hours all-employees expected unchanged at 34.4 hours, Jan 34.4 hours.
	1000 ET	Jan wholesale inventories expected +0.3% m/m, Dec -0.1% m/m.
JPN	0000 ET	Jan Feb Eco watchers survey outlook, Jan 56.5. Feb Eco watchers survey current, Jan 49.5.
GER	0600 ET	German Jan industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and -1.2% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
CHI	2030 ET	China Feb CPI expected +3.0% y/y, Jan +2.0% y/y. Feb PPI expected -1.5% y/y, Jan -1.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/08/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.726
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Analog Devices Inc	ADI US		ITC Scheduled to Release Findings for Dover Corp vs Analog Devices
Carnival Corp	CCL US		Q1 2013 Earnings Release	Q1 2013	0.032
Walt Disney Co/The	DIS US		Box Office Release of Movie Oz the Great and Powerful""
Dover Corp	DOV US		ITC Scheduled to Release Findings for Dover Corp vs Analog Devices
Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc	HE US		Financial Community Meeting - Day 3	Y 2013
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc	HRC US		Annual General Meeting
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
Thor Industries Inc	THO US		Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.38
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN		Q4 2012 Earnings Release	Q4 2012	-0.147