Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: AVNR

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/2

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.17% and European stocks are unchanged after falling back from a 2-1/4 month high as China led a rally in emerging markets on speculation a slowdown in growth will prod China into expanding stimulus. The Russian ruble held near a record low against the dollar on speculation Russia may enter its first recession since 2009 after Deputy Economy Minister Vedev said Russia 2015 GDP may contract -0.8%, weaker than previous projections of +1.2% growth. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.42%, Hong Kong +1.23%, China +3.69%, Taiwan -0.91%, Australia +1.41%, Singapore +0.50%, South Korea -0.07%, India -0.40%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 3-1/3 year high on speculation the PBOC may be preparing the markets for additional stimulus after it refrained from draining funds from the financial system today. The PBOC halted sales of repos used to withdraw funds on Nov 27 for the first time in 4 months, and refrained again today after conducting operations every Tuesday and Thursday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 7-1/3 year high despite Moody's cut to Japan's credit rating yesterday on speculation the slide in crude oil to a 4-1/3 year low and with the plunge in the yen to a 7-1/3 year low against the dollar will boost the profits of Japanese exporters. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -1.67%) is down -1.17%. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -1.24%) is down -0.98%. Feb gold (GCG15 -1.90%) is down -1.83%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.10%) is down -1.35%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.41%) is up +0.34%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.26%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.46%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.12%) are down -4.5 ticks.
Eurozone Oct PPI fell -0.4% m/m, more than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the largest monthly decline in a year. On an annual basis, Oct PPI fell -1.3% y/y, right on expectations.
The UK Nov Markit/CIPS construction PMI fell -2.0 to 59.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.4 to 61.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 13 months.
Japan Oct labor cash earnings rose +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.8% y/y and the smallest increase in 8 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov total vehicle sales report is expected to edge higher to 16.55 million units from 16.35 million units in October. Today’s Nov New York ISM index is expected to show a small +0.2 point increase to 55.0, recovering a bit after the sharp -8.9 point drop seen in October. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Ascena Retail Group (consensus $0.26).
Equity conference this week include: Deutsche Bank BioFEST Conference on Mon-Tue, NASDAQ OMX Investor Program on Mon-Wed, Cowen Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue, Real Estate Mexico Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Big Data & Analytics for Banking Summit on Tue-Wed, Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Stryker (SYK +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Travelers (TRV -0.01%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Apache (APA -0.44%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Mizuho.
Parker-Hannifin (PH -1.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Citigroup keeps a 'Buy' rating on FedEx (FDX -0.27%) as it raises ts price target on the stock to $210 from $190.
Walmart (WMT -1.51%) announced that Cyber Monday was the biggest online day in its history for orders.
Piper Jaffray reiterates an 'Overweight' rating on Electronic Arts (EA -1.78%) as it raises its price target on the stock to $47 from $44.
Xcel Energy (XEL +0.97%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Cubic (CUB +2.70%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Avanir (AVNR +0.54%) will be acquired by Otsuka Pharmaceutical for $3.5 billion.
Royal Caribbean (RCL -1.97%) will replace Bemis (BMS +0.33%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading this Thursday.
Thor Industries (THO -1.58%) reported Q1 EPS of 73 cents, less than consensus of 81 cents.
Glenview Capital reported a 7.59% passive stake in PHH Corp. (PHH unch) .
Mattress Firm (MFRM -1.99%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 70 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $464.3 million was better than consensus of $431.01 million.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL -3.16%) reported Q3 EPS of 54 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.23%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.17%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.68%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq -1.15%. Bearish factors included (1) global economic concerns after the China Nov manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to a 9-month low of 50.3 and after Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to a 17-month low of 50.1, and (2) a slide in retail stocks after a report from the National Retail Federation said that U.S. consumers spent -11% less than last year over the 4 days of Black Friday holiday sales.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.12%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday fell back from a 5-week high and closed lower: TYH5 -4.00, FVH5 -1.75. The main bearish factor was the stronger-than-expected Nov ISM manufacturing index. T-notes had rallied early Monday on bullish factors that included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year U.S. break-even inflation expectations rate fell to the lowest level in 3 years, and (2) deflation concerns after the Nov ISM prices paid sub-index fell -9.0 to a 2-1/3 year low of 44.5.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.41%) this morning is up +0.298 (+0.34%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0032 (-0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.54 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Monday fell back from a 4-1/3 year high and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.410 (-0.46%), EUR/USD +0.00187 (+0.15%), USD/JPY -0.270 (-0.23%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell back from a 7-year high when Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Japan’s credit rating one notch to A1 from Aa3, and (2) a rally in the commodity currencies such as the Russian ruble and Australian dollar after crude oil prices recovered from a 4-1/3 year low and closed higher.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -1.67%) this morning is down -81 cents (-1.17%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -1.24%) is -0.0185 (-0.98%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Monday recovered from 4-1/4 year lows and closed sharply higher. Closes: CLF5 +2.85 (+4.31%), RBF5 +0.0572 (+3.13%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, (2) the stronger-than-expected Nov ISM manufacturing index, which is positive for energy demand and consumption, and (3) fund short-covering after crude plunged over $14 a barrel (-18%) in the past week.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/02/2014

US	0810 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on a panel discussion at the 2014 Wall Street Journal CEO Council Annual Meeting.
	0945 ET	Nov ISM New York expected +0.2 to 55.0, Oct -8.9 to 54.8.
	1000 ET	Oct construction spending expected +0.6% m/m, Sep -0.4% m/m.
	n/a	Nov total vehicle sales expected 16.58 million, Oct 16.35 million. Nov domestic vehicle sales expected 13.30 million, Oct 13.12 million.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected -0.4 to 61.0, Oct 61.4.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Oct PPI expected -0.3% m/m and -1.3% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
CHI	2000 ET	China Nov non-manufacturing PMI, Oct 53.8.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/02/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Intel Corp	INTC US	7:30	Bloomberg Lunch With Intel's Director of IR (Trey Campbell)
Johnson Controls Inc	JCI US	8:00	Analyst Meeting - Strategic Review	Y 2014
UnitedHealth Group Inc	UNH US	8:00	Investor Conference	Y 2014
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc	CHRW US	8:30	Acquisition of Freightquote.com, Inc by C.H. Robinson Call
Ford Motor Co	F US	9:30	November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Ford Motor Co	F US	10:00	November 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Ascena Retail Group Inc	ASNA US	16:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.26
Ascena Retail Group Inc	ASNA US	16:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Kennametal Inc	KMT US		Investor Meeting - Day 2	Y 2014

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/11

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, June 11th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.47%) this morning are down -0.40% and European stocks are down -0.64% after the World Bank cut its global 2014 GDP forecast to 2.8% from a Jan estimate of 3.2%. Also undercutting European stocks was a 4% drop in Airbus after Emirates airlines canceled a deal for $16 billion of A350 planes, the biggest-ever order cancelation. In addition, Lufthansa tumbled 14% after it lowered its earnings forecasts for this year and next. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.50%, Hong Kong -0.25%, China -0.02%, Taiwan +0.08%, Australia -0.29%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea -0.01%, India -0.43%. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.16%) is up +0.15% after Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, speaking before OPEC's meeting in Vienna today, said that crude supply, demand and prices are good. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.67%) is up +0.43%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.25%) is up +0.18% at a 2-week high. July copper (HGN14 -0.41%) is down -0.44%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed ahead of the Jun WASDE crop production report later today. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.30% at a 1-week low. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.06%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The World Bank cut its 2014 global growth forecast to 2.8% from a Jan estimate of 3.2%. It also lowered its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to 2.1% from a Jan estimate of 2.8% and cut its China 2014 GDP estimate to 7.6% from 7.7% estimated in Jan.
UK May jobless claims fell -37,400, more than expectations of -25,000, and Apr was revised to show a -28,400 decrease, more than the originally reported -25,100. The May claimant count rate fell -0.1 to 3.2%, right on expectations and the lowest in 5-1/2 years.
The UK Apr unemployment rate fell -0.2 to 6.6% for the 3-months ended Apr, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 6.7% and the lowest in 4-1/3 years.
The UK Apr average weekly earnings 3-month avg was +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +1.2% y/y and the smallest increase in 13 months. UK Apr average weekly earnings ex-bonus 3-month avg rose +0.9% y/y, less than expectations of +1.2% y/y and the smallest increase in 6 months.
The Japan Q2 BSI large all industry business conditions tumbled to -14.6 from 12.7 in Q1. The Q2 BSI large manufacturing business conditions fell to -13.9 from 12.5 in Q1. Both fell to 3-year lows.
Japan May domestic CGPI rose +0.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y, more than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +4.1% y/y, with the +4.4% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 5-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus $3.23). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Morgan Stanley Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Future of Payments & Commerce Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs North American Energy Summit on Wed, Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed, 2nd Annual Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed-Thu, Drexel Hamilton Aerospace and Defense Conference on Thu, and Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. Utility & Infrastructure Symposium on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

B. Riley kept its 'Sell' rating on Radio Shack (RSH -10.39%) and cut its price target on the stock to $0, saying a turnaround at RadioShack is unlikely given its balance sheet and limited cost cutting opportunities.
Stryker (SYK -0.47%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
Marvell (MRVL -0.07%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
Reynolds American (RAI -0.29%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill with a price target of $65.
Molson Coors (TAP +5.36%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill with a price target of $80.
Tiger Global Investments reported an 8% passive stake in Restoration Hardware (RH -0.94%) .
Covidien (COV -0.21%) announced U.S. FDA approval of its Apollo Onyx delivery micro catheter; the first detachable tip micro catheter available in the U.S.
Third Avenue reported a 16.36% passive stake in Spanish Broadcasting (SBSA +1.71%) .
Baker Bros. Advisors reported a 10.8% passive stake in Avanir (AVNR +2.43%) .
Sooner Holdings reported a 8.3% passive stake in Renewable Energy (REGI -0.38%) .
Ulta Salon (ULTA -0.12%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 77 cents, better than consensus of 74 cents.
United Natural Foods (UNFI -0.85%) reported Q3 EPS of 73 cents, right on consensus.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.47%) this morning are down -7.75 points (-0.40%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday settled mixed as profit-taking set in after the S&P 500 rose +7.8% in the past 2 months up to Monday’s all-time high. Losses in stocks were contained on optimism that Chinese economic growth can be sustained after the PBOC announced a -0.5 point cut in reserve requirements for some banks in a policy move aimed at supporting smaller companies and agriculture. Closes: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones +0.02%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.06%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday dropped to a 4-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors for T-notes included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $62 billion of T-notes this week, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand after stocks erased early losses and settled little changed. Closes: TYU4 -5.50, FVU4 -3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.030 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0014 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher. Supportive factors included (1) early weakness in stocks which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) speculation that divergent monetary policies among global central banks will boost the dollar’s interest rate differentials versus the euro and yen as the Fed continues to taper QE3 while the BOJ and ECB expand their monetary stimulus measures. Closes: Dollar Index +0.167 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.00462 (-0.34%), USD/JPY -0.176 (-0.17%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.16%) this morning is up +16 cents (+0.15%). July gasoline (RBN14 +0.67%) is up +0.0127 (+0.43%). July crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower. July crude posted a 3-1/4 month high on expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA inventory data will show crude stockpiles fell -1.5 million bbl. Prices fell back, however, and closed lower on bearish factors that included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) reduced geopolitical concerns on the prospects for a cease-fire to be implemented in eastern Ukraine as peace talks continue between Russia and Ukraine. Closes: CLN4 -0.06 (-0.06%) RBN4 -0.0103 (-0.35%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/11/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.1% with purchase sub-index -3.6% and refi sub-index -2.9%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1200 ET	Jun WASDE crop production report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	May monthly budget statement expected -$142.500 billion, Apr +$106.853 billion.
UK	0430 ET	UK May jobless claims change expected -25,000, Apr -25,100. May claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 3.2%.
	0430 ET	UK Apr avg weekly earnings expected +1.2% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y. Apr weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.2% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +1.3% 3-mo avg y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 6.7% 3-months through Apr.
	1901 ET	UK May RICS house price balance expected 52%, Apr 54%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Apr machine orders expected -10.8% m/m and +13.3% y/y, Mar +19.1% m/m and +16.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/11/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	3.233
Rayonier Inc	RYN US	7:00	Business Update Call
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Caterpillar Inc	CAT US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Triumph Group Inc	TGI US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Allegion PLC	ALLE US	9:30	Annual General Meeting
Teekay Corp	TK US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc	SEAS US	11:00	Annual General Meeting
Knowles Corp	KN US	11:00	Management Conference Call
NetSuite Inc	N US	11:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
FireEye Inc	FEYE US	13:00	Annual General Meeting
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc	DKS US	13:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Target Corp	TGT US	14:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US		May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Alliant Energy Corp	LNT US		Roadshow-Day 2	Y 2014
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Geneva	Y 2014
DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc	DWA US		Annual General Meeting
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US		Annual General Meeting
Zynga Inc	ZNGA US		Annual General Meeting