Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - 27 minutes ago
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.30%) are down -0.50% and European stocks are down -0.76% at a 2-week low. Stocks and the dollar sold-off after comments from President-elect Trump raised concerns over a trade war with China when he told the WSJ that the U.S. dollar is "too strong" in part because China holds down its currency. The slump in the dollar has also boosted gold prices with Feb COMEX gold (GCG17 +1.41%) up +1.66% at a 1-3/4 month high. Also undercutting European stocks is Brexit concerns after an unnamed person familiar with the matter said the UK Prime Minister May will say today that the UK will pull out of the European Union's single market for goods and services and seek a new trading relationship with the EU. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -1.48%, Hong Kong +0.54%, China +0.17%, Taiwan +0.67%, Australia -0.85%, Singapore -0.01%, South Korea +0.46%, India -0.19%. China's Shanghai Composite erased early losses and closed higher on signs that state-sponsored funds bought stocks before Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index sold-off to a 1-1/4 month low as exporter companies declined after USD/JPY tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low, which reduces the prospects for exporters' earnings.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.71%) is down -0.66% at a 1-1/4 month low after President-elect Trump said the dollar is "too strong." EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.96% at a 1-1/4 month high after the German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose to a 7-month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.06% at a 1-1/2 month low as a slide in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 +0.24%) are up +16.5 ticks.
President-elect Trump told the WSJ that the U.S. dollar is "too strong" in part because China holds down its currency. He added that "our companies can't compete with them (China) because our currency is too strong and it's killing us."
The German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +2.8 to 16.6, weaker than expectations of +4.6 to 18.4, but still the highest in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jan Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index (expected -0.8 to 8.2, Dec +7.5 to 9.0), (2) New York Fed President Dudley (voter) speaks at a National Retail Federation Conference on consumer behavior, (3) San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) speaks at the Sacramento Business Review Economic Forecast event, (4) USDA weekly grain export inspections.
S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Morgan Stanley (consensus $0.65), UnitedHealth Corp (2.07), Comerica (0.94), CSX (0.50), United Continental (1.75), Linear Technology (0.53).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Meridian Waste Solutions (MRDN).
Equity conferences today: TD Securities Mining Conference on Wed, ACI Future of Polyolefins Summit on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +0.34%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $375.
Everest Re Group Ltd (RE -0.24%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie Research with a 12-month target price of $186.
Morgan Stanley (MS +0.41%) is up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 65 cents.
AmerisourceBegen (ABC +0.91%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Leerink Partners with a 12-month target price of $95.
Twitter (TWTR -0.75%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS with a 12-month target price of $18.
HCA Holdings (HCA +0.35%) was upgraded to 'Market Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Avondale Partners LLC with a 12-month target price of $96.
The Container Store Group (TCS -1.06%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Disney (DIS +0.49%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs who cited Disney's fiscal year 2018 film slate as its "best ever" as they raised their price target on the stock to $134 from $109.
Concho Resources (CXO +0.28%) filed a 2.2 million share shelf registration for stock holder Endurance Resources.
Citigroup estimates that Coherus Biosciences (CHRS +0.56%) could add $7 a share if the U.S. Supreme Court decides that biosimilars don't need to issue a 180-day marketing notice and Coherus can launch its low-cost alternative to Amgen's Neulasta 6 months earlier.
Delphi Automotive PLC (DLPH +0.80%) says it sees a $300 million pretax charge in Q4 related to ongoing litigation from unsecured claims against DPH Holdings resulting from a 2005 bankruptcy filing.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.30%) this morning are down -11.25 points (-0.50%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq +0.36%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed higher on upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday evening who said the U.S. economy faces no serious short-term obstacles and that "the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up." In addition, bank stocks rallied after JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo. and Bank of America all reported stronger-than-expected earnings results. Stocks were undercut by the U.S. Dec retail sales report of +0.6% m/m and +0.2% ex autos, which was weaker than expectations of +0.7% and +0.5% ex autos. In addition, the Jan University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index fell by -0.1 point to 98.1, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 98.5.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 +0.24%) this morning are up +16.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH7 -3.50, FVH7 -2.00. Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday closed lower on Fed Chair Yellen's comment late Thursday night that the U.S. economy faces no serious short-term obstacles with unemployment at a low level and wage growth beginning to pick up, which bolsters the case for additional Fed rate hikes. T-notes were also undercut by increased price pressures at wholesale level after the U.S. Dec PPI ex food & energy rose +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.71%) this morning is down -0.67 (-0.66%) at a 1-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0102 (+0.96%) at a 1-1/4 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.21 (-1.06%) at a 1-1/2 month low. Friday's closes: Dollar index -0.16 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.0030 (+0.28%), USD/JPY -0.23 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Dec retail sales and Jan University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index reports. In addition, there was strength in EUR/USD after the German Dec wholesale price index rose +1.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in 4 years, which will discourage the ECB from further easing.
Feb WTI crude oil prices (CLG17 +1.60%) this morning are up +61 cents (+1.16%) and Feb gasoline (RBG17 +1.96%) is up +0.0292 (+1.81%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: Feb crude -0.49 (-0.92%), Feb gasoline +0.0019 (+0.12%). Feb crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by a decline in U.S. active oil rigs for the first time in the last eleven week. Baker Hughes reported that active U.S. oil rigs fell by -7 rigs to 522 rigs in the week ended Jan 13. Crude oil prices fell on comments from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo who said it is still premature to judge compliance of oil cuts from OPEC members.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/17/2017
| Tuesday, Jan 17 | ||
| US | 0830 ET | Jan Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected -0.8 to 8.2, Dec +7.5 to 9.0. |
| 0845 ET | New York Fed President Dudley (voter) speaks at a National Retail Federation Conference on consumer behavior. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1800 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) speaks at the Sacramento Business Review Economic Forecast event. | |
| Wednesday, Jan 18 | ||
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +5.8% with purchase sub-index +6.1% and refi sub-index +4.4%. |
| 0830 ET | Dec CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Dec CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. | |
| 0915 ET | Dec industrial production expected +0.6%, Nov -0.4%. Dec manufacturing production expected +0.5%, Nov -0.1%. Dec capacity utilization expected +0.4 to 75.4%, Nov -0.4 to 75.0%. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan NAHB housing market index expected -1 to 69, Dec +7 to 70. | |
| 1100 ET | Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) discusses the economy at the Minneapolis Urban League. | |
| 1500 ET | Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/17/2017
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiffany & Co | TIF US | Bef-mkt | December 2016 Sales and Revenue Release | 2016 | |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 2.073 |
| Comerica Inc | CMA US | 6:40 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.938 |
| Morgan Stanley | MS US | 7:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.65 |
| Comerica Inc | CMA US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Morgan Stanley | MS US | 8:30 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH US | 8:45 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| CSX Corp | CSX US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.496 |
| Linear Technology Corp | LLTC US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2017 Earnings Release | Q2 2017 | 0.525 |
| United Continental Holdings Inc | UAL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.752 |
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