Thursday, March 17th, 2016View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.30%) are down -0.45%, retreating from a 2-1/2 month high on global growth concerns. The markets lost their euphoria over the Fed's decision Wednesday to scale back interest rate increases on concern over global growth. Caterpillar is down over 3% in pre-market trading after it lowered guidance on Q1 adjusted EPS to 65 cents-70 cents, below consensus of 95 cents. European stocks are down -1.66%, led by losses in carmakers, as EUR/USD rallied to a 5-week high. Commodity producers and mining stocks bucked the trend and are trading higher as crude oil jumped to a 3-1/4 month high and copper climbed to a 1-1/2 week high. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.22%, Hong Kong +1.21%, China +1.20%, Taiwan +0.41%, Australia +0.96%, Singapore +1.26%, South Korea +0.72%, India -0.02%. China's Shanghai Composite posted a 3-week high as the yuan strengthened to a 2-1/2 month high against the dollar, although Japanese stocks closed lower after JPY/USD fell to a 3-week low, which undercut exporters and dragged the overall market lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.00%) is down -1.14% at a 4-3/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.90% at a 5-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.12% at a 3-week low.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.45%) are up +22 ticks at a 1-week high on positive carryover from the FOMC's decision yesterday to scale back its interest rate increases.
The ECB Governing Council lowered the ELA ceiling for Greek banks to 71.3 billion euros from 71.4 billion euros, saying the move "reflects an improvement of the liquidity situation of Greek banks, amid a reduction of uncertainty and the stabilization of private sector deposit flows."
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +9,000 to 268,000, previous -18,000 to 259,000) and continuing claims (expected +10,000 to 2.235 million, previous -32,000 to 2.225 million), (2) Q4 current account deficit (expected -$118.0 billion, Q3 -$124.1 billion), (3) Mar Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected +1.3 to -1.5, Feb +0.7 to -2.8), (4) Jan JOLTS job openings (expected -57,000 to 5.550 million, Dec +261,000 to 5.607 million), (5) Feb leading indicators (expected +0.2%, Jan -0.2%), and (6) the Treasury's auction of $11 billion of 10-year TIPS.
There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Adobe Systems (consensus $0.61), Marvell Technology (0.10), Michaels Cos (0.84), International Game Technology (0.37).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Spring Bank Pharmaceuticals (SBPH).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Capital Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Conference on Wed-Thu, Evercore ISI Retail Summit on Wed-Thu, ACI European Food & Beverage Plastic Packaging Conference on Thu, and Citigroup Retail Madness Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Caterpillar (CAT +2.62%) is down over 3% in pre-market trading after it lowered guidance on Q1 adjusted EPS to 65 cents-70 cents, below consensus of 95 cents.
Hyatt Hotels (H -0.61%) were downgraded to 'Equalweight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX +0.09%) is down over 2% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo lowered its valuation on the stock to $30-$31 from $56-$58.
St. Jude Medical (STJ -1.54%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after the stock was rated a 'Buy' at Nomura with a price target of $64.
FedEx (FDX +0.84%) climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.51, higher than consensus of $2.34, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $10.70-$10.90 from a previous estimate of $10.40-$10.90, above consensus of $10.56.
Jabil Circuit (JBL +2.57%) sank nearly 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 core EPS of 57 cents, below consensus of 60 cents, and said it sees Q3 core EPS of 12 cents-18 cents, well below consensus of 51 cents.
Herman Miller (MLHR +2.26%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 46 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents, and said it sees Q4 EPS of 57 cents-61 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents.
U.S. Silica (SLCA +2.98%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a stock offering of 8 million shares.
Homeinns Hotel Group (HMIN -0.20%) reported Q4 revenue of $258.9 million, above an estimated range of $236.3 million-$240.4 million.
Silver Wheaton (SLW +5.51%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 14 cents, better than consensus of 13 cents.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM +2.15%) slipped 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.55, below consensus of $1.58, and said it sees Q1 EPS of 48 cents-52 cents, weaker than consensus of 55 cents.
Guess (GES -1.84%) slumped over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 57 cents, below consensus of 58 cents, and said it sees fiscal year 2017 EPS of 65 cents-85 cents, weaker than consensus of $1.05.
Barrick Gold (ABX +6.98%) CFO Shaun Usmar will leave the company to lead Elliot Management Venture and will be replaced by EVP Catherine Raw effective April 26.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.30%) this morning are down -9.00 points (-0.45%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.56%, Dow Jones +0.43%, Nasdaq +0.85%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday erased early losses and rallied to a 2-1/4 month high and closed higher. Stocks were boosted by the +0.2% increase in U.S. Feb manufacturing production (stronger than expectations of +0.1%) and by the dovish FOMC meeting where the FOMC lowered its 2016 year-end fed funds rate forecast to 0.9% from a 1.4% estimate in Dec, which implies only two 25 bp rate increases in 2016 versus an estimate of four rate hikes in Dec.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 +0.45%) this morning are up +22 ticks at a 1-week high. Wednesday's closes: TYM6 +14.00, FVM6 +15.00. Jun T-notes on Wednesday recovered from a 1-1/2 month low and closed higher on the dovish FOMC meeting where the FOMC cut its GDP and inflation forecasts and now predicts only two rate hikes this year rather the four. T-notes fell early to a 1-1/2 month low after U.S. Feb core CPI rose +2.3% y/y, the largest increase in 3-3/4 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.00%) this morning is down -1.093 (-1.14%) at a 4-3/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0101 (+0.90%) at a 5-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.26 (-1.12%) at a 3-week low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.743 (-0.77%), EUR/USD +0.0115 (+1.04%), USD/JPY -0.62 (-0.55%). The dollar index on Wednesday slid to a 1-month low and closed lower on the dovish FOMC meeting where the Fed cut its expectations for rate hikes, acknowledged global risks, and cut its GDP and inflation forecasts.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.72%) this morning is up +1.59% to a 3-1/4 month high and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.27%) is up +0.0039 (+0.27%). Wednesday's closes: CLJ6 +2.12 (+5.83%), RBJ6 +0.0101 (+0.72%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply higher on the slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low, the -0.1% decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Mar 11 to a 16-month low of 9.068 million bpd, and the +1.3 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, less than expectations of +2.75 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/17/2016
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +9,000 to 268,000, previous -18,000 to 259,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +10,000 to 2.235 million, previous -32,000 to 2.225 million. |
| 0830 ET | Q4 current account balance expected -$118.0 billion, Q3 -$124.1 billion. | |
| 0830 ET | Mar Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +1.3 to -1.5, Feb +0.7 to -2.8. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan JOLTS job openings expected -57,000 to 5.550 million, Dec +261,000 to 5.607 million. | |
| 1000 ET | Feb leading indicators expected +0.2%, Jan -0.2%. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amount of 2-year floating rate notes to be auctioned Mar 23 (previous $13 billion). | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $11 billion of 10-year TIPS. | |
| EUR | 0600 ET | Revised Eurozone Feb CPI, preliminary -0.2% y/y. Revised Feb core CPI, preliminary +0.7% y/y. |
| UK | 0800 ET | BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion-pound asset purchase target. |
| CHI | 2130 ET | China Feb property prices. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/17/2016
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.841 |
| International Game Technology PLC | IGT US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 0.374 |
| International Game Technology PLC | IGT US | 8:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | 9:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Adobe Systems Inc | ADBE US | 17:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Adobe Systems Inc | ADBE US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.606 |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting | Y 2016 | ||
| Marvell Technology Group Ltd | MRVL US | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 0.099 | |
| Keysight Technologies Inc | KEYS US | Annual General Meeting |
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