Thursday, September 24, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/24

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.84%) are down -0.75% and European stocks are down -1.60% at a 1-month low as automakers fell, led by a -7.5%decline in BMW AG, after the German newspaper Autobild reported that diesel emissions from BMW's X3 model exceeded EU pollution limits by as much as eleven times in a real-world road test. European stock losses were limited after German Sep IFO business confidence unexpectedly rose. Emerging market stocks fell and Norway's krone tumbled 2% against the euro after the Norges Bank, Norway's central bank, unexpectedly cut interest rates to a record low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -2.76%, Hong Kong -0.97%, China +0.86%, Taiwan -0.86%), Australia +1.47%, Singapore closed for holiday, South Korea unchanged, India +0.16%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 2-week low after Japanese markets reopened following a 3-day holiday. China's Shanghai Composite closed higher as Chinese technology stocks rallied on speculation President Xi Jinping's state visit to the U.S. will lead to higher exports.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) is down -0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.37%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.56%.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.13%) are up +6 ticks.
The German Sep IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 108.5, better than expectations of -0.4 to 107.9.
Norges Bank Governor Olsen said "growth prospects for the Norwegian economy have weakened, and inflation is projected to abate further out" as the Norges Bank cut the overnight deposit rate by 25 bp to a record low 0.75% and forecast that the overnight rate may fall as low as 0.59% by Q3 of 2016.
The Japan Sep Nikkei manufacturing PMI fell -0.8 to 50.9, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.5 to 51.2.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Chair Janet Yellen's lecture at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +9,000 to 273,000, previous -11,000 to 264,000) and continuing claims (expected +3,000 to 2.240 million, previous -26,000 to 2.237 million), (3) Aug Chicago Fed national activity index (expected -0.10 to 0.24, Jul 0.34), (4) Aug durable goods orders (expected -2.3% and +0.1% ex transportation, Jul +2.2% and +0.4% ex transportation), (5) Aug new home sales (expected +1.6% to 515,000, Jul +5.4% to 507,000), (6) Sep Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (expected +3 to -6, Aug -9), and (7) the Treasury's auction of $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
There are 5 companies in the Russell 1000 index that report earnings today: NIKE (consensus $1.19), Accenture (1.12), Cintas (0.91), Bed Bath and Beyond (1.21), Jabil Circuit (0.45).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Boxlight Corp (BOXL), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings (SPWH).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Mitsubishi UFJ Securities: Utilities Conference - New York on Thu.



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU +2.63%) slid nearly 4% in pre-market trading as it follows European car makers lower.
Chubb Corporation (CB +0.28%) is down over 5% in pre-market trading on concern U.S. legislation to protect individual privacy from civilian drones could limit Chubb's use of the devices for inspection.
General Electric (GE +0.12%) signed a $12 billion export financing pact with U.K. Export Financing.
Ralph Lauren (RL -2.07%) was raised to 'Buy' from 'Neutral at Citi group with a price target of $125.
Taser (TASR -0.68%) received an order for 2000 Axon flex body cameras from Memphis, TN.
Accenture PLC (ACN +0.19%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.15 above consensus of $1.12.
Nimble Storage (NMBL -4.29%) climbed nearly 2% in pre-market trading after Longbow upraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a price target of $32.
Citigroup (C -0.52%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after the stock closed lower the past two sessions.
Wal-Mart (WMT +0.20%) is seeking to cut its purchase of goods made in China by 2-6%, according to a Reuters report.
Steelcase (SCS +0.77%) rallied 4% in after hours trading after fiscal Q2 EPS and revenue beat estimates.
Conatus Pharma (CNAT +15.73%) rallied 40% in after-hours trading after a study showed that one of its new drugs reduced severe hypertension.
HB Fuller (FUL -1.48%) fell -6% in after-hours trading after the company reduced fiscal-year EPS to $2.23 from $2.45, below consensus of $2.41.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.77%) was rated as a new buy at Stifel with a price target of $25.
Solarcity (SCTY -7.72%) was rated as a new buy at Stifel with a price target of $64.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.84%) this morning are down -14.50 points (-0.75%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq-0.01%. The S&P 500 Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on negative carryover from the -2.19% drop in the Shanghai Composite on Chinese growth concerns after the China Sep Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 47.0, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 47.5 and the lowest in 6-1/2 years. In addition, energy and basic-resource stocks sold off after commodity prices fell.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.13%)this morning are up +6 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ5 -4.50, FVZ5 -2.00. Dec T-notes Wednesday fell back from a 4-week high and closed lower on negative carryover from a slide in German bund prices after ECB President Draghi curbed speculation the ECB will expand stimulus by saying that it is "too soon" to say whether to boost its bond buying. T-note prices were also undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Sep Markit manufacturing PMI.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) this morning is down -0.166 (-0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0041 (+0.37%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.67 (-0.56%). Wednesday's Dollar Index +0.389 (+0.41%), EUR/USD -0.0070 (-0.63%), USD/JPY -0.41 (-0.34%). The dollar index Wednesday retreated from a 2-week high and closed lower on strength in EUR/USD after ECB President Draghi said it's "too soon" to say whether the ECB should expand stimulus. The dollar was also hurt by the slump in the China Sep Caixin manufacturing PMI to a 6-1/2 year low, which signals weakness in China's economy that may keep the Fed from raising interest rates.
Nov crude oil (CLX15 +0.43%) this morning is up +15 cents (+0.34%) and Nov gasoline (RBX15 -0.24%) is down -0.0021 (-0.15%). Wednesday's closes: CLX5 -1.66 (-3.58%), RBX5 -0.0273 (-1.95%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower on (1) the +1.369 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline inventories, more than expectations of +850,000 bbl, and (2) the +0.2% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 18 to 9.136 million bpd, the first increase in 7 weeks. Crude oil prices were also hurt by concerns about Chinese energy demand after the China Sep Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to a 6-1/2 year low.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/24/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +9,000 to 273,000, previous -11,000 to 264,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +3,000 to 2.240 million, previous -26,000 to 2.237 million.
0830 ETAug Chicago Fed national activity index expected -0.10 to 0.24, Jul 0.34.
0830 ETAug durable goods orders expected -2.3% and +0.1% ex transportation, Jul +2.2% and +0.4% ex transportation. Aug capital goods new orders non-defense ex-aircraft & parts expected -0.1%, Jul +2.1%.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETAug new home sales expected +1.6% to 515,000, Jul +5.4% to 507,000.
1100 ETSep Kansas City Fed manufacturing index expected +3 to -6, Aug -9.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
1700 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen delivers a lecture at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
JPN0030 ETJapan Jul all-industry activity index expected unch m/m, Jun +0.3% m/m.
1930 ETJapan Aug national CPI expected +0.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% y/y. Aug national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.1% y/y, Jul unch y/y. Aug national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.7% y/y, Jul +0.6% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep Tokyo CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Aug +0.1% y/y. Sep Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Aug -0.1% y/y. Sep Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.5% y/y, Aug +0.4% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Aug PPI services expected +0.5% y/y, Jul +0.6% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Oct GfK consumer confidence expected -0.1 to 9.8, Sep 9.9.
0400 ETGerman Sep IFO business climate expected -0.4 to 107.9, Aug 108.3. Sep IFO current assessment expected -0.1 to 114.7, Aug 114.8. Sep IFO expectations expected -0.8 to 101.4, Aug 102.2.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/24/2015

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Accenture PLCACN US7:01Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.12
Accenture PLCACN US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US9:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2015
Eli Lilly & CoLLY US10:00Empa-Reg Study Results Call
NIKE IncNKE US16:15Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.191
Jabil Circuit IncJBL US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
NIKE IncNKE US17:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Cintas CorpCTAS US17:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallC2 2016
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
SPX CorpSPW USAft-mktSPX Corp. Replaces DealerTrack Technologies in S&P Small Cap 600
SPX CorpSPW USAft-mktToro Co. Replaces SPX Corp in S&P MidCap 400
Toro Co/TheTTC USAft-mktToro Co. Replaces SPX Corp in S&P MidCap 400
Cintas CorpCTAS USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.907
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.21
Jabil Circuit IncJBL USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.451
Skechers U.S.A. IncSKX USExtraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2015

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