Thursday, June 4th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.47%) this morning are down -0.63% and European stocks are down -1.70% at a 4-week low as a selloff in global government bonds pressures stock prices. The 10-year German bund yield soared to an 8-1/4 month high of 0.996% as the plunge in German bund prices accelerated for a second day after ECB President Draghi on Wednesday said markets should get used to greater volatility after the ECB forecast higher Eurozone inflation rates. Another negative for stocks is the impasse in Greek debt talks that have yet to be resolved. Greece has four payments due to the IMF this month that total more than 1.5 billion euros with the first payment due on Friday. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.07%, Hong Kong -0.38%, China +0.76%, Taiwan -2.18%, Australia -1.42%, Singapore -0.14%, South Korea +0.54%, India -0.09%.Commodity prices are mixed. Jul crude oil (CLN15 +0.08%) is up +0.30% and Jul gasoline (RBN15 +0.06%) is up +0.15%. Metals prices are lower. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.25%) is down -0.14% on continued fund selling as long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 6-year low. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.83%) is down -0.88% at a 5-week low on technical selling after Jul copper fell below its 100-day moving average. Agricultural prices are mixed.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.64%) is down -0.71% at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.71% at a 2-week high as the surge in European government bond yields boosts the euro's interest rate differentials against the dollar. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.16%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.06%) are down -7 ticks at a 5-1/4 month low on the heels of the rout in German bund prices.
As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase plan at 375 billion pounds following today's BOE policy meeting.
The latest round of Greek debt talks failed to yield a breakthrough, and according to a Greek official, EU officials are pressing for an agreement with Greece's creditors by Jun 14. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said that demands by EU officials and the IMF for cuts in the income of pensioners and increases in value-added taxes on power are unacceptable. Greece has to meet four payments this month to the IMF that total more than 1.5 billion euros, with the first payment due on Friday.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May Challenger job cuts (April was +52.8% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -4,000 to 278,000 after last week's +7,000 to 282,000) and continuing claims (expected -15,000 to 2.207 million after last week's +11,000 to 2.222 million), (3) Q1 non-farm productivity (expected revised to -3.0% from -1.9%) and Q1 unit labor costs (expected revised to +6.1% from +5.0%), and (4) a speech by Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo at a financial conference in New York.There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: JM Smucker (consensus $0.99), Joy Global (0.56), Navistar (-0.17), Michaels Cos (0.33), Cooper (1.75), Thor Industries (1.21), Verifone (0.43).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Evolent Health (EVH), ECPM Holdings (GI), DavidsTea (DTEA), Qunar Cayman Islands (QUNR), Markit (MRKT), Oxford Lane Capital Corp (OXLC).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Basic Materials Conference on Wed-Thu, FBN Securities: Field Trip - 8th Semi-Annual Silicon Valley Tour on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Engineering & Construction Conference on Thu, Morgan Stanley Leveraged Finance Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Nordstrom (JWN +0.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.Energizer (ENR -0.99%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Twitter (TWTR +1.65%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
Ciena (CIEN +0.99%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, above consensus of 24 cents.
Diebold (DBD +2.95%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Ericsson (ERIC unch) and AT&T (T +1.95%) were both upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
JM Smucker (SJM -0.30%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.87, well above consensus of 99 cents.
Joy Global (JOY -0.82%) reported Q2 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 56 cents.
Verizon Communications (VZ -0.12%) fell over 1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight.'
T-Mobile (TMUS -0.80%) jumped nearly 6% and Dish Network (DISH -1.24%) climbed almost 8% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported that T-Mobile in in merger talks with Dish Network.
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG -0.23%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $58.
Boeing (BA +0.39%) was awarded a $466.5 million government contract for missile guidance repair on the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile.
Brown & Brown (BRO +0.89%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $37.
Marsh & McLennan (MMC +0.64%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $67.
Hirzel Capital reported a 7.3% stake in Hawaiian Holdings (HA -1.37%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.47%) this morning are down -13.25 points (-0.63%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.21%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.24%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on strength in the U.S. labor market after the May ADP employment change rose +201,000, close to expectations of +200,000, and on optimism that a Greek deal may be close. Stocks were undercut by the -2.1 point decline in the May ISM non-manufacturing PMI to a 13-month low of 55.7 (weaker than expectations of -0.8 to 57.0) and by the OECD's cut in its 2015 global growth forecast to 3.1% from Oct's 3.7%.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.06%) this morning are down -7 ticks at a 5-1/4 month low. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -26.50, FVU5 -11.75. Sep 10-year T-notes on Wednesday fell sharply and posted a new 5-month low on (1) carry-over weakness from a plunge in German bund prices to a 7-month low on reduced deflation concerns after the ECB raised its 2015 Eurozone inflation forecast, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.64%) this morning is down -0.678 (-0.71%) at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0080 (+0.71%) at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20 (-0.16%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.370 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.01242 (+1.11%), USD/JPY +0.131 (+0.11%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower on the larger-than-expected -2.1 point drop in the May ISM non-manufacturing PMI to a 13-month low of 55.7 and on strength in EUR/USD after the ECB raised its 2015 Eurozone inflation forecast to +0.3% from 0% in Mar.
July WTI crude oil (CLN15 +0.08%) this morning is up +18 cents (+0.30%). July gasoline (RBN15 +0.06%) is up +0.0030 (+0.15%). Wednesday's closes: CLN5 -1.62 (-2.64%), RBN5 -0.0196 (-0.95%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower on the +0.2% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended May 29 to a 43-year high of 9.586 million bpd and on expectations for OPEC to maintain its production levels when the cartel meets on Friday.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/04/2015
| US | 0730 ET | May Challenger job cuts, Apr +52.8% y/y. |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 278,000, previous +7,000 to 282,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -15,000 to 2.207 million, previous +11,000 to 2.222 million. | |
| 0830 ET | Revised Q1 non-farm productivity expected -3.0%, prelim -1.9%. Revised Q1 unit labor costs expected +6.1%, prelim +5.0%. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Jun 9-11. | |
| 1200 ET | Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks at a financial conference in New York. | |
| GER | 0330 ET | German May Markit construction PMI, Apr 51.0. |
| UK | 0700 ET | BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/04/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navistar International Corp | NAV US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | -0.171 |
| JM Smucker Co/The | SJM US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 0.992 |
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.326 |
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | 6:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.557 |
| L Brands Inc | LB US | 7:30 | May 2015 Sales and Revenue Call | 2015 | |
| JM Smucker Co/The | SJM US | 8:30 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Navistar International Corp | NAV US | 9:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | 9:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Ingersoll-Rand PLC | IR US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| SandRidge Energy Inc | SD US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Cinemark Holdings Inc | CNK US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | 11:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Patterson-UTI Energy Inc | PTEN US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| SL Green Realty Corp | SLG US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Pandora Media Inc | P US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp | LVS US | 15:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Cooper Cos Inc/The | COO US | 16:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.753 |
| Landstar System Inc | LSTR US | 16:00 | Q2 2015 Guidance Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Thor Industries Inc | THO US | 16:15 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.214 |
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY US | 16:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Cooper Cos Inc/The | COO US | 17:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Salesforce.com inc | CRM US | 17:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.425 |
| General Electric Co | GE US | 19:45 | Bell International Leaders Presents Former CEO, Jack Welch | ||
| Gap Inc/The | GPS US | May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 | ||
| L Brands Inc | LB US | May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 | ||
| Questar Corp | STR US | Roadshow - Europe - Day 4 | Y 2015 | ||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | VRTX US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Jarden Corp | JAH US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Priceline Group Inc/The | PCLN US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Concho Resources Inc | CXO US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| CST Brands Inc | CST US | Annual General Meeting |
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