BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, June 25th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.37%) are up +0.48% and European stocks are up +0.49% after Greece put forth a revised plan to stave off default and an EU official expressed optimism that the Greek plan can be a basis for a deal. Eurozone finance ministers will meet later today in Brussels to decide if the new Greek plan meets the criteria of creditors. The 10-year yield on the Greek bond rose 14 bp to 10.94% after the ECB decided today to leave the ceiling of maximum funds available to Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) unchanged. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.46%, Hong Kong -0.95%, China -3.46%, Taiwan +0.84%, Australia -0.95%, Singapore -0.04%, South Korea -0.45%, India +0.60%. China's Shanghai Composite closed sharply lower on concern valuations have risen to unsustainable levels and a flood of initial public offerings were taking funds away from existing equities.
Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.32%) is down -0.38%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.11%) is up +0.25%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.06%) is down -0.01%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.42%) is down -0.69%. Agricultural prices are mixed.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is little changed, up +0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.16%) are down -8.5 ticks as a rally in stocks undercuts demand for Treasuries.
Greek Prime Minister Tsipras wrapped up an emergency session with the ECB, the IMF, and the European Commission and then put forth a revised proposal to stave off default. Eurozone finance ministers will meet later today in Brussels and will study the new Greek plan to see if it meets the terms laid out by creditors.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +6,000 to 273,000 after last week's -12,000 to 267,000) and continuing claims (expected -4,000 to 2.218 million after last week's -50,000 to 2.222 million), (2) May personal income and spending (expected +0.5% and +0.7%, respectively, after April's +0.4 and unchanged), (3) May PCE deflator (expected +0.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y after April's unch m/m and +0.1% y/y) and May PCE core deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y after April's +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y), (4) Jun Markit services PMI (expected +0.3 to 56.5 after May's -1.2 to 56.2), (5) June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (expected +4 to -9 after May's -6 to -13), and (6) the Treasury's auction of $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Accenture (consensus $1.23), NIKE (0.83), Micron Technology (0.57).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Alder Biopharmaceuticals (ALDR), Seres Therapeutics (MCRB), Alarm.com (ALRM), Appfolio (APPF), Xactly (XTLY), Innvovation Economy Corp (MYIE), Pieris Pharmaceuticals (PIRS), NN Inc (NNBR).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Accenture (ACN -0.49%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.30, higher than consensus of $1.23.
Eli Lilly (LLY -0.50%) and AT&T (T -0.36%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merril Lynch.
Office Depot (ODP -2.41%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Telsey Advisory.
Netflix (NFLX -0.38%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
CenturyLink (CTL -2.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Finish Line (FINL +0.82%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
Amazon.com (AMZN -1.15%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
Marathon Oil (MRO unch) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK -1.95%) and Murphy Oil (MUR +0.30%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -0.84%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $575.
Cree (CREE -1.55%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q4 revenue to approximately $375 million from $420 million-$440 million, below consensus of $430.82 million.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -0.58%) reported Q1 EPS of 93 cents, below consensus of 94 cents.
Steelcase (SCS unch) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 15 cents.
Herman Miller (MLHR +0.77%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.37%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.48%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.74%, Dow Jones -0.98%, Nasdaq -0.53. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed lower on the deadlock in the Greek crisis and weakness in bank stocks after Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were both downgraded at Deutsche Bank. A supportive factor was the upward revision in U.S. Q1 GDP to -0.2% from -0.7% and the upward revision in Q1 personal consumption to +2.1% from +1.8%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.16%) this morning are down -8.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 +9.00, FVU5 +5.50. Sep T-notes on Wednesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the Greek deadlock and the sell-off in the stock market.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.018 (+0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18 (-0.15%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.168 (-0.18%), EUR/USD +0.00374 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.089 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on technical weakness after the failure to take out Tuesday's 1-week high, and on the sell-off in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.32%) this morning is down -23 cents (-0.38%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.11%) is up +0.0050 (+0.25%). Wednesday's closes: CLQ5 -0.74 (-1.21%), RBQ5 -0.0182 (-0.89%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower on the +680,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles (more than expectations for no change) and the +1.84 million bbl increase in EIA distillate supplies (more than expectations of +700,000 bbl). Crude oil found support as EIA crude inventories fell -4.93 million bbl, more than expectations of -1.5 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/25/2015

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 273,000, previous -12,000 to 267,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 2.218 million, previous -50,000 to 2.222 million.
	0830 ET	May personal spending expected +0.7%, Apr unch. May personal income expected +0.5%, Apr +0.4%.
	0830 ET	May PCE deflator expected +0.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Apr unch m/m and +0.1% y/y. May PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0945 ET	Jun Markit services PMI expected +0.3 to 56.5, May -1.2 to 56.2. Jun Markit composite PMI, May -1.0 to 56.0.
	1100 ET	Jun Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected +4 to -9, May -6 to -13.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
GER	0200 ET	German Jul GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 10.2.
UK	0600 ET	UK Jun CBI reported sales expected -16 to 35, May 51.
JPN	1930 ET	Japan May jobless rate expected unch at 3.3%. May job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.17.
	1930 ET	Japan May overall household spending expected +3.6% y/y, Apr -1.3% y/y.
	1930 ET	Japan May national CPI expected +0.4% y/y, Apr +0.6% y/y. May national CPI ex-fresh food expected unch y/y, Apr +0.3% y/y. May national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.4% y/y, Apr +0.4% y/y.
	1930 ET	Japan Jun Tokyo CPI expected +0.5% y/y, May +0.5% y/y. Jun Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.1% y/y, May +0.2% y/y. Jun Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% y/y, May +0.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/25/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Accenture PLC	ACN US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.229
Delta Air Lines Inc	DAL US	7:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Accenture PLC	ACN US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Kroger Co/The	KR US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
SLM Corp	SLM US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
NIKE Inc	NKE US	16:15	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.833
Micron Technology Inc	MU US	16:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
NIKE Inc	NKE US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Micron Technology Inc	MU US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.572
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - Texas Day 2	Y 2015
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US		Annual General Meeting
Chico's FAS Inc	CHS US		Annual General Meeting