Tuesday, May 5, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/5

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.15%) this morning are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.18% on Greek default concerns after the Financial Times reported that the IMF told Eurozone creditors that it may reduce support to Greece unless European lenders write off a "significant" amount of Greece's sovereign debt. The yield on Greece's 10-year bond jumped 50 bp on the news to 11.10%. Losses in European stocks were limited, though, after the European Commission raised its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from 1.3% predicted in Feb. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan and South Korea closed for holiday, Hong Kong -1.31%, China -4.06%, Taiwan -0.25%, Australia -0.02%, Singapore -0.33%, India -0.18%. China's Shanghai Composite Index tumbled over 4% to a 2-week low amid concern the government will introduce measures to cool the market after the Securities Times reported that China may increase the stamp tax on stock trading to boost fiscal revenue. The Shanghai Composite may be in for a correction as it has surged over 113% in the past year to last Tuesday's 7-year high.
Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM15 +1.65%) is up +0.83% and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.84%) is up +0.29%. Metals prices are mixed. Jun gold (GCM15 +0.43%) is up +0.07%. Jul copper (HGN15 +0.02%) is up +0.45% at a 4-1/2 month high. Agriculture prices are weaker with Jul corn down -1.11% at a new 6-month low after Monday's USDA Crop Progress report showed the pace of U.S. corn planting accelerated.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21% at a 3-week high.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.11%) are unchanged.
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its key benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to a record low of 2.00% from 2.25%. RBA Governor Stevens said that "the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand."
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. reports today include: (1) the March U.S. trade deficit (expected -$41.5 billion after Feb's -$35.4 billion), (2) the final-Apr Markit services PMI (expected unrevised at 57.8 after the prelim-April -1.4 to 57.8), (3) the Apr ISM non-manufacturing index (expected -0.4 to 56.1 after March's -0.4 to 56.5), and (4) Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota's comments at a public town forum at Southwest State University.
There are 29 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Disney (1.10), Kellogg (0.92), Allstate (1.44), ADM (0.71), Emerson Electric (0.76), Directv (1.54).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Multivir (MVIR), Gelesis (GLSS), ClubCorp (MYCC), Acadia Healthcare (ACHC).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Chemical ROC Stars Conference on Tue, Internet & Television Expo on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Industrial and Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Baird Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Power & Electricity World Asia 2015 on Wed, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Energy Conference on Wed, Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, ICI General Membership Meeting on Wed-Thu, Citi Car of the Future Conference on Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Conference on Thu, and RBC Capital Markets Mobile & Cloud Networking Investor Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE +0.34%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.91, weaker than consensus of $2.96.
DirecTV (DTV -0.01%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.44, below consensus of $1.54.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM +1.08%) reported Q1 EPS of 77 cents, above consensus of 71 cents.
AmeriGas (APU -0.04%) reported Q2 EPS of $2.17, weaker than consensus of $2.51.
MDU Resources (MDU -0.67%) reported Q1 EPS of 12 cents, well below consensus of 19 cents.
KapStone (KS -0.56%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 30 cents, below consensus of 41 cents.
Vornado (VNO +0.09%) reported Q1 FFO of $1.16, weaker than consensus of $1.19.
DaVita (DVA -0.07%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $3.29 billion was better than consensus of $3.25 billion.
Starboard Value reported an 8.2% stake in Brink's (BCO +1.06%) .
EOG Resources (EOG +0.50%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 3 cents, higher than consensus of 0 cents, although Q1 revenue of $2.32 billion was below consensus of $2.71 billion.
Avis Budget (CAR +0.78%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.
Tenet (THC +3.80%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, more than double consensus of 32 cents.
Fidelity National (FNF +1.23%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 32 cents.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +0.27%) reported Q1 EPS of 46 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents, although Q1 revenue of $460.23 million was below consensus of $465.37 million.
Ingram Micro (IM +0.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 43 cents, below consensus of 44 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.15%) this morning are down -3.00 points (-0.14%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.29%, Dow Jones +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.08%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed higher on the +2.1% increase in U.S. Mar factory orders (slightly stronger than expectations of +2.0%) and general optimism that Q1 earnings reports have been better than expected on average.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.11%) this morning are unch. Monday's closes: TYM5 -0.05, FVM5 +1.25. Jun T-bonds Monday fell to a new 1-1/2 month low on continued carry-over weakness from the recent sharp sell-off in bund prices, and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar factory orders reporty of +2.1%. T-note prices received some support from Chicago Fed President Evans' comment that it probably will not be appropriate for the Fed to begin raising interest rates until "sometime in early 2016."
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is up +0.094 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25 (+0.21%) at a 3-week high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.183 (+0.19%), EUR/USD -0.00491 (-0.44%), USD/JPY -0.046 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar factory orders report of +2.1% and weakness in EUR/USD on Greek default concerns as Greek-Eurozone negotiators seem to be making little progress.
Jun WTI crude oil (CLM15 +1.65%) this morning is up +49 cents (+0.83%) and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.84%) is up+0.0058 (+0.29%). Monday's closes: CLM5 -0.22 (-0.37%), RBM5 -0.0118 (-0.58%). Jun crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower on the stronger dollar and on continued worries about the global crude oil supply glut.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/05/2015
US0830 ETMar trade balance expected -$41.5 billion, Feb -$35.4 billion.
0945 ETFinal-Apr Markit services PMI expected unrevised at 57.8, prelim-April -1.4 to 57.8. Revised Apr Markit composite PMI, prelim-Apr -1.8 to 57.4.
1000 ETApr ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.4 to 56.1, Mar -0.4 to 56.5.
2000 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota holds a public town forum at Southwest State University.
UK0430 ETUK Apr Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected -0.4 to 57.4, Mar 57.8.
1901 ETUK Apr BRC shop price index expected -1.7% y/y, Mar -2.1% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Mar PPI expected +0.3% m/m and -2.3% y/y, Feb +0.5% m/m and -2.8% y/y.
0500 ETEuropean Commission economic forecasts.
JPNn/aJapanese markets closed for Childrens Day.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/05/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Pentair PLCPNR US3:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Archer-Daniels-Midland CoADM USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.711
Emerson Electric CoEMR USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.76
HCP IncHCP USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.782
Noble Energy IncNBL USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.016
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.826
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.511
DIRECTVDTV USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.54
HCA Holdings IncHCA USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.35
Mallinckrodt PLCMNK USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.515
Harris CorpHRS US6:30Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.257
Fastenal CoFAST US7:00April 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.392
Zoetis IncZTS US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.365
Intercontinental Exchange IncICE US7:30Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20152.957
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.1
Kellogg CoK US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.916
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/TheDNB US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Harris CorpHRS US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Intercontinental Exchange IncICE US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Discovery Communications IncDISCA US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Discover Financial ServicesDFS US8:30Financial Community MeetingY 2015
Mallinckrodt PLCMNK US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Zoetis IncZTS US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Archer-Daniels-Midland CoADM US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
DaVita HealthCare Partners IncDVA US9:00Capital Markets Day - Q1 2015 EarningsY 2015
Sempra EnergySRE US9:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.379
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US9:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Kellogg CoK US9:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Sysco CorpSYY US9:30Sysco Hearing vs. the FTC's Bid to Block Proposed Acquisition of US Foods Inc.
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/TheEL US9:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Baxter International IncBAX US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Kimco Realty CorpKIM US10:00Annual General Meeting
Tenet Healthcare CorpTHC US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Noble Energy IncNBL US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Vornado Realty TrustVNO US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Vulcan Materials CoVMC US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Boston Scientific CorpBSX US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
EOG Resources IncEOG US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Leggett & Platt IncLEG US11:00Annual General Meeting
Tractor Supply CoTSCO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Cimarex Energy CoXEC US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
HCA Holdings IncHCA US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
HCP IncHCP US12:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Ecolab IncECL US12:30Analyst PresentationY 2015
Sempra EnergySRE US13:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Emerson Electric CoEMR US14:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC US14:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Nordstrom IncJWN US14:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
DIRECTVDTV US14:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US14:30Annual General Meeting
Allstate Corp/TheALL US16:05Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.437
Frontier Communications CorpFTR US16:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Mylan NVMYL US16:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Fossil Group IncFOSL US16:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
News CorpNWSA US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
CenturyLink IncCTL US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Electronic Arts IncEA US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Fiserv IncFISV US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
CenturyLink IncCTL USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.583
Frontier Communications CorpFTR USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.042
Mylan NVMYL USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.706
ONEOK IncOKE USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.358
Electronic Arts IncEA USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.258
Fiserv IncFISV USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.862
Fossil Group IncFOSL USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.689
Newfield Exploration CoNFX USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.081
Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.056
Devon Energy CorpDVN USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.248
Assurant IncAIZ USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.625
News CorpNWSA USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.072
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY USBristol-Myers Squibb Co. New CEO, Giovanni Caforio, Takes Over
Plum Creek Timber Co IncPCL USAnnual General Meeting
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL USAnnual General Meeting
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY USAnnual General Meeting
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH USAnnual General Meeting
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT USAnnual General Meeting
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