Thursday, March 19th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.05% ahead of weekly U.S. jobless claims and the monthly Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey. European stocks are up +0.28% as they catch-up to yesterday's rally in U.S. equities after the Fed signaled it will proceed slowly when raising interest rates. Gains in European stocks were limited as Greece negotiates with its creditors to avoid default as its funding options dwindle. The yield on the Greek 10-year bond rose to a 1-1/2 year high of 11.51% after the ECB raised the maximum amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek lenders by 400 million euros, less than the 900 million euros requested by the Greek central bank. Greece faces more than 2 billion euros in debt payments on Friday, and government salaries and pensions must be paid at the end of this month. Meanwhile, the action by the FOMC on Wednesday to lower their estimate for U.S. interest rates sparked a rally in German bunds that sent the 10-year bund yield down to an all-time low of 0.170%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.35%, Hong Kong +1.45%, China -0.16%, Taiwan +0.86%, Australia +1.86%, Singapore +0.73%, South Korea +0.30%, India -0.53%. Japanese stocks retreated after the yen jumped to a 2-1/2 week high against the dollar on Wednesday, which undercut the earnings prospects for exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -3.78%) is down -3.11%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.43%) is down -0.94%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +1.09%) is up +1.09% at a 2-1/2 week high after the Fed yesterday signaled a slow pace of tightening. May copper (HGK15 +2.86%) is up +2.49%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -1.58%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.41%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.04%) are up +0.5 of a tick at a 1-1/4 month high.The ECB raised the maximum amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek banks by 400 million euros ($435 million), less than the 900 million euros requested by the Greek central bank. Greek banks were cut off from regular ECB funding operations in Feb, forcing them onto Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the Greek central bank. The 400 million euro increase from the ECB takes the ELA to near 70 billion euros.
Eurozone Q4 labor costs rose +1.1% y/y, a smaller increase than the upward revised +1.4% y/y increase in Q3 that was originally reported at +1.3% y/y.
The Japan Jan all-industry activity index rose +1.9% m/m, right on expectations and the largest increase in 3-3/4 years.
Japan Feb nationwide department store sales rose +1.1% y/y, the first increase in 11 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a +4,000 increase to 293,000 and for continuing claims to show a -18,000 decline to 2.400 million. Today’s Feb leading indicators report is expected to show a +0.2% increase, thereby matching January’s increase of +0.2%. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 10-year TIPS. There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: NIKE (consensus $0.85), Lennar (0.45), Tech Data (2.03), Michaels Companies (0.74). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Conference on Tue-Thu, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Diseases and Related Neurological Disorders (AD/PD) on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tech Data (TECD +1.50%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.96, below consensus of $2.03.Lennar (LEN +1.76%) reported Q1 EPS of 50 cents, above consensus of 45 cents.
Newmont Mining (NEM +3.39%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at HSBC.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 5.1% passive stake in Dynegy (DYN +3.07%) .
Aetna (AET +1.97%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee.
Cintas (CTAS +1.06%) reported Q3 EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.31-$3.34 from $3.20-$3.25, above consensus of $3.27.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN -1.33%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Brean Capital with a price target of $174.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS +2.74%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Brean Capital with a price target of $65.
MGM Resorts (MGM +3.59%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Brean Capital with a price target of $27.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM -3.47%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $1.52, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.35-$3.45, well below consensus of $3.63.
Guess (GES -2.45%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, above consensus of 57 cents.
Jabil Circuit (JBL +0.04%) reported Q2 core EPS of 50 cents, stronger than consensus of 45 cents.
Cerner (CERN +0.39%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at RW Baird.
Smart & Final Stores (SFS +0.06%) raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to 67 cents-70 cents, above consensus of 63 cents.
Herman Miller (MLHR +0.45%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 34 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.06%) this morning are down -1.00 point (-0.05%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday shook off early losses and rallied to a 2-week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +1.22%, Dow Jones +1.27%, Nasdaq +1.07%. The main bullish factor was speculation the Fed will be slow to raise rates when it said economic growth “moderated somewhat” and reduced its 2015 year-end federal funds rate median forecast to 0.625% from Dec’s 1.125%.Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick at a new 1-1/4 month high. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday rose to a 1-1/4 month high and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +1-2/32 points, FVM5 +23.50. Bullish factors included (1) the FOMC’s cut in its U.S, GDP and PCE inflation estimates following the conclusion of its 2-day policy meeting, and (2) the FOMC’s cut in its 2015 year-end federal funds rate median estimate to 0.625% from Dec’s 1.125%, which signals a slower pace of tightening than previously expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.178 (+0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0172 (-1.58%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.49 (+0.41%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -1.035 (-1.04%), EUR/USD +0.02655 (+2.51%), USD/JPY -1.259 (-1.04%). Bearish factors included (1) the FOMC’s cut in its U.S. 2015 GDP estimate and its year-end fed funds forecast, and (2) the post-FOMC statement saying that the Fed won’t begin to raise interest rates until it is confident that inflation will move back toward its 2.0% target and the labor market improves further.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -3.78%) this morning is down -$1.39 a barrel (-3.11%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.43%) is down -0.0169 (-0.94%). Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher: CLJ5 +1.20 (+2.76), RBJ5 +0.0765 (+4.42%). Apr crude recovered from a 6-year low and both crude and gasoline closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low, and (2) the -4.47 million bbl decline in EIA gasoline inventories, a bigger drop than expectations of -900,000 bbl. Crude prices posted a 6-year low after EIA crude stockpiles jumped +9.62 million bbl to a record 458.5 million bbl (data from 1982), much more than expectations for a +4.4 million bbl build.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/19/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 293,000, previous -36,000 to 289,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -18,000 to 2.400 million, previous -5,000 to 2.418 million. |
| 0830 ET | Q4 current account balance expected -$104.1 billion, Q3 -$100.3 billion. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1000 ET | Mar Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +1.8 to 7.0, Feb -1.1 to 5.2. | |
| 1000 ET | Feb leading indicators expected +0.2%, Jan +0.2%. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Mar 25-26. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $13 billion 10-year TIPS. | |
| JPN | 0030 ET | Japan Jan all-industry activity index expected +1.9% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m. |
| EUR | 0600 ET | Eurozone Q4 labor costs, Q3 +1.3%y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/19/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lennar Corp | LEN US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.45 |
| Tech Data Corp | TECD US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 2.033 |
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 0.743 |
| Mallinckrodt PLC | MNK US | 5:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Tech Data Corp | TECD US | 9:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Michaels Cos Inc/The | MIK US | 9:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Lennar Corp | LEN US | 11:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Keysight Technologies Inc | KEYS US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Two Harbors Investment Corp | TWO US | 13:15 | Analyst & Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| NIKE Inc | NKE US | 16:15 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.845 |
| NIKE Inc | NKE US | 17:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Platform Specialty Products Corp | PAH US | Investor and Analyst Day | Y 2015 |
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