Monday, February 23rd, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.20%) this morning are down -0.20% as they consolidate Friday's rally to an all-time high, while European stocks are up +0.26% at a 6-1/2 year high after Greece received a 4-month extension on its bailout. The Greek government has until the end of the day today to complete a list of policies in return for continued funding. The Eurozone finance ministers will then meet and decide whether the Greek policies go far enough or trigger another round of emergency negotiations this week. European stocks fell back from their best levels after the German Feb IFO business confidence rose less than expected. The extension of bailout funds to Greece also fueled a rally in Italian and Portuguese government bonds that sent their yields falling to record lows. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.73%, Australia +0.45%, Singapore -0.42%, South Korea +0.17%, India -0.88%, China and Taiwan closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 14-3/4 year high as the positive news on a Greek debt deal lifted most global stocks. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -3.01%) is down -2.40% at a 1-week low and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.91%) is down -0.85%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.79%) is down -0.87%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.64%) is down -0.79%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.52%) is up +0.56% at a 1-week high on speculation that Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to Congress tomorrow will be dollar supportive. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.60%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unchanged. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.12%) are up +3.5 ticks.The German Feb IFO business climate rose +0.1 to 106.8, less than expectations of +1.0 to 107.7 but still the highest in 7 months. The Feb IFO current assessment unexpectedly fell -0.4 to 111.3, weaker than expectations of +0.8 to 112.5. The Feb IFO expectations rose +0.5 to 102.5, less than expectations of +1.0 to 103.0.
The UK Feb CBI reported sales slumped -38 to 1, a much bigger decline than expectations of -4 to 35 and the lowest in 15 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan existing home sales report is expected to show a decline of -1.8% to 4.95 million, giving back most of December’s +2.4% increase to 5.04 million. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tenet Healthcare (consensus $1.19), ONEOK (0.35), and Express Scripts (1.38).Equity conferences this week include: JPMorgan High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, Cantor Fitzgerald 2nd Annual Internet and Technology Conference on Tue, Susquehanna Semi, Storage & Tech Summit on Tue, Credit Suisse Energy Summit on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Robert W. Baird Business Solutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Cyber Security Forum on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, Auerbach Grayson & Morgan Stanley's Inaugural Frontier Markets Conference on Thu, Gabelli & Company Pump, Valve & Water Systems Symposium on Thu, Gabelli & Company Inaugural Waste & Environmental Services Symposium on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Precision Castparts (PCP +2.53%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.Boeing (BA +2.97%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Raytheon (RTN +0.75%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Buckingham.
AerCap (AER +1.42%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.30.
Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.04%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
CSX (CSX +0.06%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $41.
Penn National (PENN -1.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Honda (HMC +0.42%) announced that Takanobu Ito is stepping down as president and CEO of Honda and Takahiro Hachigo, Honda's managing officer, will take over as president and CEO in June.
CyberArk (CYBR +9.44%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
LabCorp (LH +3.36%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
Antofagasta (ANFGY +2.00%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
DirecTV (DTV +0.06%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Brean Capital.
Rio Tinto (RIO +0.67%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.54%) was awarded a $1.01 billion government contract for aviation turbine fuel.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.20%) this morning are down -4.25 points (-0.20%). The S&P 500 index on Friday rose to a new all-time high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.61%, Dow Jones +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.71%. Bullish factors included (1) optimism about a Eurozone agreement with Greece to keep bailout funds flowing to Greece, and (2) signs of strength in the U.S. economy after the U.S. Feb Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.4 to 54.3, better than expectations of -0.3 to 53.6.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.12%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -6.00, FVH5 -4.75. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Feb Markit manufacturing PMI, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.52%) this morning is up +0.529 (+0.56%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0068 (-0.60%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unchanged. The dollar index on Friday fell back from a 1-week high and closed lower: Dollar index -0.095 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00087 (+0.08%), USD/JPY +0.026 (+0.02%). The main bearish factor was a rebound in EUR/USD, which recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher after Eurozone finance ministers reached a deal to extend bailout funds to Greece for four months in return for a commitment on budget targets. The dollar had risen to a 1-week high on bullish factors that included (1) the unexpected increase in the U.S. Feb Markit manufacturing PMI, and (2) early weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-week low after the Eurozone Feb Markit manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected and German Jan producer prices fell more than expected.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -3.01%) this morning is down -$1.22 a barrel (-2.40%) at a 1-week low and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.91%) is down -0.0156 (-0.85%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed: CLJ5 -1.02 (-1.97%), RBJ5 +0.0049 (+0.27%). The main bearish factor was ample supplies after Wednesday’s EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories at their highest level since weekly EIA data began in 1982. Gasoline closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) the ongoing strike by the United Steelworkers union that represents more than 30,000 oil refinery workers and 13% of U.S. refining output, which may reduce gasoline and distillate production, and (2) frigid weather in the U.S. Northeast that boosted demand for heating fuels and also shuttered two refineries in Pennsylvania because of the sub-zero cold.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/23/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Jan Chicago national activity index expected +0.10 to 0.05, Dec -0.05. |
| 1000 ET | Jan existing home sales expected -1.8% to 4.95 million, Dec +2.4% to 5.04 million. | |
| 1030 ET | Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook level of general business activity expected +0.4 to -4.0, Jan -7.9 to -4.4. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| GER | 0400 ET | German Feb IFO business climate expected +1.0 to 107.7, Jan 106.7. Feb IFO current assessment expected +0.8 to 112.5, Jan 111.7. Feb IFO expectations expected +1.0 to 103.0, Jan 102.0. |
| UK | 0600 ET | UK Feb CBI reported sales expected -4 to 35, Jan 39. |
| JPN | 1850 ET | Japan Jan PPI services expected +3.6% y/y, Dec +3.6% y/y. |
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