Wednesday, October 8, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/8

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.25%) this morning are up +0.12% as prices recover slightly from Tuesday's slide, while European stocks are down -0.32% at a 1-1/2 month low on global economic concerns after the IMF yesterday cut its global GDP forecast. The markets await today's minutes of the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting to gauge the timing of any Fed interest rate increase. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.19%, Hong Kong -0.68%, China +1.12%, Taiwan -0.95%, Australia -0.81%, Singapore -0.53%, South Korea -0.63%, India -0.10%. China reopened after a week-long holiday and the Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 year high as property developers rallied after the PBOC eased real-estate curbs last week and said it will allow a broader range of home buyers access to lower down payments and mortgage rates. This action marks a reversal of a 4-year tightening campaign by the PBOC as China tries to spur a pickup in the housing market in an attempt to boost economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.78%) is down -1.04% at a 17-1/2 month low on concerns over weak demand and excess supplies after the IMF cut its global 2015 GDP forecast and the API reported a +5.1 million bbl surge in crude inventories yesterday. Nov gasoline (RBX14 -1.43%) is down -1.69% at a 3-3/4 year low. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.39%) is up +0.44%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.18%) is down -0.21%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 unch) are up +1 tick at a 1-3/4 month high on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds as the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 5-week low of 0.884%.
Japan Sep eco watchers survey current was unch at 47.4, weaker than expectations of +1.1 to 48.5. The Sep eco watchers survey outlook fell -1.7 to 48.7, the lowest in 6 months.
Japan Sep bankruptcies rose +0.85% y/y, the first increase in 5 months.
The UK Sep Halifax house prices rose +0.6%, a faster pace of increase than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Sep Halifax house prices rose +9.6% y/y, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week’s $61 billion coupon package by selling $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.22), Costco (1.52), RPM International (0.78), Monsanto (-0.24). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: 2014 IIF Annual Membership Meeting on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Costco Wholesale (COST -0.74%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.58, better than consensus of $1.52.
McKesson (MCK -1.51%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Citigroup with a price target of $235.
RPM (RPM -2.37%) reported Q1 EPS of 73 cents, weaker than consensus of 79 cents.
EOG Resources (EOG -1.56%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
Juniper (JNPR -1.71%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at MKM Partners.
National Oilwell Varco (NOV +0.20%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at HSBC.
Ryland Group (RYL -1.33%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Bloomberg reports that Symantec (SYMC -1.36%) is in advanced talks to split the company in two.
TheStreet (TST +1.38%) jumped 5% in after-hours trading after it announced it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Management Diagnostics for $21 million.
Allergan (AGN +1.68%) rose over 2% and Valeant (VRX -2.48%) climbed nearly 4% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that Valeant is planning to boost its bid for Allergan.
Walter Energy (WLT -7.18%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Yum! Brands (YUM -2.31%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 87 cents, weaker than consensus of 89 cents and said its Q3 China same-store-sales plunged -14%.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.25%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.51%, Dow Jones -1.60%, Nasdaq -1.44%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on European economic concerns after German Aug industrial production fell -4.0% m/m, a larger drop than expectations of -1.5% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 5-1/2 years, (2) global growth concerns after the IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to +3.8% from a July forecast of +4.0%, citing the risks of geopolitical tensions and a financial-market correction as stocks reach “frothy” levels.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 unch)this morning are up +1 tick at a new 1-3/4 month high. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday rose to a 1-3/4 month high and closed higher. Supportive factors for T-notes included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European government bonds after European and U.S. stocks fell when German Aug industrial production fell by the most in 5-1/2 years, and (2) global economic concerns after the IMF lowered its global 2015 GDP forecast to +3.8% from July’s +4.0% estimate. Closes: TYZ4 +19.00, FVZ4 +9.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.042 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26 (+0.24%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. A bearish factor for the dollar was strength in the yen as USD/JPY pushed up to a 2-1/2 week high after the BOJ refrained from additional easing measures following Tuesday’s 2-day policy meeting. Bullish factors for the dollar included weakness in EUR/USD after German Aug industrial production fell more than expected and by the most in 5-1/2 years and (2) the IMF’s hike in its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to +2.2% from July estimate of +1.7%. Closes: Dollar index -0.256 (-0.30%), EUR/USD +0.00139 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.753 (-0.69%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.78%) this morning is down -92 cents a barrel (-1.04%) at a 17-1/2 month low and Nov gasoline (RBX14 -1.43%) is down -0.0401 (-1.69%) at a 3-3/4 year low. Nov crude and Nov gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Nov gasoline at a 3-3/4 year low: CLX4 -1.49 (-1.65%), RBXX4 -0.0684 (-2.83%). Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected drop in German Aug industrial production by the most in 5-1/2 years,, (2) the IMF’s cut in its 2015 global GDP forecast to +3.8% from July’s estimate of +4.0%, and (3) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to climb +2.0 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/08/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.2% with purchase sub-index unch and refi sub-index -0.3%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETMinutes of the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting.
n/aG-20 finance ministers and central bank governors hold a 3-day meeting in Washington D.C.
JPN0030 ETJapan Sep bankruptcies, Aug -11.23% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Sep eco watchers survey current expected +1.1 to 48.5, Aug 47.4. Sep eco watchers survey outlook, Aug 50.4.
0100 ETBOJ monthly economic report for Oct.
1950 ETJapan Aug machine orders expected +0.5% m/m and -4.9% y/y, Jul +3.5% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
UK0430 ETBOE credit conditions survey.
1901 ETUK Sep RICS house price balance expected 36%, Aug 40%.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/08/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST US3:01Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.523
RPM International IncRPM USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.783
Monsanto CoMON USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2014-0.241
Alcoa IncAA USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.224
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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