Thursday, October 23, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/23

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.48%) this morning are up +0.23% and European stocks are down -0.21%. European stocks declined as disappointing earnings results from Unilever and Michelin outweighed positive economic data that showed Oct manufacturing activity in China and Europe unexpectedly expanded. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.37%, Hong Kong -0.30%, China -0.94%, Taiwan -0.20%, Australia -0.05%, Singapore +1.05%, South Korea -0.30%, India closed for holiday. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-month low on concern a planned trading link between China and Hong Kong will be delayed after Reuters reported that major banks and money managers asked the Hong Kong securities regulator to delay the start of the trading link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges because of uncertainty over rules. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil(CLZ14 +0.24%) is up +0.29%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.20%) is up +0.23%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.72%) is down -0.52%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.36%) is up +0.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.15%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33% at a 1-1/2 week high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.09%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The China Oct HSBC manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed +0.2 to 50.4, a faster pace of expansion than expectations of unchanged at 50.2.
The German Oct Markit/BME manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.9 to 51.8, a faster pace of expansion than expectations of -0.4 to 49.5.
The Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.4 to 50.7, a faster pace of expansion than expectations of -0.4 to 49.9.
The Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI rose +1.1 to 52.8, better than expectations of unch at 51.7 and the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
UK Oct CBI trends total orders unexpectedly fell -2 to -6, weaker than expectations of +1 to -3 and the lowest in 15 months. Oct BI trends selling prices fell -4 to -3, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0. Oct CBI business optimism fell -11 to 8, a bigger decline than expectations of -4 to 15 and the lowest in 15 months.
UK Sep retail sales ex autos unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m and rose +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and +3.4% y/y. Sep retail sales including autos fell -0.3% m/m and rose +2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The markets are expecting a mixed report today with initial claims rising +17,000, reversing most of last week’s -23,000 decline, and with continued claims falling -9,000 after last week’s rise of +7,000. The market is expecting today’s Aug FHFA house price index to show an increase of +0.3% m/m, adding to the +0.1% increase seen in July. The market is expecting today’s Sep leading indicators report to show a sharp increase of +0.7%, adding to the +0.2% increase seen in August.
There are 45 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Microsoft (consensus $0.55), Amazon (-$0.75), GM (0.95), Caterpillar (1.34), PulteGroup (0.36), Coca-Cola Enterprises (0.88), Comcast (0.71), Raytheon (1.60), VeriSign (0.69). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Latin Markets Private Wealth Latin America and the Caribbean Forum on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE -0.79%) reported Q3 EPS of 92 cents, better than consensus of 88 cents.
Celgene (CELG -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 97 cents, higher than consensus of 95 cents.
Precision Castparts (PCP -2.05%) reported Q2 EPS of $3.24, weaker than consensus of $3.32.
Eli Lilly (LLY unch) reported Q3 EPS of 66 cents, below consensus of 67 cents.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY -0.97%) gained over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $2.06, stronger than consensus of $1.95, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to$7.19-$7.23, better than consensus of $7.15.
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE -0.34%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 48 cents, less than consensus of 57 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.07-$2.11, weaker than consensus of $2.21.
Lam Research (LRCX -1.82%) reported Q1 EPS of 96 cents, better than consensus of 93 cents.
Everest Re (RE +0.07%) reported Q3 EPS of $6.00, well above consensus of $4.79.
C.R. Bard (BCR -0.83%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.15, stronger than consensus of $2.10, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $8.34-$8.38 from $8.25-$8.35, better than consensus of $8.31.
Skechers (SKX +0.92%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.00, higher than consensus of 93 cents.
Plexus (PLXS -2.18%) reported Q4 EPS of 77 cents, below consensus of 78 cents.
Tractor Supply (TSCO -0.26%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 55 cents, better than consensus of 50 cents.
AT&T (T -0.35%) dropped 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 63 cents, less than consensus of 64 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 revenue growth view to 3%-4% from 5%.
Albemarle (ALB -2.28%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.14, higher than consensus of $1.02.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.48%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.23%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high early but fell back and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.73%, Dow Jones -0.92%, Nasdaq -0.55%. Bearish factors included (1) terrorism concerns that fueled long liquidation in stocks after the Canadian Parliament was locked down when a Canadian soldier was shot at a war memorial in Ottawa and “multiple suspects” were reported loose inside the parliament building, and (2) a slide in energy producers after crude prices fell. The S&P 500 had posted a 1-1/2 week high on strong stock earnings results as 79% of reporting S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimates and 63% have also exceeded sales projections.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday slipped to a 1-week low and closed lower. Closes: TYZ4 -7.50, FVZ4 -5.00. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Sep U.S. CPI, which eases deflation concerns and dampens speculation the Fed will delay in raising interest rates, and (2) carry-over weakness from a slide in German bunds after comments from ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene dampened speculation the ECB will expand monetary easing when he said “it’s too early to say if we’ll adopt additional stimulus measures.”
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0019 (+0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35 (+0.33%) at a 1-1/2 week high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on reduced deflation concerns after U.S Sep CPI rose more than expected, which bolsters the case for Fed interest rate hikes. Closes: Dollar index +0.438 (+0.51%), EUR/USD -0.0068 (-0.53%), USD/JPY +0.146 (+0.14%). EUR/USD remains under pressure on speculation that a slowdown in the Eurozone will prompt the ECB to expand stimulus measures.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 +0.24%) this morning is up +23 cents (+0.29%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.20%) is up +0.0049 (+0.23%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Wednesday closed lower. Closes: CLZ4 -1.97 (-2.39%), RBZ4 -0.0469 (-2.18%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index, (2) the +7.1 million bbl surge in weekly EIA inventories to a 3-month high of 377.7 million bbl, over double expectations of a +3.0 million bbl build, and (3) the +953,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/23/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +17,000 to 281,000, previous -23,000 to 264,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -9,000 to 2.380 million, previous +7,000 to 2.389 million.
0830 ETSep Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.36 to 0.15, Aug -0.21.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETAug FHFA house price index expected +0.3% m/m, Jul +0.1% m/m.
0945 ETPreliminary Oct Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.5 to 57.0, Sep -0.4 to 57.5.
1000 ETSep leading indicators expected +0.7%, Aug +0.2%.
1100 ETOct Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index expected unchanged at 6, Sep +3 to 6.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $29 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Oct 28-30.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $7 billion 30-year TIPS.
GER0330 ETGerman Oct Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.4 to 49.5, Sep 49.9.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Oct Markit composite PMI expected -0.5 to 51.5, Sep 52.0.
1000 ETEurozone Oct consumer confidence expected -0.6 to -12.0, Sep -11.4.
UK0430 ETUK Sep retail sales ex autos expected unch m/m and +3.4% y/y, Aug +0.2% m/m and +4.5% y/y.
0430 ETUK Sep retail sales including autos expected -0.1% and +2.9% y/y, Aug +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
0600 ETUK Oct CBI trends total orders expected +1 to -3, Sep -4. Oct CBI trends selling prices expected +1 to 0, Sep 1.
0600 ETUK Oct CBI business optimism expected -4 to 15, Sep 19.
CHI2130 ETChina Sep property prices.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/23/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Precision Castparts CorpPCP US3:01Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20153.321
Airgas IncARG USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.295
Mead Johnson Nutrition CoMJN USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.904
American Electric Power Co IncAEP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.009
Dr Pepper Snapple Group IncDPS USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.877
Diamond Offshore Drilling IncDO USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.788
Nielsen NVNLSN USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.652
PulteGroup IncPHM USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.364
Bemis Co IncBMS USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.673
T Rowe Price Group IncTROW USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.146
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.161
Southwest Airlines CoLUV USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.531
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.883
Prologis IncPLD USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.461
Lorillard IncLO USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.892
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.075
Union Pacific CorpUNP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.51
EQT CorpEQT USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.501
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.058
Celgene CorpCELG USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.947
General Motors CoGM USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.952
Eli Lilly & CoLLY USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.665
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.301
Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.586
Raytheon CoRTN US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.6
Comcast CorpCMCSA US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.707
Under Armour IncUA US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.399
3M CoMMM US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.961
Caterpillar IncCAT US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.34
Cameron International CorpCAM US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.09
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
CMS Energy CorpCMS US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.385
Nielsen NVNLSN US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
PulteGroup IncPHM US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
CMS Energy CorpCMS US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Equifax IncEFX US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Comcast CorpCMCSA US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Under Armour IncUA US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Union Pacific CorpUNP US8:45Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
3M CoMMM US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
American Electric Power Co IncAEP US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Nucor CorpNUE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.754
Diamond Offshore Drilling IncDO US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Raytheon CoRTN US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Celgene CorpCELG US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Leggett & Platt IncLEG US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Eli Lilly & CoLLY US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mead Johnson Nutrition CoMJN US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cameron International CorpCAM US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Airgas IncARG US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Precision Castparts CorpPCP US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
General Motors CoGM US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
EQT CorpEQT US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Dr Pepper Snapple Group IncDPS US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Bemis Co IncBMS US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Caterpillar IncCAT US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Torchmark CorpTMK US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Prologis IncPLD US12:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Southwest Airlines CoLUV US12:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Nucor CorpNUE US14:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US16:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.717
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US16:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.058
Stericycle IncSRCL US16:02Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.058
VeriSign IncVRSN US16:05Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.688
Altera CorpALTR US16:15Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.372
KLA-Tencor CorpKLAC US16:15Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.463
Cerner CorpCERN US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
VeriSign IncVRSN US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Altera CorpALTR US16:45Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Chubb Corp/TheCB US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Amazon.com IncAMZN US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Stericycle IncSRCL US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Juniper Networks IncJNPR US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
KLA-Tencor CorpKLAC US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Chubb Corp/TheCB USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.949
Southwestern Energy CoSWN USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.521
Flowserve CorpFLS USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.993
Amazon.com IncAMZN USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2014-0.747
Juniper Networks IncJNPR USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.355
Microsoft CorpMSFT USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.551
Cerner CorpCERN USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.422
Microsoft CorpMSFT US17:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals IncREGN USPDUFA, Eylea, branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO)
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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